摘要
区域货币合作是当今世界经济和金融领域的核心问题。对货币合作的研究最早可以追溯到1958年特里芬提出的单一国际货币的理论构想,此后在蒙代尔等学者的不断完善下,形成了现代一系列货币合作研究理论,其中最有代表意义的是最优货币区理论(OCA)。该理论认为,货币合作是一个由低级形态向高级形态演化、由松散型向紧密型发展的动态过程,这个过程也称为“货币一体化”过程,其最高形态是在区域内达成单一货币流动的货币同盟。该理论还认为,货币合作的内在动力来源于货币合作伙伴之间日益紧密的经济关系,同时区域内货币金融政策的更高层次融合,也会带来区域整体的均衡和稳定发展。
货币合作也是一个现实概念。越来越多的国家和地区就加强国际和区域货币合作的必要性和重要性达成了共识,“一个国家,一种货币”的理念逐渐转变为“一个市场,一种货币”的理念,1999年欧元的诞生、“泛美元化”在拉美等国的掀起、东亚地区的经济和货币整合都对此作出了实践的诠释。特别是1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的爆发,极大地提升各经济体对区域货币合作必要性的重视,研究货币合作问题更具有必要性和现实意义。
大陆和台湾同处东亚地区,在区域合作范畴上,海峡两岸货币合作属于东亚货币合作的子区域,但是由于两岸关系的特殊性,在具体研究中两岸货币合作往往被简化处理或直接忽略,到目前为止还没有专门对两岸货币合作领域进行深入分析的论著,也无法形成有力的理论武器指导两岸货币合作实践。另一方面,2008年以来在和平发展主旋律下,两岸初步形成了政经互动局面,商品贸易、人员和资金呈现频繁而热络的互动现象,两岸金融监管合作备忘录(MOU)和货币清算协议签署后,学术界、实业界和广大民众对海峡两岸货币合作的期待日益强烈。在上述背景下,分析海峡两岸货币合作问题,不仅具有理论研究的前瞻性,也极具现实指导意义。
对两岸货币合作的研究,本文是以最优货币区理论为依据,构建了衡量海峡两岸货币合作现实经济基础的研究体系,探讨了两岸向更高阶段进行货币合作的可行性,指出了影响两岸货币合作进程的因素,并在对比分析全球主要区域货币合作实践的基础上,提出了两岸货币合作进程中可能的模式和路径。全文共分七章。第一章导论,介绍研究背景、研究内容和研究方法。第二章理清货币合作的概念、内容和进程,初步分析两岸货币合作的现状和进展。第三章对最优货币区理论和相关文献进行综述。第四章建立了衡量两岸货币合作经济基础的研究体系,分析现阶段两岸货币合作向更高阶段进行的可能性,并甄别了影响货币合作进程的主要经济因素。第五章对比分析了拉美国家“美元化”、欧洲单一货币和东亚货币合作三种实践,总结经验和启示。第六章提出两岸货币合作可能的模式和路径,并提出相关政策建议。第七章是全文主要结论和进一步研究方向。
通过对两岸货币合作进展和经济基础的分析,文章得到如下观点：
一、对海峡两岸货币合作领域的现状和进展分析表明,目前两岸处于货币合作的初级阶段。若向更高层次的货币合作发展,需要克服的诸多问题和困难。其中外部因素和内部政治因素是最主要的影响因素。其影响表现在,以美国为代表的外部因素增加了货币合作的复杂性；东亚货币合作提供了“强政治”突破货币合作中经济障碍的经验；两岸之间政治关系决定了货币合作的走向。
二、依据最优货币区理论,本文构建了衡量两岸货币合作经济基础的研究体系。该体系包括三个研究层次,分别是静态单一指标衡量、静态OCA综合指数模型衡量和动态内生性约束检验。其中,静态单一指标衡量和静态OCA综合指数模型衡量两者的分析结果都表明,当前两岸基本不具备向货币合作较高阶段进行的经济基础和前提。对“内生性”动态模型的检验表明,宏观经济趋同性和以双边贸易联系为指标的经济合作日趋密切状况,两者存在明显正向关系,满足“内生性”假说约束,两岸具备货币合作的长期动态约束条件,这意味着,现阶段货币合作的成本将由建立货币区之后的收益弥补,两岸构建最优货币区从一个较长时期而言仍是最佳选择。
三、通过对两岸货币合作经济基础的考察,本文甄别了影响两岸货币合作的影响因素。其中,两岸经济规模的差异较大和双边贸易联系紧密是最主要的影响因素。更进一步,前者导致了货币合作的成本,后者为货币合作带来了收益。静态分析的结果说明,经济规模差异较大造成的成本超过了贸易紧密带来的收益,从而两岸不具备货币合作向高阶段进行的条件。动态分析结果则说明,静态状态的净成本将由货币区建立后的收益弥补。
四、在货币合作模式和路径选择方面,本文认为人民币可以作为两岸货币合作的核心货币,一方面人民币具备一定的区域影响力,人民币国际化过程使其成为了准国际货币,满足核心货币的要求条件；另一方面人民币国际化和两岸货币合作两者相辅相成、互相促进,选择人民币作为核心货币会进一步丰富两岸货币合作内容,使其进展进行更顺畅。在货币合作路径选择上,笔者认为短期内,两岸应该在建立货币清算机制基础上,继续加强全面的经济联系,建立信息交流机制,组建统一的机构用于协商和讨论金融监控问题,加快建立落实两岸货币互换机制,加大支持两岸经贸往来中使用本币的力度；在中长期,则是推动实现两岸的汇率政策、货币政策的统一,从而达成两岸货币一体化。最后,本文认为贸易领域以人民币结算和在台建立人民币离岸金融中心,是两岸近期货币合作的主要内容,并提出了相关建议。
Regional monetary cooperation is the core issue of the current world economic and financial areas. Research on monetary cooperation can be traced back to1958when Triffin presented the single international monetary theoretical concept. After that, Mundell and other scholars constantly improved the theory, forming a series of modern monetary cooperation theories. One of the most significant representatives is the theory of optimal currency area (OCA). This theory believes that monetary cooperation is dynamic process during which the cooperation evolves from lower form to the higher form, and develops from the loose form to the compact form. This process is also known as the monetary integration process, whose highest form is monetary union that only single currency exists in one region. The theory also believes that the inherent power of monetary cooperation comes from the increasingly close economic relations between the partners; more closely monetary and financial policies integrate in the region, more balanced and stable the region will be.
The Monetary Cooperation is also a reality concept. More and more countries and regions reach a consensus on the necessity and importance of strengthening the international and regional monetary cooperation. The concept of "one country, one currency" gradually transformed into that of "a market, one currency". In1999, the birth of the euro, the pan-dollarization in Latin America and other countries and the region's economic and monetary integration in East Asia has made a practice interpretation. The outbreak of Asian financial crisis in1997and the global financial crisis in2008enhanced the importance and the necessity of regional monetary cooperation greatly. To study the issue of monetary cooperation is more necessary and has practical significance.
Mainland and Taiwan are both at the East Asian region. Cross-Straits' monetary cooperation is the part of East Asia regional cooperation. Due to the special nature of cross-straits relations, currency cooperation studies are often simplified or ignored. There is no in-depth analysis devoted to cross-straits'currency cooperation, and also there will be no powerful theoretical weapons for guiding the practice of currency cooperation between Mainland and Taiwan. On the other hand, since2008under the theme of peaceful development of cross-straits and initial formation of the political and economic interaction situation, commodity trade, people and money have frequent warm interactions. After MOU and monetary settlement agreement, the academia, the business communities and the general public are all looking forward to intensifying on cross-straits'currency cooperation. In the above context, research on cross-straits'currency cooperation not only has certain advance and theoretical meanings, but also is of great practical significances.
Based on the optimal currency area theory, this paper constructs a research system to measure the real economic basement for cross-straits'currency cooperation, and further, explores the feasibility of the cooperation to a higher levels, and points out that the impact factors in the process of monetary cooperation. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the world's major regional monetary cooperation practices, this paper also fingers out the possible modes and paths for the cross-straits'currency cooperation. The full text is divided into seven chapters. Chapter Ⅰ introduces the research backgrounds, research contents and methods. Chapter Ⅱ clarifies the concept of monetary cooperation, its contents and process, and gives preliminary analysis of the status and progress of cross-straits' currency cooperation. In chapter Ⅲ optimum currency areas theory and relative literatures are reviewed. Chapter IV establishes a research system of cross-straits'monetary cooperation and analyzes the feasibility to a higher levels for the cooperation, and indicates the main factors that affect the process of cross-straits' monetary cooperation. Chapter Ⅴ gives the comparative analysis of three typical cooperation practices, including the "dollarization" of the Latin American countries, the single European currency and monetary cooperation in East Asia, and sums up the experience and inspiration. Chapter VI is about the possible modes and paths for cross-straits' monetary cooperation, and finally policy recommendations are given.
The main conclusions are as follows:
Firstly, the analysis of the cross-straits' monetary cooperation in the field of the status and progress shows that cross-straits' monetary cooperation is now in the early stages. If wanting to move to the higher level of monetary cooperation, we need to overcome many problems and difficulties. Along with that, political factors and institutional backwardness are the most significantly important non-economic influencing factors. Political factors, especially the external factors represented by the U.S.A have increased the complexity of the monetary cooperation; monetary cooperation in East Asia provides the experience that strong politics can break through the economic barriers; besides, political relations between the two sides decide the direction of monetary cooperation.
Secondly, according to the theory of optimal currency areas (OCA), this paper constructs a research system to measure the real economic basement for cross-straits' currency cooperation. The system consists of three levels of study, including the static single indicators measurement, the static OCA index model and dynamic endogenous constraint test. The static single indicator measurement and the static OCA index model are both come to the conclusions that there are no current economic foundations for the cooperation moving to the higher stage. But the results of endogenous dynamic model test show that the macroeconomic convergence and bilateral trade ties have significantly positive relationship, satisfying the endogenous hypothesis constraints conditions. That means the current costs of cross-straits' monetary will be made up by the future profits after the currency area comes true. Building optimal currency areas is still possible.
Thirdly, through investigating the economic bases of cross-straits'monetary cooperation, this paper identifies the factors that affect the progress of monetary cooperation. The large difference between Mainland and Taiwan in economic scales and the close bilateral trade ties are the two main impact factors. Further, the former leads to the costs of cooperation and the latter results in the benefits. The results of static analysis show that the costs from the differences in economic scales exceed the benefits coming from the close trade relations. Therefore, the foundation to higher stages of monetary cooperation does not exist. However, dynamic analysis shows that, the current net cooperation costs will be compensated by the benefits from the prospective OCA.
Fourth, as to the monetary cooperation models and paths, the paper argues that RMB can be used as the core currency of the cross-straits' monetary cooperation. The reasons are that on the one hand, RMB has certain regional influence, the process of internationalization of RMB making it a quasi-international monetary and that on the other hand, the internationalization of the RMB and the cross-straits'monetary cooperation can complement each other and promote each other. Selecting RMB as core currency will further enriches the contents of cooperation, and make the cooperation progress more smoothly. This paper also believes that in the short term, Mainland and Taiwan should continue to strengthen comprehensive economic ties on the basis of establishing currency settlement mechanism and set up information exchange mechanism, and build a unified formation for consultation and discussion of financial monitoring problem, and accelerate the establishment of the implementation of cross-straits' currency swap mechanism, and increase the use of domestic currency to support cross-straits' trade. In the medium and long term, cross-straits should promote the unification of the exchange rate policy as well as the unified monetary policy in order to make one kind of currency in use. Finally, this paper considers that RMB being the settlement currency in cross-straits' trade and establishing the RMB offshore financial center in Taiwan, are the main contents of the monetary cooperation recently, and some relevant proposals are given.
引文
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① 本部分内容绝大部分来自于作者发表在《国际贸易》2012年第7期的论文
① 图1上的各点代表的国家从左到右依次是日本、意大利、荷兰、法国、英国、德国和美国。数据来源于Bacchetta 和 van, A theory of the currency denomination of international trade, Journal of International Economics 67(2),295-319
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