摘要
20世纪70年代以来,证券市场国际化、区域化、一体化已成为全球证券市场发展的一个重要特征,证券市场开放已进入—个快速发展、不可逆转的阶段。在全球金融自由化浪潮的推动下,新兴工业化国家于20世纪80年代末、90年代初逐步开放本国的证券市场。但之后的1994年墨西哥金融危机以及1997年东南亚等金融危机的频繁发生,越来越多的经济学家对证券市场开放所带来的正效应表示怀疑,并认为这些危机的发生与证券投机资本过度有关。在此背景下,对证券市场开放的风险愈来愈受到广泛的重视。我国于90年代初期A股市场的建立之初就迈出了渐进的开放步伐,但是如何在一个资本项目尚未放开、国内证券市场还很不完善的情况下开放证券市场并控制其风险,是当前面临的一大难题。
本文第一章总结了不同证券市场开放概念的界定,认为证券市场开放涉及三方面的内容,证券投资的开放、证券融资的开放和证券服务业的开放,其中证券投资、融资的开放属于资本流动的范畴。通过对证券市场开放的国内外研究文献的梳理,本文归纳以下观点:(1)证券市场开放对市场发展具有显著的积极影响,推动了证券市场发展。(2)国外学者在证券市场开放是否能够促进经济增长这一问题上存在分歧,但都认为国内金融体制的同步改革和良好的经济基础是证券市场开放促进经济增长的重要前提条件。(3)普遍的研究认为证券市场开放导致开放国与发达国家证券市场的相关性增强,开放国证券市场容易受到来自美国、英国等发达国家证券市场的波动溢出影响。
第二章分析了我国证券市场开放过程中投资、融资和服务业开放的发展现状,分析比较发达国家与新兴证券市场开放的开放背景、策略与风险,总结了新兴证券市场开放的经验与教训,分析了我国证券市场开放相关的监管、法律、利率、汇率等配套方面改革,针对性的提出了我国证券市场开放的策略与路径选择。
第三章在分析了证券市场开放的导致风险的机理,证券市场开放与金融危机的关系,从市场、上市公司、证券公司、监管四个方面分析了证券市场开放面临的风险,并梳理了风险的度量方法。
第四章运用修正的GARCH模型分析了我国实施QFII制度以来对我国证券市场波动的影响;采用CSAD方法实证研究了QFII引入市场的羊群行为,研究表明,只有沪市在上升阶段QFII的引入导致证券市场呈现出轻微的羊群行为。第五章则实证研究了我国证券市场开放以来与国际主要证券市场的波动相关性,研究表明,证券市场开放过程中,我国较少受到来自国际证券市场的波动溢出,呈现出较高的发展独立性,这说明我国证券市场在开放过程中风险是在可控的范围内的。
第六章进一步实证研究了我国证券市场开放面临的上市公司风险、金融机构风险和证券市场监管风险。
最后针对证券市场在开放过程中可能面临的开放风险,提出我国必须在市场、证券公司、上市公司、和证券市场监管方面采取相应的风险控制措施。
The internationalization、regionalization、integration of securities market were important features of the developing global stock market Since the 1970s,and the securities market opening has entered a rapid development and irreversible stage. Many newly industrialized countries opened securities market in the late 1980s, early 1990s driven by financial liberalization, However, after the Mexican financial crisis in 1994 and the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997, economists doubt the positive effect of the securities market opening. They think that the occurrence of these crises related to over speculative capital. In this context, the risks of securities market opening were more and more regarded. China opened the market gradually in the early 1990s at the beginning of establishing A-share markets. How to open the securities market and control their risks were currently faced up while capital project has not yet been liberalized, and the domestic securities market was still imperfect.
The first chapter in this article summarizes the concept of different definition of the securities market opening, and thinks that the securities market opening covers three areas including the investment opening, the financing opening and the securities services opening, of which the investment and financing opening belong to capital flows contents. By collating domestic and overseas literature, the following points were summarized: (1)The securities market opening has a significant positive impact, and promotes the securities market development. (2)Foreign scholars have differences on the issue whether the market opening promotes economic growth, but they all think that the domestic financial system reform and good economic base are important prerequisite. (3)Securities market opening enhances the relevance between the open country and developed countries, and the open countries were vulnerable to volatility spillover from the United States, the United Kingdom and other developed countries.
The second chapter analyzes the status quo of investment, financing and services in the process of securities market opening, compares the background, strategies and risks of the developed and emerging securities markets, summarizes experiences and lessons of the emerging securities markets opening, analyzes market-related regulatory, legal, interest rates, the exchange rate and other aspects reform, and brings forward the path and strategy.
Chapter III analyzes the mechanisms of the risks of securities market opening, relation between the financial crisis and market opening, and the opening risks from four areas, and methods of risk measurement were concerned.
Chapter IV analyzes stock market fluctuations since the implementation of QFII system by GARCH model. The herd behavior is studied by CSAD model. It is proved that only Shanghai stock market shows a slight Herding Behavior in ascent stage. An Empirical Study was made to analyze the volatility relation between Chinese securities market and the international stock market in the fifth chapter. The studies showed that the Chinese stock markets were less vulnerable to fluctuations from the international spillovers and showed a high independence. This manifests that Chinese security markets risks is in a controlled ranger.
The Chapter VI studied the risks of listed companies, financial institutions, regulatory of the securities market opening.
Finally, facing the risks of the securities market opening, this paper puts forward the corresponding control measures concerned the market, securities companies, listed companies, and securities regulation.
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