摘要
在中国沿海，风暴潮灾害位于所有海洋灾害之首，每年都因为风暴潮灾害造成重大经济损失和人员伤亡。因此，科学的风暴潮灾害评估和准确快速的风暴潮预报技术研究就非常地有必要。本文选择的两个重点研究区域分别是位于渤海湾的天津海域和东南沿海的福建北部海域，这两个海域都是风暴潮灾害多发区。针对这两个重点区，本文的主要研究内容和结论如下：
首先针对天津海域建立了一个台风风暴潮模拟系统，并对该海域历史上发生的若干台风风暴潮过程进行了模拟，模拟结果和实测数据对比良好。利用该风暴潮模拟系统，评估了50年一遇强度的台风沿4条设计台风路径北上时对天津的风暴潮灾害的危险性大小，并对其形成机制进行了分析，最后找出了最容易造成天津台风风暴潮灾害的台风路径类型。研究结果还发现，风场的驱动作用和气压场的驱动作用对风暴潮增水的贡献不是线性叠加的，这两种作用之间存在着非线性相互作用，且这种作用倾向于使风暴潮强度减小。
针对福建北部海域，建立了一个基于ROMS和SWAN的风暴潮-海浪耦合模式，利用该耦合模式研究了在“桑美”台风过程中，海浪通过表面应力、底应力和辐射应力对风暴潮的影响程度及机制。研究发现：（1）海浪通过对风应力的影响，使台风路径右侧的增水增加，左侧的减水增强；（2）海浪的存在，增加了底摩擦，使海流减弱，进而影响风暴潮水位；（3）辐射应力的辐散区域，水位降低；辐射应力方向向岸时，可驱动海水在近岸堆积，使风暴潮增强。总体来讲，海浪通过风应力对风暴潮的影响最大，通过辐射应力对风暴潮的影响最小。
利用耦合器技术，开发了一个非结构网格的风暴潮-近岸浪-天文潮耦合模式，该耦合模式具有近岸高分辨率、运行效率高的特点。通过与已有耦合模式的计算效率对比发现，新开发的耦合模式，在计算网格，耦合机制等完全相同的条件下，计算效率最大可提高26.4%。
本研究对于台风风暴潮灾害的评估研究以及风暴潮的业务化预报技术发展都具有很重要的意义。
In coastal areas of China, storm surge is the most serious marine disasters, whichcauses significant human life and property losses every year. So, scientific stormsurge disaster assessment and studies on accurate and fast storm surge predictiontechnique are quite necessary. This study focuses on the coastal area of Tianjin andnorth of Fujian province, where storm surge disaster is liable to occur.
A storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast and foursevere hurricane storm surges in Tianjin history were simulated with this simulationsystem. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of theobservation. Based on the established strom surge simulation system, the storm surgedisaster risk was assessed when the hurricane moved along4designed paths, with anintensity of50year return period, and the mechanism of the strom surge formationwas analyzed. Finally, the easiest hurricane path type to cause storm surge disaster inTianjin was found. This study also shows that the effect of wind forcing and airpressure forcing on the storm surge is not linear, and the nonlinear interaction betweenthem tends to weaken the storm surge.
A storm surge-wave coupled model based on ROMS (Regional Ocean ModelingSystem) ocean model and SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) wave model wasestablished for the north of Fujian coast. Based on the coupled model, the influence ofwaves on the storm surge through wave-induced surface stress, bottom stress andradiation stress was studied in the process of hurricane “saomai”. It was demonstratedthat:(1) The storm surge set-up on the right side of the hurricane path and theset-down on the left side of the hurricane path were both strengthened;(2) The bottomroughness was enhanced by the wave effect, causing the current to be decreased, andthen the storm surge was influenced;(3) The shoreward radiation stress can causeset-up along the coast, and the divergence of the radiation stress can cause set-down.Generally, the wave influences on the strom surge mostly through the surface stress,and then the bottom stress, and the last is the radiation stress.
Based on the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT), an unstructured stormsurge-waves-tide coupled model was developed. The developed coupled model hashigh resolution in the coast area and can be run efficiently. By comparing with theexisting coupled model, the newly developed one can increase the simulationefficiency by26.4percent, when the computational grid and coupling processes of thetwo coupled model were the same.
This study is valuable to the study of hurricane storm surge disaster assessmentand the development of the operational storm surge prediction technique.
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