摘要
国有林场作为我国林业事业的重要组成部分,不仅承载着生态文明建设的使命,而且为我国经济与社会的发展提供强大的物质资源保障。因此,保持国有林场的可持续发展,无论对确保国土生态安全、国民经济发展,还是对社会和谐发展都具有十分重要的意义。然而,受林业弱质性、结构特征、外部环境变化等多重因素的影响,我国约80%的国有林场不同程度的呈现出发展危困的性状。经过实地调研,不同国有林场在危困境况下,有的能通过调整重新踏上健康,稳定发展之路,而绝大多数国有林场却深陷危困,究其原因,关键在于国有林场内在结构的不稳定性、对外部环境变化的敏感性,而且更重要的是缺乏面对影响因素冲击时的响应能力,亦即在于国有林场发展的脆弱性。
基于此,本研究围绕“调控国有林场发展脆弱性,促进国有林场可持续发展”目标,根据系统理论、熵增理论,综合运用系统工程、计量经济学、复杂性科学等学科的研究成果,依托《中国国有贫困林场界定标准研究》、《国有林场改革与发展研究》课题,主要研究包括：界定国有林场发展脆弱性、剖析国有林场发展脆弱性形成机理、探索国有林场发展脆弱性影响因素层次结构、实证不同层次结构的因素对国有林场发展脆弱性的影响机理、探寻国有林场发展脆弱性的调控机制。本研究从“如何才能”实现可持续发展的脆弱性视角而不是“如何去”实现可持续发展的传统视角对我国国有林场发展进行研究,具有一定的理论意义,通过探索国有林场发展脆弱性形成机理,直接因素、深层因素对国有林场发展脆弱性的影响机理,揭示其危困的内在规律,关键影响因素,进而通过调控国有林场发展脆弱性来促进国有林场的可持续发展,对国有林场发展具有重要的政策意义和现实意义。
本文主要研究及结论是：
(1)从系统理论的角度,对我国有林场发展系统的结构以及子系统间的关系进行分析,得出国有林场发展系统具有开放性、自组织性、非线性,网络关联性,明确国有林场发展系统是一个复杂系统；依据复杂系统脆性的理论成果,得出国有林场发展系统具有脆弱性的特征。(2)界定国有林场发展脆弱性是指在国有林场发展的过程中,因受到其内部和外部各种风险因素及其相互关系的共同影响,从而阻碍国有林场的可持续发展,干扰其功能正常发挥,衡量国有林场应对这些风险能力的度。依据系统熵的理论,论证了国有林场发展过程是一个熵增的过程,进而得出国有林场发展系统具有不稳定的内涵。(3)通过构建国有林场发展的压力—响应关系框架,对国有林场发展系统的压力因素以及响应能力进行分析,指出国有林场发展脆弱性的形成演化是国有林场发展过程中压力因素与响应因素非匹配的结果。(4)通过构建国有林场发展脆弱性的二维分析框架,应用ISM技术,对我国国有林场发展脆弱性影响因素的层级结构进行实证分析,结果表明,相关及支持产业、人力资源、资本资源、森林资源以及基础设施是造成我国国有林场发展脆弱性的最直接最基本的影响因素；科技创新、经营机制、社会保障、预警体系以及区位条件是我国国有林场发展脆弱性直接影响因素的驱动因素,通过直接因素放大或缩小国有林场脆弱性；国有林场的管理体制、国家的宏观政策以及外部的自然环境是国有林场发展脆弱性的深层次影响因素。(5)通过主成分分析,表明在我国国有林场发展脆弱性的直接影响因素中,森林资源因素、投资因素对我国国有林场发展脆弱性影响显著,进一步通过协整分析以及脉冲响应分析,表明投资与国有林场发展之间存在着长期均衡的关系以及投资波动对国有林场发展脆弱性的影响。(6)通过引入虚拟变量以及控制变量,构建了产权制度对我国国有林场发展脆弱性影响的回归模型,实证结果表明,国有林场经营管理过程中,存在多层委托代理,且产权主体不明确,收益权不完整、处置权残缺的产权制度安排严重影响国有林场发展的脆弱性。(7)通过建立误差修正模型,构建了国有林场相关政策对国有林场发展脆弱性影响的计量模型,实证结果表明,国有林场相关政策对国有林场发展脆弱性具有一定的调控作用,但是调控效果不明显。(8)基于国有林场发展脆弱性的形成机理、影响因素的分析,从降低压力冲击,增强系统响应能力的角度,构建了国有林场发展脆弱性的调控机制。
The state-owned forest farm, which is one of the important part of forestry career, not only bear the mission of the construction of ecological civilization, but also provide a powerful guarantee of the material resources for China's economic and social development. So, keep the sustainable development of national forest farm has very important significance, no matter to ensure land ecological security, national economic development, or to the harmonious development of the society. However, about80%of national forest farm of our country present a dangerous and difficult character, by the influence of forestry feeble constitution, structure features and external environment change and so on. Through on-the-spot investigation, the different national forest farm which has a dangerous and difficult character, some can be back on the health and stable development way through the adjustment, and others in danger. The key reason for that is the instability of the internal structure of national forest farm and the sensitivity of the external environment change. And more important is the lack of response ability to face influence factors. That is the vulnerability of development of state-owned forest farm.
Based on this, the goal of this study around is regulate vulnerability of national forest farm development and promote the sustainable development of national forest farm. According to the system theory and the theory of entropy increase, comprehensive use the research results of system engineering, econometrics and complexity science. Relying on the subject of "The definition standard research of state-owned poverty forest farm" and "The research of reform and development of state-owned forest farm", the main research include:defining the vulnerability of state-owned forest farm, analyzing the formation mechanism of vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development, explore the influence factors of vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development and hierarchical structure of the influence factors, empirical research the mechanism of the influence of factors of different levels on vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development, explore the control mechanism of vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development. This paper study in our country state-owned forest farm, with the perspective of "How can realize the sustainable development" not "How to realize the sustainable development", this have certain theoretical significance. Through the exploration of formation mechanism of direct and deep factors on the influence of vulnerability of state-owned forest farm development, reveals the inherent law of the danger and the key factors. And then through the regulation of vulnerability of national forest farm to promote the sustainable development of state-owned forest farm, this has important policy meaning and realistic significance.
Mainly studies and conclusions of this paper are as follows.
First, from the point of view of system theory, analyze the structure of system of China's national forest farm development and the relationship between subsystems, and have the conclusion that national forest farm system has the openness, self-organizing, nonlinear and network connection, and then based on theoretical results of vulnerability of complex systems, national forest farm development system has the characteristics of vulnerability. Second, vulnerability of national forest farm development is meaning that in the process of development, with influence of its internal and external risk factors and the influence each other, something which hinder the sustainable development of national forest farm and interfere with the nonnal function. Based on the systematic theory of entropy, demonstrates the development process of national forest is a process of entropy increase, and further conclusion is that development of national forest farm system is not stable. Third, by constructing the pressure-response relation framework of development of national forest farm, analyze pressure factors and response ability of national forest farm development system, and points out that the formation and evolution of vulnerability of development of national forest farm is the result of not match of pressure factors and response factors in the process of the development of national forest farm. Fourth, by constructing the two-dimensional framework of development vulnerability of national forest farm, and applying the ISM technology, empirical analysis to influence factors and the structure of our country state-owned forestry farm development vulnerability is conducted. The results show that, the relevant and support industry, human resources, capital resources, forest resources and infrastructure is the most direct the most basic influencing factors of vulnerability of national forest farm development; science and technology innovation, management mechanism, social security, the early warning system and location is the driving factor of directly influence factors, through the direct factors larger or smaller national forest farm vulnerability; The management system of state-owned forest farm, national macro policies and external natural environment is the deep factors of development vulnerability of national forest farm. Fifth, with the principal component analysis, in the direct influence factors of development vulnerability of national forest farm, the forest resources factor and investment factor have significant influence on development vulnerability of national forest farm, further through the cointegration analysis and impulse response analysis, the results show that there is a long-term equilibrium between the investment and the state-owned forest farm development and the fluctuation of investment has influence on development vulnerability of national forest farm. Sixth, by introducing virtual variables and the control variables, to construct the regression model of system of property rights has influence on state-owned forest farm vulnerability, the empirical results show that in the process of national forest farm management, there is multilayer agency, and the main body of property right is not clear, usufruct and disposition is incomplete, these serious influence the development of the vulnerability of the national forest farm. Seventh, through the establishment of the error correction model, constructing the measurement model of state-owned forest farm related policy has influence on vulnerability of national forest farm, the empirical results show that the related policy of national forest farm has certain regulation function on vulnerability, but control effect is not obvious. Eighth, based on the analysis of formation mechanism and the affecting factors of the vulnerability of the national forest farm, from the angle of reduce pressure impact and enhance the system response ability to construct the control mechanism of development vulnerability of national forest farm.
引文
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