摘要
在现代金融理论研究框架中,有关金融发展的研究虽然取得了丰硕成果,但在如何直观、全面、准确地测度金融运行状态上,则仍缺乏一个有效的方法。已有的研究文献主要选用一些金融指标来测度金融发展,如,存贷款规模、金融机构数、金融市场交易量,等等。但这些指标因为单一性,总是存在一些缺陷。本文的主要目的就是要寻找一个测度金融运行状态的有效方法,并希望可以探索一种新的研究视角。在具体的思路上,就是以广东为样本,尝试构造一个能够反映金融运行状况的综合指数。
本文结合金融发展与金融深化的特点,首次提出了金融成熟度概念,建立了金融成熟度分析指标体系,探索构造了金融成熟度综合指数。本文定义的金融成熟度是指一个国家或一个区域具备的金融完善程度和金融有效运用程度,包括金融总量的增长程度、金融结构的合理程度和金融效率改善程度。本文认为:金融成熟度是一个相对概念,金融成熟度的提高是一个动态的演进过程;金融成熟度演变具有区域选择性,在各种因素的综合作用下,不同区域的金融成熟度存在“落差”;金融成熟度的提高存在着内生和外生两种模式,发展中国家(地区)提高金融成熟度的根本出路在于实现由外生状态向内生状态的转换;金融成熟度演变依赖和受制于其所处的环境,尤其是经济、政治和法律制度环境;金融成熟度具有正外部效应,金融成熟度的提高将会极大地促进经济增长。而且,鉴于金融成熟度的运行规律和生命属性,本文认为,通过构造综合指数来衡量金融成熟度是一个好的选择。
本文根据金融成熟度的涵义,结合我国金融发展区域不平衡的状态,从区域金融的视角,对广东金融成熟度进行了研究。本文认为,作为我国区域金融的典型代表,广东金融在改革开放中取得巨大发展,金融成熟度持续提高。从总量上看,广东金融的主要指标均领先于全国水平,优势明显,是我国举足轻重的金融大省。从结构上看,广东金融结构在不断优化,金融组织结构、金融市场结构比较健全,同时,金融深度、金融资产结构、企业融资结构、居民金融资产结构等也好于国内其他省市。从效率上看,广东金融效率不断改进,突出表现在非国有经济的贷款份额逐年提高、中小商业银行快速发展和信贷资源使用效率、金融机构盈利及资产利润率不断提高。但统计数据也表明,广东金融在结构和效率方面的表现不如总量方面得好,有些金融结构和金融效率指标,如金融贡献率、货币化程度、信贷资源区域配置效率等,与国内其他省市比并没有明显的优势,甚至处于劣势,这说明广东虽是金融大省,但还不是一个金融强省。同时对金融成熟度演变机理的研究还进一步表明,广东金融成熟度变化与经济状态、体制变迁、金融努力、对外开放对密切相关。良好的经济状态、率先进行的体制改革和对外开放、市场主体的金融努力为广东金融成熟度提高提供了持续动力,使广东金融实现了从计划金融向市场金融、从单一金融向多元金融、从封闭金融向开放金融、从财政附庸向重要产业的跨越。
为更好地描述广东金融成熟度,具体揭示广东金融运行规律和金融运行状态,本文探索编制广东金融成熟度综合指数。在具体方法上,本文根据广东省的实际情况,同时考虑到数据可获得性,构造了覆盖金融规模、金融结构和金融效率的44个变量的指标体系,然后采用主成分分析方法编制了金融成熟度综合指数,并用金融成熟度综合指数对广东自1979年以来的金融成熟度状况进行具体描述。从研究结果看,自改革开放以来,广东金融成熟度指数在不断提高,且有加速趋势。
The research on financial development has yielded a rich harvest under the framework of current financial theory, while there is still short of an effective approach to measure the statement of financial operation intuitively, fully and accurately. The current literatures mainly choose some financial indicators to measure financial development, such as scale of loans, number of financial institutes, transactions of financial markets, etc. there are always some shortcomings in such treatments because of the simplicity of these indicators. The main purpose of this paper is to find an effective method to measure the performance of finance system and try to construct a compound index of financial performance.
Combining the characteristics of financial development and financial deepening, this paper proposes the concept of financial maturity firstly, constructs an indicator system to analyze financial maturity, and explores the compound index of maturity. Financial maturity defined in this paper is referred to the degree of financial improvement and performance in a country or a region, including growth of finance, degree of financial structure refinement and financial efficiency improvement. At last, this paper finds that financial maturity is a relative and regional concept, and the improvement of financial maturity is a dynamic process. There exist endogenous and exogenous modes of financial maturity progress. The basic road of developing countries to improve financial maturity lies in switching exogenous progress to endogenous progress. The evolvement of financial maturity is influenced by environments, especially economic, political and legal environments. There is positive externality effect of financial maturity, which will promote economic growth greatly. Furthermore, considering operational rule and life attributes of financial maturity, this paper think that it is a good choice to construct a compound index to measure financial maturity.
This paper researches on the financial maturity from the angle of regional finance, combining with the regional unbalance of financial development. As a stylized representative of regional finance in China, Guangdong finance has made great progress with financial maturity improved continuously and been a decisive financial province. The main indicators of financial development in Guangdong province keep ahead in China with obvious advantages. From the point of view structure, the financial structure is refined constantly with right organizational and financial market structure. At the same time, some indicators, such as financial depth, financial asset structure, corporate financial structure and resident financial assets are much better than other provinces and cities. From the efficiency side, although the financial efficiency is increasing constantly, the overall situation is not good enough, furthermore Guangdong don’t have evident advantages compared with other provinces. These situations indicate that Guangdong is not a province with great finance. The research of financial maturity movement further indicates that, the transformation of financial maturity in Guangdong has a tight conjunction with economical estate, the variety of policy, financial endeavor, external opening.
In order to describe financial maturity of Guangdong better and explore the financial operational rules and performance, this paper tries to build financial maturity composite index of Guangdong. Concretely, according to the actual conditions of Guangdong and the availability of data, this paper constructs an indicator system which consists of 44 variables, including financial scale, financial structure and financial efficiency, and then uses principal component analysis to choose the key variables for the financial maturity composite index. Finally, I describe the financial maturity of Guangdong since the year 1979 by using this index. In conclusion, Guangdong’s financial maturity index is increasing and accelerating the trend after the reform and opening up.
引文
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