摘要
粮食安全始终是中国经济发展、社会稳定和国家安全的基础,是关系重大的全局性战略问题。建国以来,在党和政府的高度重视下,我国以不及世界10%的耕地养活了超过20%的世界总人口量,为世界的反贫困治理与粮食安全做出了重大贡献。但是,国内粮食供求形势依旧偏紧,潜在危机依旧存在,我国粮食安全仍不可高枕无忧。粮食生产供给方面,资源要素的供给与生态环境呈刚性约束。因城镇化、工业化的持续深入推进、生物质能源发展、种粮比较效益低及农业结构深化调整等原因,大量粮食生产要素资源不断向外转移,同时,农业生产环境污染问题日益严重,为我国粮食安全保障的可持续发展提出了严峻挑战。粮食需求方面,人口自然增长、食品结构的升级换代、加工制造生物质能源等带来了粮食需求新的增长,使得国内偏紧的供需矛盾进一步激化。我国粮食安全问题只能依靠自身解决,粮食主产区作为我国粮食生产责任的主要承担者,提高其以技术效率与全要素生产率为代表的粮食生产效率是实现我国粮食安全保障的关键。
湖北省是我国13个粮食主产省份之一,具有较强的代表性地位。近年来,湖北省年均粮食商品率为35%,商品粮达180亿kg,为国家粮食安全做出了重要贡献。目前,湖北省粮食生产同样存在资源要素与生态环境的刚性约束的问题,提高该省粮食生产效率刻不容缓。本研究在技术效率理论与全要素生产率理论的框架内,以生产前沿面方法为实证红线,系统地研究了湖北省的粮食生产效率。论文在基本把握该省粮食生产成本收益与单要素生产率增长变迁的基础上,从宏观、中观和微观三个层面测度了湖北省粮食生产的技术效率、全要素生产率,并对其效率水平的历史变迁及特征、行业基础、影响因素等进行了分析,以此探寻该省粮食生产在全国范围内的成绩与地位、省内粮食各品种的生产效率内在联系与区别及比较优势、省内粮农在生产过程中的绩效提升所遇到的技术与非技术瓶颈。从研究内容具体看来,论文共分为8章：
第1章,导论部分。首先,本章在对国内外研究背景进行分析的基础上,引出研究问题。其次,详细介绍了论文所涉及到的国内外研究动态,以分析目前该研究领域仍值得完善的地方。再次,详细交代了论文的研究目的、意义,并据此阐述论文的研究内容、思路、技术路线及方法。最后,提出了本研究可能取得的创新之处。
第2章,湖北省粮食生产的历史变迁与现状介绍。本章在阐述湖北省粮食发展优势的基础上,对该省粮食生产的发展历程展开分析,总结了其粮食生产发展经验。随后,论文对湖北省粮食生产发展的可持续所面临的各种约束条件进行了全面分析。
第3章,湖北省粮食生产投入产出特征与单要素生产率分析。本章对以成本收益分析为代表的经济效率指标、以单要素生产率为代表的资源利用效率指标进行一般性描述与统计分析,以明确湖北省粮食生产资源要素的利用情况与技术进步特征。
第4章,宏观层面的湖北省粮食生产技术效率分析。本章主要考察宏观层面的湖北省粮食生产技术效率情况,采用环境方向性距离函数与超效率DEA方法,将环境污染因素纳入技术效率测算的考虑范畴,将该省粮食生产是否包含环境污染因素的两种情形下的技术效率进行对比。
第5章,宏观层面的湖北省粮食生产全要素生产率分析。本章同样将环境污染因素作为粮食生产环节的“非合意产出”,利用全国省域投入产出平衡面板数据,采取序列DEA、环境方向性距离函数和Malmquist-Luenberger指数方法,对是否包含环境因素两种类别的湖北省粮食生产全要素生产率进行了测算与分解。
第6章,中观层面的湖北省粮食生产效率部分。本章探寻湖北省粮食生产效率的静态技术效率、动态全要素生产率增长与分解的行业基础,选用序列DEA方法和湖北省县域面板数据,对湖北省早籼稻、中籼稻、晚籼稻、小麦和玉米这五种粮食主要品种的技术效率、全要素生产率进行测度。
第7章,微观层面的湖北省粮农生产效率及影响因素分析。本章重点在于探寻湖北省粮食生产效率的微观决定性因素,主要采用农业部湖北省固定观察点2007-2011年所形成的农户微观平衡面板数据,利用回归分析与SFA一步法,估计农户各种家庭特征及状况变量对湖北省粮农技术效率与全要素生产率的影响及其程度。
第8章,研究结论与展望。首先,本章对论文所做研究工作与所得结论进行总结,在此基础上形成论文政策建议。其次,阐述了论文中所存在的不足,据此提出论文未来如何进行完善,即研究展望。
论文基本结论为,湖北省是我国重要的粮食主产省之一,在粮食生产方面具备较好的优势条件,建国以来该省粮食生产整体情况良好,粮食经济呈现一定增长态势,为国家粮食安全做出了较大贡献。但随着经济增长和农业生产结构的深化调整,湖北省粮食生产的可持续性面临着挑战,资源和环境的约束性决定了湖北省必须选择一条以提高粮食生产效率为代表的集约型现代化农业发展路线。改革开放以来,湖北省粮食生产效率的提升是湖北省粮食产出增长的保障,其效率表现基本上是顺周期的,即该省粮食生产效率的发挥与国家和地方的农业、农村政治经济环境、国家政策与制度的支持与力度密切相关。从湖北省粮食生产方式选择的实际绩效来看,相对国内其他大部分产粮省份而言,该省粮食生产环节的“环境友好”绩效优于“资源节约”理念的践行效果。全要素生产率的增长成为湖北省粮食经济增长重要贡献来源,但这一增长主要由技术进步所贡献,即湖北省粮食生产率增长主要呈现“单驱动”增长模式,粮食生产的技术效率成为提升总体生产效率、实现粮食生产的可持续发展的关键路径。从湖北省粮食生产效率影响因素角度来看,农户家庭特征及状态变量对该省粮食生产效率产生了较为显著的影响。
Food security is always the basis of China's economic development, social stability and national security, it is also a major strategic issue related to overall situation. Since the founding of China, with the party and government's great effort, China has feed more than20%of the world's total population with less than10%of the world's total cultivated land, and made greatly contribution to the world's anti-poverty improvement and food security. However, China domestic food supply situation is not so optimistic, potential crisis in food supplying still exists. China still needs to pay highly and long-term attention to food security. In China, food production and supply is restrained by resources and ecological environment. Besides, due to the rapid development of urbanization, industrialization and biomass energy, as well as the relative low returns of grain cultivation and the deepen adjustment of agricultural structure, a great deal of production factors flee to the other production areas. At the same time, environmental pollution in rural area is increasingly gradually serious, threatening the sustainable development of food security. With regard to food demand, natural population growth, food structure's upgrade and rapid development of biomass energy stimulate improving the food demand which further intensify the contradictions between food supply and demand. Food security problems'solving mainly relies on China itself. China's major grain producing areas take the major responsibility in solving food safety problems, to improve their grain production efficiency is the key to achieve national food security, especially raising the technical efficiency and total factor productivity.
As one of China's thirteen major grain producing areas, Hubei province holds the representative status. In recent years, the average annual commercialization rate of grain of Hubei is35%, that means roughly18billion kilograms. Hubei province makes an important contribution to national food safety. However, Hubei's grain production is also restricted by resources and ecological environment, so it is pressing to improve the productivity of grain producing. This study works in the framework of technical efficiency and total factor productivity theory, using the production frontier approach to analyze the productivity of grain production in Hubei province systematically. On the basis of discussing Hubei grain production's cost-benefit and single-factor productivity's change, this paper calculates the technical efficiency and total factor productivity of Hubei province's grain productivity from the macro, meso and micro perspective. In this way, this paper finds out the achievements and status of Hubei province's grain production in China, the production efficiency of different main grain varieties whose internal relations and difference and comparative advantage in Hubei, and the technological and social bottleneck in raising the productivity. This study is composed of eight parts, which are as follows.
The first chapter is the introduction part, the beginning of this paper presents sevral issues to be resolved on the base of reviewing international and domestic background. Then, the writer will introduce the relative international and domestic studies in details in order to find the room to improve. After that, it details the research contents, ideas, technical route and methods of the study. Finally, the innovation points in this study were demonstrated.
The second chapter introduces Hubei's grain production's historical change and current situation. Fisrstly, this chapter illustrates Hubei's grain production's advantage. Then, the grain production's development process will be analyzed and the experience of grain production will be summarized. Subsequently, this chapter will analyze Hubei's various constraints of the grain production's sustainable development.
The third chapter seeks grain production's input-output characteristics and single-factor productivity of Hubei's grain production. In order to find out the resources' utilization effectiveness and the features of technical progress of grain production, this chapter will make a general description and statistical analysis of economic efficiency indicators and resource utilization indicators, which are represented by cost-profit and single factor productivity,.
The fourth chapter illustrates the technical efficiency of grain production from the macro-level. This chapter takes the pollution into account, and uses directional distance function and max DEA to focus on calculating the grain producing efficiency of Hubei province, then, compares the results of technical efficiency whether consider the pollution or not.
The fifth chapter focuses on grain production's total factor productivity from the macro-level. As the same as the chapter four, environmental pollution factors were supposed to be "the non-desired output" during the grain production. Based on the provincial input-output balance panel data, this study measures and decomposes grain production's total factor productivity under the situation whether consider environmental factors or not by sequence DEA, environmental directional distance function and the Malmquist-Luenberger index methods.
Chapter six analyzes the grain production's productivity in Hubei province in meso-level. This chapter explores grain production's static technical efficiency and dynamic total factor productivity and its decomposition. Specifically, this chapter uses county panel data in Hubei province and sequential DEA model to calculate the five main grain varieties'productivity, including early, middle and late indica rice, wheat and corn's technical efficiency and total factor productivity's growth and decomposition.
The seventh chapter looks out the productivity and its micro-decisive factors in Hubei province in the micro-level. This part uses the data of rural households in Hubei province, regression analysis and one-step approach to estimate the impact of farmers' various household characteristics and condition variables on farmers'technical efficiency and total factor productivity.
The eigth chapter draws basic conclusions and views the research prospects. The basic conclusions drawn from the study here and the policy implications contained are summarized review of this dissertation. Then, this chapter elaborates the shortcomings of this reserch and the further researches that the dissertation should make in the future.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows:Hubei province is one of the major grain producing areas in China and it has great advantages in grain production. Since the founding of China, the overall grain production situation in Hubei was well and the grain economy shows its somewhat growth. Moreover, Hubei contributes considerably to national food security. However, with the economic development and agricultural structure's further adjustment, the sustainability of grain production in Hubei faces many challenges. Under the constrains of resources and environment, Hubei province has to choose an intensive modern agriculture development path with the features of improving grain productivity. Since the reform and opening of China, the growth of Hubei's grain productivity has been the protection of the growth of grain yield. Also, the contributions by the productivity growth which is related to the economic development level of national and local economy to the agricultural growth are periodic in general. From the actual performance of Hubei's grain production patterns, as comparing to most of the other grain producing provinces, Hubei's "environmentally-friendly" performance during grain production is better than its "resource-saving" performance. In short, the grain's Total Factor Productivity growth is mainly driven by the frontier technological progress, and the contribution of the technical efficiency improvements is limited, in other words, the improvement of grain productivity in Hubei province is kind of "single drive" growth mode. The grain production's technical efficiency plays the key role in improving the whole productivity. From the perspectives of grain productivity's influencing factors, farmers'various household characteristics and state variables have a significant impact on Hubei's grain productivity.
引文
8《国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要(2008-2020)》。
14《中共中央国务院关于促进农民增加收入若干政策意见》,2004。
21《湖北省农业发展“十二五”规划汇编》,湖北省农业厅,2011
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