不确定性、创新不足与经济演化
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摘要
本文通过逻辑演绎揭示了演化的机制内涵,并以此为逻辑指引,以支配人的行为的组合性策略组成的策略群为研究对象,以进一步探究熊彼特组合创新和阿尔奇安不确定性下试错搜索的具体实施机制为突破点,以策略群多样性水平的生成、消退及由此形成的均衡为核心,构建了一个马歇尔所期翼的包含均衡理念的经济动态过程数理模型,并在这一模型基础上对企业家、城市经济、制度变迁及经济增长中的若干程式化事实给出了一致性的新解释,从而深化了经济学对现实经济动态过程的理解,并为提出改善经济动态过程的对策奠定了理论基础。
     论文的主要观点如下:人类所在的世界是不确定性的。不确定性会消减群体的多样性水平,只有具有多样性维持能力的群体才可能持续存在。演化即是由创新不足的个体组成的群体,以组合复制方式维持群体的多样性水平,从而使群体在不确定性下持续存在时所表现出来的一种以新事物不断突现和路径依赖的缓慢变化为特征的历时变化过程。
     经济学研究的是人的行为,支配行为的策略是组合性的,经济动态即是在策略子—策略—策略群三层面上的策略多样性水平一轮轮的生成与消减的过程。在不确定性下,策略群中的策略类型多样性不断消减,但经由既有策略子的组合复制,其多样性水平又得以不断生成。在同一过程中,各属性策略子池的多样性水平亦不断地消减,而策略子的创新则不断地恢复着其多样性水平。对经济演化的数字模拟显示,在长期中,各策略子池的多样性水平,从而策略群的潜在策略多样性水平处于动态均衡之中,并且,策略子池的动态均衡的多样性水平与其创新概率正相关。
     经济行为者以一条条满意预案即预案集来应对其所主导性地面对着的反复显现的一系列考试型的事后问题。由于不确定性,经济行为者没有完备的理论指导其提出最佳的应对预案,他们不可避免地要通过试错来搜索满意的预案集,而只有那些能提供更多试错策略方案的经济行为者才更有可能搜索到收益水平较高的应对预案集。由于新问题的不断突显,既有问题的不断消亡,经济行为者满意水平的提高以及新试错方案的不断提出,经济行为者需要不断更新其预案集。
     经济行为者是通过组合其预案集中的策略子形成新试错策略方案,从而更新其预案集的,预案集的动态过程因此呈现出了显著的演化特征,其各策略子池的多样性水平,从而其预案集的潜在策略多样性水平处于动态均衡之中。当经济行为者在一个或极少数几个低多样性水平的策略子池如基础性技术上或一定数量的中等多样性水平的策略子池如经营管理知识上具有超出一般的创新能力时,他们将能显著地提供更多的试错策略方案,并因此能生成具有较高收益水平的预案集并不断更新之。他们也能将预案集作为知识传授给一般经济行为者,并通过分享其提高了的收益而进一步获益,这就是能获得高额收益(利润)的卓越经济行为者——企业家。
     企业家也面临着事前问题。作为能够提供更多策略方案的经济行为者,其对事前问题的准确预测将较那些仅能提供较少策略方案的经济行为者更显著地提高其应对事前问题的收益水平,企业家也因此较一般经济行为者更需要精确的预测。
     当经济行为者之间共享其预案集知识时,他们组合出新试错方案的空间将扩张,并从而可生成收益水平更高的预案。但由于知识的共享,这些经济行为者的知识即被卷入到了一个共同的演化过程。这既可能提高该共享知识的群体的潜在策略多样性水平,也可能降低之,它是由知识共享的规模决定的。为谋求群体较高的动态均衡的潜在策略多样性水平以获得较高的长期收益水平,经济行为者将形成一个个紧密的(集聚的)知识共享亚群,这就是城市。而由于人类创新不同属性策略子池知识能力的不同,他们共享各策略子池知识的规模是不同的,这就形成了一种层级的城市体系,其中,最上等的城市共享着人类创新能力最低的那些策略子池中的知识,而次一等级的城市则共享着那些创新能力次低的策略子池中的知识。
     经济体中运行着多种属性的经济活动,各种经济活动在不同的满意理论契约预案约束下实施着,理论契约预案集的动态过程是演化的。制度即是经济体中运行着的理论契约中那些大量重复采用的契约条款在宏观上的显现。制度创新概率的不同决定着其动态多样性水平的不同。低制度创新概率的文化、习俗等非正式制度具有较低的多样性水平,高制度创新概率的一般契约条款的多样性水平则较高。
     经济体的制度潜在多样性水平决定着经济体的制度适应性效率,从而在长期中决定着其绩效。当经济体中引入了低多样性的新制度时,其制度潜在多样性水平即制度适应性效率将显著提高,而当引入了高多样性的新制度时,其提升幅度则较低。作为对制度演化的人为干预,创新激励以及挤出抑制是提升制度多样性水平,从而提升经济体的制度适应性效率的主导方法。其中制度创新激励应集中于可激励且有激励效率的多样性水平一般的正式制度安排方面,而制度挤出抑制则应集中于保护文化、习俗等低多样性水平的制度的多样性水平。
     在演化中,较高收益水平的预案不断替代着既有的预案,经济行为者的产出水平得以不断提高,表现在由其构成的经济体层面上即经济增长,其增长率是由典型经济行为者的潜在策略多样性水平决定的。当经济体中发生策略子创新时,其创新扩散将推动经济体中经济行为者潜在策略多样性水平在一个时期中的提升,从而推动形成一轮高增长。经济体的增长则是不同创新能力的各策略池上的创新推动形成的不同周期、不同振幅的增长叠加的结果。当经济体规模显著小于那些创新能力极低的策略子池的知识扩散范围时,经济体的增长将呈现为长期的低增长中偶尔发生持续时间相对较短的经济增长奇迹的态势。
     创新性的策略子知识向其它国家的扩散将推动这些国家进入一个以经济的短期高增长为特征的经济追赶过程。当前产出水平较低的国家的典型经济活动者的潜在多样性水平较低,知识的扩散将大幅提升其潜在策略多样性水平,并从而使其能以更大的幅度提升其预案集的收益水平。这样,当前产出水平越低,其经济追赶中的增长率就越高。
The dynamic economy is a significant evolutional process-the emergence of new things, path dependence, the slow and continuous change. This initiates a wide range of study and abundant outstanding literatures, although a mathematical model with a clear and concise logic has not been established. This thesis reveals the mechanism of the evolution through logic, builts a mathematical equilibrium model of economic evolution with the ideas of Knight's uncertainty, Schumpeter and Ayers'combination of innovation and Alchian's trial and error, and gives consistency interpretation to entrepreneurs, institutional change, urban economy and economic growth.
     The world, especially its society and economy is uncertain, and so the continuance is the ultimate human concerns. Uncertainty will reduce the cluster diversity, only those with ability to maintain diversity was likely to continue. As for the cluster complementing diversity through replication, self-independent simple replication can produce enough diversity when their individual has sufficient innovation (mutation) capacity, while this capacity is weak, the cluster will lost. Evolution is those clusters with inadequate innovation ability make their ways of continuance under uncertain though combinational replication.
     Economics is the study of human behavior governed by combinational strategy, and economic dynamics is the process of the rounds of strategy diversity reduction and formation on the strategic gene-strategy-strategy cluster framework. The strategy diversity continually evaporates under uncertain and increasse through the combinational replication of the survival strategic gene. In the same process, the diversity of each strategy gene pool decreases under uncertain and is resumed by strategy gene innovation, while this diversity decreasing and renewing process is relatively slowly carrying out. The digital simulation of economic evolution shows that, in the long run, the diversity of each strategy gene pool and so the potential strategic diversity of the strategy cluster is in dynamic equilibrium, and the dynamic equilibrium diversity of each strategy gene pool is positively determined by its innovation probability.
     People solves the series of Ex Post ploblems he repeatedly encounteres with a satisfied counterplan set. People has not complete theory guiding himself to select the best counterplan because of uncertainty, and he inevitably needs to act some strategies to determain which is satisfied plan, and only those who can provide more trial and error strategies are more likely to abtain counterplan set of higher rewards. Because new problems continuously appear and existing problems continuously vanish, the level of satisfaction continnuously increases and people's new strategies continuously been innovated, the counterplan set needs constantly updating.
     People raises trail and error strategic plan through assembling the strategy genes of his existing counterplan set, and so updates his counterplan set. The dynamic process of people's counterplan set therefore shows significant features of evolution. Thus the diversity of every strategy gene pool and the potential strategy diversity are all in dynamic equilibrium. When one has excellent innovation ability in one or a few number of low-diversity strategy gene pools, such as basic technology, or in several medium-diversity strategy gene pools, such as management knowledge, he will significantly raise more trial and error strategy and therefore abtain higher reword counterplan and continnuously update it. They can also imparte his counterplan set as knowledge to normal people, and share their improved benefits. Such is entrepreneur of being able to obtain high reward (profits) as an outstanding people.
     Entrepreneur is also facing Ex Ante ploblems. As people can provide more strategy plans, a perfect forecast will remarkably enhance his reward in handling the Ex Ante ploblems he is encountering, entrepreneur therefore needs higher qualitied forecast than normal.
     The combination space of strategy will expand when people share their knowledge of counterplan sets, and people can thus abtain counterplan sets of high reward in short run. However, the counterplan sets will be involved in a common evolutional process through knowledge sharing. Such maybe enhance or reduce the potential strategy diversity of those people by means of the size of knowledge-sharing. To seek higher dynamic equilibrium diversity and so the higher long-term performance, people will share knowledge among different subgroup, and such is the urban. Because the innovation abilities of different strategy gene pools are different, people will share knowledge of different strategy gene pool in different size, and so an urban hierarchy system is built.
     Economy is with different economic activities implemented under different satisfied theoretic contract counterplan, and the dynamic process of theoretic contract counterplan is of evolution. Institution is the macroscopical appearance of those contract clauses massively uses in governing economic activities. The dynamic equilibrium diversity of a certain institution is determinated by its innovation ability. People has deficit innovation ability in culture, custom, and so the informal institution diversity of is low, while the normal contract clause is diversiform.
     The potential institutional diversity of a economy determines the institutional adaptive efficiency which determines its performance in the long run. When a new instituion gene was introduced in a certain low diversity institutional gene pool, the potential institutional diversity and so the adaptive efficiency will be significantly improved, while for those in high diversity institutional gene pool, the improvement will be few. As human intervention on institutional evolution, innovation incentives and extrusion suppression are ways enhancing institutional adaptive efficiency, so as to enhancing the long run performance. For the higher acting performance, the institutional innovation incentives should be focused on formal institution of general arrangements, and the extrusion suppression be focused on the protection of cultural, customs and other low-diversity institutions.
     The higher reward counterplan set continuously replaces the existing plan set in evolution, and then the people's output constantly improve. Such is economic growth on economy level, and its growth rate is determined by the potential strategy diversity of its nomal people. When there is an innovation in a certain strategy gene pool, this innovation and its diffusion will drive the potential strategy diversity inceasing in a period, and shows a high growth. The economic growth is the sum of the different growth waves drived by innovations of all strategy gene pool. When the economy size is significantly smaller than the size of sharing those strategy gene pool knowledge with lowest innovation ability, the economy will show growth in low-growth in long-run with short-run growth miracle.
     New strategy gene knowledge spread to other countries will'drive them into a short-run economic high growth named economic catch-up. The potential strategy diversity of those countries with low current output is low, and the knowledge spread will significantly enhance its diversity, and so its people can significantly upgrade their counterplan sets. Thus, the lower the current output level, the higher catch-up growth rate.
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