摘要
伴着全球经济的飞速发展以及世界产业结构调整步伐的加快,世界经济重心已由制造业不断向服务业倾斜。自二十世纪70年代以来,国际服务贸易蓬勃发展,服务业和服务贸易的发展水平已经成为衡量一个国家现代化水平的重要标志,全球经济竞争的焦点也开始从货物贸易转向服务贸易。国际服务贸易日益成为新一轮全球经济发展的动力和引擎。作为发展中国家,虽然我国的服务贸易起步较晚、水平较低,但近年来服务贸易发展势头强劲。在服务贸易的快速发展的同时,还应注意到,服务贸易的发展不仅要表现在量上,更要注重质的提高,服务贸易结构优化,可以提高资源配置效率,提高贸易质量。世界服务贸易的发展经验,特别是服务业发达国家的经验表明,一国服务贸易结构是否合理是影响服务贸易发展水平和质量的重要体现之一。从目前服务贸易结构现状来看,我国服务贸易结构仍处于较低的层次和水平。因此,研究服务贸易结构优化的相关理论和影响因素对提高我国服务贸易发展质量具有一定的理论意义和现实意义。
本文在研究服务贸易结构优化相关问题时采用了纵向梳理与横向比较相结合的方法。纵向梳理了服务贸易结构决定和优化的相关理论；横向比较了美国、日本、韩国与中国服务贸易结构优化的演化历程和影响因素。本文采用微观经济学理论作为工具分析了影响服务贸易结构优化的因素。在实证分析中采用了计量经济学中的协整分析、ADF检验、Engel—Granger检验法、和Granger因果关系检验等现代数理分析方法研究了影响美日韩三国服务贸易结构优化的因素,并分析了各国政府在服务贸易结构优化中的作用。
论文的研究工作分为以下四部分：
第一部分包括文章的第1章绪论和第2章,绪论部分给出了本文的选题背景与意义,并从比较优势理论对服务贸易的适用性分析、服务贸易结构优化的相关研究以及服务贸易结构优化影响因素的相关研究进行文献综述,同时作出了相应的文献评述。第2章介绍了服务贸易结构优化的理论基础。从静态比较优势理论和动态比较优势理论两方面入手,对服务贸易结构的形成和优化的理论进行全面的总结和梳理。
第二部分为论文的第3章,本章从服务贸易结构优化的相关问题(包括服务贸易和服务贸易结构的含义、服务贸易结构优化的一般趋势、服务贸易结构优化的测度)入手,分析了一国服务贸易结构形成的要素依赖,并指出按照一国固有的要素禀赋安排服务贸易结构极易掉进“比较优势陷阱”,最后从动态比较优势理论为依据分析了服务贸易结构的不断优化的决定性因素：技术进步、人力资本积累和物质资本积累。
第三部分为论文的第4、5、6、7四章,其中第4、5、6三章分别选取服务贸易发达国家的代表——美国,赶超型经济体——日本,新兴工业化经济体——韩国作为分析对象,研究了美日韩三国服务贸易结构优化的演进历程和阶段性划分、三国服务贸易结构优化的影响因素和三国政府在促进服务贸易结构优化中的政策措施。第7章对4、5、6三章的内容加以总结和分析,指出三国在服务贸易结构发展阶段、影响因素和政府促进政策方面的相似性和差异性,总结经验为我国服务贸易发展提供借鉴。
第四部分为文章的第8章,对我国服务贸易和服务贸易结构的发展现状进行分析,对服务贸易结构的演化进行阶段性划分,指出我国在服务贸易结构上存在的问题。最后分析美日韩三国的发展历程和经验对我国的启示,并指出优化服务贸易结构的路径。这一路经包括两部分：第一部分是从要素上着手,即通过技术进步、人力资本积累和服务业物质资本积累来优化贸易结构；第二部分对我国政府应采取的促进措施进行分析,提出政策建议。
With the rapid development of global economy and adjustment of world industrial structure, the focus of world economy has changed from manufacturing industry to service industry. Since 1970s, the international trade in service has been flourished developed, and the service industry and the development of service trade have become the important symbol to measure the modernization level of a country. The competition of global economy has transferred from merchandise trade to service trade. The international trade has become the new engine and power to the development of global economy. As a developing country, although the start of China's service trade was relatively late and the development level was relatively low, the developing momentum was strong in recent years. Meanwhile, we should notice that the development of service trade is not only performed on the quantity but also on the elevation of quality, that is the optimization of service trade structure. The experience of the development of world service, especially the countries with developed service industry, the structure of trade in service is one of the most important characteristics of service trade development level and quality. From the current situation of service trade structure, the development of China's service trade structure is on the relatively low level. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relative theories of service trade structure optimization and its impact factors to advance the development quality of China's service trade.
The dissertation studies the relative issues about the optimization of service trade structure through the way of combining vertical research and horizontal compare. It studies the relative theories of the decision and optimization of service trade structure vertically. And it compares the development stage and impact factors of U.S., Japan, Korea, and China horizontally. This dissertation adopts the microeconomics theories as tools to analyze the impact factors to the optimization of service trade structure. In the empirical analysis, it adopts the co-integration analysis, ADF test, Engel-Granger test, and Granger causality test, and other modern mathematical methods to study the factors that impact the optimization of service trade structure to U.S., Japan, and Korea, and analyze the effect of the three countries' government in the optimization of service trade.
The main contents of the dissertation can be divided into four parts:
The first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the topic, and it reviews the literature before from the practicability of the comparative advantage theories to service trade, relative studies about the optimization of service trade structure, and the impact factors of service trade structure optimization. And it makes comments about the literature before. The second chapter introduces the theories bases about the optimization of service trade structure. It concludes the theories about the formation and optimization of service trade from static and dynamic comparative advantage.
The second part is the third chapter of the dissertation. This chapter introduces the related issues about the optimization of service trade structure, including the definition of service trade and service trade structure, the general trend of the optimization of service trade structure, and the measure of the service trade optimization. It analyzes the dependent factors that decide the formation of service trade structure, and points out that it is quite easy to follow into the "trap of comparative advantage" if a country arrange its service trade structure. In the end of this chapter, it points out the determination factors of the optimization of service trade structure according to the dynamic comparative advantage. These factors are technical progress, human resource accumulation, and material capital accumulation.
The third part is chapter four, five, six, and seven. In chapter four, five, and six, the dissertation selects three countries to study the stage, phase,, impact factors, and government effect in the optimization of service trade structure. The three countries are U.S., which is the representative of developing countries; Japan, which is the representative of catching-up economic countries; Korea, which is the representative of newly industrialized countries. In chapter seven, it concludes and analyzes the content of the three chapters before, and points out the similarities and differences of the phase, impact factors, and the promotion policies of the service trade structure. In the end, it concludes the experiences of the development of service trade structure of the three countries'to make reference for the development of China's service trade.
The forth part is chapter eight. It analyzes the current development of China's service trade and service trade structure. And it classifies the stage of China's structure of service trade, and points out the problem of the service trade structure. In the end, it analyzes the inspiration of the experience of the three countries to China, and proposes the path to upgrade the service trade structure, which can be divided into to parts. The first part is from the factors points of view, that are the technical progress, human resource acceleration, and service industry capital acceleration. The second part is about policies which the Chinese government should take to optimize the service trade structure.
引文
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②资料来源：世界银行数据库整理计算得出。
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