摘要
风电场输出功率预测对风电系统的调度运行管理具有十分重要的意义。本文主要采用时间序列分析方法对风电场功率短期预测进行研究。首先,对风电场历史风速数据进行分析,平稳化处理,建立时间序列预测的ARIMA模型;利用该模型对未来时刻的风速进行超前六步预测,并给出了残差序列预测方法对结果进行修正,以提高预测精度。在风速短期预测结果的基础上,综合考虑风电机组的输出功率特性和风电场的尾流效应,建立了风电场输出功率的短期预测模型。最后,以某风电场的实际历史数据为例,运用Matlab 7.1编程对该算法进行了仿真,达到了预期的效果。
Wind power forecasting is very important to the dispatch、the operation and the management of power systems with wind power. Using time series methods, this paper studies the wind power short-forecasting. Firstly, use time series analysis theory to analysis the history wind speed signal of wind farm, convert it to stationary series and build the mathematical model by time series method which can acquire the wind speed of six-step forecast. To improve the forecasting accuracy, we also build error forecasting model by iterative method and use the model to update the forecasted wind speed. Based on the forecasted wind speed, an output power forecasting model of wind farm was built by considering wind turbine output power characteristics and wake effect. At last, an example of short-term wind power prediction was provided and it achieved the desired result. Matlab 7.1 was also used to demonstrate the validity of this method.
引文
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