摘要
中华人民共和国成立初期,由于特殊政治经济条件,中国走的是一条与众不同的工业化道路,即政府用行政干预手段,以牺牲农民利益为代价实现工业的现代化。在工业化的进程中,原有的城乡分割的二元结构非但没有得到改变,而且还被逐渐加强了。这种非均衡的发展模式又导致了城乡二元社会保险制度的产生：城镇居民享受着相对较为完善、水平较高的社会保险服务；而农村社会保险始终处于国家社会保险的边缘,广大农民被排挤在社会保险体制之外。
在中国,农民是防御风险意识和能力较弱的群体,也是为我国社会经济改革贡献最大而索取最少的群体,政府有责任为他们提供与其他公民同等水平的公共服务。现在是该为农村居民建立养老保险的时候了。国内专家学者已从不同的角度对农村养老保险进行了研究,也有许多学者从精算学的角度对农村养老保险进行过研究。本文是利用养老保险的精算模型来对农村养老保险的进行实证研究。借鉴城镇职工养老保险的基本模型,在分析三种养老保险筹资模式各自的特点后,选定完全积累法作为分析基础,分个体法和整体法建立养老保险基金平衡关系式,确定农户的缴费年限为15年,在60岁领取养老金。但不同年龄的农户距离60岁时的缴费年限不足15年,所以将年龄小于60岁的农户分为青年组(20-45岁)和中年组(46-59岁)来分别建立基金平衡关系。分别用个体法和整体法在确定给付模式下和确定缴费模式下求得全体研究人员的缴费率和60岁后领取的养老金数额；并在此基础上以个体法为例,对影响养老金积累额的敏感性因素进行分析,进而又对养老保险最重要因子—养老金替代率进行分析,通过以上分析,笔者得下结论：
1、在对个体法进行建模分析时,又用了确定给付模式,即确定农户60岁开始领取养老金的数额为P,设为4200元。越早缴费的农户其缴费率越低,越晚缴费的农户其缴费率越高。这是因为他们的缴费离60岁的时间不同,其积累额不同。越早缴费,其积累额越多,确定给付模式下,他的缴费率就低；越晚缴费,其积累额越少,他的缴费率越高。
2、对个体法进行个人账户分析时,发现在中年组的人员中,缴费率均超过40%,这个数目是不切实际。所以对于中年组的成员来讲,可在缴费时趸缴捐纳金,金额为积累15年的积累额。如果中年组成员不趸缴积累额,如果按照文章预定10%的缴费额来缴费,那么领取的金额则少得多。
3、对个体法运用养老金替代率分析时,结果青年组的成员求得的缴费率大大高于中年组的成员。这是因为在给定的替代率下,每月领取的养老金与农户积累额为正向关系,由于青年人开始缴费时到领取养老金的年限长,因而工资积累得多,那么在60岁时领取养老金就比中年组的多得多,所以他在年轻时的缴费就高,从而缴费率就高。
4、用整体法进行分析时,本文确定了缴费比例,设定为10%,来求得60岁后领取的养老金数额。由于是以特定的年龄组为分析对象,体现了养老保险的共济性,所以得出的结论比较正常。
5、在所有对个人账户的影响因子中,收益率的影响最大。在农户20户开始缴纳捐纳金时,收益率影响最大。收益率增加1个百分比,由个人账户的积累额就增加原来不变时的2.75倍。而年龄越大,其收益率的影响则相应减少。这也正是完全积累制下养老保险的缺点,其养老基金极易受收益率的变化,从而使账户贬值。
6、在对养老金替代率作敏感性分析时,实际纯收入增长的比率往往同预期给定的增长率不同,因而求出的养老金替代率也就不同。实际增长比率越高,则替代率就越低。这样在60岁时领取的养老金就相对少,不能满足那个时候的生活,这个时候国家财政就需要对农户进行额外养老金补贴。
此外,通过对农村养老保险的研究,笔者认为还有两个问题需要进一步的研究,诸如重庆市农村人口生命表的构建和长期精算平衡的研究。
The People's Republic of China was first established, due to special political and economic conditions, China has taken a distinctive industrialization
Road, that the government administrative interventions, at the expense of farmers at the expense of industrial modernization. In the industrialization process, the original division of the dual structure of urban and rural areas not only not changed, but also gradually increased. This non-equilibrium model of development has led to urban and rural social insurance system produces: for urban residents enjoy a relatively better, the higher the level of social security services; the rural social security is always in the edge of the national social insurance, the majority of farmers were exclusion in the social insurance system in addition.
In China, farmers are risk awareness and weak defense groups, but also for socio-economic reforms in China to solicit contributions for at least the largest group, the Government has the responsibility to provide them with other citizens the same level of public services. Now is the establishment of endowment insurance for rural residents of the time. Domestic experts and scholars from different angles, old-age insurance in rural areas were studied; there are many scholars, actuarial science from the perspective of rural endowment insurance of the issue. This article is the use of pension actuarial model to rural old-age insurance the study. Learn basic pension, the basic model
In the analysis of three types of pension insurance fund their own characteristics, identified as the analysis method based on the total accumulation, sub-individual method and the overall balance of pension funds were established relationship to determine the contribution of rural households 15 years of, at the age of 60 receive pension. However, farmers of different ages of payment from the age of 60 years less than 15 years, so the farmers younger than 60 years of age were divided into young (20-45 years) and middle-aged group (46-59 years) to fund were established balance relations. With individuals in defined benefit model of all the researchers calculated the rate of payment; the overall method used in determining the payment mode, all obtained
The researchers receive the amount of pension. And to individual methods for example, affect the amount of pension accumulated analysis of the sensitivity factors, in turn, the most important factor on the pension-the pension replacement rate analysis, the above analysis, I have to conclude:
1, in the modeling analysis of individual laws, but also with a defined benefit model, which was to determine the age of 60 farmers began to receive pension in the amount of P, set to 4200 Yuan. Age of farmers in its early payment the lower the contribution rate, the more farmers in the late payment fee rate. This is because their pay from 60 different times, the accumulation of different amounts. The earlier payment, the amount of its accumulated more defined benefit model, his contribution rate is low; more lately fees, less the amount of its accumulated, and his pay rate.
2, method of individual analysis of personal accounts found in the middle-aged group of officers, the payment rate of more than 40%, this number is unrealistic. So, speaking for the middle-aged members of the group can accept donations to pay fees at wholesale payments, the amount of accumulated 15 years of accumulated amount. If the middle-aged group members do not pay the accumulated amount of wholesale, according to article 10% of scheduled payment amount to pay, then the amount received much less.
3, on the individual method of using the pension replacement rate, the result obtained by young members of the group's contribution rate is much higher than the middle-aged group. This is because a given replacement rate, the monthly amount of pension accumulated positive relationship with the farmers, as when young people begin to receive pension payment period too long and so much accumulated wages, then at 60 pension age much more than the middle age group, so he's toll will be high in young, so contribution rate will be high.
4, with the overall analysis method, this paper identified the contribution rate, set at 10% after 60 years of age to seek and receive benefits. As is the specific target age group for the analysis reflects the total economy of pension insurance, so the conclusions more normal.
5,in all of the personal accounts of factors, yield the greatest impact. Began to pay farmers 20 in donations nagging, returns the greatest impact. Yield increase of 1 percent, from the personal account of the accumulated amount has increased 2.75 times when the original unchanged. The older, the earnings rate is correspondingly reduced. This is fully funded pension insurance under the disadvantage of the system, and vulnerable to changes in income, so that the depreciation account.
6, in the pension replacement rate for sensitivity analysis, the actual net income growth rate is often given with the expected growth rate of different, and thus calculates the pension replacement rate is different. The higher the real growth rate, the lower the replacement rate. In this way receive a pension at age 60 is relatively small, can not meet at that time of life, this time of national financial need additional pension subsidies to farmers.
In addition, studies of rural endowment insurance, I believe that there are several areas need further research, such as Chongqing's rural population life table construction and long-term actuarial balance of the study.
引文
1 http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20100225_402622945.htm
2姚远：《从运行环境的变化看农村家庭养老的发展》[J]人口研究,1997(2)
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6卢海元：《中国农村社会养老保险制度建立条件分析》[J经济学家,2003(6)
7马利敏：《农村社会养老保险请缓行》[J]探索与争鸣,1999(7)
8杨翠迎：《建立农民社会养老保险计划的经济社会条件的实证研究》[J]中国农村观察,1997(6)
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11袁春瑛：《现阶段我国农村养老保障的更改选择——家庭养老、土地保障与社会养老想结合》[J]农业现代化研究,2002(6)
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18 http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjgb/ndtjgb/qgndtjgb/t20100225_402622945.htm
20中国人寿网站http://www.e-chinalife.com/news/wnannounce/rnannounce_list.html
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22平安人寿网站http://www.pingan.com/group/insurance/interest_notice_120293.jsp
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25人民银行网站http://www.pbc.gov.cn/detail.asp?col=462&ID=2479
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