摘要
改革开放以来,随着我国经济的快速发展,投资建设的力度也在不断加大,但在交通运输能力得到了大大提升的背后,交通安全事故年年频发,一起起惨痛的车毁人亡事件,触目凉心。究其原因,第一,我国非常规突发事件近年来有增无减、极端气候、极端路况使得交通面临着更为复杂和多变的风险环境,而我国应对风险源的交通预警、应急管理响应机制还不够健全。第二,我国交通事故紧急救援方面的工作也才刚刚起步,在部分问题上虽有一定的零散研究,例如对一些宏观体系组织架构的研究、部分孤立系统的研究等,但是还没有对交通事故紧急救援系统所涉及到的具体问题进行更为深入地研究,目前的交通事故紧急救援仅仅是紧急救援的雏形,我国还非常缺乏行之有效、完善的紧急救援系统。第三,交通安全的核心是交通风险管理,它是交通应急管理系统建设的关键。
交管工作的复杂性和不确定性决定了交管运行过程的风险时时处处存在。因此,风险识别是交管安全风险管理的源头。交管风险因素是诱发交管事故或事故症候的最基层的要素和单元,交通事故、事故征候和不安全因素的发生,一个风险因素通常不能造成大的系统故障,往往是人、机、环境、管理等风险因素相互作用的结果,当多个风险因素相互作用,叠加放大后就可能造成系统故障。因此,研究交通安全风险因素是交管安全风险问题的原因和始端,揭示各个风险因素之间的相互作用及耦合规律,才能最终有利于控制安全事故,提高风险管理水平。
国内外学者对交通安全风险的发生机理、发展机理和演化机理进行了探索,但对演化机理中的耦合机理研究不够。交通安全风险时常表现为非常复杂的非线性耦合过程。搞清交通安全风险耦合机理及解耦原理,挖掘出隐藏在人和管理背后的导致危险发生的诱因,并发现各个因素之间的内在规律是交管安全风险管理的关键。
本文从人为因素、设备因素、环境因素和管理因素的耦合过程中找出不安全事件的真正原因和规律,将有利于提高交管风险的有效性和可操作性,预防和矫正安全风险的萌生与演化,并在此基础上构建基于风险耦合的交通应急管理系统,并剖析其运作机制,对提升交通安全管理水平,促进我国交通事业又好又快地发展,具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。具体的研究内容如下：
(1)阐述了交通安全应急管理系统的定义、要素、结构、功能、目标和特征。交通安全应急管理系统简言之就是系统地、明确地实施安全风险预控与管理过程,将运行管理与财务、人力资源系统综合起来,达到预定的安全目标。交通安全应急管理系统的要素有主体(公安交通管理部门)、客体(各类交通安全应急事件)、支撑体系、资金。交通安全应急管理系统包括2个子系统,即交通事件预警管理子系统和交通事件应急管理子系统。其目标是在交通事件发生前采取预防措施,降低和避免异常交通事件的发生；在发生交通事件时,及时发现并采取合适的应急教援措施,使人员伤亡和财产损失最小,并尽量降低事件导致的交通延误等影响,在最短时问恢复到正常交通状态。交通安全应急管理系统有目的性、整体性、层次性、环境适应性、相关性的特点。
(2)采用文献计量学方法统计了影响交通安全的主要因素,在此基础上,运用解释结构模型对这些影响因素间的关系进行了分析,得出了各因素间的关系结构,找出了交通安全的顶层直接影响因素、中层间接影响因素以及底层根本影响因素。
(3)将风险耦合分析方法引入到交通安全风险分析管理中,进行交通安全风险耦合分析。对交通安全风险耦合过程进行分析,得出交通安全耦合风险值,并且对风险事件的三种重要度进行分析。根据风险值的大小和风险事件的重要度有效的找出需要重点控制和管理的基本事件对象,为交通行业管理部门提供判定交通事件安全程度的理论依据。
(4)构建了基于风险耦合的交通安全应急管理系统,介绍了系统目标与需求、框架结构设计以及系统设计中几个关键因素,在框架分析的基础上阐述了系统体系结构和系统功能模块的设计和技术实现。并深入探讨了基于风险耦合的交通安全应急管理系统的运行,包括交通安全应急管理的组织运行和系统运行机制两个部分的内容。
(5)针对交通系统在突发事件冲击下能力受到损失进而需要启动应急管理程序,介于应急恢复成本和社会成本的存在,因而依照应急成本最优的原则,建立了应急期间能力采购和恢复的模型。
(6)以上海世博会交通应急管理系统为案例对交通安全应急管理系统进行了实证分析并得出结论：在我国交通应急管理体制的建设中,体制是根本,完备的应急预案是保障,智能化管理系统是关键。
China has been experiencing dynamic urbanization and motorization due to rapid economic growth. As a result of these dynamic changes in the economy, road transport infrastructure development and motorization, road traffic accidents have become a more severe problem in China. To find out its cause, firstly, we are facing a more perplexed and uncertain traffic environment due to extreme weather and adverse road condition in China. However, neither collision warning management nor emergency response mechanism to counter risk sources is sound yet in China. Secondly, emergency-rescue project in China is still in its infancy now. There is not an effective and sound rescue system. Besides, though there are some independent researches such as studies with regard to macro-organizational structure and isolated system, in-depth study concerning concrete problems of emergency rescue system is absent. Thirdly, traffic risk management is at the very core of traffic safety which is also central to emergency management system construction.
Traffic control is at risk all the time due to its complexity and uncertainty. Hence, risk identification is the origin of traffic safety management. To identify factors associated with traffic accidents is crucial. Generally speaking, a single factor will not lead to serious system fault. Instead, man-vehicle-road combinations are likely to affect the traffic accidents when multi-factors inter-act. Therefore, it is urgent to explore the interplay and coupling between each risk factors in order to raise the risk management level.
Scholars throughout the world have probed into the occurrence, development mechanism and evolution mechanism of traffic risk while the coupling mechanism in evolution mechanism has been little touched. However, traffic risk factors are always in complicated nonlinear coupling process. Thus, it is basic to figure out the coupling and decoupling mechanism of traffic risk and the inherent law of underlying incentives.
The study will add knowledge on understanding what inherent factors contribute to the occurrence of traffic accidents from the man-vehicle-road-management coupling process. Then we will construct traffic emergency management system based on risk coupling process. Moreover, we will analyze the operating mechanism of the system which has both the practical sense and theatrical value.
The study is organized in nine chapters. Specifically,
Chapter one gives the background of the study, problem statement and states the main objective of the study, it also highlights ways of investigating issues in relation to the study.
Chapter two elaborates the definition, essential factors involved, structure, function, characteristics and objective of the traffic emergency management system. The emergency management system, which projects purpose, integrity, hierarchy, environment-compatibility and relativity, is an integrated organizational structure containing resources and facilities in order to implement traffic hazard control and management. In particular, factors of the system are as follows: the subject (Administration of Public Security and Transportation), the object (the traffic incident), the supporting system and capital. Besides, there are two subsystems involved which are forewarning administrative subsystem and emergency management subsystem. On one hand, we can inspect, diagnose and fore-control the traffic incident before it happens. On the other hand, once the traffic accident occurs, we can adopt proper relief measures immediately, in order to drawdown the casualty and damage to the lowest and restore the traffic to normal state in the shortest time.
Chapter three presents the statistic analyses of traffic risk factors based on document metrology. Then, we analyze the correlations between those factors by use of interpretive structural modeling. Accordingly, we find out surface layer factors, middle layer factors and inner layer factors of traffic safety.
Chapter four presents the effect and inter-act process of traffic risk coupling. We firstly explore the Value-at-Risk and level-of-dangerous in combination of man-vehicle-road-management factors and then examine the decoupling mechanism from the angle of "strong-coupling" mechanism.
Chapter five constructs a traffic emergency management system based on risk coupling. It presents the architecture model, frame design and operating environment design. It elaborates the system function module design based on demand analysis. Afterwards, we analyze some crucial factors in the system design.
Chapter six establishes the purchase and recovery model of emergency management based on the minimum-cost principle. Accordingly, there are recovery cost and social cost when switching on emergency management procedure.
Chapter seven explores the operation of traffic emergency management system based on risk coupling containing organizational operation and system mechanism. The organizational operation pertains to organization structure and forewarning plan. The system mechanism illustrates information monitoring, data processing, system decision-making, information issue, coordination and etc.
Chapter eight gives an empirical study on traffic emergency management system of Shanghai World Expo. We can see that an appropriate organization, a matured forewarning plan and an intelligent traffic system are crucial.
Finally chapter nine contains the final discussion, conclusions and recommendations.
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