摘要
突发公共事件是一个处于自然、生态、经济、社会和文化环境下的开放复杂巨系统。目前,对突发公共事件应急管理的研究,从宏观层面上,侧重于应急管理制度和机制方面的研究,从突发事件的机理出发,研究在制度保障和应急体系方面,如何建立统一高效的应急管理体系。另一方面,从微观层,针对不同领域中的突发事件特性,从应急预案编制、应急资源建设、在线辅助决策支持、案例推理、人员疏散等实际问题出发,研究解决问题的方法、模型或建立相应的应急管理信息系统,从技术层面上,实现应急决策处置过程中各部门信息资源的有效整合,以及部门之间的协同应对,从而更好的应对突发事件。
国内外学者基于以上两个方面,对应急管理作了大量研究工作。然而,不论是宏观上应急管理机制和体系的建设和研究,还是微观上技术层面的研究,都存在这样或那样的问题。首先这两类研究都有一定的局限性,只是针对某一类突发事件进行研究,缺乏从突发事件本体的角度进行事件系统的构造和说明。其次,对突发事件发生、发展和演化机理的系统性研究还很不足。
针对应急管理中存在的上述问题,本文在借鉴系统理论、管理科学理论的思想,结合作者在博士期间所参与的相关实践工作,针对形式各异的突发公共事件,抽取其共性属性,将突发公共事件进行了细分细化,提出了突发公共事件的元事件模型,并且以其为基础,提出了基于突发公共事件的元事件模型的过程构建和基于元事件模型的突发公共事件处理流程。另外,从突发事件发生和演化的角度,分析了单一突发公共事件的演化,从混沌理论的角度,通过对突发公共事件构成要素的分析,抽取其关键因素,建立了以致灾强度、受灾环境状况和应急管理水平三要素的突发公共事件状态方程,以煤矿突发事故为实验数据,对其相关参数的变化进行了讨论和分析,对突发公共事件的演化进行了分析和验证。具体研究如下：
(1)针对形式各异的突发公共事件,通过对突发公共事件公共属性构成的分析,抽取其共性属性,采用OWL本体描述语言对突发公共事件公共属性进行描述,同时将突发公共事件过程按照元事件进行细分和组织,基于元事件对突发公共事件的发展演化进行了分析,建立了突发公共事件的元事件模型,以帮助决策者根据历史案例的元事件模型,迅速建立处置方案,最后给出了实例进行了验证和说明。
(2)通过对突发公共事件发生过程以及应对过程的分析,结合突发事件的情境理论,讨论了基于情境的突发公共事件的处置过程,并且提出了对突发公共事件元事件过程的构建,以此为基础,并提出了基于元事件模型的突发公共事件处理流程,并结合基于案例推理方法,探讨了基于元事件的突发事件推理处置流程,并给出了实际的案例进行了分析和验证。
(3)结合耗散结构和系统动力学的相关理论,针对突发公共事件,从耗散结构的角度对突发公共事件的发展演变过程进行了分析,并根据突发公共事件致灾强度、受灾环境状况和应急管理水平三个维度,构建了突发公共事件的三维状态方程,通过对其特征根的求解,分析事件系统平衡点的特性,以及这三个维度之间的相互影响,探讨了突发公共事件的发展变化情况。并对煤矿事故的数据进行了实例分析。通过事件演化的系统动力学模型的建立,使突发公共事件决策者从突发公共事件系统内部特征的角度加深对突发公共事件的理解,从而提高应对突发事件的能力。
以上研究结果是在实践的基础上,通过理论分析、提炼和抽象得到的,具有一定的普遍性和一般性。基于本文所获得的相关研究结果,已经在多个应急管理系统建设中进行应用,并取得了良好的效果。
Public emergencies management is an open and complex huge system, which is in the surrounding of natural, ecological, economy, society, and culture. Presently, research on public emergencies management can be divided into two aspects. On the aspect of macroscopic, the key research point is management system and mechanism. From the mechanism of emergency, scholars pay much more attention on how to build unified and highly-efficient emergency management system. On the aspect of microscopic, aiming at different event characteristics, experts pay more attention to the practices problems, such as preparedness organization, resource building, human evacuation, on-line assistant decision-making support, and so on. From technology aspects, realize information resources effective integration in the process of disposal emergency decision, and cooperate of each department for the better reply to emergencies.
Based on above two aspects, scholars have done more research on emergency management. However, it is no matter macroscopic research of management mechanism, or microscopic research of technology aspects, which exists these or those problems. Firstly, two kinds of research have some limitation. They research on certain emergencies, lacking of system construction and illustration from the view of ontology. Secondly, systemic research of emergencies occurrence, development, and evolution mechanism is still deficient.
Aiming at aforesaid problems, related field theory research is referenced here. Combing relative practice work during assiduously study doctor degree, this paper subdivided the public emergencies, put forward meta-event model, and analyzed the relationship among meta-events. Then, present the process construction of meta-event and disposal flow. Based on context and CBR theories, context analysis and context matching have been conducted, which can judge event development trends and assist decision analyzing. Furthermore, from the angle of dissipation and evolution, the evolution of single public emergencies has been analyzed. By analyzing elements of emergency and extracting key factors, this paper built state equation from the angle of chaos theory, which includes disaster-caused strength, surrounding factors, and emergency management level. And then, coal mines emergent accidents as experiment data, discussed and analyzed the parameter variations, validated the evolution of public emergencies. This paper has mainly done following research:
(1) According to all kinds of public emergencies, analyzed the construction of public attributes, extracted common attributes, adopted OWL ontology description language to construct based on ontology. Furthermore, subdivided and organized public emergency according with meta-event, studied the development and evolution of meta-event, and built meta-event model. It can help decision-maker build disposal schema rapidly according to meta-event model of history cases. Finally, gave an example to validate and illustrate.
(2) According to analyze public emergencies occurrence and coping process, combing with context theory, discussed disposal process of public emergency based on context, put forward to construct the process of meta-event, and presented public emergencies disposal process based on meta-event model. Combining with the method of CBR, discussed the reasoning disposal procedure, and gave an actual example to analyze and validate.
(3) Combing with the theory of dissipation and system dynamics, analyzed the development and evolution process from the view of dissipative structure. Then, from this three dimensions, that is, disaster-caused strength, surrounding factors, and emergency management level, constructed three-dimensional equation of state. Furthermore, solved the eigenvalue, analyzed the balance point characteristics of event system and interaction of three dimensions, discussed development and changes of public emergencies. Finally, gave an example of coal mine accident data. By building system dynamics model of event evolution, it deepens understanding of decision-makers to public emergencies from the view of event system internal characteristics, and strengthening response abilities.
By theory analysis, refining, and abstract, this paper got above results based on practice, and it has some universality and generality. Based on the results of this study, it has been applied to more emergency system construction, and achieved perfect results.
引文
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