摘要
经济学的研究方法可分为规范研究和实证研究。规范研究主要回答“应该是什么”这类问题，而实证研究主要回答“是什么”这个问题，它说明某一事物过去怎样，现在怎样，将来怎样。由于实证研究是以事实为依据的，它的正确与否可以通过事实的检验来评判，也就是说其研究命题是可驳斥的。与经济学的研究方法相似，会计研究方法也可以分为规范研究(Normative Research)和实证会计研究(Positive Research)。从我国的情况来看，在过去的很长一段时间内，会计研究的重点主要放在规范研究上。随着近些年会计理论和实践的发展，实证研究逐步被引入并推广，这对丰富会计研究的手段甚至对促进学科建设都大有好处。在此我们拟就财务分析方面作一些探讨。
随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善，市场体系日臻健全，上市公司日渐增多，投资风险也越来越大。投资者要准确、及时地掌握上市公司的经营状况和财务状况，必须利用上市公司的会计信息进行财务分析，但是在进行财务分析时，面临着众多的财务指标可供选择，由于不同的财务指标之间有着错综复杂的关系，有时几个指标从同一个侧面反映公司的经营状况和财务状况；有时，一个指标也可以从不同的侧面反映公司不同的经营状况和财务状况，这往往会造成投资者在进行财务分析时无所适从。因此，对上市公司的财务指标体系的建立显得尤为重要。
本项目主要的研究目的是从实证角度对上市公司的财务指标进行研究并分类，建立一套财务指标分析体系，达到用较少的财务指标反映较多信息量的目的，为投资决策者、企业经营者减少财务分析的工作量，增加财务分析准确性，提高决策效率。其研究的主要内容有：上市公司财务分析方法、上市公司财务指标分类的主要方、实证研究方法及相关统计方法、有关原始数据的处理、用实证方法及相关统计方法对财务指标进行分类、利用分类结果对上市公司进行综合评价(验证分类的有效性)等。
在本文中我们拟采用因子分析中主成分分析法对上市公司财务指标进行分类。主成分分析法是通过少数的几个主成分尽量代表全体变量的信息。如果原来的变量之间没有线性关系，那么得到的主成分将与原数据的变量一样多，达不到减少变量的目的。
Economic research methods can be classified into two categories: normative research and positive research. Normative research answers the kind of questions such as "what things should be", while the positive research answers the kind of questions such as "what it is." It explains events in three different stages: what it was in the past, what it is now, and what it will be in the future. Since normative research is based on real evidence in life, its soundness can be verified by the result of that event, which means its hypothesis can be invalidated.. Similar to economic research methods, accounting research methods can also be classified into two categories Normative Research and Positive Research. Based on past economic experiences in our country, accounting research methods mainly focus on normative research. Following accounting theory and practices developed in recent years, Positive research in the field of accounting gradually has been introduced and expanded. Its usage enriches accounting research me
thods and has contributed to scientific development. We are going to investigate the following example in the utilization of financial analysis.
After China entered the World Trade Organization, business management skills have faced many challenges. The soul of business management is financial management. The heart of financial management is financial analysis. Financial analysis plays an important role in a nation's financial, business, and investments. In the wake of prosperity of China's free market economy, the rules and regulations of our country continue to be perfected and adapted to accommodate these changes. More company and business investments are becoming high risk ventures. Investors in the market must have accurate and timely information regarding a company's management and financial situation. To obtain this information, investors must analyze financial statements of publicly traded companies based on their accounting information. However, investors face a difficult task when they attempt to analyze the financial status of a publicly traded company. This difficulty is due primarily to the vast number of financial indexes that an invest
or must choose from before making an informed decision. Since the relationship among financial indexes is very
complicated, investors may find index analysis somewhat difficult in evaluating a compiled index. A compiled index is essential in evaluating a company's management style and financial situation. Compounding this problem, companies and businesses utilize a non-standardized method of reporting financial indexes to manipulate the actual company's management and financial situation. As a result, investors feel overwhelmed, not knowing what to looking for or how to standardize their approach in analyzing financial indexes for potential investment. Therefore, it is very important to establish a financial index reporting system for every public traded company.
The goal of this research paper is to establish a financial analysis system by using positive research methods to study and categorize the financial index of publicly traded companies. This financial analysis system will include only important financial indexes, which represent the over all financial situation of that company. It can provide accurate financial information for investors and provide management additional tools in the decision-making process. This research includes the following topics: method of analyzing of a publicly traded company's financial situation, method of categorizing financial indexes of a publicly traded company, positive research methods, related statistical methods, and data analysis, using the results of categorization in evaluating publicly traded companies' overall financial situation, (testing validity of categorization) etc...
In this article, our major premise focuses on the methodology of analyzing and categorizing financial indexes of a publicly traded company. This analytical method uses a few key factors to represent overall change. If there is no line
引文
[1] 高文海，饶倩．上市公司财务状况分析方法浅析．经济论坛，2002，290(14)
[2] Gao Wenhai, Rao Qian, Zheng Geng. Principal Component Analysis as a Systematic Empirical Research Method of Financial Indices in Public Corporations. Proceedings of 2002 International Conference on Management Science & Engineering. Harbin Institute of Technology Press, 2002, 1752～1755
[3] 高文海．上市公司财务指标分类的实证研究方法——主成分分析法．河北科技大学学报(自然版)，已录用
[1] 陈晓．实证会计的理论框架和基本研究设计．见(In)：陈毓圭．财务学术前沿课题．北京：经济科学出版社，2002，120～132
[2] 陈力生．财务报表阅读与分析技巧．上海：文汇出版社．1999，144～176
[3] 张田余，陈凤．财务指标分类研究．见(In)：孙铮，李增泉．中国证券市场财务与会计透视．上海：上海财经大学出版社．2000，18～31
[4] 丘创，张新民．看报表，选股票．北京：中国经济出版社．2001，316～324
[5] 胡永宏，贺思辉．综合评价方法．北京：科学出版社．2000，22～39，70～89
[6] 徐国祥，檀向球，胡穗华．上市公司经营业绩综合评价及其实证研究．统计研究，2000，(9)：44～51
[7] 薛薇．统计分析与SPSS的应用．北京：中国人民大学出版社．2001，250～267
[8] 韩彦峰．主分量法在高校科研工作综合评估中的应用．数理统计与管理，1995，(2)：
[9] 曾卫．上市公司业绩综合评价模型的构建及应用．数量经济技术经济研究．2002(2)95～98
[10] 张爱民，祝春山，许丹健．上市公司财务失败的主成分预测模型及其实证研究．金融研究，2001，249(3)：10～25
[11] 傅荣林．主成分综合评价模型的探讨．系统工程理论与实践，2001，(11)：68～74
[12] 张朝宓，苏文兵．当代会计实证研究方法．大连：东北财经大学出版社．2001，198～215
[13] 温素彬．财务状况综合评价的因子模型法．淮海工学院学报，2001，10(2)：67～74
[14] 吴明隆．SPSS统计应用实务．北京：中国铁道出版社．2000，28～46
[15] James. Ohlson. "Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of bankruptcy", Journal of Accounting Research. Spring, 1980
[16] Mark. Zmijewski. "Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models", Journal of Accounting Research.Supplement, 1984
[17] 罗伯特．C．希金斯．财务管理分析(，沈艺峰译)．北京：北京大学出版社．1999
[18] 何晓群．现代统计分析方法与应用．北京：中国人民大学出版社．1999
[19] 王惠文．用主成分分析法建立系统评估指数的限制条件浅析．系统工程理论与实践．1996，16(9)24～27
[20] 杨维权，等．多元统计分析．北京：高等教育出版社．1989
[21] 刘贤龙．对企业经济效益综合指标数学模型研究．数理统计与管理，1990，(3)：49～55
[22] 陈湛本，等．主成分线性加权综合评估模型及其在经济系统中的应用．决策与决策支持系统，1994，(4)：92～99
[23] 程铁信，等．一种基于主成分分析方法的评价方法．系统工程理论与实践，2000，20(2)：118～121
[24] 梁梁，等．一种多层次指标体系综合评判的新方法．系统工程理论与实践，1991，11(9)：8～11
[25] 徐国祥，檀向球，胡穗华．建立上市公司业绩综合评价指标体系．中国证券报，2000，2，18
[26] 王冬梅．建立我国上市公司业绩综合评价指标体系．南开管理评论，2000，(4)
[27] 毛定祥．上市公司动态复合财务系数．数理统计与管理，2000，(1)
[28] Michel J.Gombola and J.Edward Kelz,A Note on Cash Flow and Classification Patterns of Financial Ratios,The Accounting Review Vol,4 1998
[29] Lyn M.Fraser, Aileen Ormiston Understanding Financial Statements,6th ed,2001
[30] William R.Dillon and Matthew Gokdstein,Multivariate Analysis: method and Applications,John Wiley&Sons, 1999
[31] 洪楠．SPSS for Windows统计分析教程．北京：电子工业出版社．2000
[32] 孙小爽等．多元统计分析．高等教育出版社，1994
[33] 王学仁等．实用多元统计分析．上海科技出版社，1984
[34] Mark.Zmijewski:"Methodologieal Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models".Journal of Accounting Research.Supplement, 1984