摘要
本文认为赫克歇尔—俄林模型及其发展没有考虑到需求及收入效应对制造业区域分工的影响,新经济地理学模型没有考虑到农村剩余劳动力的转移,中国现有的研究中没有考虑到要素区域流动的阶段性。本文基于这些主要缺陷建立了一个研究中国要素区域流动与制造业区域分工的分析框架。
本文把要素区域流动划分为三个阶段和两个均衡点,即资本转移优先于劳动力转移阶段、资本转移引致劳动力转移阶段、农村剩余劳动力城乡转移引致资本转移阶段,农村剩余劳动力枯竭的均衡点以及两个地区要素收益相等的均衡点。基于这个分析假设,本文分别对要素区域流动与制造业产业间分工和产业内分工关系进行了探讨。
在要素区域流动与制造业产业间分工方面,本文基于需求而非赫克歇尔—俄林模型的成本供给角度,利用赫克歇尔—俄林框架和收入支出函数相结合,通过要素区域流动、工业品价格变动对工业品超额需求与供给的替代效应和收入效应、要素价格等变量分析了一国之内发达地区与不发达地区要素区域流动与制造业产业间分工的关系。本文认为在其他要素不变的情况下,如果流动要素进入使用流动要素密集的产品部门,那么要素流动与产业间分工相互互补;如果流动要素进入非流动要素密集的产品部门,那么要素流动与产业间分工相互替代。而传统要素流动与产业分工理论认为,要素区域流动与产业区域分工相互替代;现代要素流动与产业区域分工理论认为,如果流动要素进入出口贸易部门,那么要素区域流动与产业分工互补,如果流动要素进入进口替代部门,那么要素流动与产业分工相互替代。
在要素区域流动与产业内分工方面,本文借助产品种类数、流动要素价格与数量、运输成本、中间产品等变量,分析了农村剩余劳动力转移阶段,发达地区与不发达地区要素区域流动与产业内分工的关系。本文认为,不同于新经济地理学模型结论,这个阶段农村剩余劳动力的流动可以有效地促进两个地区之间和地区内部的制造业产业内分工水平。不发达地区不需要依赖核心区的扩散效应,由于本身的农村剩余劳动力流动,就能够得到双核心的均衡解。
本文利用以上模型及框架,重点分析了我国东部和中西部1988—2006年劳动力、资本流动与制造业分工的关系。本文认为,总体来看,要素区域流动与制造业区域分工相互互补,不过不同要素在不同阶段作用权重会有所不同,而且在某些阶段会表现为替代关系和滞后效应。譬如在要素区域流动与两个地区间制造业产业内分工的关系中,劳动力流动在1988—1997、资本流动在1998—2006是替代关系;而劳动力流动对两大地区内部的制造业产业内分工在1988—1997年有两年的时间滞后效应。
本文认为,现阶段,除了采用产业政策促进地区制造业分工外,更要立足于要素流动和收入政策的作用,平衡竞争效应、发挥收入效应、缩短时滞效应、打破熟练劳动力市场垄断、合理规划非熟练劳动力流动、加速本地资本流动、防止外资的负面影响、推动产业的梯度转移应是深化我国制造业区域分工的重要措施。
Heckscher-Ohlin model and its development do not take into account demand and revenue effects on regional manufacturing division of labour and the New Economic Geography model also does not take into account the impact of the rural surplus labour flow. In China existing researches, the different stages of regional factors mobile were neglected. Based on these major defects, a framework to analysis the relationship between Chinese regional factors flow and regional manufacturing division has been established.
In this paper, regional factors flow is divided into three stages and two balance points, that is, capital transfers priority in the labor flow stage, the capital transfers arising from the labor flow stage, transfer of rural surplus labor between urban and rural areas force capital transfers stage. And one balanced point is depletion of rural surplus labour. The two balance point is that two regional factors income equal. Based on this analysis framework, manufacturing sector division and intra-industrial division are discussed.
When study on the relationship between mobile factors and regional manufacturing sector division, based on the demand rather than the cost of supply perspective in Heckscher-Ohlin model, combining Heckscher-Ohlin analysis framework with the income and expenditure functions, through regional factors flow, the substitution and income effects when industrial products price changes on excess demand and excess supply, factors price and so on, This paper analyses the relationship between regional factors flow and manufacturing division of developed regions and underdeveloped regions within one country.
In this paper, that other factor in the same circumstances, if mobile factor into the use of mobile factor-intensive products sector, then factor mobility and industrial division is mutually complementary; If mobile factor into the non-mobile factor-intensive products sector, factor mobile and industrial division is mutually alternative. The traditional factor mobile theory considered that industrial division and regional factor mobile is mutual substitution. Modern factor mobile theory considered that if mobile factor into the export trade sector, regional factor flow and regional industrial division is complement for each other; if mobile factor into the import substitution sector, industrial division and factor flow is alternative for each other.
When study on the relationship between mobile factors and regional manufacturing intra-industries division, through the product categories, price and the number of mobile factors, transportation costs, intermediate goods, and other variables, This paper analyzes the relationship between regional factors flow and regional manufacturing intra-industries division of developed and undeveloped regions at rural surplus factor stage. This article is different from the New Economic Geography model conclusions, at this stage; the flow of rural surplus factor can be effective in promoting the devision level of the manufacturing sector and intra-industrial within the two areas and between regions. Undeveloped regions do not need to rely on the proliferation effect of core area, because of their rural surplus labour. There will be dual-core balanced solution.
Using the above model and framework, the paper focuses on the relationship of labor, capital flows and manufacturing division between China eastern and western regions from 1988 to 2006. In general, regional factors flow and regional manufacturing division is mutual complementarity, but different factors at different stages the weights will vary. In some stage performance is as an alternative and lag effect. For example, on the relationship of the manufacturing sector division within the two regions, labor flows in 1988-1997 and capital flows in 1998-2006 are alternative, and labour mobility within the two major areas, for manufacturing intra-industrial division in 1988-1997, has a two-year time lag effect.
This article holds that at this stage, in addition to use industrial policies to promote regional manufacturing division, but also should be based on the factor mobility and on the income policy, the balance of competition, promoting income effect, shorten the time lag effect, breaking the monopoly of skilled labor market, rational planning unskilled labour mobility and speeding up the local capital flows, preventing the negative impact of foreign capital flows, promoting industrial transfer through gradient, and so on. These should be important measures to promote regional manufacturing division level of China.
引文
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