摘要
森林生态系统适应性管理，是基于森林生态系统的自然特性，注重过程管理，在森林生态保护中，引入适应性管理理念，在环境逐步恶化的严峻局势下，强调对冲突和干扰进行适应性调整的一种管理方法。应该说，森林生态系统适应性管理是森林保护和集约经营的方向。本课题来源于国家林业局“948项目”（森林生态系统适应性管理模式与技术标准引进2009-4-44）的支撑，本研究基于其他子课题研究成果的基础上，将研究范畴界定为森林生态系统适应性管理实施后，以森林水文为研究切入点，量化分析森林生态系统适应性管理后生态环境用水量对区域经济系统的影响。
本研究以区域复杂生态系统理论、适应性管理理论和投入产出分析理论为基础，从资源、环境和人才三个方面，对森林生态系统和区域经济进行关联度分析。本文研究范畴界定为森林生态系统适应性管理实施后，在此范畴内系统分析了森林生态系统适应性管理与经济发展之间的互动关系，适应性管理下研究区域生态功能，以及厘清森林生态系统适应性管理与区域经济系统之间的联动关系，并选取生态环境用水这一特征性关键要素，运用投入产出分析方法，进行量化测算森林生态系统适应性管理实施后的生态环境用水对区域经济系统产生的影响。
具体研究结果如下：
1.基于生态系统适应性管理的实施，从森林植被生态需水量的角度，进行研究区域城市生态环境用水量的测算与调整。利用修正后的P-M公式，对研究区域的森林蒸散量进行测算，并推算区域森林生态环境用水量。同时，利用多目标优化模型，对城市生态环境用水量进行优化，调整城市生态环境用水量。
2.构建和编制生态环境用水——社会经济投入产出表。基于传统社会经济投入产出表，将与生态环境用水有关的水资源使用/保护（WU/WP）和COD去除(e)等在生态用水环境账户内置，将生态环境用水WE（包括森林生态环境用水WEF和城市生态环境用水WEC）实行账户外挂共同构建生态环境用水——社会经济投入产出实物量表和价值量表等两种新形式投入产出量表。
3.开展生态环境用水对社会经济的关联性分析。基于生态环境用水——社会经济投入产出量表，对生态环境用水的直接消耗，完全消耗和完全需求进行分析，反映生态环境用水相关账户对社会经济系统的影响力和感应度。同时，本文还着重对生态环境用水效益和效率进行分析，选择20个用水量较大部门（行业）的用水特性，按照高产出高消耗，高产出低消耗，低产出高消耗，低产出低消耗，高产出潜在高消耗等5个特性进行分类。以2007年为例，研究结果显示，纺织业部门用水特性属于高产出高消耗；农业，化学工业部门用水特性属于高产出潜在高消耗。
4.构建生态环境用水——社会经济关联模型。基于Cobb-Dauglas生产函数和环境库兹涅茨曲线（Kuznets Curve），构建生态环境用水——社会经济关联模型。假设在技术条件不变的前提下，引入社会资本存量（K）、劳动力人数（L）和生态环境用水（WE）构建模型，模型以江苏省1997，2002和2007生态环境用水——社会经济投入产出表为依据，用社会资本存量的测算方法测算社会资本存量。利用Eviews6.0对生态环境用水——社会经济关联模型进行多元非线性回归，回归得到的模型类型符合库兹涅茨理论曲线，本文将其命名为生态环境用水库兹涅茨曲线，并计算生态环境用水的最大经济合理值。
The adaptive management of forest ecological system is based on the natural quality of thesystem. It emphasizes on the process management, and leads the adaptive management theoriesinto the forest ecological protection. It is also a management method which highlights theadaptive adjustment between conflicts and interferences. In fact, the adaptive management offorest ecological system directs the forest protection and intensive operation. This topic issupported by the “948project” of the State Forestry Administration, P.R.China. This paper isbased on the research results of the subsidiary topic. The aspect of this research is foresthydrology. After this system is carried off, this paper quantificatively analyzes the influence ofecological environment water consumption to regional economic system.
The regional complex ecological system theories, the adaptive management theories, andthe input-output analysis theories are the basis of this research, which also analyzes theconnection between the forest ecological system and regional economy, from the aspects ofresource, environment and talents. This paper systematically analyzes the interactiverelationship between the adaptive management of the forest ecological system and economicdevelopment after the adaptive management is carried off. Moreover, it researches the functionof the regional ecological system under the adaptive management, and clarifies the connectiverelationship between the adaptive management and the regional economic system. At the sametime, it selects the essential factor-the ecological environment water consumption, and appliesinput-output analysis method to quantificatively measure the influence on the ecologicalenvironment water consumption after adaptive management of the forest ecological system iscarried off.
The specific results are listed as the following:
1. Based on the adaptive management of the ecological system, this paper researches thecalculation and adjustment of the urban regional ecological environment water consumptionfrom the aspect of the forest vegetation ecological water consumption. It utilizes the correctedP-M to measure the ET of the region, and to calculate the regional forest ecologicalenvironment water consumption. Furthermore, it uses the multi-target model to optimize andadjust the urban ecological environment water consumption.
2. To construct and create the input-output chart of ecological environment waterconsumption-social economy. Make the use and protection of water resource(WU/WP) andremove the COD as categories of the account of the ecological water consumption and consider the ecological environment water consumption(WE) as the related category to create two newforms of input-output charts-object and value.
3. To analyze the interactive influence of the ecological environment water consumption tothe social economy. Based on the input-output chart of ecological environment waterconsumption-social economy, this paper analyzes the direct consumption, completeconsumption and complete demand, in order to reflect the influence and interaction of the socialeconomic system according to the related accounts of the ecological environment waterconsumption. Meanwhile, this paper emphasizes on the analysis of benefit and efficiency of thewater consumption. It selects20departments which demand larger amount of waterconsumption and classifies them according to the5different qualities which are highproduction and high consumption, high production and low consumption, low production andhigh consumption, low production and low consumption, high production and potential highconsumption. List the Year2007as an example, the results indicates that the quality of TextileIndustry is high production and high consumption; the quality of Agriculture and ChemicalIndustry is high production and potential high consumption.
4. To construct the related model of water consumption in the ecological environment-thesociety and economy, which is in accordance with the Kuznets Curve and based on theCobb-Dauglas production function. Hypothetically, the technical conditions are invariable, thisresearch considers the social capital, labor amount and water consumption as the factors toconstruct a model which refers to the input-output charts of water consumption of JiangsuProvince in the Year1997,2002, and2007, and calculates the social capital by using the socialcapital measurement method. This paper uses the Eviews6.0to Multivariate nonlinear regressthe model of ecological environment water consumption-society and economy. The result of theregression fits in with the Kuznets theory curve, therefore, this paper names it as the Kuznetscurve of the ecological environment water consumption, and calculates the maximum economicand reasonable value of ecological environment water consumption.
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