摘要
改革开放三十年以来,中国经济取得了举世瞩目的成绩,仅2009年,我国国内生产总值已达335353亿元。随着经济的高速发展,人民生活水平的提高,老百姓累积了越来越多的财富,根据国家统计局2009年国民经济和社会发展统计公报显示城乡居民人民币储蓄余额为260772亿元。而国内居民的投资途径单一,广大的居民把投资的注意力转向了日渐发展的中国证券市场。根据中国证监会2009年12月份市场统计报告,我国证券市场上股票有效账户已达1.203769亿户。然而近年来随着中国证券市场股指的大幅起落,个人投资者并未获取期望收益,而是再一次验证了中国股市的一句知名谚语“七亏二平一赢”。传统的证券投资基本分析和技术分析方法,受到越来越多的挑战和质疑,部分投资者把投资方法的运用转向获取内幕消息；然而结果却是与机构投资者的博弈中败下阵来。本文从中国股市目前市场主力(机构投资者)与个人投资者之间的博弈关系出发,研究短期内股价受博弈双方之间所持股票供求关系变化所决定的现实存在,分析了反应股票供求关系变化的载体,既隐匿在交易数据下主力与个人投资者之间的资金流入流出的情况,分析股价短期波动的机理。并根据市场公开数据,利用统计分析软件SPSS来验证主力资金进出对沪深股指、板块指数以及个股走势的主导作用。同时对资金流向分析法在实践运用中的适用性问题进行了总结。
本文内容共分为以下几个部分：第一部分为绪论,介绍选题的背景及意义,研究框架及方法；第二部分为中国股市简要介绍；第三部分是传统的基本分析法、技术分析法及其实践运用中的适用性问题。第四部分为资金流向分析法。第五部分是资金流向分析法的回归实证分析；第六部分是资金流向分析法在实际应用中的适用性问题；第七部分为结论。
Three decades of reform and opening, China has made remarkable economic achievements made only in 2009 China's GDP reached 33.5353 trillion RMB. With the rapid economic development, people's living standards improve, more and more people accumulate wealth, according to National Bureau of Statistics 2009 National Economic and Social Development Statistics show the disclosure of RMB savings deposits of urban and rural residents was 26.0772 trillion RMB. Way as a single investment of domestic residents, the majority of the residents to invest attention to the rapid development of China's securities market. According to China Securities Regulatory Commission in December 2009 statistics report, China's stock market, the stock has reached 1.203769 million households effectively account. However, in recent years with the sharp ups and downs of China's stock market index, individual investors did not obtain the expected return from stock market, once again proved China's stock market a well-known proverb "seven losses, two flat, one win.". Traditional fundamental analysis and technical analysis, questioned by more and more challenges, some investors turned their attention to access to inside information; but the result is that the game with institutional investors defeated. This paper studies the principle of the short-term fluctuations in stock price changes are determined by supply and demand, and with the empirical analysis, confirmed the decision of institutional money on the stock price effect. At the same time using the statistical software SPSS to validate the effect of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index, sector index and individual stock movements from the main fund. And this paper summary capital-flows analysis the issue of applicability in practice.
This content is divided into the following sections:The first part is an introduction, describes the background and significance of topics, research methods and innovation. Second part is the brief introduction to China's stock market. The third part is the traditional fundamental analysis, technical analysis and the application of issues. The fourth part is the basic content of Capital-flow Analysis. The fifth part is the basic premise of the analysis of Capital-flow Analysis. Part VI of the regression analysis of capital flows, empirical analysis; Part VII of the flow of funds analysis of the applicability of the practical application; the eighth part of the conclusion.
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