摘要
气候变化、海平面上升已成为全世界关注的焦点，大气环流会通过副热带环流变异影响海平面，也会直接影响局地海平面。由于目前对东中国海海平面的机制研究较少，因而本文从影响海平面变化的因素着手，对东中国海海平面变化进行研究。
本文利用Aviso卫星高度计资料和验潮站数据分析了东中国海1993—2011年海平面的变化特征及主要模态，研究海平面变化与ENSO的关系；基于以上结果，探讨东中国海海平面变化的机制；利用海洋模式POP对北太平洋、东中国海区域进行了改变风场条件模拟，重点阐述了北太平洋副热带环流变异对该海域海平面变化的影响，同时揭示了局地风在该海域海平面变化中的作用，主要得到以下结论：
1993—2011年期间东中国海海平面平均上升速率约3.8mm/yr，沿岸海平面上升剧烈，最大上升率可达11mm/yr。EOF分析结果显示，东中国海海平面前两个模态属于季节模态，第三模态与ENSO有关，第四、五模态则与东海黑潮联系密切，均为年际变化模态，累积方差达11%。海平面变化与ENSO的相关系数为-0.2，表明东中国海海平面的异常变化受ENSO影响。
利用POP模式对北太平洋进行控制试验和敏感性试验，结果表明：气候平均风场强迫的海流具有季节特征，而真实风场强迫的除季节变化外还有显著的年际变化。利用1989—2009年的真实风场强迫的结果与气候态风场强迫结果比较，强流存在的区域海平面变化剧烈。
受北太平洋上空风应力的影响，副热带环流通过影响北赤道流的流量影响黑潮流量。副热带环流的减弱会削弱黑潮源头处的流量，导致整个黑潮路径流量减少。东海黑潮通过与东海陆架水的交换影响东中国海的海平面变化，副热带环流变异通过影响黑潮对东中国海海平面的季节和年际变化产生影响，其中季节振幅约占T/P的46%；年际信号振幅贡献47%。
ENSO可通过黑潮流量变化影响东中国海海平面。研究发现ENSO期间，北赤道流与ENSO正相关0.6，北赤道逆流与ENSO正相关达0.7，黑潮源头与ENSO相关0.24，黑潮延伸体与ENSO相关达0.21。ENSO暖事件时，北赤道流、北赤道逆流、棉兰老流的流量都增加，三者共同作用促进厄尔尼诺的发展；拉尼娜期间，流量则减弱。
相关分析结果显示东中国海海平面与局地风的纬向分量有较好的负相关性，相关系数在0.5以上。受局地风影响黑潮流量变化具有区域性，从而局地风也可以通过影响黑潮流量影响东中国海海平面。模拟局地风对海平面的影响是季节作用占主导，季节的振幅贡献39%，趋势贡献约10%；局地风强迫的结果可以较好地反映东中国海海平面的季节分布形态。
Climate change and sea level rise has already become a central issue which wasattended by the people all over the world. Atmosphere circulation can affect sea levelby influencing subtropical gyre, also influence local sea level directly. As there is lessresearch about mechanism of sea level variation around the East China Sea (ECS).Considering different influencing factors sea level variation in ECS is researched.
Based on the Aviso altimeter data and tide gauge data, sea level variation of theEast China Sea (ECS) during1993to2011is studied, and the relationship betweensea level and ENSO is researched. Based on above results, mechanisms of sea levelchange in ECS are discussed. Changing wind conditions of different regions in POPexperiments, the influence of subtropical gyre anomaly in NP on sea level variationaround ECS is on research, and with analysis of effects of local wind on sea levelvariation. The main results are as follows:
During1993to2011, sea level of the ECS is in rise with an average rate of3.8mm/yr, the largest trend variation of sea level occurs in the China seacoast withmaximum rate11mm/yr. The results of EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Functions) showthat the first two modes attribute to seasonal mode, the third one is related to ENSO,and the fourth and fifth ones are closely related to Kuroshio in the East Sea of China.The last three modes are mainly interannual variation with cumulative variancecontribution of about11%. Sea level variation is related to ENSO with correlationcoefficient-0.2, which indicates that sea level variation in the ECS is influenced byENSO.
The controlling and sensitive experiments are carried out in NP using POP, theresults show that currents forced by climatological wind have seasonal characteristics,while there are both seasonal and interannual variations in gyre driven by real wind.The currents strength forced by real wind from1989to2009is weaker than thatforced by wind from1870to1976, which reveal that there is large change in wind ofrecent20years compared to past100years, the change can weaken the power of currents and affect regional sea level to change dramatically.
Influenced by wind stress in NP, subtropical gyre can influence the Kuroshioflow flux through affecting North Equatorial Current (NEC). As subtropical gyreweak, the reduced flux of Kuroshio origin can decrease the Kuroshio flux. Byexchanging shelf water the Kuroshio in the East Sea of China influences sea levelvariation in ECS. Subtropical gyre anomaly can influence seasonal and interannualsea level variations of ECS through changing the Kuroshio, in which simulatedseasonal amplitude accounts for46%, and interannual signal contributes47%.
It is found that during ENSO the NEC is negatively related to ENSO with-0.6,North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) is0.7in positive correlation with ENSO;the Kuroshio origin is to0.24, and the Kuroshio Extension0.21. As ENSO warmevent occurred, the flux of NEC, NECC and Mindanao Current was increased, thethree currents formed positive cycle to promote the development of El Nino; whereasduring La Nina the flux was weak.
The relationship between sea level in ECS and local wind is studied. Correlationanalysis shows that there is a good negative correlation between sea level and localzonal wind with coefficients more than0.5. Influenced by local wind, the Kuroshioflux changes regionally, and local wind can influence sea level variation in ECSthrough changing Kuroshio flux. The simulations show shat the influence of localwind on sea level variation is dominated by seasonal effects, on amplitude, seasonalcontributes about39%, and interannual less than30%with near10%contributions oftrend variation; simulated results with local wind can display its seasonal distributionpattern of sea level around ECS.
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