摘要
在全球经济充满不确定性的背景下,2010年全球零售额呈现非均衡缓慢增长,而中国零售业保持平稳快速增长,这得益于多种因素推动,包括居民收入持续增加、科学技术变革推动、城市化和工业化进程加快、居民消费结构升级以及国家一系列消费刺激政策的影响。“十二五”时期,中国制定加快转变经济发展方式和扩大内需发展战略,为零售产业发展带来前所未有的历史机遇。本研究基于消费者行为微观视角,分析研究中国零售产业如何在新的技术条件下有效竞争,以满足消费者更大效用,从而推动零售业态发展演进,以期为我国积极扩大消费内需提供理论依据和实践指导。
本研究主要以产业组织理论、零售产业组织演进理论、弹性理论、消费理论、消费者效用理论、消费者行为理论以及可持续发展理论为基础,对中国零售产业历史演进、发展特征、影响因素及作用机理展开了详细论述,在此基础上,构建了基于消费者行为的零售业态演进理论模型,通过问卷调查和实证研究,分析得出影响零售业态演进的消费者行为因素以及不同零售业态的演进趋势,最后结合中国消费者行为特征提出新形势下零售业态优化的对策建议。具体而言：
第一,系统梳理消费者行为与零售业态演进的相关理论。本研究以零售产业组织演进理论和消费者行为理论为主要理论基础,对零售业态的界定、零售业态结构、零售空间结构、基于消费者行为的零售业态演进等国内外相关文献进行了系统梳理,为构建本研究的理论模型奠定扎实的理论基础。
第二,全面总结中国零售产业的演进历程、发展特征、发展机遇、发展挑战及发展趋势。本研究对改革开放以来中国零售产业的发展划分为三个阶段进行历史回顾,并从规模、绩效、竞争、业态结构和区域结构五个方面概括总结了零售产业发展特征,分析了新形势下中国零售产业发展面临的机遇与挑战,提出六大发展趋势。
第三,合理构建基于消费者行为的零售业态演进理论模型。这是本研究的核心部分,提出零售业态演进是零售组织在新的技术条件下有效竞争并与消费者的需求升级实现均衡的结果。本研究选择从消费者行为的微观视角探索中国零售业态演进的影响因素及发展趋势,通过研究消费者行为影响因素、零售业态演进影响因素以及消费者行为对零售业态演进的作用机理,构建基于消费者行为的零售业态演进理论模型。
第四,实证研究基于消费者行为的零售业态演进的影响因素及优化趋势。本研究主要采用问卷调查、回归分析和结构方程模型分析等方法,实证检验了理论模型中提出的26个假设,其中13个假设得到支持,并得出4条基本结论：其一,传统型业态集中度受消费者的收入、品质偏好和便利偏好影响显著,业态优化空间较大,集中度相应提高；其二,复合型业态集中度受消费者的收入和服务偏好影响显著,业态竞争相对平稳,集中度呈下降趋势；其三,现代型业态集中度受消费者的学历、服务偏好、制度环境和金融服务水平影响显著,业态增速迅猛,竞争愈益深化；其四,商品组合受制度环境正向影响显著,商品结构向专业化和生态化方向提升。
第五,进一步分析中国消费者行为特征,结合国家“十二五”规划纲要、《“十二五”时期促进零售业发展的指导建议》和《质量发展纲要(2011-2020年)》,分别针对传统型业态、复合型业态和现代型业态的优化提出对策建议,同时提出应该处理好网点布局结构、城乡业态结构、市场竞争结构的平衡。
本研究可能的创新之处主要体现在三个方面：
1.本文研究视角的新意与特色在于,以消费者行为微观视角和多业态实证背景研究零售业态演进,有别于以往相关文献大多基于宏观和中观的研究视角,而少部分从消费者行为微观视角展开的研究多以单一业态为实证背景,原因可能在于,涉及消费者行为的变量多为多元尺度不可观测变量,由于消费者行为差异甚大,影响因素复杂,单一业态背景下的消费者行为具有显著同质性,便于开展研究。本文力图在多业态背景下探索消费者行为影响零售业态演进的一些共性,这为研究设计及数据获取带来较大难度。
2.本文研究内容和理论分析框架的新意与特色在于,提出零售业态演进是零售组织在新的技术条件下有效竞争并与消费者的需求升级实现均衡的结果。结合产业结构升级的绩效标准和过程标准,以供需均衡思想提出零售业态演进由产业竞争绩效提高和消费者效用提高共同决定,当二者都提高时,零售业态演进可实现帕累托最优。从而确定零售业态演进由业态集中度和商品组合两个维度构成,其中,业态集中度的衡量基于对零售业态的重新划分,即以需求弹性理论和消费者需求层次理论为基础,综合考虑商品需求价格弹性、消费者需求层次、经营形态组合程度和经营管理方式的技术水平四个因素,将零售业态划分为三大类,即：传统型业态、现代型业态和复合型业态,有效克服了因零售业态相互渗透而导致业态边界不明晰的研究困扰。此外,借鉴并修正了国外消费者行为的成熟分析框架E.K.B.Model,提出消费者行为由个人因素、内在心理因素和外部环境因素三个维度构成,同时外部环境因素也是内在心理因素的前因变量。
3.本文研究方法及应用的新意与特色在于,运用管理科学成熟的分析工具解决经济学分析框架下的问题。为克服研究问题的相对复杂性和数据获取难度大的困难,作者选择中国“两型社会”综合配套改革试验区长株潭城市群和武汉为研究样本,投入数月时间与行业知名咨询公司合作开发量表,组织大规模问卷调查,操作程序严谨规范,从而获得宝贵的一手资料,为实证研究提供可靠的数据基础。通过相关分析、回归分析和结构方程模型分析,本研究找到了基于消费者行为的零售业态演进的影响因素及发展趋势,为优化零售业态提出对策建议提供理论依据。
In the context of economy uncertainty, the global retail sales in2010showed slowly unbalanced growth while China's retail industry has maintained steady and rapid growth, owning to the promotion of a variety of factors including the continued increase of residents'income, the transformation of economic growth, the promotion of scientific and technological changes, the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization process, the upgrade of residents'consumption structure and the effect of a series of consumption stimulus policies. During the12th Five-Year Plan period, Chinese government has formulated the methods to accelerate the economic development transformation and the expanding domestic demand strategy, providing an unprecedented period of strategic opportunities for China's retail industry development. Based on a view from the micro-perspective of consumer behavior, this study analyzes and researches how China's retail industry promotes effective competition in the new technology conditions, improving consumer's utility, thus to realize the upgrade of the retail structure and provide a theoretical basis and practical space for the expansion.
In this study, we discussed the evolution of Chinese retail industry, including the development features, the influencing factors and the mechanism of actions mainly on the basis of Industry Organization Theory, Retail Industry Organization Theory, Elasticity Theory, Consumer Theory, Consumer Behavior Theory and Sustainable Development Theory. Based on this, we built a theoretical retail evolution model and generated the factors of consumer behavior that influence retail evolution and retail formats optimization trends through the questionnaire and empirical analysis. Finally we proposed some suggestions putting retail formats optimization forward on account of China's consumer behaviors features.
Firstly, we systematically organized the theories of consumer behavior and retail industry organization. Using the Retail Industry Organization Evolution Theory and Consumer Behavior Theory as the main theoretical basis to organize literatures related to the retail formats definitin, retail formats structure, retail space structure, and retail evolution based on the consumer, thereby laying the firm basis of building the theoretical model of this study.
Secondly, we generated a comprehensive summary of China's retail evolution history, development characteristics, opportunities and challenges it faced with and its development trends. For historical review, we divided development cource into three stages since the reform and opening up of China's retail industry. We summarized the development characteristics of retail industry from five aspects including the scale, performance, competition, formats structure and regional structure. Then we analyzed the opportunities and challenges China's retail industry faces in the new economic situation and put forward that China's retail industry presents six development trends.
Thirdly, we reasonablly generated a retail formats evolution theoretical model based on consumer behavior which is the core theoretical part of this study. We believed that retail formats evolution and optimization is the balanced results of formats competition under a newer technology condition meeting with consumer utility in a larger extent. Therefore, we chose to explore the retail formats evolution from the micro-perspective of consumer behavior. And then we analyzed the influencing factors as variables how consumer behavior influence retail formats, so as to build a theoretical analysis framework.
Fourthly, through practice we researched the impact consumer behavior has on retail formats evolution and optimization. We used the questionnaires and Structural Equation Modeling analysis to test26hypotheses proposed in the theoretical model and13of them are supported, and came four basic conclusions:First, the concentration of traditional formats, significantly influenced by consumers' income, quality preference, convenience preference, is correspondingly increasing and there is enough space for formats optimization. Second, the concentration of combined formats, tending to fall, is remarkably affected by consumer income and their service preference, and the formats competition is relatively stable. Third, the concentration of contemporary formats, rapidly growing, is largely influenced by the level of consumers' education, service preference, institution environment and financial service standard, and they are increasingly competitive. Fourth, the portfolio of commodities is signally and positively affected by the institution enviroment with the commodity structure improves to be specialized and ecological.
Fifthly, we further analyzed the consumer behavior features in China and proposed some suggestions aimed at the optimization of traditional formats, combined formats and contemporary formats, according to Guidance of the12th Five-Year Plan Period and Program of Quality Development (2011-2020). We also suggested it necessary to keep the balance of layouts structure of retail stores, formats structure in urban and suburb areas and market competition structure.
The innovation of this study is mainly reflected in three aspects:
1. That we choose to take a view from a micro-perspective to analyze the evolution of retail formats, so as to meet with the demand of the consumer needs and improve consumer utility. Unlike most the similar study based on macro and meso perspectives, this paper specialized in a micro-perspective. Moreover, a small amount of articles aiming at optimizing retail formats from the perspective of consumer behavior are always based only on one single format. The reason might be that the variables involved in consumer behavior are mostly multi-scale variables that are unobservable, the differences among customer behaviors are quite significant, the influenced factors are very complicated, and the design and data is really hard to deal with. This study spares no effort to conquer these difficulties mentioned before, chooses Two-Oriented Society to construct the experiment district as the data sample, takes the characteristics of urban consumer behaviors into account, cooperates with a consultant company to design the survey research, organizes questionnaire survey in large scales and operates it strictly regulate, so as to obtain the precious original data, providing a reliable data base for the empirical research.
2. In this study, we have a strict logical theory deduction of the influencing factors of consumer behavior, retail formats evolution and its mechanism of action. Unlike the researches done before, we classified the retail formats into3types as traditional formats, contemporary formats and combined formats taking4factors into account as the income-demand elasticity of products, the consumer demand levels that the products meet, the operation types combination degree and the technology levels using in retail management. Thus we came to the conclusion that the retail formats evolution is the equilibrium of the competition of the3types of retail formats on a new boundary line of technology supply. In addition, we evaluate the retail formats evolution by Pareto Optimality standard as improve both the industry performance and consumer utility, which means the inside effect and the external spillover effect of retail industry evolution. When both of the2conditions are improved, retail formats evolution can reach the Pareto optimal. The consumer behavior analysis framework in this study is based on the theory proposed by Engel, Kollat&Blackwell, namely, the consumer behavior consists of personal factors, intrinsic psychological factors and external environmental factors. Meanwhile, the external environmental factors are the antecedent variables of internal psychological factors.
3. We use the management analysis tools to solve the problem under the economics analysis frame. To conquer the relatively complicated problem and the difficulty on the access to data, we spent a lot of time on cooperating with a consultant company to design the survey, organizing questionnaire survey in large scales and operating it strictly regulate, and finally we obtain the precious original data, providing a reliable data base for the empirical research. On the other hand, through a series of correlation, regression and structural equation analyses, we find the influencing factors of retail formats evolution based on the consumer behavior and its development trends, which provide a theory base for the proposal for the retail formats optimization.
引文
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