摘要
粮食是关系国计民生的重要战略物质，粮食安全是世界各国都高度关注的问题，2006年以来发生的全球粮食危机更凸显各国粮食安全的重要性。而中国作为世界人口最多的发展中国家，实现作为经济安全的三大内容之一的粮食安全，面临着严峻挑战。本文紧密结合中国工业化、城市化和粮食国际化、市场化的实际，及中国粮食需求刚性增长而国内粮食增产缓慢、国际粮食市场紧张的背景，以《中共中央关于推进农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定》、《国家粮食安全中长期规划纲要（2008-2020年）》等文件精神为指导，综合运用统计学、国际经济学等多学科知识，从界定粮食供求紧平衡概念入手，围绕粮食供求紧平衡问题，对粮食供求基本特征、粮食供求紧平衡模型建立及指数测算、粮食供求紧平衡的调控原理和思路、供求紧平衡政策建议等方面进行了深入全面的研究。
1．粮食供求紧平衡概念及现实意义。（1）提出了粮食供求动态紧平衡的新内涵。既要确保粮食安全，又要使政府为粮食安全付出的成本最小，农民获得粮食价格的收益最大；既要确保国家粮食安全，又要最大限度的利用国际粮食市场，充分地间接引进国际土地资源和水资源；既要考虑粮食需求增长的刚性，又要考虑粮食生产受自然风险和市场风险而引起的波动性，并最大限度地消除这种刚性和波动性所带来的不平衡。（2）结合中国粮食市场实际，从理论和实证两个方面，分析了粮食的刚性需求特征、波动供给特征、生产弱质特征及价格波动特征。（3）分析国内外粮食市场形势，运用比较分析等方法研究指出，实现粮食供求紧平衡是缩小工农产品价格剪刀差的需要、提高农民收入和缩小城乡差距的需要、降低政府确保粮食安全成本的需要、有效利用国际土地资源和水资源的需要。尤为重要的是，由于我国加入WTO承诺对农业黄箱补贴不超过农业生产总值8.5%，因此降低粮食调控政策成本，对于避免与美国等国产生贸易摩擦，具有重大的现实意义。
2．粮食供求紧平衡模型与调控原理。（1）实现粮食紧平衡既要平衡短期粮食市场的波动，又要从长期来看增加粮食供给能力。这要求合理发挥市场与政府的调节作用，对于短期及小幅市场波动，应由市场来调节；政府要结合粮食国内外粮食市场实际，科学进行规划，预先对粮食供给、需求及价格进行调节，同时对于短期粮食市场波动进行调节。（2）在综述国内外各种粮食安全预警模型的基础上，根据分层动态的原则，借鉴FAO粮食安全的标准，建立了粮食安全动态紧平衡模型。即满足公式：LCt-1+LKt-1+△LJt+gt-1×Z－LXt=17%-18%，粮食处于安全的供求紧平衡状态。其中，LCt-1为上年度粮食产量增长率，LKt-1为上年度粮食储备率，LXt为本年度粮食消费增长率，△LJt为本年度粮食净进口率增量，Z为粮食价格指数，gt-1为粮食供给价格弹性指数。（3）通过对20世纪90年代以来中国粮食供求状况及调控政策的比较分析发现，虽然中国2005年以前国家还没有提出供求紧平衡的调控思路，但是事实上供求紧平衡规律一直在发挥作用。（4）对粮食供求指标的调控原理。实现安全的粮食供求紧平衡，需要对粮食产量增长率、需求增长率、净进口率增量等进行调节。而对指标的调节方式分为三种，分别是事后调节、预先调节、长期调节。而对各指标如粮食供给增长率、需求增长率及净进口率的调节，要求我们根据各指标的影响因素进行调节。
3．粮食安全动态紧平衡指数测算及调节。（1）分析了影响粮食供给增长率的各种因素，建立计量模型定量分析各因素对粮食产量的影响；运用历史数据测算得出，为实现安全的粮食供求紧平衡，粮食产量增长率均值应取1.50%。（2）分析了影响粮食需求增长率的因素，主要有人口增长率、城镇人口增长率、人均收入增长率、石油价格指数等等；根据1986-2008年的历史数据测算，为实现安全的粮食供求紧平衡，粮食需求增长率均值取1.86%。（3）分析了我国粮食净进口率不断增加的趋势，提出了衡量各粮食品种对粮食净进口率影响的公式，进而分析指出，大豆是造成我国粮食净进口率不断增加的重要因素。运用历史数据测算得出，粮食净进口增长率增量均值为0.32%。分析指出，提高进口能力应是确保未来我国粮食安全的重要途径。（4）分析了影响粮食供给价格弹性的诸多因素，建立计量经济模型测算粮食供给价格弹性指数为0.1221。（5）分析了粮食储备的作用及影响因素，根据紧平衡模型及指数值，测算出了粮食总储备率均值为（16～17）%。
4．粮食供求紧平衡的调控思路与政策建议。（1）建立粮食供求紧平衡调控机制。建立粮食供求紧平衡调控机制要求，短期内粮食生产量并非多多亦善。要采取措施，对粮食供给、需求、消费、储备、贸易进行综合调节，实现政策短期效果与长期效果的统一。（2）建立粮食供求紧平衡调控机构。分析指出当前粮食行政管理体制存在多部门调控和多级政府调控措施不协调的缺陷，为此应建立统筹调控管理机构、完善政府经济服务职能和调控能力。（3）建立粮食供求紧平衡预警体系。根据动态平衡预警模型，建立包括信息源系统、信息分析系统和信息反馈系统在内的粮食供求紧平衡预警体系。（4）增强粮食综合生产能力建设。要增强粮食综合生产能力，应通过加强水土资源保护开发来稳定粮食生产能力、农业组织创新来提高粮食生产能力、农业基础设施建设来夯实粮食生产能力、粮食主生产区建设来增强粮食生产能力、生产资料供给来挖掘粮食生产能力、农业自然灾害防御来保护粮食生产能力、非粮食物资源开发来补充粮食生产能力。（5）增强国际资源利用能力。要增强国际资源利用能力，应构建资本利用平台，促进粮食产业发展；构建技术利用平台，推进粮食科技进步；构建资源利用平台，有效利用国际资源；构建风险管理平台，有效化解粮食安全风险。（6）增强粮食市场平衡能力。要建立粮食安全风险管理体系，系统管理粮食生产、流通、消费等各方面的风险；要建立多元化粮食储备体系，提高储备粮的调控能力，降低储备调节的成本；要加强粮食物流体系建设，提高“北粮南运”的物流效率；要建立粮食安全的政府责任体系，明确中央与地方政府的责任分工。（7）增强宏观政策调控能力。要通过加强横向与纵向一体化联合，促进粮食产业化经营，并反对市场垄断以促进公平与效率；要提高农业财政投入比重，完善财政投入的支出结构，完善财政投入机制；要建立目标价格和反周期补贴制度为核心的新型价格补贴体系，完善粮食价格调控；要根据粮食生产外部性理论，建立外部效应内部化的粮食主销区利用补偿机制；要引导社会公众调整膳食结构，控制粮食加工业的过快发展，加大措施减少粮食浪费，建立完善粮食节约机制。（8）增强特殊群体粮食保障能力。增强特殊群体粮食保障能力，增强其粮食可得性，是确保粮食安全的重要举措。为此，必须要建立农村贫困人口粮食安全援助机制、城市贫困人口粮食安全援助机制、受灾群体粮食安全援助机制及社会弱势群体粮食安全援助机制。
The grain is so colossal strategic material that grain security is highly concernedby all countries in the world. The food crisis since2006has revealed the importanceof national grain security. China, as a famous developing country in the word, willface severe challenges to take grain security as one of the three economic securities.This paper closely connects with Chinas industrialization, urbanization and grain’sinternational rigid growth of the actual market, and China’s high demand for grainwith low domestic grain production, the tension of the international grain market.Under the guidance of “Decisions of a Number of Major Issues of the CPC CentralCommittee on Promoting Rural Reform and Development”, and “long-term plan ofnational food security”, using statistics, international economics, and othermulti-disciplinary knowledge, this paper forms the points of the tight balance betweengrain supply and demand. The grain supply and demand problems are concernedintensively from the following aspects: basic characteristics of grain supply anddemand, modeling and index calculation of the tight balance between grain supplyand demand, regulation principles and ideas of the tight balance between grain supplyand demand, policy recommendations.
The discussion of the conception and the practical significance of tight balancebetween grain supply and demand include three parts. The first part is that the newconcept of dynamic equivalence of grain supply and demand is proposed. It means weshould not only ensure grain security, but also minimized cost the government paidfor the grain security, and ensure that farmers access maximum benefits. We shouldnot only ensure national grain security, but also maximized use of the internationalgrain market by fully introducing international land resources and water resourcesindirectly. We should not only consider the rigidity of the growth in the demand forgrain, but also the volatility caused by natural grain production and market risks, andto maximize the elimination of the imbalances brought about by such a rigid andvolatility. In the second part,combined with the reality of China’s grain market, itanalyzes from both theoretical and empirical aspects analysis the characteristics of therigidity of grain demand, fluctuations in supply, weakness of grain production andprice volatility. In the third part,through the analysis of the domestic and internationalgrain market situation, taking comparative analysis studies, this paper has pointed out that the tight balance between grain supply and demand is to meet the following needs:reducing the price between the industrial and agricultural, raising farmers’ income andnarrowing the gap between urban and rural areas, reducing the cost that Governmentspent on grain security, and effectively using international land and water resources.What’s more important is that we have accepted that the subsides on agriculturalproduction will not exceed8.5%of the gross agricultural amber box subsidies on theoccasion of being adopted as a member of WTO, thus reducing the cost of graincontrol policies has practical significance to avoid trade friction with the UnitedStates and other countries.
The discussion of the model and regulation principle about the tight balance ofgrain supply and demand concludes four parts. In the first part,we find that it isnecessary to balance the short-term fluctuations of the grain market and increase thefood supply capacity in the long run for achieving tight balance of the grain. Thisrequires the regulatory of the market and the government is reasonable. The marketshould regulate short-term and minor market fluctuations; the government shouldcombine the actual situation of grain market at home and abroad, make scientificplanning, adjust the supply, the demand and the price of the grain in advance, at thesame time regulate the short-term fluctuations in the grain market.In the secondpart,with summarizing various early warning models of grain security at home andabroad basing on hierarchical dynamic principles, drawing on FAO food securitystandards, I establishes dynamic tight balance model of grain security. The modelsatisfies the formula:LCt-1+LKt-1+△LJt+gt-1×Z－LXt=17%~18%, the grain in tightsupply and demand equilibrium is security, LCt-1represents for the previous year’sgrowth rate of grain production, LKt-1represents the previous year’s rate of grainreserves, LXtrepresents this year’s growth rate of grain consumption,△LJtrepresentsthis year’s net grain-importing rate increments, Z represents the grain price index, gt-1is grain price elasticity of supply index.In the third part,by comparative analysis ofChina’s grain supply and demand conditions and regulatory policies since the1990s,we discover that though our country did not raise the ideas of supply and demandbalance regulation before2005, the fact is that the laws of supply and demand tightbalance play a role all the time.
The discussion of the estimation and adjustment of the index of grain securitydynamic tight balance include four parts. In the first part,the various factors to affectthe growth rate of the grain supply are analyzed and the measurement model isestablished to analyze the impact of various factors on grain production. For achieving tight balance of the safe grain supply and demand, the average growth rateof grain production should be measured as1.50%by using historical data. In thesecond part,the factors are analyzed that affect the growth rate of grain demand, suchas the population growth rate, urban population growth rate, per capita income growthrate, oil price index, etc; for achieving tight balance of the safe grain supply anddemand, the average growth rate of grain demand should be measured as1.86%byhistorical data in1986-2008. In the third part,we analyzes the increasing trend of netgrain-aperture ratio, and puts forward the formula measuring the impact of the grainvarieties on net grain-importing rate, and then points that soybean is the importantfactor to increase net grain-importing. The historical data estimates that the averagegrowth rate of incremental net grain-importing is0.32%. The analysis points out thatimproving the capacity of grain import is an important way to ensure China’s grainsecurity in the future.In the fourth part, we analyzes many factors that affect the priceelasticity of grain supply, on this basis, an econometric model is established, whichestimates the elasticity index of grain supply price is0.1221. In the fifth part,weanalyzes the role and impact factors of grain reserves, and estimates the total grainreserve rate is (16~17)%according to the tight balance model and the index value.
The discussion of the principles and ideas to ensure the tight balance between thesafe grain supply and demand include eight parts. The first part is the establishment ofregulatory mechanisms of tight balance between grain supply and demand.It requiresthat more grain production is not better in the short term. It needs to take measures forcomprehensive regulation of the grain supply, demand, consumption, reserves, trade,achieve the unification between short-term effects and long-term effects of policy.The second part is the establishment of the regulatory agencies of tight balancebetween grain supply and demand. The analysis points out that the current grainadministration system has some defects in multidisciplinary regulation anduncoordinated muhi-tiered government regulation measures, so co-ordinate regulationmanagement agencies should be established to improve the government’s economicservice functions and the ability to regulate and control. The third part is theestablishment of early warning system of grain supply and demand tight balance.According to the dynamic equilibrium warning model, the system includes theinformation source systems, information analysis system and information feedbacksystem. The fourth part is the construction of the comprehensive grain productioncapacity. The grain production capacity can be stabilized by strict protection andrational use of arable land and water resources, improved by innovating the agriculture organization, reinforced by intensifying the agricultural infrastructure,strengthened by enhancing the construction of the main grain production area, minedby supply the capital goods, protected by defensing agricultural natural disaster,complemented by developing non-grain material resources.The fifth part is that theutilization capacity of international resource must be enhanced. It need to buildcapital utilization platform for promoting the development of the grain industry; buildtechnology utilization platform for promoting the advancement of grain technology;build the platform of resource utilization for effectively using international resources;build risk management platform for effectively resolving the grain security risk. Thesixth part is that the grain market balance ability must be enhanced. The grain securityand risk management system must be created for systematically managing the grainrisks of production, distribution, consumption and other aspects. A diversified grainreserve system should be established for improving the regulatory capacity of thegrain reserves and reducing the cost of adjusting reserves. The construction of grainlogistics system should strengthen for improving the logistics efficiency in which theNorth grains are transported to the south area. The government responsibility systemof grain security should be established for clearly dividing the responsibilitiesbetween the central and local governments. The seventh part is that the ability ofmacro-economic control should be enhanced. Strengthening the joint of horizontaland vertical integration promotes the food industrial management, fairness andefficiency by opposing the monopolization of the market. The measures improving theexpenditure structure of the financial investment, and the mechanism of financialinput, should be done to raise the proportion of agricultural financial investment.Establishing target prices and counter-cyclical subsidy system as the core of the newprice subsidy system, can improve the regulation of grain prices; according toexternal theory of grain production, the use of compensation mechanisms in the grainsales areas should be build by internalization of external effects. The food-savingmechanism should be established and improved by leading the public to adjust thediet, controlling excessive development of grain processing industry, and increasingmeasures to reduce food waste. The eighth part is that food security capacity ofspecial group should be enhanced. Enhancing food security and food availability ofspecial groups are important measures to ensure food security. For this reason, wemust establish the grain security assistance mechanisms of the rural poor, the urbanpoor, the affected groups, and socially vulnerable groups.
引文
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