摘要
近三十年来,我国农村劳动力持续大规模向城市转移,引起了各界对粮食安全与农业发展的广泛担忧。劳动力外出务工到底给农户的农业生产带来了什么样的影响?哪些方面的影响较严重,哪些方面的影响较轻微?这些影响的内在机制是什么,可以如何消除?学界众说纷纭,并无统一的答案。
本研究基于2009年在江西省四个县的实地调研数据,以农户为分析单元,在微观层次上考察了劳动力外出务工对农户农业生产多个方面的影响。在前人研究的基础上,区分了各种务工模式影响的差异,并将劳动力回流也纳入分析的范围；从集体农业基础设施投资、村庄经济发展水平、家庭生命周期等视角揭示了务工所带来的要素禀赋变化对农户农业生产产生影响的传导机制；着重分析了务工所引起的农业生产结构调整这一前人研究较少关注的问题。
实证结果表明,务工户持一种“务工与本地非农劳动相互替代”的收入策略。总体上他们的农业收入受家庭成员流出的影响并不大,但其中劳动力流失的消极作用与汇款流入的间接补偿作用体现得非常明显。务工户倾向于转出少量农地,但其农地供给的有效性依赖于当地农业基础设施的好坏。在相对富裕的村庄,家庭成员外出务工会导致农户减少农业资产投资；而在相对贫穷的村庄,农户的农业生产性投资受务工的影响不显著。不论是产出还是投入抑或是农业商品化率角度的分析都显示,务工户的农业生产结构发生了改变。他们更重视劳动力相对不密集的水稻生产并更少参与其它农业生产活动,劳动力外出务工给农户的资金支持并未促使他们生产更多资金相对密集的农产品。
从水稻生产上看,务工汇款的流入可帮助农户投入更多的资金要素,促进农业产出水平提高；而劳动力流失对产出的负面作用则主要通过集体农业基础设施投资水平来体现；年轻的农户会因为务工汇款的保障作用而轻视农业生产,但处于生命周期晚期的农户则仍会用心地经营农业生产。
本地务工和外地务工对农户农业生产各方面的影响存在很大差异。这主要是因为本地务工对家庭劳动力的约束作用更小,并且比外地务工更加稳定、能为农户提供更好的非农收入保障。此外,研究还发现,回流劳动力倾向于放弃传统的农业生产,从事专业的家禽畜养殖及一些非农小事业,并转出农地。
研究结果表明：首先,目前我国的农村劳动力转移已经到了“刘易斯拐点”Ⅲ为了将劳动力进一步从农业中解放出来,政府必须加紧制定措施促进农业生产技术革新,加快农业生产方式转变。其次,为了减小劳动力外出务工对农户农业生产的消极影响,政府必须坚持实施粮食直补政策,使农民产粮有利可图；加强农资购买环节的补贴,以鼓励农户更多使用资金要素,提高生产力；调整过去由村集体投资为主的政策,提高上级财政支农资金中基础设施建设投入的比重,快速改变农村地区集体农田水利等基础设施供给严重不足的现状。再次,应加快产业结构向内地欠发达地区调整转移的步伐,推进小城镇化建设,促进县域经济繁荣发展,为农村劳动力提供更多的当地非农就业机会,加快务工农户真正脱离农业的步伐。第四,要大力培育有知识、懂技术的新一代农民,促进农业技术进步,防止农业后继无人。最后,需加大对回流劳动力创业的信贷支持和政策扶持,帮助他们发展资金相对密集的家禽畜饲养产业与非农小事业。同时,大力发展县域经济,为回流劳动力实现非农再就业创造有利条件。
Grain security and agricultural development have caused public concern as massive labor was flowing away from farm in the past three decades, whereas they are crucial for national stabilization. Was the out-migration of labor hindering or fostering agricultural production in rural communities that migrants leave and how was agriculture impacted? What is subordinate to agriculture sustainability? And what is by now more serious, needed to be solved immediately? Still, little is understood.
This dissertation was developed to answer these questions with household level evidences. Based on a field survey carried out in summer 2009 at four counties in Jiangxi province, the influence of labor migration on each aspects of agricultural production was analyzed systematically. Proceeding from previous researches, some progressive work was done. Firstly, we distinguished different forms of migration including return migration, considering their heterogenic impact on agricultural production. Secondly, we explored the underlying functional mechanism of labor lost and remittance on several important perspectives such as village level infrastructural investment, local economic development status and household life cycle. Thirdly, we made special efforts in understanding the structural adjustments of agriculture caused by migration, which receives little concern in past researches.
Empirical results suggest that migrant households substitute migration for local non-farm work as their income strategy. Agricultural income does not fall when household members leave home because remittance can compensate for the labor lost by stimulating crop production.
Evidences from all perspectives consistently suggest that migrant households are moving from cash crops and livestock production into cereal production. That is, labor constraint has played an evident role in the structural adjustment in agriculture among migrant families; however, increased access to credit is not associated with expansion of capital intensive production. All these reasons contribute also to a stronger tendency to lease out farmland among migrant households. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of their land supply depends on sufficient investment on agriculture infrastructure at village level. Farmers, especially those at richer villages, will cut down investment on agriculture as family members flow out to the city.
Take rice production as an example, we find that more fertilizer and pesticide inputs significantly promote the productivity of migrant households who receive remittances, while the passive effect of labor lost on agricultural productivity dominants only when infrastructures are poor. Young farmers will marginalize agricultural production in contrast to old farmers because they can expect more credit support from migrants.
Among all above mentioned impacts exerting on agricultural production, clear differences exist between long distance and short distance migration because the former exerts a stronger downward pressure on agricultural labor supply while providing less nonfarm income insurance. Further more, the evidences also show that return migrants are more likely to lease out farmland and leave traditional agriculture, in order to allocate more resources to livestock production or small nonfarm enterprises.
Some policy implications can be drawn from our findings. Firstly, the Lewis Turning Point has come for Chinese rural labor transfer under the traditional agricultural circumstance. Much should be done by the government in order to release more labors from agriculture. To achieve this goal, the government ought to speed up in taking measures to improve the production technology and transform the traditional production mode. Secondly, to reduce the negative effect of labor emigration on agricultural production, the government should stick to the direct-subsidy policy which makes the crop production profitable and should encourage farmers to use more capital factors by enforcing the subsidy when they buy agricultural inputs. Also they have to switch from village-level investment to upper-governmental fiscal support in building up the agricultural infrastructures to enhance more sufficient supply in rural district. Thirdly, the government should fasten the pace in transferring the industry to less-developed inner district, improving small town establishment and county economy, so that more non-farm employment opportunities can be generated and thus migrant households can really leap out of agricultural field. Fourthly, new generation of farmers should be equipped with knowledge and skills, thus facilitating the technological progress in agriculture and making agriculture sustainable. Lastly, with reference to entrepreneurship of return migrants, sufficient supports in credit and policy should be provided, aiding them to pursue capital intensive agriculture activities and non-farm businesses. Besides, the government should strive to develop county economy, in order to nurture favorable condition for these entrepreneurships.
引文
1关于元分析方法及其应用可见：Stanley & Jarrell (1989)、Phillips (1994)等。
2 Wouterse对这种差异的解释是,不同类型务工户家庭内部劳动力的性别配比不同。虽然最近有研究否定了中国农业女性化的言论(de Brauw,2008),但是在中国外出务工劳动力中,男性仍占较高的比例(Zhang & de Brauw,2004)。由于农业生产性别分工的客观存在,这将很可能对农业生产力及其技术效率产生影响。
[1]Abdulai, A.,& Crolerees, A. Determinants of income diversification amongst rural household in southern Mali. Food Policy,2001,26(4),437-452.
[2]Adams, R.H. Remittances, investment and rural asset accumulation in Pakistan. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1998,47(1),155-173.
[3]Adams, R.H.& Alfredo, C. Remittances, household expenditure and investment in Guatemala. World Development,2010,38(11),1626-1641.
[4]Amemiya, T. Multivariate regression and simultaneous equation models when the dependant variables are truncated normal. Econometrica,1974,42(6),999-1012.
[5]Astorga, L.,& Simon, C. Agricultural commercialization and the growth of a migrant labor market in Mexico. International Labor Review,1989,128(6),520-525.
[6]Azam, J. P.,& Gubert, F. Those in Kayes:The impact of remittances on their recipients in Africa. Revue Economique,2005,56(6),1331-1358.
[7]Banker, R. D., Charnes, A.,& Cooper, W. W. Some models for estimating technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis. Management Science,1984,30(9),1078-1092.
[8]Barbieri, A. F., Carr, D. L.& Bilsborrow, R. E. Migration within the frontier:the second generation in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Population Research and Policy Review,2008,28(3),291-320.
[9]Beaudouin, P. Economic impact of migration on a rural area in Bangladesh. University of Paris, Working Paper,2006.
[10]Becker, G S. Human Capital:Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education. New York:Columbia University Press,1975.
[11]Cameron, A. C.,& Trivedi, P. K. Regression analysis of count data. London: The Cambridge University Press.1998,76-84.
[12]Coelli, T. J. A guide to DEAP 2.1:A data envelopment analysis program. CEPA Working Paper,1996,8.
[13]Coelli, T. J. A multi-stage methodology for the solution of orientated DEA models. Operations Research Letters,1998,23(3),143-149.
[14]Conway, D.,& Cohen, J. H. Consequences of migration and remittances for Mexican transitional communities. Economic Geography,1998,74(1),26-44.
[15]Croll, J.,& Huang, P. Migration for and against agriculture in eight Chinese villages. The China Quarterly,1997,149(2),1128-146.
[16]David, R. Changing Places:Women, Resource Management and Migration in the Sahel:Case studies from Senegal, Burkina Faso, Mali and Sudan. London: SOS Sahel.1995,127-131.
[17]De Brauw, A. Seasonal migration and agriculture in Vietnam. ESA Working Paper,2007,07-04.
[18]De Brauw, A., Huang, J., Rozelle, S., et al. The Evolution of China's rural labor markets during the reforms. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(2),329-353.
[19]De Brauw, A., Li, Q., Liu, C., et al. Feminization of agriculture in China? Myths surrounding women's participation in farming. The China Quarterly,2008, 194(2),327-348.
[20]De Brauw, A.,& Rozelle, S. Migration and household investment in rural China. China Economic Review,2008,19(2),320-335.
[21]De Hann, A. Livelihood and poverty:The role of migration—A critical review of the migration literature. Journal of Development Studies,1999,36(2),1-47.
[22]Deininger, K., Jin, S., Demeke, M., et al. Market and Non-market Transfers of Land in Ethiopia:Implications for Efficiency, Equity, and Non-farm Development. World Bank Policy Working Paper,2003,2992.
[23]Due, J., Magayane, F.,& Temu, A. Gender again:views of female agricultural extension officers by smallholder farmers in Tanzania. World Development, 1997,25(5),713-725.
[24]Durand, J., Kandel, W., Parrado, E. A., et al. International migration and development in Mexican communities. Demography,1996,33(2),249-264.
[25]Dustmann, C.,& Kirchkamp, O. The optimal migration duration and economic activities after return migration. Journal of Development Economics,2002, 67(2),351-372.
[26]Fuss, M.,& McFadden, D. Production economics:A dual approach to theory and applications. Netherlands:North Holland Publishing Company,1978,220-262.
[27]Green, W. H. Econometric analysis (5th edition). New Jersey:Prentice Hall. 2002,116-148.
[28]Heckman, J. J. Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica, 1979,47(1),152-161.
[29]Hildebrandt, N.,& McKenzie, D. The effects of migration on child health in Mexico. Economia,2005,6(1),257-289.
[30]Kuiper, M. Village modeling:A Chinese recipe for blending general equilibrium and household model. Ph. D. Thesis, Wageningen University,2005.
[31]Lauby, J.,& Stark, O. Individual migration as a family strategy:Young women in the Philippines. Population Studies,1988(42),473-486.
[32]Lewis, W. A. Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor. The Manchester School,1954,22(2),139-191.
[33]Lipton, M. Migration from rural areas of poor counties:the impact on rural productivity and income distribution. World Development,1980,8(1),1-24.
[34]Lucas, R. E. B. Emigration to South Africa's mines. American Economic Review,1987,77(3),313-330.
[35]Ma, Z. Urban labor-force experience as a determinant of rural occupation change:Evidence from recent urban-rural return migration in China. Environment and Planning A,2001(33),237-255.
[36]MaCarthy, N., Carletto, G., Davis, B., et al. Assessing the impact of massive out-migration on agriculture. ESA Working Paper,2006,6-14.
[37]Massey, D. S. Understanding Mexican migration to the United States. American Journal of Sociology,1987,92(6),1372-1403.
[38]Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G, et al. Theory of international migration:A review and an appraisal. Population and Development Review,1993,19(3), 431-466.
[39]McKenzie, D.,& Rapoport, H. Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality:Theory and evidence from Mexico. Journal of Development Economics,2007 (1),1-24.
[40]Mendola, M. Migration and technological change in rural households: Complements or substitutes. Journal of Development Economics,2008, 85(1),150-175.
[41]Miluca, J.,& Carletto, G. The vanishing farms? The impact of international migration on Albanian family farming. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,2007,4367.
[42]Mincer, J. Unemployment effects of minimum wages. Journal of Political Economy,1976,84(4),87-96.
[43]Mines, R.,& de Janvry, A. Migration to the United States and Mexican rural development—a case study. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1982, 64(3),444-454.
[44]Mochebelele, M. T.,& Winter-Nelson, A. Migrant labor and farm technique efficiency in Lesotho. World Development,2000,28(1),143-153.
[45]Munshi, K. Networks in the modern economy:Mexican migrants in the U. S. labor markets. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2003,118(2),549-599.
[46]Murphy, R. Return migrant entrepreneurs and economic diversification in two counties in South Jiangxi, China. Journal of International Development,1999, 11(4),661-672.
[47]Nichols, S. Technology transfer Through Mexican migration. Grassroots Development,2004,25(1),27-34.
[48]Oberai, A. S.,& Singh, H. Migration, production and technology in agriculture: A case study in the Indian Punjab. International Labor Review,1982,121(3),327-343.
[49]Phillips, J. M. Farmer education and farmer efficiency—A Meta-Analysis. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1994,43(1),149-165.
[50]Pingali, P.,& Rosegrat, M. Agricultural commercialization and diversification processes and policies. Food Policy,1995,20(3),171-185.
[51]Quisumbing, A. R. Male-Female differences in agricultural productivity:Methodological issues and empirical evidence. World Development,1996,24(10),1579-1595.
[52]Quisumbing, A. R.,& McNiven, S. Moving forward, looking back:The impact of migration and remittances on assets, consumption and credit constraints in rural Philippines. ESA Working Paper,2007,07-05.
[53]Rozelle, S., Taylor, J. E.,& de Brauw, A. Migration, remittances and agricultural productivity in China. American Economic Review,1999,89(2),287-291.
[54]Schmook, B.,& Radel, C. International labor migration from a tropical develop frontier:globalizing households and incipient forest transition. Human Ecology, 2008,36(6),891-908.
[55]Singh, I., Squire, L.,& Strauss, J. A Survey of Agricultural Household Models: Recent Findings and Policy Implications. World Bank Economic Review,1986, 1(1),149-179.
[56]Stampini, M.,& Davis, B. Does nonagricultural labor relax farmers'credit constrains? Evidence from longitudinal data for Vietnum. Agricultural Economics,2009,40(2),177-188.
[57]Stanley, T. D.,& Jarrell, S. B. Meta-regression analysis:A quantitative method of literature surveys. Journal of Economics Surveys,1989,3(2),161-170.
[58]Stark, O. Research on rural to urban migration in less developed countries:the confusion frontier and why we should pause to rethink afresh. World Development,1982,10(1),63-70.
[59]Stark, O. The migration of labor. Cambridge, MA:Basil Blackwell.1991.
[60]Stark, O.,& Bloom, E. The new economics of labor migration. The American Economic Review,1985,75(2),173-178.
[61]Stata Corp. Stata user's guide release 10. Texas:Stata Press,2007.
[62]Taylor, J. E. Undocumented Mexico-US migration and the returns to households in rural Mexico. The American Journal of Agricultural Economics,1987(69), 626-638.
[63]Taylor, J. E. Remittances and inequality reconsidered:Direct, indirect, and inter-temporal effects. Journal of Policy Modeling,1992,14(2),187-208.
[64]Taylor, J. E., Arango, J., Hugo, G., et al. International migration and community development. Population Index,1996,62(3),397-418.
[65]Taylor, J. E., de Brauw, A.,& Rozelle, S. Migration and incomes in source communities:A new economics of migration perspective from China. Economic Development and Cultural Change,2003,52(1),75-102.
[66]Taylor, J. E.,& Dyer, G. Migration and sending economy:A disaggregated rural economy wide analysis. University of California, Davis, Working Paper,2006.
[67]Taylor, J. E.,& Martin, P. L. Human capital:Migration and rural population change. In Rausser, G,& Gardner, B. Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Vol.1. New York:Elsview Science Publishers.2001,457-511.
[68]Taylor, J. E.,& Yunez-Naude, A. The returns from schooling in a diversified rural economy. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2000,82(2), 287-297.
[69]Todaro, M. P. A model of migration and urban unemployment in less developed countries. The American Economic Review,1969,59(1),138-148.
[70]Todaro, M. P. Internal migration in developing countries:a survey. Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1980,361-402.
[71]Woodruff, C.,& Zenteno, R. Migration networks and micro-enterprises in Mexico. Journal of Development Economics,2007,82(2),509-528.
[72]Wouterse, F. S. Migration and technical efficiency in cereal production: Evidence from Burkina Faso. IFPRI Discussion Paper,2008,815.
[73]Wouterse, F. S.,& Taylor, J. E. Migration and income diversification:Evidence from Burkina Faso. World Development,2008,36(4),625-640.
[74]Wu, H. X.,& Meng, X. The impact of the relocation of farm labour on Chinese grain production. China Economic Review,1997,7(2),105-122.
[75]Wu, H. X.,& Meng, X. Do Chinese farmers reinvest in grain production. China Economic Review,1997,7(2),123-134.
[76]Yilma, T., Berg, E.,& Berger, T. The agricultural technology-market linkage under liberalization in Ghana:Evidence from micro data. Journal of African Economies,2008,17(1),62-84.
[77]Zhang, L., de Brauw, A.,& Rozelle, S. China's rural labor market development and its gender implications. China Economic Review,2004,15(2),230-247.
[78]Zhao, Y. Causes and consequences of return migration:Recent evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30(2),376-394.
[79]Zhao, Y. The role of migrant networks in labor migration:The case of China. Contemporary Economic Policy,2003,21(4),500-511.
[80]白南生,宋洪远.回乡,还是进城?.北京：中国财政经济出版社,2002,121-122.
[81]蔡防.破解农村剩余劳动力之谜.中国人口科学,2007(2),2-7.
[82]蔡昉.中国人口流动问题.郑州：河南人民出版社,2000,71-72.
[83]曹光乔,周力.农业机械购置补贴对农户购机行为的影响——基于江苏省水稻种植业的实证分析.中国农村经济,2010(6),38-48.
[84]陈风波,丁士军.农村劳动力非农化与种植模式变迁——以江汉平原稻农水稻种植为例.南方经济,2006(9),43-52.
[85]陈欣欣.农业劳动力的就地转移与迁移——理论、实证与政策分析.博士学位论文,浙江大学,2001.
[86]程恩江,徐忠.中国农民工国内汇款服务问题研究报告.世界银行扶贫协商小组报告,2005.
[87]范群芳,董增川,杜芙蓉等.随机前沿生产函数在粮食生产技术效率研究中的应用.节水灌溉,2008(6),30-33.
[88]费景汉,拉尼斯[美].劳动剩余经济的发展.北京：经济科学出版社,1992.
[89]高小贤.当代中国农村劳动力转移及农业女性化趋势.社会学研究,1994(2),83-90.
[90]郭剑雄,李志俊.劳动力选择性转移条件下的农业发展机制.经济研究,2009(5),31-41.
[91]郭剑雄,李志俊.劳动力选择性转移条件下的农业发展机制.经济研究,2009(5),31-41.
[92]国家人口计生委流动人口服务管理司.提前返乡流动人口调查报告.人口研究,2009(2),1-3.
[93]韩俊,崔传义,范皑皑.农村剩余劳动力微观调查.http://www.drcnet.com.cn/ DRCNet.Common. Web/Doc View.aspx?docld=1617644&leafld=14168&chnld= &version=Integrated&viewMode=content,2007.08.02.
[94]贺振华.农户外出、土地流转与土地配置效率.农业经济导刊,2006(11),157-158.
[95]宏涛,张梅.农业保险经营模式的经济学分析.农村经济,2004(10),71-72.
[96]胡鞍钢,吴群刚.农业企业化：中国农村现代化的重要途径.农业经济问题,2001(1),9-21.
[97]黄守宏.产业与区域间劳动力转移问题研究.管理世界,1996(1),199-208.
[98]黄祖辉,胡豹,黄莉莉.谁是农业结构调整的主体?——农户行为及决策分析.北京：中国农业出版社,2005,152.
[99]康雄华,王世新,刘武等.农地流转决策影响因素分析.安徽农业科学,2007,35(13),4034-4036.
[100]孔祥智,方松海,庞晓鹏等.西部地区农户禀赋对农业技术采纳的影响分析.经济研究,2004(12),85-95.
[101]黎红梅,李波,唐启源.南方地区玉米产量的影响因素分析——基于湖南省农户的调查.中国农村经济,2010(7),87-93.
[102]李成贵.中国农业结构的形成、演变与调整.中国农村经济,1999(5),18-24.
[103]李谷成,冯中朝,占绍文.家庭禀赋对农村家庭经营技术效率的影响冲击——基于湖北省农户的随机前沿生产函数实证.统计研究,2008(1),35-42.
[104]李旻,赵连阁.农村劳动力流动对农业劳动力老龄化形成的影响——基于辽宁省的实证分析.中国农村经济,2010(9),68-77.
[105]李强,毛学峰,张涛.农民工汇款的决策、数量与用途分析.中国农村观察,2008(3),2-12.
[106]廖洪乐.中国南方稻作区农户水稻生产函数估计.中国农村经济,2005(6),11-18.
[107]刘承芳,张林秀.农户农业生产性投资影响因素研究--对江苏省六个县市的实证分析.中国农村观察,2002(4),34-42.
[108]刘克春.粮食生产补贴政策对农户粮食种植决策行为的影响与作用机理分析——以江西省为例.中国农村经济,2010(2),12-21.
[109]刘彦随,陆大道.中国农业结构调整基本态势与区域效应.地理学报,2003,58(3),381-389.
[110]陆文聪,朱志良.农地流转供求关系实证分析——以上海为例.中国农村经济,2007(1),45-51.
[111]罗芳.农业剩余劳动力城乡流动对农村经济社会的影响.博士学位论文,华中科技大学,2007.
[112]骆东奇,周于翔,姜文.基于农户调查的重庆市农村土地流转研究.中国土地科学,2009(5),47-52.
[113]马怀礼.新“三农”问题的出现及其解决的基本思路.长沙：首届湖湘三农论坛论文集(中),2008,91-101.
[114]马忠东,张为民,梁在等.劳动力流动：中国农村收入增长的新因素.人口研究,2004(3),2-10.
[115]毛学峰,刘靖.农地女性化还是老龄化?——来自微观数据的证据.人口研究,2009(2),69-80.
[116]钱忠好.非农就业是否必然导致农地流转——基于家庭内部分工的理论分析及其对农户兼业化的解释.中国农村经济,2008(10),13-21.
[117]孙巍,杨庆芳,杨树绘.产出资源配置效率的参数测度与非参数测度及其比较分析.系统工程理论与实践,2006(6),118-122.
[118]谭丹,黄贤金.区域农村劳动力市场发育对农地流转的影响——以江苏省宝应县为例.中国土地科学,2007,21(6),64-68.
[119]陶然,徐志刚.城市化、农地制度与迁移人口社会保障——一个转轨中发展的大国视角与政策选择.经济研究,2005(12),1-35.
[120]王凤山.关于民工潮的思考.经济研究,1994(4),31-34.
[121]王克亚.河南省农村人口流动及其对流出地经济发展的研究.博士学位论文,河南大学,2009.
[122]王美艳.劳动力迁移对中国农村经济影响的研究综述.中国农村观察,2006(3),70-79.
[123]王勇.我国农业结构演变的驱动因素分析研究.安徽农业科学,2007,35(28),9057-9059.
[124]夏莉艳.农村劳动力流失对农村经济发展的影响及对策.南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,9(1),14-19.
[125]徐增文.农村劳动力流动与农村劳动力流失.中国农村经济,1995(1),51-53.
[126]许志方.水资源的节约和利用.中国水利,2000(12),19-25.
[127]杨佳.湖北省农村土地承包经营权流转市场研究.博士学位论文,华中农业大学,2009.
[128]展进涛,陈超.劳动力转移对农户农业技术选择的影响——基于全国农户微观数据的分析.中国农村经济,2009(3),75-84.
[129]张军,何寒熙.中国农村的公共产品供给：改革后的变迁.改革,1996(5),50-57.
[130]张蕾,陈超和展进涛.农户农业技术信息的获取渠道与需求状况分析——基于13个粮食主产省份411个县的抽样调查.农业经济问题,2009(11),78-84.
[131]张务伟,张福明,杨学成.农业富余劳动力转移程度与其土地处置方式的关系——基于山东省2421位农业转移劳动力调查资料的分析.中国农村经济,2009(3),85-90.
[132]张晓波,杨进,王生林.中国经济到了刘易斯转折点了吗?——来自贫困地区的证据.浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2010(1),54-72.
[133]张永丽,黄祖辉.新一代流动劳动力的特征及流动趋势——来自甘肃省10个样本村的调查与分析.中国人口科学,2008(2),80-87.
[134]张忠明.农户粮地经营规模效率研究.博士学位论文,浙江大学,2008.
[135]章铮.从托达罗模型到年龄结构——生命周期模型.中国农村经济,2009(5),43-51.
[136]郑风田,程郁.从农业产业化到农业产业区——竞争型农业产业化发展的可行性分析.管理世界,2005(7),72-81.
[137]钟太洋,黄贤金,陈志刚.区域农地市场发育对农业商品化的影响——基于农户层次的分析.经济地理,2009(3),461-465.
[138]钟涨宝,余建佐,李飞.从农户农地流转行为看农地流转的制约因素——以广西省南宁市马山县为例.乡镇经济,2008(7),38-41.