摘要
IPCC(政府间气候变化专门委员会)评估报告指出,人类活动碳排放所引起的全球暖化已经对人类社会和经济发展形成重大影响,并且如不改善,这一影响将持续扩大。当前全球暖化已成为国际热点,2007年达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上,气候变化问题超过恐怖主义、阿以冲突和伊拉克问题成为压倒一切的首要问题。2003年,英国在能源白皮书《我们能源的未来：创建低碳经济》中首次提出“低碳经济”的概念,这一概念随后被世界各国所采用,发展低碳经济、实现可持续发展,当今已成为国际共识。我国在面对全球暖化所带来的环境约束的同时,有着自身经济特点,经济发展和工业化是我国当前经济发展的主要任务,低碳经济的中国含义在于实现经济增长与碳排放的分离,产业低碳化发展是我国低碳经济发展的战略选择。本研究以陕西省为例对我国产业低碳化经济发展分九部分进行了研究：
第一部分绪论。内容主要包括低碳经济的提出和意义,低碳经济研究的历史演进,通过不同学者、政府和国际组织对低碳经济认识的归纳得出低碳经济的三重含义,通过对我国经济发展阶段和产业低碳化发展内涵的分析指出,对于我国发展低碳经济的重点在于产业低碳化,最后提出了本文所要研究的问题和全文技术路线。
第二部分文献综述。以递进关系分别对马克思资源环境理论研究、低碳经济研究和产业低碳化发展研究进行了文献的梳理,得出了本文的研究边界,即丰富马克思资源环境理论并以其为指导,论证产业低碳化作为我国低碳经济的战略选择,科学选择产业低碳化发展道路,并寻找每条道路的实施路径,最后构建我国的产业低碳化发展机制。
第三部分理论基础。对本文的所应用的理论基础进行了研究。首先基于马克思社会总资本再生产理论关于价值补偿和实物补偿的内涵,对其进行扩展,引入了资源环境部类,形成了包括资源环境部类、生产资料部类和生活资料部类三个部类的社会总资本再生产循环过程,为低碳经济研究提供了基本的理论基础；其次,基于OECD提出的脱钩理论和Tapio对其的发展,设计了基于逻辑因果链的产业低碳化因素分析框架,包括减排因素、节能因素、产业价值创造因素和产业发展因素,对本文的产业低碳化分析提供了基础；第三,对本文政策机制设计的基础理论,基于科斯定理的排污权交易理论,进行了简要说明。
第四部分低碳经济的战略选择。首先对我国碳源进行了比较,接着对区域发展低碳经济的战略选择进行了科学化的分析,基于IPAT模型构建了包含城市低碳化、消费低碳化、产业低碳化和能源低碳化等四个维度的低碳经济发展战略选择模型,并以陕西省为例进行了案例分析,得出了陕西作为我国低碳经济发展典型地区应当以产业低碳化为战略重点发展低碳经济,对全文预设研究方向进行了确认。
第五部分产业低碳化发展的道路选择。采用结构分析的Divisia Index Decomposition方法对区域产业总体产业碳强度的影响因素进行分析,得出结论,产业碳强度和产业结构对总体碳强度都有着重要影响,两者交替影响各年的总体碳强度变化,降低区域产业总体碳强度需要两方面同时入手。通过基于脱钩弹性的历史趋势分析,对当前趋势下区域产业总体碳强度变化和2020年减排目标进行了缺口分析,得出结论,按照目前态势减排目标不能实现,需要进一步的政策治理和改善。通过碳强度、碳排放总量比较和产业发展弹性分析,得出了地区碳强度治理的重点产业是高排放、高能耗、支柱性的交通运输业、能源化工业、非金属矿物质制品业和有色冶金业；通过碳强度、边际碳强度比较和是否符合战略性新兴产业要求,得出了地区产业结构调整的重点产业是电子及通讯设备制造业、装备制造工业、医药制造业和清洁能源发展。
第六部分高排放产业碳强度降低的因素分析。基于第三章提出的弹性逻辑因果链分析框架构建了产业低碳化影响因素的分析模型,对交通运输业、能源化工业、非金属矿物质制品业和有色冶金业等高排放、高耗能的经济支柱产业进行了逐一分析,得出结论：从产业节能入手进行低碳技术开发和产业减排治理应当作为这些产业低碳化发展的关键；研究对我国产业总体碳强度降低的道路之一——高排放产业降低碳强度,提供了解决的入手点。
第七部分战略性新兴产业规模发展的可持续性分析。对区域产业总体碳强度降低的另一条道路——以战略性新兴产业发展改善产业结构——进行了分析研究,探讨这一道路的可持续性。通过格兰杰因果检验方法对对电子通讯及设备制造业、装备制造业和医药制造业等战略性新兴产业关于产业规模、产业GDP和产业碳强度的关系进行了实证分析,对清洁能源发展进行了定性分析,得出结论：战略性新兴产业扩张不仅不会导致产业碳强度增高,相反会导致产业碳强度降低；战略性新兴产业扩张不仅不会导致产业GDP下降,相反会导致产业GDP提升；因此通过战略性新兴产业规模扩大的道路改善产业结构具有可持续性,其同时会不断增强战略性新兴产业的低碳化优势。
第八部分产业低碳化实现机制研究。基于马克思社会总资本再生产理论和排污权市场理论,在对国际碳市场机制一般归纳的基础上,构建了基于低碳经济中国含义的我国碳市场基本框架,框架以高能耗支柱性工业企业和战略性新兴产业为主体,以碳强度作为配额基础,包含了核查机制、调控机制和履约机制的碳排放交易机制,为我国产业低碳化发展的两条道路建立了可行的政策诱导机制。
第九部分政策建议。对我国低碳经济典型地区陕西提出了产业低碳化发展的政策建议,包括：大力推进产业节能,坚持发展和环境两手抓；大力发展战略性新兴产业,积极推进产业结构调整；大力发展清洁能源,实施能源替代战略；尽快建立陕西碳排放交易市场,推进产业低碳化发展机制改革。
最后,对全文研究给出概括性结论,同时提出研究中的可能创新点、研究中的缺陷和进一步研究的领域。本文主要结论包括：
第一,碳排放与经济发展相分离是低碳经济的中国含义。低碳经济存在三重含义,即第一重,碳排放与经济发展相分离；第二重,在确定碳排放下实现经济发展；第三重,依靠人类应对全球暖化的契机大力发展节能减排和碳汇产业,带动本国经济发展。三重含义具有不同适用性,我国作为一个发展中国家,正在经历工业化所带来的高速经济发展,化石能源消费增长不可避免,同时,我国也必须面对全球暖化、能源危机和低碳下的国际竞争新秩序形成,不论从历史经济的发展阶段,还是从社会发展的公平性,低碳经济的第一重含义都适于我国,是低碳经济的中国含义。陕西在我国具有典型性,适合我国的低碳经济含义。
第二,产业低碳化是我国低碳经济发展的战略重点。工业化是我国目前的发展阶段,并且这一过程还远未完成,农村剩余劳动力依然广泛存在；以工业为主导的制造业碳源仍然是我国碳排放的主体,本文通过对IPAT模型的变形,以陕西省为例论证了以工业为主导的产业低碳化发展维度是我国发展低碳经济的战略选择。
第三,降低区域产业总体碳强度需要产业碳强度和产业结构两个方向的同时努力。通过对我国发展低碳经济典型地区陕西十种支柱产业从1998年到2008年总体碳强度变化的分解分析,可以发现产业碳强度和产业结构交替对总体碳强度变化起到决定性作用,两者不可替代,降低产业总体碳强度需要两个方向的同时努力；通过基于1998年到2008年产业总体碳排放与经济产出的脱钩趋势对陕西2020年产业总体碳强度进行预测,结果发现按照目前态势,以陕西为代表,我国到2020年实现减排承诺目标困难巨大,需要进一步的采取措施。
第四,高排放产业降低碳强度的重点在于加强节能。降低产业碳强度的重点应针对对高排放和高能耗的经济支柱产业,基于碳排放总量、碳排放强度和产业发展弹性的判断,得到了陕西应主要治理的高排放产业：交通运输业、能源化工业、非金属矿物质制品业和有色冶金业；弹性因果链框架对于分析产业低碳化原因具有解释能力,通过对节能弹性、减排弹性和价值创造弹性的分解分析,得出结论：节能对碳强度变化具有决定性或主要影响,并且在大部分年份呈现降低碳强度的作用,减排对碳强度变化影响较小,并且在大部分年份呈现提高碳强度的作用,产业的价值创造能力对于大部分产业都呈波动性(有色冶金业除外),说明的产业价值创造能力在产业间具有均衡性,尽管个别年份对碳强度变化有决定性,但长期对产业碳强度降低影响不大。因此对于高排放产业,节能因素是决定碳强度变化的关键,从产业节能入手进行低碳技术开发和产业减排治理应当作为这些产业低碳化发展的关键。
第五,战略性新兴产业的规模发展不会影响其改善产业结构的能力。改善产业结构的重点应针对低碳和具有发展潜力的战略性新兴产业,通过基于碳强度和发展潜力的选择,电子通讯及设备制造业、装备制造业、医药制造业和清洁能源应作为发展的重点产业；通过对产业规模、产业GDP和产业碳强度的实证分析,得出结论：一是产业扩张不仅不会导致产业碳强度增高,相反会导致产业碳强度降低；二是产业扩张不不仅不会导致产业GDP下降,相反会导致产业GDP提升；因此,应坚持基于战略性新兴产业规模扩张的方法,实现产业结构的尽快改善。
第六,马克思主义经济学对于低碳经济具有解释能力。长期以来的理论探讨由于不能将资源环境的实物补偿、预付资本和社会平均利润取得纳入理论体系,导致了很多人对马克思主义基本原理的理解困难。本研究将资源环境纳入马克思主义经济学,扩展了马克思社会总资本再生产理论,形成资源环境部类、生产资料部类和生活资料部类三大部类的循环。低碳经济的实现本质就是对资源环境部类预付资本、剩余价值和平均利润实现的保证,是资源环境部类价值补偿和实物补偿的实现,基于这一原理,本文提出了通过政府对资源环境部类进行价值补偿和价值再分配的政策思路。
第七,碳交易市场机制是实现我国减排目标所应采取的政策机制。市场经济体制下对资源环境部类进行价值补偿和价值再分配的机制包括排污税和排污权交易,其中前者由于政府不具备估计企业边际收益和边际成本的能力而执行不易,基于科斯定理的排污权交易具有优越性,可以保证减排目标的实现。通过对国外排碳交易市场的归纳,得到我国的碳交易市场应由交易主体、配额机制、核算机制、履行机制等几部分组成,其中交易主体应是来自高排放产业和战略性新兴产业的规模以上企业,交易配额以碳强度为基础,配额划分依据产业的历史基础和政策导向,并应结合减排目标,以公共基金作为调控管理机构,交易市场包括现碳市场和期碳市场。
Reports of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) pointed, global warming caused by carbon emissions of human activities has significant influence to social and economic development, and if no improve, this effect will continue to expand. Currently global warming has become a hotspot. On the 2007 international conference of world economic BBS in Davis, climate change had overpowered terrorism, Arab Israeli conflicts and Iraq and had became the overriding priority. In 2003, the British used the" low carbon economy "concept in the energy white book:our energy future:create low-carbon economy ".Then this concept has been used all over the world. The development of low carbon economy and sustainable development has become the international consensus today. In the face of global warming, our country has its own economic characteristics. Economic development and industrialization is the main task of current economic development in China. The China's meaning of Low-carbon economy lies in separation of economic growth and carbon emissions. Low-carbonization of industrial development is strategic choice of low-carbon economic development in China.In this research, we take Shaanxi province as an example, divided into nine parts for our industrial low carbonization economic development.
The first part is the introduction. Main content includes introduction and significance of low-carbon economy, historical evolution of low-carbon economic research, and triple meaning of low-carbon economic cognition proposed by different scholars, government and the international organization.Through to know economic developing stage of our country and connotation of industrial low-carbonization, this paper points out that the key of low-carbon economy focus on industrial low-carbonization, which is the main problem of this paper.
The second part is literature review. Though researching Marx's resources and environment theory, low-carbon economic research and industrial low-carbonization, we obtained the boundary, namely enriching Marx's resources and environment theory and taking it as the guiding, demonstrating industrial low-carbonization and taking it as the strategic choice, selecting developing road of industrial low-carbonization, and searching for implement of each way, and finally constructing developing mechanism of low-carbonization.
The third part is theoretical basis. First, based on Marx's total social capital reproduction theory, we expanded value compensation and physical compensation,introduced resources environment category, and formed cycle among resources environment category, production category and living category, which provides theoretical basis for low-carbon research; Second, based on the decoupling theory proposed by OECD and its development proposed by Tapio, we design elastic causal chain of industrial low-carbonization including reduction factor, energy-saving factors, industrial value creation factor and the industrial development factors; Third, based on the pollution-discharge right trade theory of Coase Theorem, we design policy mechanism.
The fourth part is strategic choice of low-carbon economy. First, we compare carbon sources of our country, and then analyze regional development of low-carbon economic strategy. Based on IPAT model, we construct four dimensions of low carbon economic development model:the city low-carbonization, consumption low-carbonization, industrial low-carbonization and energy low-carbonization, and take Shaanxi province as example, obtain the conclusion:Shaanxi should take industrial low-carbonizations as strategic focus.
The fifth part is path selection of industrial low-carbonization. We adopt Divisia Index Decompositions to analyze influential factors of carbon intensity of regional industry, and draw the conclusions:industrial carbon intensity and the industrial structure have the important influence to overall carbon intensity, and both alternately influence changes of overall carbon intensity. Based on the historical trend analysis of decouple elasticity, carbon intensity change of current regional industry, and the gap analysis of 2020 reduction targets, we get the conclusions:According to current situation emissions reduction, targets cannot come true and need further policy. Through the compare among the carbon intensity, total carbon emissions, and industrial elasticity, key industry of regional management are high emissions transportation, energy industry,Non-metallic minerals products industry and nonferrous metallurgy industry; Through the compare of carbon intensity and marginal carbon intensity, key industry of industrial structure adjustment are electron and communication equipment manufacturing, equipment manufacturing industry and pharmaceutical industry.
The sixth part is factors analysis of carbon intensity reduction. Based on elastic logic causal chain analysis proposed by the third chapter, we get the framework of industrial low-carbonization influence factor,and analysis transportation, energy industry, non-metallic minerals products industry and nonferrous metallurgy industry etc.Finically, we draw a conclusion:low-carbon technology and industrial energy saving are the key for industrial low-carbonization.
The 7th part is sustainable with scale development of strategic emerging industry. We analyzed another road of regional industrial carbon intensity that improving industrial structure and explored sustainability. Through the method of granger causality test, we draw a conclusion:strategic emerging industrial expansion will not lead to increased industrial carbon intensity, on the contrary, and will cause the low carbon intensity, etc. Therefore, scale expanding of strategic emerging industry is sustainability to industrial structure, and will constantly strengthen low-carbonization advantage.
The 8th part is research on industrial low-carbonization realization mechanism. Based on Marx's total social capital reproduction theory and carbon market theory, and international carbon market, we construct carbon market basic framework which takes industrial enterprises and strategic emerging industry as main body, takes the carbon intensity as quotas foundation, contains carbon emissions trading mechanism, the verification mechanism, regulation mechanism, and build viable policy induction mechanism for two roads industrial low-carbonization.
The 9th part is policy suggestions. The paper puts forward policy suggestions of Shaanxi industrial low-carbonization including:advancing industrial energy-saving, adhere to the principle of development and environment; developing strategic new industry, actively promoting industrial structure adjustment, etc.
Finally, we draw the conclusions and puts forward innovation points, the defects and further research areas. Main conclusions in this paper include:
First, the detachment of carbon emissions and economic development is China's meaning of low-carbon economy. Low carbon economy exist triple meaning:first, separation of the carbon emissions and economic development; second, economic development under carbon emissions; third, depending on human tacking global warming opportunity, developing the energy conservation and emission reduction. Triple meanings have different applicability. China, as a developing country, is experiencing high-speed economic development brought by industrialization, and the fossil energy consumption grows inevitably. We must face new order under global warming, the energy crisis and low-carbon international competition. The first heavy meaning suitable for Chinese and Shaanxi follows low-carbon economy meanings.
Second, industrial low-carbonization is China's strategic emphasis of low-carbon economic development. Industrialization is developing targets at present, and this process is not complete, such as rural surplus labor is still widely exist; manufacturing Oriented by industry is still main body. Based on the deformation of IPAT model, the paper take Shaanxi province as an example, and demonstrates that industrial low-carbonization Oriented by industry is strategic choice of low-carbon economy.
Third, reducing carbon intensity in regional industry need two directions simultaneously efforts: the carbon intensity and industrial structure. Through decomposition analysis of ten kinds pillar industry in Shaanxi from 1998 to 2008, we can find that the carbon intensity and industrial structure alternately play a decisive role, and reducing industry overall carbon intensity will need two directions simultaneously efforts; Through the forecast, we can find that realization of 2020 reduction target is difficult and need further measures.
Fourth, reducing carbon intensity of industry emissions focused on energy-saving. Based on judgment of the total carbon emissions, carbon emissions intensity and the industrial elasticity, we get the conclusion that high emissions industries conclude transportation, energy industry, non-metallic minerals products industry and nonferrous metallurgy industry; Though reduction elasticity, emission elasticity and value creation elasticity, causal chain framework can analyze reasons of industrial low-carbonization. So we get conclusion:Energy-saving has main influence and can reduce carbon emissions in most of the year; but emissions reduction is opposite. Therefore for high emissions industry, energy saving factors is the key to determine the carbon intensity change. Technology development and industrial emission shall be used as the key to the development of low-carbonization.
Fifth, scale development of strategic emerging industry would not affect the improvement of the industrial structure. The key to improve the industrial structure should aim at low-carbon industry and strategic emerging industry. Based on the choice of the carbon intensity and growth potential, the key industries are electronic communication and equipment manufacturing, equipment manufacturing industry and pharmaceutical industry. Through empirical analysis of the industry scale, industrial GDP and industrial carbon intensity, we get the conclusion following:one is the industrial expansion will not lead to high carbon intensity; two is industrial expansion will not lead to low industry GDP. Therefore, we should insist on scale expansion of strategic emerging industry, and realize the industrial structure improvement as soon as possible.
Sixth, Marxist economics has the ability to explain low carbon economy. On the long-term, since we can not classify physical compensation, capital and surplus value into theory system, many people understand the basic principles of Marxism uneasily.
This study will classify resources environment into Marxist economics theory, expanded social capita theory of Marxist, and form cycle among resources environment category, production category and living category. The realization of low-carbon economy is the guarantee to prepaid capital and surplus value, and value and physical compensation in the resources environment category.
Seventh, CO2 emissions market is suggested to be created to achive policy objectives. Mechanism of value compensation and value redistribution of resources and environment category includes lowdown taxes and emission trading, of which the former is not easy to execution; the latter has its own advantages. Through summing up other CO2 emissions markets, China's carbon CO2 emissions market should include the transactions body, quotas mechanism, accounting mechanism, and performance mechanism. Transaction body should be from the scale enterprise of high emissions and strategic emerging industry; trade quotas should take carbon intensity as the foundation, etc. China's CO2 emissions market should include carbon market at present and future market.
引文
7马克思.政治经济学批判.马克思恩格斯全集(第46卷)[M]北京：人民出版社,1972年P393
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