摘要
库兹涅茨认为经济增长就是“向人们提供种类繁多的经济产品的能力的长期上升,而这种不断增长的能力是建立在先进技术以及所需要的制度和思想意识的相应调整的基础之上的。”由此可知经济增长是离不开制度和技术这两个要素的。制度对经济增长的影响是显而易见的。从某种意义上说,制度和技术进步一样,都是可以使生产更有效率,以更少的投入得到更大的产出。制度还具有技术所没有的对经济主体的激励作用。Weitzman,M.指出,内生增长理论打开了“索洛余值”这个黑箱,给出了技术变化的一个内生解释。然而,这个开启了的黑箱又包含了另一个黑箱,这一理论在强调人力资本和技术知识的同时,忽略了制度要素。自从20世纪70年代中期以来,随着新制度经济学派的兴起,他们对于技术革命、经济增长乃至国家的兴衰都有了新的解释。诺斯认为,正是制度矩阵的有效特征,形成了一个对组织的生产活动及其技能与知识的发展给以报偿的经济和政治环境。新制度经济学派以大量的现实研究为依据而提出了“制度至关重要(InstitutionMatters)”的命题——有利于创新的制度安排,才是推动社会进步和技术创新的主要力量,而经济制度的演变被认为是人们为降低生产的交易成本所做的努力。
由于以往的对于制度与经济增长的研究,主要是使用计量的方法寻找合适的工具变量来讨论各种制度对经济增长的作用,对于数理模型化的分析比较少。而新古典经济学家通常把制度看成外生给定的,对于制度的研究也是比较少的。针对这些问题,本文在数理模型方面首先是尝试着从不同的角度如已有制度与经济增长以及基于路径依赖特点的制度变迁与经济增长将制度引入到内生经济增长模型中,其次是分析所建立模型的均衡点的存在性、稳定性和长期平衡增长率以及制度的影响因子对收敛速度和增长路径的影响等问题。对于制度影响经济增长的研究,过去计量模型主要是侧重于制度对经济增长起作用,而对二者的相互作用的机制很少涉及到。其实制度变迁会对经济增长产生作用,经济增长也会影响制度变迁,而且制度变迁的过程可能存在着路径依赖的特点,对于这些问题以往的文献对此的研究无论是数理模型和计量模型方面都是很少涉及到。所以,本文在建立一个基于路径依赖的制度变迁与经济增长的模型基础上使用中国52年到06年的时间序列数据来实证研究。其实,由于制度是多维的,一种制度对经济增长的影响是在其他制度存在前提下进行的。不可否认,制度对经济增长起作用是有着互补性和协调性的,探讨制度的协调性与经济增长是未来制度经济学要大力关注的一个崭新领域。同时,制度对经济增长的作用还有不可忽视的空间上的因素。所以文章的后两章就是对此种问题的回答。
总之,本文的研究思路分为三部分。第一部分,文献综述与评议;第二部分,不同角度引入制度与经济增长的数理模型;第三部分,实证研究。实证研究主要是对前面数理模型要说明的制度与经济增长相互作用以及深入地探讨制度如何对经济增长起作用包括制度变迁的路径依赖与经济增长、制度对经济增长的协调性、制度对经济增长的空间溢出性。具体来说,文章结构安排如下:
第一章、导言。介绍了本文的选题意义、研究目的、研究方法与文章的创新与不足。
第二章、文献综述。本章主要是从产权制度、政治制度和经济制度等方面梳理了制度对经济增长的文献并对此做出了自己的评论。
第三章、引入制度因素的内生经济增长模型。本章包括两个模型,第一个模型主要是依据马克思的制度变迁理论在本质上是一个经济发展决定制度变迁的宏观整体制度变迁理论来将制度内生化到经济增长模型,探讨了从消费者效应最大化角度出发所建立模型的均衡点的存在性、稳定性和均衡点存在且稳定性存在的情况下制度影响因子对收敛速度的影响。模型的结论主要是,良好的制度质量可以使得经济中存在稳定的均衡点;可以提高人均平衡增长率和总体经济长期平衡增长率;能够缩短一个穷国追赶富国的时间,即收敛速度加快,从而可以解释后发优势现象。反之,不好的制度使得经济中不存在稳定的均衡点;使得人均平衡产出增长率和长期平衡经济增长率出现负增长,从而可以解释一个富裕的国家亦可以变穷现象,即制度的逆转。在内生经济增长模型中技术内生化的主要两种方式是“干中学”和技术研发,由于模型一采用的是“干中学”的方式,所以模型二是就是采用技术研发的方式,考虑在这种情况下,引入制度因素到内生经济增长模型。模型二主要是考察了制度影响因子对平衡增长路径的影响。
第四章、基于路径依赖的制度变迁与经济增长模型。本章也是包含两个模型即模型三和模型四。模型三是从制度变迁主要是受到物质资本、人力资本、技术和制度本身的角度,沿着Uzawa(1965)、Romer(1990)和Grossman和Helpman(1991)等人所使用两部门的思想,尝试建立引入制度因素的内生经济增长模型。讨论了所建立模型的均衡点的存在性、稳定性以及对长期平衡增长率进行比较静态分析。模型的结论主要是:一、人力、物质资本配置的失衡将会导致技术成果缺少与其相配合的制度环境,使得经济偏离平衡增长的轨道。二、原有制度对制度变迁的影响不同对长期平衡增长率造成很大的差别。由于前三个模型都是在生产函数为特殊的科布——道格拉斯函数,这是一个很强的假设条件,并且没有做实证分析。尤其是对于中国这样一个农业大国来说,其包含制度因素的生产函数不一定是规模报酬不变的。而且中国的制度变迁从计划经济到社会主义特色的市场经济过程中,其制度变迁有着很强相关性,即路径依赖的特点。故此,模型四试着在一个较为一般化的科布——道格拉斯生产函数的基础上建立一个基于路径依赖特点的制度变迁内生经济增长模型。模型四的结论是主要是探讨基于路径依赖特点的制度变迁与经济增长的相互作用。
第五章、基于路径依赖的制度变迁与经济增长实证研究。在模型四的基础上建立计量模型来说明基于路径依赖的制度变迁与经济增长之间的关系。模型的结论为从计划经济体制变迁到社会主义市场经济体制,生产的各个主要要素如劳动力、物力资本以及技术对大大地推动了经济的增长。在控制其他主要要素如人力资本、物质资本和技术等,在市场经济制度下制度对经济增长的促进作用大大增强,而且制度通过路径依赖影响制度的变迁,从而更进一步促进经济的增长;同时,经济的增长反过来又促进制度的变迁,这使得制度对经济增长的推动作用又变得增大。这种良性的循环,使得中国的经济增长奇迹是可能的也是不可避免的。
第六章、制度的协调性与经济增长。由于以上主要是使用数理的方法探讨了对不同方式引入制度因素的内生经济增长模型中的均衡点存在性、稳定性和长期平衡增长率以及路径依赖特点下制度变迁与经济增长相互影响等问题。但是制度是多维的。多维制度又是如何对经济增长起作用?这是制度与经济增长中一个很大的难点。本章主要是结合中国在1994年开始财政分税制改革既定的前提下,产权制度如何改革使与之相适应,才能更好对经济增长发挥作用的国情,运用面板门限计量方法进行了详细地讨论。
第七章、制度空间溢出性与经济增长:基于空间面板固定效应的计量研究。对于中国有三十几个省市的国家,其贫富差距是很大的,其市场化改革进程也是不一致的。中国这种市场化进程,尤其是产权制度的改革对经济增长的促进作用如何在空间溢出,这是一个很有意思的问题。本章就是运用空间面板固定效应计量的方法对此进行了分析。
Kuznets believes that economic growth is " the long term rise of the capacity of providing people with a wide range of economic products, and this ever-increasing ability is built on the advanced technology and the necessary institutional and ideological adjustments." From this, economic growth are inseparable from the institution and technology of these two elements. Institutional impact on economic growth are obvious, In a sense, the institutional and technological progress, are able to make production more efficient, with fewer inputs greater outputs. Institution also has incentives which technology has not. Weitzman, M. pointed out that the endogenous growth theory opened the "Solow residual value" of the black box, give an endogenous explanation to technical change. However, this open-up of the black box also contains a black box, this theory in the emphasis of human capital and technical knowledge to the neglect of the institutional elements. Since the mid-70s of the 20th century, with the emergence of new institutional economics school of thought, they have the technological revolution, economic growth and even the rise and fall of the country have a new explanation. North believes that the system matrix is an effective feature of the organization formed a production activity and the development of skills and knowledge to give reward for the economic and political environment. New institutional economics studies are based on reality and put forward the "Institution Matters" proposition - the institutional arrangements conducive to innovation is to promote social progress and the main force of technological innovation, and economic systems. The evolution was considered the efforts which people had made in order to reduce the the transaction costs.
For that previous research and economic growth, mainly used measurement methods to look for a suitable instrument to discuss a variety of institutional variables on economic growth. There is less mathematical model. The neo-classical economists usually take institution as exogenous , for the study of institution is relatively small. To solve these problems, this paper tries to build a mathematical model from different angles such as institutions and economic growth based on the characteristics of path-dependent institutional change to introduc the institution into endogenous economic growth model. then,analyze the existence of equilibrium, stability and long-term balanced growth, as well as the impact of institutional factors on the convergence speed and the impact of growth path and so on. Impact on economic growth for the study of institution, econometric model of the past was mainly focused on the role of the institution on economic growth, while the interaction mechanism between the two rarely involved. In fact, institutional change on economic growth, economic growth will also affectinstitutional changes, but the process of institutional change possiblely exists of path-dependent characteristics. For these questions the past literature on this research, whether of mathematical models and econometric models are are rarely involved. Therefore, this paper set up a mechanism based on path-dependent change and economic growth model and based on the time-series data of China 1952 to 2006 to empirical research. In fact, because the institution is multidimensional, a system impact on economic growth in other systems are carried out under the premise of existence. It is undeniable that the system works on economic growth are complementary and have a co-ordinated to explore the coordination of system and economic growth in the future of institutional economics are strongly want a brand new area of concern. At the same time, the system of economic growth have not to be ignored on the space factor. So after the two chapters of the article is to answer such questions.
In short, the idea of this study is divided into three parts. The first part is literature review and appraisal; the second part is the introduction of a institution with different angles of economic growth mathematical model; third part is empirical research. An Empirical Study on the front of the main mathematical model to explain the institution and the interaction between economic growth and an in-depth exploration of how the institution works on economic growth, including path dependence and economic growth, the co-ordination on economic growth, the spillover of economic growth Spaces. Specifically, the article structure is as follows:
Chapter I, Introduction. Introduce the topic of this paper, the significance of research purposes, research methods and article creation and shortcoming.
Chapter II, Literature Review. This chapter is a survey of the literatures of the property rights institution, political institutions and economic institution made its own comments.
Chapter III, the introduction of institutional factors of endogenous growth model. This chapter includes two models, the first model is based on Marx's theory of institutional change at the essence of economic development on a macro-institution changes deciding the overall theory of institutional change to bring the institution to economic growth, and second is biochemical model of effects from a consumer to maximize the angle of the model setting up by the existence of equilibrium, stability and existence of equilibrium and stability of the system exist circumstances affecting factors on the impact of the convergence rate. the main conclusions is that a good institution can make the economy stable equilibrium points exist; can improve the balance of per capita growth rates and long-term balance in the overall economic growth; a poor country can reduce the time to chase the rich countries, namely, to speed up the convergence rate, thus it can explain the advantage of situation. Instead, the institution making a bad economy does not exist a stable equilibrium point; makes the balance of per capita output growth rate and long-term balance between economic growth rate of negative growth, which could explain an affluent country can become poor situation, namely the reversal of theisntituion. Including endogenous growth model of technology within the biological and chemical are the main two ways," learning by doing" and technical research and development, because of model 1 used the " learning by doing" approach, so the model is based on two technology research and development are the way to consider. Under such circumstances, the introduction of institutional factors to the endogenous growth model. Two main model systems are investigated the impact of factors on the impact of balanced growth path.
Chapter IV, economic growth model based on the path dependence of institutional change. This chapter also includes two models that model three and model four. models Three are the main changes of the instituons are subject to physical capital, human capital, technology and system perspective. Uzawa (1965), Romer (1990) and Grossman and Helpman (1991) and others using the two departments of thought, try to set up to introduce the system of factors endogenous economic growth model. Discussed the model set up by the existence of equilibrium, stability and balance for long-term growth rate for comparative static analysis. Model of the main conclusions are: 1, human, material and capital allocation would lead to an imbalance in the lack of technological achievements in line with its institutional environment, making the economy deviate from the balanced growth path. Two, the original system on the system changes the impact of different growth rate of long-term balance of a great difference. Because the first three models are in the production function for the Cobb - Douglas function, this is a very strong assumptions, and there is no empirical analysis to do. Especially for a large agricultural country like China, its production function returns to scale are not necessarily the same. China's Institutional Change transformed from a planned economy to socialist market economy characteristics of the process, the system changes have a strong correlation, that is path-dependent characteristics. Therefore, this paper tries to model at a four generalized production function of the basic set up on a path dependence based on the characteristics of institutional change endogenous growth model. model four is the main conclusions of the study is to investigate the characteristics of path dependence based on institutional change and economic growth interactions.
Chapter V, economic growth empirical research based on the path dependence of institutional change. In the model set up four basic econometric model to illustrate path dependence based on the institutional change and economic growth relationship. Model concluded that changing from a planned economic system to a socialist market economic system, each of the major elements of production such as labor, material, capital and technology to greatly promotes the economic growth. In the control of other major elements such as human capital, physical capital and technology in the market economic system under the system's role in promoting economic growth greatly enhanced, and the system through the path-dependent effects of system changes, thus further promoting economic growth; At the same time, economic growth in turn promote institution change, which makes institution's role in promoting economic growth become larger. Such a virtuous cycle, making China's economic growth miracle is inevitable.
Chapter VI, the coordination of institution and economic growth. The above is to use mathematical methods to explore different ways of introducing the system of factors of endogenous growth models exist in equilibrium, stability and long-term balanced growth, as well as path-dependent characteristics of institutional change and economic growth issues such as mutual influence . But the isntituon is multidimensional. Multi-dimensional institution is how to work on economic growth? This is a great difficulty faced with isntiuion and economic growth. This chapter is mainly using China at the beginning of fiscal 1994 reform of the tax system established under the premise of how to reform the property rights isntituon to enable them to adapt in order to better play its role on economic growth conditions, the use of panel threshold measurement method is discussed in detail.
Chapter VII, the Spaces spillof isntituon and economic growth: econometric study of spatial panel fixed-effect. For some Chinese provinces and municipalities have thirty countries, the gap between rich and poor is huge, its market-oriented reform process is inconsistent. This Chinese market-oriented process, in particular property rights institution reform on economic growth to promote the role of the spillover in space, this is a very interesting question. This chapter uses space panel fixed-effect method of measuring to analyze this.
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