摘要
中国外汇储备经历了自建国以来至改革开放之初的存量短缺、二十世纪八十年代和九十年代的不断增长,以及二十一世纪第一个十年的飞速膨胀,实现了外汇储备的巨大累积规模。截止到2011年上半年,我国外汇储备已经逼近3.2万亿美元,在中国6万多亿美元的国内生产总值中占比超过50%,在过去的五年中一直是世界第一储备大国。一方面,中国的巨额外汇储备成为中国防范和化解国际金融风险、实现国际收支均衡、增强人民币汇率弹性,以及提升中国国际地位的重要财富保障;另一方面,自二十一世纪以来,中国外汇储备以年均30.85%的速度不断增长,加剧了外汇储备规模管理和投资运营的风险,对中国外汇储备的投资组合安排和保值增殖提出了更大的挑战。中国外汇储备问题不仅成为中国货币当局和经济学者们齐相争议的热点,而且也成为国际社会特别是美国等债务危机国极为关注的领域。
本文正是在此背景下,以马克思和凯恩斯的货币资本化理论为指导,考察了中国外汇储备资本化主要模式的风险与收益特征,试图提出优化外汇储备保值增殖模式的政策建议。
论文第一章阐述了中国外汇储备的累积历程与累积渠道。中国外汇储备由存量短缺到不断增长再到超规模膨胀的累积历程,从一个侧面反映了中国国民经济不断发展壮大、中国对外贸易不断开放增长、国际资本流动不断青睐中国的成长路径。如何处置这巨大规模的外汇储备财富,对中国而言一直是一个“甜蜜的烦恼”,它不仅引发了中国学者关于外汇储备过剩问题的争论,促进了中国货币当局由消极储备管理逐步向积极储备管理的转变,而且也带来了以美国为首的发达国家对中国的不满和忌惮。本文认为中国外汇储备多并不是主要问题,因为货币的资本运动本来就是无限的,对中国而言,最关键的问题就是如何通过外汇储备资本化的投资模式,让外汇储备的保值增殖无限地进行下去。
论文第二章论述了马克思和凯恩斯关于货币资本化的经典理论,并梳理了当代外汇储备资本化的有关理论。马克思的货币资本化理论基于货币使用价值的视角告诉我们,外汇储备作为一国官方货币当局所管理的特殊货币,也同样具有货币的资本属性,通过外汇储备的投资运用而使外汇储备增殖的过程就是外汇储备的资本化。凯恩斯的货币资本化理论则基于贸易顺差的视角告诉我们,一国官方货币当局只有拥有贸易顺差或国际收支顺差,才能累积外汇储备;累积的外汇储备只有作为对外投资的资本,才能形成更多的利润,才能使国家实力进一步增强。两位经济大师的理论跨越时空不谋而合,为我们今天研究中国外汇储备的保值增殖问题开了理论先河。
中国外汇储备资本化的多元化投资,体现了马克思和凯恩斯货币资本化理论在中国外汇储备运营中的发展应用。我国目前的外汇储备运营依据马科维茨的投资组合理论已经建立了多元化的投资组合,下一步需要做的就是如何优化外汇储备资本化的多元投资组合。所以,接下来的三章内容都是探讨外汇储备的投资模式。
论文第三章研究了中国外汇储备投资美国证券的模式。通过分析指出,美国国债和以“两房”债券为代表的美国机构债券在中期内仍然分别是中国外汇储备资本化的首要渠道和辅助渠道。对储备投资国中国来说,上述渠道带来了外汇储备证券投资的收益;对储备融资国美国而言,上述渠道最终以美元回流美国的方式,充分体现了中国对美国经济发展所做出的巨大贡献。作为美国最大的债权国和第一进口大国,中国不仅直接为美国融通了大量外汇资金,而且间接为其提供了大量商品和资源,使得美国经济能够透支消费、举债发展,使得美国的生产和就业能够保持稳定,使得美国居民能够享受着比我们优越数倍的生活质量。
论文第四章研究了中国外汇储备投资主权财富基金的模式。主权财富基金的投资模式应该作为投资美国证券以外中国外汇储备资本化的重要新型模式,中国政府需要提高对其进行外汇储备注资的比例,使之成为外汇储备投资高风险、高收益资产的主要投资平台。
论文第五章研究了中国外汇储备的其他投资模式,包括投资黄金和金融衍生产品、参与区域货币合作及发挥内外支持效应。
首先,中国要重视黄金特有的保障优势,将“外汇储备转化为黄金储备”作为中国外汇储备资本化的主要补充渠道。要改变中国目前存在的黄金“规模有余、比例不足”的问题,提高外汇储备投资黄金的比例,并通过开创黄金外汇联系产品、采取激励国内居民持汇及“以汇炒金”等政策措施,实现“藏汇于国”与“藏汇于民”的外汇储备双轨制运营。
其次,外汇储备投资金融衍生产品可以作为中国外汇储备资本化的一般补充渠道。中国政府应该在建立我国人民币外汇衍生产品国内市场的基础上,遵循资本和金融账户有序渐进开放的步骤,逐步放松投资金融衍生产品的严格限制,设定外汇储备投资金融衍生产品的投资基准,充分发挥金融衍生产品投资对外汇储备分散风险、获取收益的作用。
最后,中国也要通过外汇储备积极参与区域货币合作,推动人民币由区域化向国际化发展,使中国在“亚洲区域外汇储备库”的运行中成为举足轻重的领导国;要将外汇储备配置到国内重点对外贸易和对外投资领域,直接支持国内实体经济实现较高的国际交易回报,间接提高外汇储备投资的资本化收益;还要发挥外汇储备的国际融资作用。中国认购欧洲主权债务危机国的国债,认购国际货币基金组织为救助全球金融危机而发行的国际金融机构债券,无不彰显了中国在外汇储备资本化过程中是一个负责任的长期投资者,在促进区域经济和国际经济发展过程中是一个不断崛起的经济大国,在救助欧美主权债务危机和全球金融危机过程中是一个值得信赖的仁义之邦。
论文第六章论述了中国外汇储备资本化的风险。外汇储备资本化是一把“双刃剑”,它既可以通过各种投资模式赢得收益,又面临着各种投资模式的资本化风险。外汇储备的规模累积会导致持有储备的财务成本和货币政策目标实现的风险;外汇储备的投资运营会面临诸如汇率风险、利率风险、流动性风险及信用风险等外汇储备风险;全球经济发展的不稳定又进一步加剧了上述风险。全球金融危机的爆发、欧洲主权债务危机的恶化、美国主权债务上限的提高以及许多发达国家主权信用评级的下调,使得我国投资美国债券和欧洲债券的外汇储备风险进一步深化。因此,中国应该建立一个多层次、多元化的外汇储备风险管理框架,有效降低或分散外汇储备资本化的风险,实现风险约束下的外汇储备保值增殖,促进中国、美国乃至全球经济的和谐发展。
The evolution of huge foreign reserves accumulation in China has undergone the stage of stock shortage during the period from its foundation to the early time of its reform and opening up to the outside world, that of increasing growth in 1980s and 1990s, as well as that of expansion at full speed in the last decade in 2000s. By the first half of 2011, Chinese foreign reserves has been close to 3200 billion U.S. dollars, which accounts for more than 50 percent of Chinese gross domestic product valued at over 6000 billion U.S. dollars. China has been the largest holder of foreign reserves in the world during the last 5 years. On the one hand, the huge amount of foreign reserves provides China with important wealth guarantee for guarding against and dissolving international financial risks, realizing payments balance, enhancing the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, and upgrading China’s international standing. On the other hand, it has been continuously increasing at 30.85% per annum on average since 2000s, which exacerbates the risks arising from the management of its size and investment, and brings about greater challenges on its investment portfolio arrangement as well as value-ensured and value-added objectives. The issue of Chinese foreign reserves has been an open debate of Chinese monetary authorities and economic academics, but also a focus concerned by the international community, especially the debt crisis countries, such as the United States.
In this context, the thesis explores the risk-return characteristics of the main modes of capitalization of Chinese foreign reserves on the guidance of the theories of money capitalization proposed by Marx and Keynes, and attempts to offer the policy suggestions for optimizing the value-ensured and value-added modes of Chinese foreign reserves.
The first chapter illustrates the evolution and channels of Chinese foreign reserve accumulation. From one aspect, the evolution of Chinese foreign reserves accumulation from stock shortage to increasing growth and then to excessive expansion is a mirror of the increasing development path of Chinese national economic growth, foreign trade opening up to the outside world and international capital inflows into China. How to deal with such huge foreign reserve wealth is a“sweet trouble”to China. It not only brings in the arguments on the excessiveness of foreign reserves by Chinese academics and facilitates the gradual transformation from passive reserve management to active reserve management carried out by Chinese monetary authorities, but also results in resentments and dreads of the developed countries led by United States to China. The thesis posits that the excessiveness of Chinese foreign reserves is not the main concern because the capitalization of money inherently lasts infinitely. For China, the key issue is how to infinitely maintain and increase the value of foreign reserves by relying on the modes of investment of foreign reserve capitalization.
The second chapter discusses the classical theories of money capitalization proposed by Marx and Keynes, and sums up the contemporary theories of capitalization of foreign reserves. The theory of money capitalization proposed by Marx is based on the view of the use value of money. According to it, foreign reserves of one country, being the distinctive money managed by monetary authorities, also has the capital attribute of money. The capitalization of foreign reserves is a process of enhancing the value of foreign reserves through their investments and usages. The theory of money capitalization proposed by Keynes is based on the view of trade surplus. According to it, only when there is a trade surplus or payments surplus, could the monetary authorities of one country accumulate foreign reserves. And only when the accumulated foreign reserves are used as capitals for making foreign investments, could the country generate more profits and further heighten its strength. The two economic masters happen to hold the same view leaping over the time and space. Their theories of money capitalization are theoretical forerunners of current studying of value-ensured and value-added issues of Chinese foreign reserves.
The diversified investment of Chinese foreign reserves reflects the developed application of the theories of money capitalization proposed by Marx and Keynes in the operation of Chinese foreign reserves. At present, our country has established a diversified investment portfolio of foreign reserves according to Markowitz’s investment portfolio theory, and the next step is how to optimize the portfolio. Therefore, the subsequent three chapters study the modes of foreign reserve investment.
The third chapter studies the mode of Chinese foreign reserve investment in U.S securities. Through analysis, it points out that, in the medium run, the foremost channel and the supplementary channel of the capitalization of Chinese foreign reserves are still the investments in U.S. treasury bonds and agency bonds represented by those issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively. As far as the investing country of foreign reserves China is concerned, the said channels bring about securities investment returns on foreign reserves. And as far as the financing country the United States is concerned, the said channels fully reflects China’s huge contributions to American economic development via dollar consequently flowing back to it. As the largest creditor and importer to U.S., China provides it with not only a larger amount of foreign funds directly, but also a great quantities of commodities and resources, which makes American economy be able to consume on credit via overdraft and to develop by raising debt, American production and employment be stable, and American people enjoy good living standards many times as much as our people.
The fourth chapter studies the mode of Chinese foreign reserve investment in sovereign wealth funds. In addition to the investment in U.S securities, the mode of investment via sovereign wealth funds should be the important new mode of capitalization of Chinese foreign reserves. The Chinese government should increase the foreign reserve injection proportion to them, and make them the main investment platform to invest foreign reserves in assets with more risks and high returns.
The fifth chapter studies other modes of Chinese foreign reserve investment, such as the investments in gold and financial derivatives, the participation in regional cooperation, and the functions performed in both internal and external markets.
Firstly, China should place emphasis on the protective advantages of gold, and treat the transformation of foreign reserves into gold reserves as an essential complementary channel of capitalization of Chinese foreign reserves. It should increase the foreign reserve investment proportion in gold to change the existing problem of“excess size but deficient proportion”in gold, and carry out a dual foreign reserve operation system characterized by official and non-official holdings of foreign reserves through innovating gold-foreign-reserve-linked products and taking policy measures to stimulate domestic residents to hold foreign reserves and trade gold with foreign reserves.
Next, China should treat the foreign reserve investment in financial derivatives as an ordinary complementary channel of capitalization of Chinese foreign reserves. It should gradually deregulate the investment in financial derivatives and set investment benchmarks on the basis of the establishment of the domestic RMB-foreign exchange derivative market and the steps of gradual convertibility of our capital and financial account in order, so that the investment in financial derivatives can give play to the diversification and profitability of foreign reserves.
Finally, China should use foreign reserves to actively participate in regional monetary cooperation, push forward the development of RMB from regionalization to internationalization, and to make itself a decisive leader in the operation of“Asian Regional Foreign Reserve Pool”. It should allocate foreign reserves into the key domestic foreign trade and investment areas to directly support domestic physical economies to realize higher international transaction returns and to indirectly enhance the capitalization returns of foreign reserve investment. It should also bring international financing of foreign reserves into play. China’s subscription for the treasury bonds issued by European sovereign debt crisis countries and the international financial bonds issued by International Monetary Fund to remedy the global financial crisis, all without exception, exhibits that China is a long-term responsible investor during the capitalization of its foreign reserves, an increasingly rising economic powerhouse during the process of facilitating regional and international economic development, and a reliable country with benevolence and kindheartedness during the process of remedying European and American sovereign debt crises and global financial crisis as well.
The sixth and last chapter discusses on the risks of capitalization of Chinese foreign reserves. The capitalization of foreign reserves is a“double-edged sword”, because it gains returns via various modes of investment but simultaneously faces various kinds of capitalization risk . On one hand, the accumulation of foreign reserves may result in financial costs of holding them and the risk of realizing the objectives of monetary policy, and on the other hand, the investment and operation of foreign reserves may encounter foreign reserve risks such as exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, liquidity risks and credit risks. The instability of global economic development further exacerbates the said risks. And the eruption of global financial crisis, the deterioration of European sovereign debt crisis, the raise in American sovereign debt ceiling, and the downgrading of sovereign credit ratings of many developed countries all intensify the foreign reserve risks arising from our investments in U.S. bonds and European bonds. Therefore, China should establish a multi-tier and diversified foreign reserve risk management framework to mitigate or diversify away the excessive foreign reserve risks, and facilitate the harmonized development in China, United States and even global economy via value-assurance-and-enhancement of foreign reserves under risk constrains.
引文
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