摘要
改革开放以来,伴随着经济的快速发展,中国的M2/GDP一直呈现上升趋势,2007年这一比例已达1.62,远远超过世界其它国家。这一“超额”货币供应与低物价水平并存的现象,大量“迷失货币(Missing money)”的存在及其对传统货币数量论对货币、产出、物价三者之间关系表述的违背被国际经济学界称之为“中国之谜”(Mckinnon,1993)①。在进行价格、财税及金融体制改革的改革初期,对“中国之谜”的解释主要集中在市场化和货币化两方面,对M2/GDP数值的上升,经济学家们主要持中性或肯定的态度。货币化显然难以解释90年代后期货币化进程放缓后,M2/GDP比率的持续上升。之后,经济学家们试图从虚拟经济与实体经济之间的关系、中国金融体系的特点等方面对M2/GDP比率进行解释,其背后则开始隐含着对金融风险及经济体制问题的担忧。可以说“中国之迷”是中国经济市场化改革和金融体制改革过程中各种矛盾在货币领域的综合表现,同时也是中国经济增长与宏观运行内在机制变化在货币方面的集中反映。考察和研究中国经济转轨过程中长期存在的“超额货币”现象,对其进行科学、深入的解释将是中国经济理论界面临的长期问题,对于理解中国经济金融运行的深层次特点,判断未来经济、金融改革发展方向有着非常重要的理论和现实意义。
首先,本文对与“超额货币之迷”有关的阐述产出、货币、物价之间关系的货币理论进行了梳理,特别是对内生货币理论进行了深入的介绍。内生货币理论将是我们理解“超额货币之迷“的理论基石。在文献综述部分,我们对迄今为止对“超额货币之迷”的有关研究和解释进行了系统的梳理,并对有关理论假设进行了评价。
其次,我们对M2/GDP的长期趋势进行描述与论证,并对M2/GDP比率进行了国别比较。就趋势而言,1978-2007年我国广义货币与产出比例随时间呈显著地上升趋势。通过运用结构突变理论对该比例进行计量检验,结果表明其数据生成过程没有出现结构突变。国别比较结果肯定了中国M2/GDP比率畸高事实,同时为研究其原因提供了线索。
第三,根据内生货币理论,本文认为中央银行对货币供应缺乏足够控制,货币供应的变动原因来自于银行体系本身的信用创造行为并受居民财富偏好特征影响。相应地,本文认为应该从银行体系信用创造,货币发行权分散和居民财富偏好等角度对“中国超额货币之迷”进行解释。对此,提出了三个理论假说。其一是国家隐性补贴假说。该假说认为国家对银行的隐性补贴影响银行的信用创造是造成“超额货币”现象的重要原因。在这一过程中,银行体系竞争程度的提高增强了整个银行体系创造“超额货币”活动的强度。这一假说通过一个银行体系垄断竞争模型得到了证明。其二是地方政府竞争假说。该假说认为中国的货币发行权分散于追求产出最大化的各个地方政府之间。地方政府通过其对银行的影响控制信用创造活动和对地方产出征税为其追求产出最大化的行动融资。对于这一假说的模型化表明,货币发行与地方政府的征税成本有关,越是征税成本高的地方政府越趋向于通过所控制的银行发行货币融资。整个货币发行权的分散和地方政府的竞争是形成“超额货币”现象的重要原因。第三是居民财富偏好假说。该假说认为居民部门对财富的高度偏好,扩大了央行通过投放货币促进经济增长的货币政策有效性空间,在短期内为货币过量投放提供了可能。这一假说通过一个包含居民、央行和企业的一般均衡模型得到了证明。
第四,按照本文提出的新的超额货币假说,超额货币的存在及产生原因对金融稳定、货币政策效应等有着重大的启示。首先,无论是国家隐性补贴,还是地方政府的货币自由发行权均意味着银行体系金融风险的沉积。这一判断可以通过区域金融资产质量与地方政府征税成本之间关系的实证检验得到映证。在控制了人均产出水平、国家区域政策等变量之后,我们发现征税成本越高的地方政府该地区金融资产质量越低下,间接地证明了地方政府对货币创造过程的干预及超量货币对金融稳定的影响。其次,“超额货币”问题揭示的货币与产出、物价之间特殊关系将影响到货币政策中介目标的选择以及货币政策的有效性。我们认为超额货币现象的存在及进一步发展将进一步弱化货币政策目标的可控性、可测性及与实体经济目标的相关性。通过与按照货币服务指数法构建的流量货币指标的可控性及相关性比较,证实了这一判断。
最后,本文通过三个解释假说的理论推导和相关的实证研究得出了以下主要结论和建议:(1)国家对银行体系的隐性补贴或担保虽不构成银行的储备增长,但是却会鼓励银行的货币创造行为,产生超额货币现象。(2)地方政府对货币创造过程的干预使货币发行权分散是导致超额货币现象的另一个原因。(3)从这两个方面的原因看,解决金融和财政两方面的可持续性发展问题存在一个充分条件,那就是构建一个稳健的以市场原则运行的银行体系。这一方面需要加快国有股份制商业银行的市场化改造;另一方面需要改革地方政府评价竞争机制(其中使地方政府财权事权相适应是重要的组成部分)。(4)理论分析还显示货币化水平存在一个临界值,当货币化水平小于临界值时,货币供应通过促进投资进而推动消费和经济增长,此时积极的货币政策是有效的。这一临界值的大小受到了财富偏好的重要影响,当财富偏好越强时,使积极货币政策有效的货币化水平临界值范围越大。显然,对于储蓄率高的国家,货币当局通过加大货币供给促进经济增长的政策有效性空间更大,这当然会推高货币化水平(M/GDP比率)。(5)由于超额货币现象的存在使以央行以广义货币M2作为货币政策中介目标的货币政策体系受到置疑。本文提出可以尝试以货币服务指数一类流量货币量指标代替存量货币量指标作为货币政策的核心中介目标。
Since 1978, along with the fast economic growth, the Chinese M2/GDP ratio is keeping rising. In 2007,the ratio has peaked at 1.62,which was the highest one in the whole world. This“excessive”money supply coexists with lower price level, which is compounded with the classic Quantity Theory of Money, was characterized by the economist as“Chinese Puzzle”(Mckinnon, 1993). In the very beginning stage of economic reform, Marketrizing and Monetarizing were the main explanations of the phenomenon of“Chinese Puzzle”, the economists mainly hold positive views towards the high value of M2/GDP ratio. The old Monetarizing theory was obvious not enough to explain the steadly growth of M2/GDP ration after the slow down of Moneytarizing progress in 1990s. The economists began correlated the high M2/GDP ration with the fast growthing capital market and some institutional factors of Chinese financial market, and began to worry about the risks behind the phenomenon. According to the exist researches, we can say the“Chinese puzzle”represents the most important institutional factor of economic growth and financial development. Keeping our eye sight on the“excessive”money problem, trying to give it reasonable explanation will be a long run project for Chinese economists, and bearing great meaning for understanding and judging the future economic and financial reform.
Firstly, this thesis gives detail and systematic reviews of related monetary economics theory, and especially focus on Quantity theory of money and the Post Keynesian endogenous money. The latter one is the foundation for us understands the“puzzle”of Chinese“excessive”money. Besides it, we also review the existing researches and explanation about this problem and give our recommendations.
Secondly, we examined the long term trend of M2/GDP rate and make a cross-country compare. We found that the M2/GDP ratio had a steady growth trend in the last 30 years. And through econometric test, we found the DGP(data generate progress) of M2/GDP ratio had no structure break down. The cross-country study confirmed the fact that china has the unique high M2/GDP ratio, and gave us some clues to further research.
Third, according to the endogenous money theory, the central bank can’t control the money supply, the fluctuation of M2 mainly influenced by the banking system’s credit creating behaves which determined by the money demand. Based on the Chinese institutional characters, this thesis gives three theory assumptions. The first one is the government subsides assumption. According to the assumption, the government subsides and guarantees the banking system, which influences the credit creation behaves of bank, and eventually bring forth to the“excessive”money phenomenon. The structure of banking system also has some influence on the progress and result of“excessive”money creation. We modeled the assumption with a simple monopoly competition model. The second is a decentralized monetary issue right assumption. According to the assumption, the monetary issue right is decentralized to several local governments, through money issuing and taxation, local governments financing for investment to maximize local output. Modeled the assumption we found that the higher taxation cost the more money issue. The decentralized monetary issue right and competition of local government is the main reason why we have“excessive”money. The third assumption is the fortune preference theory. According to the theory, the higher the saving rate the larger the space for the central bank adopt active monetary policy to promote economic growth, and finally bring forth to the higher monetarizing level. Use a general equilibrium model we prove this theory hypothesis.
Finally, through three hypothesis and the related practical examination, this thesis reaches to the following conclusions.(1)the government subsides and guarantees, which is given to the banking system may not enlarge the reserve base of banking system, but will promote the credit creation and bring to the“excess money”problem. (2)The local government’s interfering into banking and the decentralized monetary issue right is the second reason why we have the“excessive money”.(3)According to the two hypothesis, there is a sufficient condition for sustainable government finance and banking industry, that is constructing a totally market oriented banking system. First, we should push forward the banking reform; second we should reform the local government value system(or the local government officer value system). (4) The theoretical analysis also shows that there is a threshold level of monetarization, when the monetarization levels is less than the critical value, the money supply through the promotion of investment and thus promote the consumption and economic growth, an active monetary policy at this time to be effective. The wealth preference has great influence on the critical value, the higher of the wealth preference the higher the critical value is. It is clear that for countries with a high savings rate, the monetary authorities increase the money supply to promote economic growth in the effective policy space, which will certainly push up the level of monetarization (M / GDP ratio). (5) As a result of the existence of“excess” money, the central bank’s choosing of the broad money M2 as intermediate target of monetary policy would be subject to doubt. In this thesis, we suggest to use monetary services index as the intermediate target of monetary policy instead of M2.
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