摘要
自2008年国际金融危机爆发以来,人民币国际化问题备受国内外关注。中国当局把握有利时机,将人民币国际化提高到战略高度进行考虑,并采取了一系列积极措施来促进人民币国际化。然而,人民币国际化并不只是简单的开放政策,而是涉及经济金融改革大局的战略抉择,牵一发而动全身,如果某些环节处理不当,甚至产生矛盾,很可能引发风险的逐步积累和最终爆发。例如经济金融政策独立性丧失的风险,大规模资本流动逆转对经济金融稳定造成冲击的风险等。因此必须有效识别人民币国际化进程中的各类风险,研究其形成的原因和传导机制,并在此基础之上进行积极防范、控制和化解。
全文共分五个组成部分：第一部分(第一章)是导论；第二部分(第二章)是一般理论与实践；第三部分是理论建模和实证研究,包括第三章、第四章、第五章、第六章和第七章；第四部分(第八章)是政策建议；第五部分是结论。
第一章：导论。该部分主要说明论文的选题背景和意义；相关文献综述及简要评论；研究思路、方法和内容；创新之处。
第二章：货币国际化风险的基础理论与控制实践。这部分的主要内容有三个方面;一是对货币国际化的风险进行分类并说明分类依据。二是对影响货币国际化风险大小的因素进行分析。由前两部分构成了货币国际化风险的简单理论。三是世界上三大国际货币美元、欧元和日元国际化的风险控制实践。至此,第二章从理论和实践两方面构建了货币国际化风险的分析框架。
第三章：人民币国际化进程中的市场阻挠及威慑风险分析。人民币国际化离不开特定的国际货币体系环境,而当今的国际货币体系是以美元为主导的单级货币体系,更准确的说是以美元为主、欧元为辅的非对称的两级货币体系。人民币不可避免地要与这两大垄断势力展开竞争。由于涉及利益的重新分配,欧美特别是美国为继续维护美元的霸主地位势必排挤人民币国际化。本章根据经济学中的寡头理论,通过建立非对称的斯塔克伯格模型对美元与人民币的竞争进行分析。分析结果表明,由于美元霸权和垄断能力的差异,人民币将遭受到美元的排挤,并在短期内难以超越美元的地位,中长期则存在合作的可能。本文认为,货币垄断能力的大小取决于经济规模,而通过比较美元、欧元和日元在国际化时的经济规模,发现日本的经济规模相对较小,因此认为经济规模在推进货币国际化方面具有门限效应。实证结果显示确实存在这一门限效应,从而揭示了美元霸权、欧元成功和日元失败的根本原因。
第四章：人民币国际化对货币政策独立性的影响。主要从货币替代和货币反替代角度论证了人民币国际化进程中的资产选择行为对货币存量进而对货币政策独立性造成的影响。首先从多角度全面分析了近年来中国的货币替代与货币反替代现象,其次分析了资产选择行为对货币政策独立性造成影响的机制,最后在多恩布什的粘性价格模型的基础上,加入修正的购买力平价和利率平价理论进而建立了各类资产选择行为与货币存量之间关系的理论模型。经过实证分析,本章认为影响货币政策独立性的主渠道是汇率,它通过人民币升值预期发挥作用。
第五章：人民币国际化对财政政策独立性的影响。本章首先以欧洲主权债务危机为例,分析了债务危机导致欧元国际地位有所下降的内在逻辑。其次,从中国经济社会的基本特征入手,构建了人民币国际化条件下的IS-LM-BP模型,并对财政政策受到的约束进行分析。在此基础之上,运用动态规划法分析了人民币国际地位和财政支出之间的关系,并讨论了可能的财政政策两难问题及相应的最优财政政策路径。分析认为,如果未来出现财政政策两难,那么最优的财政政策路径是降低赤字或者债务水平,但已经无法回到初期的水平,形成积重难返的局面。最后,为找到合理的赤字和债务水平,利用动态面板门限模型进行了实证分析。得出的结论是,仅从提高人民币国际地位的角度看,我国的赤字水平已经超过最优水平,债务水平提升的空间有限。
第六章：人民币国际化对资产价格的影响。本章以美元和日元国际化进程中风险管理的教训为例,分析货币国际化后大规模资本流动对资产价格造成冲击的风险。本章首先从货币国际化的两个基本特征入手,将货币国际化的基本特征归结为本币升值和资本账户开放下的大规模资本流动。其次建立了人民币逐步国际化条件下人民币汇率、短期国际资本流动与资产价格之间的动态关系模型,从而分析人民币国际化初期人民币汇率、短期国际资本流动对国内资产价格造成的影响。最后运用马尔科夫区制转移模型考察了在人民币国际化的外部环境发生变化时,特别是国际金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机发生时,人民币国际化进程对国内资产价格造成的冲击。
第七章：人民币国际化对宏观稳定的影响。本章主要讨论了人民币国际化进程中的资本账户开放对宏观稳定造成的影响。其中,宏观稳定包括产出缺口稳定和价格水平稳定两个方面。文中以传统的总需求方程和总供给方程为基础,建立了一个包含人民币国际化因素的动态总需求与总供给方程,进而讨论人民币国际化和资本账户开放度提高对产出缺口和价格水平的冲击。理论模型说明,资本账户开放度提高会对宏观稳定造成双重影响,实证结果则表明,在样本期的大部分年份里,资本账户开放度提高主要导致了正向产出缺口扩大和价格水平上涨,也即经济过热。此外,本章从利率渠道角度阐释了人民币国际化、资本账户开放程度提高对货币政策的影响,是第二章的一个补充。结论是,在人民币国际化的进程中,货币当局以通货膨胀为目标的利率政策将会受到很大限制,只能实行以产出缺口为目标的利率政策。
第八章：人民币国际化风险管理的政策建议。经过前文的理论分析和实证检验,人民币在国际化进程中主要面临三大风险,即美元主导的国际货币体系下的市场阻挠和威慑风险、经济政策独立性受到约束的风险和经济金融稳定遭受冲击的风险。本章根据第三章至第七章关于人民币国际化风险的论证,结合第二章美元、欧元和日元在国际化进程中的风险控制经验和教训,具体提出了对人民币国际化风险进行控制的政策措施,主要包括促进中国经济增长方式转变,争取区域货币合作领导权,尽快清理地方政府债务,密切关注人民币有效汇率对股票价格的负作用,加强对国际资本流动的管理以及加强对流动性结构的专注等等。
最后是本文的结论部分,阐明了重要结论并提出了一些创新性观点。
第一,国际货币竞争的根本决定力量取决于由经济规模所决定的货币垄断能力,并且经济规模在推动货币国际化方面存在非对称效应,当一国的经济规模在世界经济中的比重小于23.6%时,该国只能以较低的速度提升其货币的国际地位,相应比重大于23.6%时,则可大幅提升其货币的国际地位。目前只有美国能够达到这一标准,欧元区也曾达到这一门限值,而日本距离这一数值还有较大差距。因此,虽然人民币国际化的经济基础牢固,但短期内只能以较低速度提高人民币国际地位,面临的市场阻力较高。
第二,人民币国际化进程中的资产选择行会通过货币替代和货币反替代对货币存量造成影响,而当前主要是货币反替代造成货币供给量被动增加的局面。影响我国货币政策独立性的主要渠道是汇率渠道,并通过人民币升值预期对货币存量造成影响,利率对货币存量的影响还不明显,美国货币供给增加的外部冲击也会对国内货币存量造成较大程度的影响。
第三,人民币国际化不仅影响货币政策独立性,对财政政策独立性也会产生影响,但影响程度较小。本文通过理论模型分析得到的主要结论是,在考虑货币国际地位的情况下,扩张的财政政策在促进经济增长方面可能导致财政政策两难,从而形成积重难返的局面,因此是不可持续的。在此基础之上,根据主要国际货币发行国的数据,首次提出了在考虑货币国际地位情况下合理的赤字水平和债务水平。
第四,在人民币国际化的起步阶段,国内流动性是造成股票价格大幅波动的主要原因,但国内流动性结构的变化很大程度上取决于短期国际资本流动的变化,而短期国际资本流动的变化一方面取决于人民币汇率的变化,另一方面则取决于国际金融经济环境的变化。当发生危机时,国内流动性趋于定期化,股票价格下跌,反之在平稳时期,国内流动性趋于活期化,股票价格上涨。此外,人民币有效汇率对股票价格的作用是负向的,这与2008年以前国内学者根据人民币名义汇率分析的结果恰好相反。
第五,理论模型分析认为,人民币国际化进程中的资本账户开放将对宏观稳定造成双重影响,并对以利率为中介目标的货币政策独立性造成影响。未来央行如果转向以利率为中介目标,那么相应的最终目标应当是产出,以通货膨胀为最终目标的货币政策在操作上存在困难。此外,经济自身的自我调节能力是影响人民币国际化对宏观稳定造成冲击的重要因素,如果调节能力差,则会放大资本账户开放对经济金融的冲击。实证分析显示,从人民币实现经常账户可自由兑换至今,资本账户开放度的提高扩大了正向产出缺口和价格水平上涨,导致经济过热。
Since the outbreak of international financial crisis in2008, much domestic and international attention has been payed to the issue of RMB internationalization. Chinese authorities grasped the favorable opportunity to consider the RMB internationalization at the strategic height, and adopted a series of positive measures to promote it. Howerer, it is not a simple open policy, but a strategic choice concerning the whole economic and financial reform, so it will affect the overall reform, if some aspects are not handled properly, or even course contradiction, it might lead to the gradual accumulation of risk and the ultimately break. For example, the risk of loss of the independence of economic and financial policies, the risk that massive reversal capital flows assault the economic and financial stability. Therefore we must identify the various risks effectively during the course of RMB internationalization, and study the reasons for its formation and conduction mechanism in order to prevent, control and resolve the risks.
The paper includes five parts. The first part, namely, chapter one, is the induction; the second part, namely, chapter two, is the general theory and practice; the third part is theoretical modeling and empirical studies, including chapter three, chapter four, chapter five, chapter six and chapter seven; the fourth part, namely, chapter eight, is policy recommendations; the fifth part is conclusion.
Chapter one:induction. It mainly introduces the background and significance, literature review and brief comment, research ideas, methods and content, innovations.
Chapter two:the basic theory and controlling practice of the currency internationalization's risk. There are three parts of the main content:the first is to classify and explain the risk of currency internationalization, the second is to analyze the factors affecting the risk. These two parts constitute the simple theory of currency internationalization. The third part is the practice of risk controlling for the three main international currencies:U.S.dollar, euro and yen. At this point, the chapter two builds the analysis framework of currency internationalization's risk from both theory and practice.
Chapter three:the market obstruct and deterrence risk analysis in the process of RMB internationalization. RMB internationalization can not be separated from today's international currency system which based on the dollar as the dominant single currency system, more accurately, it's an asymmetric currency system based on the dollar as the dominant and the euro as the subsidiary.RMB will inevitably have to compete with the two monopoly power. As it concerns the re-allocation of interests, Europe and the United States, especially the United States is bound to squzze the RMB internationalization to maintain the supremacy of dollar. According to the oligarchs theory, the chapter builds an asymmetric Stackelberg model to analyze the competition between U.S. dollar and RMB.The results show that RMB will suffer the exclusion due to dollar hegemony and monopoly power differences.RMB can not surpass dollar in short period and there will be possible cooperation in the medium and long periods. This paper argues that the currency monopoly power depends on the economy scale, by comparing the economy scale, the Japan's economy scale is relatively small, so that the size of economy has a threshold effect in promoting currency's internationalization. The empirical results show the existence of threshold effect, which reveals the fundamental reason of dollar's hegemony, euro's success and yen's failure.
Chapter four:RMB internationalization's affect on monetary policy's independe nee. From the currency substitution and reverse currency substitution, the text dem onstrates the asset selection behavior's affect to money supply thus monetary policy independence. First, the text analyzes the phenomenon of currency substitution and reverse currency substitution from multiple perspectives. Second, the text analyzes the mechanism that the asset selection behavior's affect to monetary policy indepe ndence. At last, on the basis of sticky-price model of Dornbush, the text establishe s a model of various asset selection behaviors and money supply by adding amend ed PPP and interest rate parity theory. After the empirical analysis, the chapter arg ues that the main channel of the impact to monetary policy is exchange rate whic h plays a role in RMB's appreciation.
Chapter five:RMB internationalization's affect on fiscal policy's independence. This chapter begins with sovereign debt crisis in Europe as an example, then analyze the internal logic that the debt crisis leading to the decline of euro's international status. Second, starting from the basic characteristics of China's economy and society, the text builds the IS-LM-BP model containing the factor of RMB internationalization and analyzes the constrains for fiscal policy. On this basis, the text analyzes the relationship between RMB's status and fiscal expenditure, and discusses the possible fiscal policy dilemma and the relevant optimal fiscal policy path. The analysis reveals that if there exists fiscal policy dilemma, the optimal path for fiscal policy will be reducing the deficit or debt level, but it will be higher than the initial level. At last, in order to find the reasonable deficit or debt level, the text analyzes the level by using dynamic panel threshold model. The conclusion is that China's deficit may have exceeded the optimal level and the space of enhancing debt is limited.
Chapter six:RMB internationalization's affect on asset price. This chapter analyze the risk that large scale capital flow's impulse to asset price on the basis of dollar and yen's experiences and lessons. The text begins with two basic characteristics of currency's internationalization:currency appreciation and the large scale capital flows under the capital account liberalization, followed by the establishment of the model which contains the RMB exchange rate, short-term international capital flows and asset price in order to analyze RMB exchange rate and short-term international capital flow's impact to asset price in the early stages of RMB internationalization. Lastly, the text examines the RMB internationalization's impact on asset price when external environment changes, especially the international financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occur.
Chapter seven:RMB internationalization's affect on macro stability. It mainly discusses the open of capital account's impact on macro stability including output gap and price during the course of RMB internationalization. Based on traditional aggregate demand equation and supply equation, the text establishes a dynamic aggregate demand equation and supply equation including RMB internationalization factor, and then discusses the increasing openness of capital account's impact on output gap and price. The theoretical model demonstrates that the increasing openness of capital account will cause double impact to macro stability. The empirical results show that the increasing openness of capital account mainly leads to positive output gap and rising price level in the most years of the samples, that is the overheating of economy. Furthermore, the text explains the RMB internationalization and the open of capital account's impact on monetary policy's independence as the useful complement to the chapter two. The result is that during the process of RMB internationalization, the interest policy targeting inflation will be limited to a large extent, the monetary authorities can only implement the interest rate policy targeting output gap.
Chapter8:policy recommendations of RMB internationalization's risk management. After the theoretical analysis and the empirical testing, RMB internationalization may cause three major risks:the market impeding and deterrence risk under the currency system dominated by dollar, the constrain of economic and financial policy's independence and the impulse to macro stability. This chapter presents some specific policy recommendations on the proof from chapter three to chapter seven and the experience and lessons about risk management from dollar, euro and yen, mainly including to promote transformation of the mode of economic growth, to fight for the leadership of regional monetary cooperation, to clean the local government debt, to pay close attention to the negative effect to stock price from RMB effective exchange rate, to strengthen the management of international capital flows and to strengthen the focus on liquidity structure.
The final part is the conclusion of the article which clarifying the important conclusions and propose some innovative ideas.
Firstly, the fundamental power of international currency's competition id the currency's monopoly power which determined by economy scale and there exists economy scale's asymmetric effect in promoting the currency's internationalization. If the economy scale's gravity in the world is lower than23.6%, one country will enhance the currency's international status only at a lower speed, and if the corresponding proportion is greater than23.6%, one country can enhance the currency's international status at a faster speed. At present, only the United States can reach the level, the euro zone has reached the threshold, while Japan from the standard, there is a wide gap. Therefore, although the economic foundation of RMB internationalization is solid, in the short-term, China can enhance RMB's international status only at a lower speed, facing a higher market resistance.
Secondly, the asset selection behavior can affect money supply through currency substitution and reverse currency substitution. At present it is the reverse currency substitution that causes the increase of money supply. The main channel of the impact to monetary policy is exchange rate which plays a role in the way of RMB's appreciation; interest rate's impact is not obvious, the external shock that the increase of U.S. money supply will also cause a great impact on domestic money supply.
Thirdly, RMB internationalization can not only affect the monetary policy's independence, but also affect the fiscal policy's independence to a small extent. The main conclusion from the theoretical model is that the expansion of fiscal policy in promoting economy growth may lead to a fiscal policy dilemma, and therefore it is not sustainable. Based on it, the article first present the reasonable deficit and debt level considering the currency's international status according to the data of the major international currency issuing countries.
Fourthly, at the early stage of RMB internationalization, domestic liquidity is the main reason that caused the stock price's significant fluctuation, but the change of domestic liquidity's structure is determined by the change of short-term international capital flows which is determined by two factors, the one is RMB exchange rate, the other is the change of international economic and financial environment. When the crisis happened, domestic liquidity decline in activity and thus the stock price falls; conversely the anti-is. Moreover, the impact on stock price caused by RMB effective exchange rate is negative, this is opposite with many scholars' results that caused by RMB nominal exchange rate before2008.
Fifthly, the theoretical model insists that the open of capital account in the course of RMB internationalization has double influence on macro stability, and the monetary policy's independence whose intermediate target is interest will be weaken. The interest policy targeting inflation will be hard to implement, the central bank can only implement the interest rate policy targeting output gap. Moreover, the self-regulating capacity of the economy is an important factor that affects the impulse on macro stability from RMB internationalization. If the capacity of adjustment is poor, it will enlarge the capital account liberalization's impact on economy and finance. The empirical analysis shows that the improvement of capital accounts openness enlarge the positive output gap and the rise of price level, leading to overheating of the economy.
引文
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