摘要
随着国家对环境保护的重视日益加大,电力工业节能减排要求也日趋严格,而我国70%的发电是以燃煤的火电为主,近些年燃料价格变动频繁,煤炭价格上涨明显,直接增加了电厂的经营成本,给火电厂的经营带来了很大的困难,另外由于国家对可再生能源发展的政策扶持,也给火电企业的经营带来压力。随着知识经济和信息网络的发展,发电侧的竞争将会越来越大,未来将面临实施节能调度、环保新标准和竞价上网所带来的重大挑战。目前的火电信息管理不能有效地解决由此带来的问题,缺少节能调度优化模型分析,短中长期电力预测与竞价模型分析,基于环保新标准的评价管理模型分析,所以本文提出对基于信息网络集成分析的火电管理复杂体系进行研究,试图在火电信息化管理中建立解决上述新问题的有关模型及计算分析,为提升新形势下火电厂竞争力作出贡献。
在此情况下,本文从信息网络集成分析的角度来分析火电企业应该如何管理各种资源、业务流程应当如何优化等问题。通过本文的研究,提出了一些在信息网络集成分析下的火电管理观点,对火电企业形成和巩固核心竞争力,提升自身的管理水平提供参考。本文的主要工作如下：
(1)在分别对火电管理发展历程、火电管理体系现状、优化理论及方法进行阐述的基础上,针对火电企业面临的节能、竞价及环保等新问题,给出了信息网络集成分析的概念和实施方法,并对其内涵、功能、特点进行了定义,在此基础上初步形成了信息网络集成分析理论。
(2)分析了火电管理复杂体系组成部门及影响因素,其中包括外部环境分析,通过分析火电企业经营的外部环境,例如节能调度的要求,电煤价格的波动,国家对于电厂环保的要求,当地的水资源状况等,内部环境分析,则主要从提升企业自身的经营管理方面来考虑。
(3)考虑新形势下对火电管理造成影响的因素,构建了基于信息网络集成分析的火电管理复杂体系。将企业的竞争分析、环境评价、节能管理、燃料管理、运行管理、可靠性管理、检修模式管理和物资管理等模块实现统一,实现实时动态集成分析,以及各职能部门的信息及时传递,实时决策。
(4)提出了基于信息网络集成分析的火电管理的数据库、模型库及知识库构建,利用数据挖掘技术从数据库中挖掘信息变化规律,形成可供模型分析的预处理信息,然后调取模型库中经过优化比较的预测、评价或优化决策模型进行分析。利用知识库中的经验和智能等信息,通过知识挖掘对分析结果进行进一步修正和改进,得到较合理的最终分析,有利竞价上网、节能优化和环保评价水平的提高。在模型库中,建立了用于竞价和调度的基于方差—协方差优选组合的电力需求短中长期预测模型。
(5)研究了基于信息网络集成分析的火电管理复杂体系绩效评价。对我国火电企业绩效评价的现状和不足进行了分析,分别从财务效益、节能减排以及知识创新三大能力方面出发构建了我国火电管理复杂体系的绩效指标体系,建立了基于熵权和AHP组合模型的绩效评价,并进行了实证。
(6)分析了基于信息网络集成分析的火电管理复杂体系运行机制。从企业治理、火电设备运行检修、企业知识创新管理三个主要方面出发,对火电管理复杂体系中的运行机制进行了探讨并给了相应建议。对设备状态评价时,建立了基于FEAHP的设备运行状态评价模型,并进行了实证。
(7)提出了基于信息网络集成分析的火电管理复杂体系保障机制。从政策保障、技术保障、人才保障以及知识创新保障四个方面出发,给出信息网络集成分析环境下火电管理复杂体系相应的保障机制和建议,为火电企业的可持续发展提供参考。
With the increasing attention of environmental protection, energy saving of electric power industry also requires to be managed strictly, while seventy percent of China's power generation is based on coal-fired thermal, and fuel prices are changing frequently in recent years, which is significantly directly increasing the operating costs of the power plant. It brings great difficulties to the operation of thermal power plants. In addition, due to our national policy is to support renewable energy development, it also give pressure to the thermal power plant operation. With the development of knowledge economy and information networks, the power generation side's competition will face the challenges of implementation of energy efficient scheduling, new environmental protection standards and the electricity bidding. Nowadays, thermal power management can not effectively solve the resulting problems, the reason is short of energy-saving scheduling optimization model, short-term and long-term load forecasting model analysis and the evaluation management based on new environmental protection standards, so this paper proposes an information networks integrated analysis of the thermal power management, whose purpose is trying to solve these new problems in the thermal power, it will contribute to enhance the competitiveness of the thermal power plant under the new situation.
In this context, the paper stands the perspective of an integrated information network, and presenting the themal power companies should consider how to manage a variety of resources, how to optimize business processes and so on. Through this study, a series of ideas and methods of network integration are present. It will give help for improving the management of thermal power business. The major work of this paper is as follows:
(1) Base on the description of the development history of themal power management, the condition of thermal power management system and the optimization theories, the methodes and concepts of information network integration analysis are given, and defined its intension, function and feature. Based on these, it form the information network integrated analysis theory.
(2) Analyze the impact factors for complex system of the thermal power management, including external environmental analysis which includes coal price fluctuations, energy saving requirement and the local water resources and so on. In the other side, the internal environmental analyses are fouce on the enterprise management itself.
(3) Build thermal power complex management systems based on the information network integrated analysis theory, which union the company's fuel management, operation management, reliability management, maintenance mode, operation management, materials management and so on. The system is dynamic and integrated in order to achieve the transfer the information in related department at the same time to making real-time decision.
(4) The database, model database and knowledge database of thermal power management are built by information network integrated analysis theory. Data mining technology is used to extract the pattern of the information changing in order to form the pretreatment information. Then the corresponding model will give the prediction, evaluation or decision information. At last, the knowledge database is used to modify or improved the results further. For example, in model database, a variance-covariance forecasting model is built to forecast long term load, which is useful of providing a more reasonable comments and suggestions to thermal power management.
5) The performance evaluation of thermal complex management system is studied based on information network integrated analysis theory. The shortage of the currently performance is analyzed at first, and an index system is built from financial, energy saving and knowledge innovation three aspects. At last, a combined model of using entropy and AHP method to determine the weight is present to solve the evaluation problem, and a case study is also given.
(6) An operatiom mechanism analysis of the thermal power system operation management is given, which is from enterprise management mechanism, power generation equipment operation maintenance mechanism and enterprise knowledge management system three aspects. The accordingly recommendations are also given. When the status of the device is needed to determine, a novel method FEAHP is used to evaluate the status, and a corresponding case analysis is also given.
(7) A series protection mechanism is given from policy, technical support, human resources, knowledge innovation four aspects, and the corresponding recommendations are also given, which is help for the sustainable development of thermal power enterprise.
引文
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