摘要
储油罐遭遇地震破坏所带来的巨大经济损失和严重的火灾、爆炸、环境污染等次生灾害使得储油罐震害预测工作成为生命线地震工程领域的一个重要课题，而目前对储油罐震害预测的方法尚缺乏系统的研究。本文从实际出发，结合泉州市重大科技项目《泉州市规划区抗震防灾规划》，在研究泉港石化工业区生命线工程抗震防灾课题的基础上，对储油罐的震害预测进行了研究。
针对储油罐震害预测中存在的随机性和模糊性，本文提出基于概率论和模糊理论的储油罐模糊抗震可靠度震害预测模型，并将储油罐结构各部件和地基视为一个系统，研究整个储油罐体系的模糊抗震可靠度。
首先，对储油罐进行了抗震分析。本文对储油罐的地震响应从理论上进行了分析，并讨论了几种主要的简化计算模型，选取了适合于本文震害预测方法的抗震计算模型，从而建立储油罐系统各失效模式的安全裕量方程。
其次，本文提出将震害划分等级，并研究了储油罐抗震破坏准则和对应各震害等级的破坏界限特征值。同时，分析了储油罐震害预测中影响较大的随机性因素，并建议了主要随机变量的概率模型和统计特征值的选取方法。在JC法计算可靠性指标β的基础上，提出了将优化方法与可靠度近似计算相结合的可靠度优化算法，方便了储油罐各失效模式的可靠度计算。在储油罐系统可靠度计算中，采用条件关联系数来考虑各失效模式相关性的影响，进而得出储油罐系统可靠度估算值。
再次，对储油罐震害预测中的模糊性因素进行了分析，并主要讨论了地震烈度等级划分、场地类别评判以及震害等级划分中由于人为分等所带来的模糊性，引入模糊数学方法对这些模糊性进行了处理，并将随机性影响与模糊性影响相结合，提出了储油罐模糊抗震可靠度震害预测模型。
最后，本文以泉港石化工业区一实际项目为例，对包括场地地震危险性概率分析、场地类别模糊综合评判、储油罐体系模糊抗震可靠度计算以及储油罐长期震害预测全过程进行了系统的分析，把本文提出的震害预测模型应用到工程实际中。通过算例分析表明，本文的储油罐震害预测模型能够反映储油罐震害特点，与传统的定值法相比，本文方法可以给出更为详细、具体的震害预测结果。
The damage of oil tank always comes with huge economic loss, serious fire, blast and environmental pollution. This make about oil tank an important research in sphere of lifeline earthquake engineering. But there is still lack of research on the mehtods of earthquake disaster prediction about oil tank. In this thesis, based on the fact, band together the important technological item, the earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction programming about Quanzhou, earthquake disaster prediction about oil tank is researched based on the earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction researching about the lifeline earthquake engineering in QuanGang petrochemical industrial park.
contrapose the randomicity and fuzzy factor in earthquake disaster prediction about oil tank, an earthquake disaster prediction model is presented based on the probability theory and fuzzy theory. In this model, the parts of oil tank and toft are treated to constitute a system. And the fuzzy aseismic reliability of this system is researched.
At first, seismic analysis is made about oil tank. Based on theoretical analysis about the seismic reponse of oil tank and discussion about the simple seismic analysis model, the adaptive aseismic calculation model is chosen for earthquake disaster prediction model presented in thesis. And so get the status equation of various failure modes.
Secondly, the author classifies the earthquake disaster about oil tank. The failure criteria and the failure boundary line characteristic value of each earthquake disaster grade are researched. The most important random factors in the earthquake disaster prediction is analyzed, the probabilistic model and statistical characteristic value of the primary random variables are also put forward. In this thesis, a reliability optimum algorithm is put forward based on the JC algorithm. When calculating the system reliability of oil tank, conditional correlation coefficient is used to consider the failure dependence among various failure modes. And so get the estimated reliability value of the system.
Thirdly, the author analyzes the fuzzy factors in earhtquake disaster prediction, and mostly discussed the fuzzy factors brought with seismic intensity grade classification, site grade evaluation and earthquake disaster grade classification. And so the fuzzy theory is applied to deal with these fuzzy factous.
Finally, with an example of QuanGang petrochemical industrial park, the author systematically analyzes the whole process of earthquake disaster prediction about oil tank, which includes the seismic risk analysis, site grade fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, system reliability calculation and long-term earthquake disaster prediction. Analysis about the example shows that the earthquake disaster prediction modle about oil tank presented in this thesis reflects the earthquake disaster character of oil tank, and compared with the traditional fixed value method, the method put forward in this thesis give more detailed result.
引文
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