摘要
资源错配(Misallocation)造成经济增长效率下降的事实在现实的经济运行中比比皆是,不仅涉及微观企业的要素配置效率、中观层面的产业组织效率,还涉及宏观层面的需求结构变化、技术进步状况以及经济增长质量。资源错配概念的形成和对于资源错配的研究始于Hsieh and Klenow(2007),由于该领域的研究为经济增长质量特别是TFP增长的研究提供了一个全新的分析视角,因此,在近6年来获得了国内外学界的广泛关注。在这之前,传统的要素市场扭曲理论将扭曲定义为要素的边际产出相对于竞争状态下要素市场出清价格的偏离,但在扭曲的程度、大小研究上踌躇不前,事实上完全竞争和理想状况下的要素边际收入是无法有效测算的；而资源错配理论则形成了系统性的从微观到宏观的理论基础,对错配的衡量也可以绕开对完全竞争状况下要素边际收入的测算,但这些研究大多最后归结为对TFP的影响测算,很少讨论其他方面的影响效应,且更注重错配的结果,较少讨论错配的过程,还将错配的原因从研究的一开始就视为既定的存在,不仅影响了其对现实经济的解释能力,而且造成了理论完整度的缺失。有鉴于此,构建和揭示资源错配-产业结构失衡-经济增长质量的作用机制和理论框架,对于处于经济转型关键时期的中国来说,将会具有非常重要的理论和现实意义。
本文从分析中国在转型期出现的诸多特殊事实与资源错配的关联性及其形成和传导机制出发,通过在Kongsamut.et al.(2001)、Baumol (1967)、Acemoglu&Guerrieri (2008)、Curuk (2011)等的多部门增长模型中引入资源错配因素的方法,修正和拓展了传统的非均衡增长理论,从而构建起了从资源错配-产业结构失衡-非均衡增长的系统性理论分析框架,在上述分析框架的基础上,我们还进行了细致的实证检验,主要从封闭和开放双维度的视角分别探讨了资源错配对产业结构、需求结构、产出结构、收入分配和地区差异的经济影响效应,此外,在对外开放条件下资源错配传导机制的论述中,我们还对资源错配变量进行了内生化的尝试,文章的最后,我们还对资源错配的影响因素及其经济影响效应的持续性进行了深入的探讨。从上述分析中我们得到了以下几个有意义的结论：
(1)“卡尔多事实”和“库兹涅茨事实”在转型期的中国并不具有广泛的适用性,而转型期出现的诸多问题与资源错配有着广泛而密切的联系。通过对内需下降、投资过度、产业结构失衡、收入差距扩大等在中国转型型出现的典型事实与资源错配的相关性分析我们发现,不仅资本-劳动配比增长率具有长期不稳定的特征(与“卡尔多事实”相违),而且中国目前产业间的要素配置方式与传统的产业变迁规律相悖(即我国目前二三产业间的要素流动方向与产业间技术水平的变动方向相反,与“库兹涅茨事实”相违),因此,我们认为,当前中国的产业结构还不具备转型升级的技术基础。
(2)资源错配和产业结构失衡是既相互联系、相互作用又相互影响、相互制约的两个过程。将资源错配指数分解成产业内绝对错配指数、要素的自价格错配指数和产业间相对错配指数,并进行分产业、分地区和分所有制行业的测算和分析后我们发现：三次产业资源错配指数与我国的经济结构变动周期具有同涨同落的变动趋势,这就表明资源配置状态的变化与经济结构改变有相当强的相关性；而行业错配指数测算的结果显示我国的行业错配情况形成了两个极端,即一个是长期自然垄断的烟草和水、燃气供应业和矿采业,另一个是竞争激烈、低附加值和低技术含量的劳动密集型行业如纺织服装、文教体育用品业和家具木材业,两者存在着严重的资源错配；此外从测算结果显示东部地区在中国三个地区拥有较高的资源配置效率。
(3)中国目前转型期出现的特有经济现象(包括过度投资、内需不足、行业垄断以及产业间要素流动与生产率水平的倒置)与资源错配有着非常显著的统计相关性.若我们能够消除资源错配,那么就能使中国的经济增长获得质的提升。通过对经济增长的再分解我们发现若消除所有错配年份的错配因素,则在这些年份中,可使我国GDP增长率平均每年提高0.90个百分点。而对资源错配-需求结构-产业结构间的统计相关性分析我们还发现：若资源错配水平减少1个单位,那么我们可使消费需求平均增加0.62个百分点,缓解过度投资需求6.84个百分点,更进一步地,在优化第二产业结构4.32%的同时提升第三产业的产出比重近2.16个百分点。
(4)在短期内,不同部门的差异性技术优势会加剧资源在各部门间的非效率配置,通过国际贸易而产生的技术溢出效应并不总能促进各部门均衡而有效率地发展。对35个工业行业的面板数据分析中我们发现,与技术领先国和技术落后国进行贸易,技术溢出对行业间资源配置的影响具有截然相反的作用,原因主要在于与技术领先国的贸易削弱了行业间的竞争促进效应,扩大了部分行业相对其他行业的技术优势,于是在促使要素不均衡流动同时加剧了资源错误配置的程度。
(5)政府干预和特殊制度安排是影响资源有效配置的重要原因,而且资源错配的经济影响效应具有系统性和持续性特征。对影响资源错配的因素进行归类和统计相关性分析后发现,政府干预和现有的特殊制度安排不仅使国有垄断企业能够低价获取投入要素,而且“经营”性政府与垄断特权的结合不断助长了垄断行业资本的过度形成,从而对私有资本形成了长期的挤出效应；而对资源错配经济影响效应的持续性特征进行的实证分析发现,资本和劳动的错配对产业结构失衡有持久性影响,经济系统对1个单位的资源错配冲击的响应需要8-10期以后才能逐渐收敛。
基于上述分析结果,本文在行文的最后提出了几条粗浅的建议：比如增加并拓宽私有资本准入领域,减少部门和行业垄断；加快要素市场改革,减少要素流动障碍；加强和鼓励创新创造,加速减少、替代并淘汰落后耗能产业；加快制度创新和经济体制改革,减少要素在不同部门间的无序配置；加快收入分配方式改革,减少要素收入差距的持续扩大；加强区域协调互动,减少区域封锁和区域间的同质竞争。
The inefficiency of economic growth caused by the resource misallocation exists everywhere in the real economy, not only includes the microcosmic factor allocation efficiency and the meso-level industrial organization efficiency, but also involves in the macro-level demand structure change, technological progress status and quality of economic growth.The formation of the concept of the misallocation and studies in this aera start from Hsieh and Klenow (2007). The researches in this field got a lot of attention at home and abroad in recent6years for the reason of providing a new analytical perspective on the quality of economic growth, especially in TFP growth research.Prior to this, the traditional distortion theories hold that the allocation of inputs is inefficient in the sense that marginal outputs of factors deviate from its competitive market-clearing price. And as a matter of fact, the marginal revenue of factors are unable to effectively measure in the perfect competition condition.So that distortion theories always have many difficulties in measuring the degree of distortions.while the resource misallocation theory formed a systematic theoretical basis from micro to macro,and the measure of misallocation can bypass the calculation of marginal incomes under the perfect competitive condition.But most of these studies finally boils down to the measurement of decline of TFP growth which caused by misallocation, rarely discussed other aspects of the impact effects.Besides, they always pay more attention to the results of misallocation, less discussion about the process and the cause of misallocation (Assuming it already exists in advance). Which not only affects their explanatory power on the real economy, but also affects the integrity and the systematicness of the theory.In view of this, to construct and reveal a mechanism and the theoretical framework among misallocation, industrial structure imbalance and the quality of economic growth,will have a very important theoretical and practical significance to the crucial period of economic transition in China.
This paper firstly analyzes the relevance of the misallocation and some special economic problems which appeared during the China's economic transition period.Then,we revise and expand the traditional non-equilibrium growth theory through introducing the misallocation index into the multi-sectoral growth model, which build up an systematic theoretical framework on misallocation, structural imbalance and unbalanced growth.Based on the above analysis framework,we also carry out a detailed empirical tests in two dimensions, mainly analyze the economic effects that caused by misallocation from the perspective of closed and open economy,which explore the statistical correlation between misallocation and industrial structure, demand structure, the structure of output, income distribution and regional differences.In addition,we attempt to introduce endogenous thought of misallocation into theoretical model under the condition of opening up In chapter7. And we discuss the continuous influences of misallocation and its causation at the end of the article. From the above point of view, we get the following significant conclusions:
(1)"Kaldor facts" and the "Kuznets facts" does not have broad applicability during the transition period of China, and the problems that arise in this period have extensive and close contact with misallocation.Through analysing the decline in domestic demand, excessive investment, industrial structural imbalances, widening income gap and other emerging stylized facts in China,we find that not only the capital-labor ratio has a long-term unstable growth characteristic(contrary to the "Kaldor facts"),and China's current factor allocation between industries are totally contrary to the law of industrial change.(ie, the allocation and mobility direction of factors between secondary and tertiary industry are opposite to the natural technology level of industries,that is not comply with the "Kuznets facts"). so we believe that the current China's transformation and upgrading of industrial structure does not yet have the technology base.
(2) Misallocation and industrial structure imbalance are two different kinds of non-efficiency states, but they are both interrelated and interacting.After decomposing the misallocation index into intra-industry absolute misallocation index, factor price misallocation index and the relative misallocation index between industries,we calculate and analyze the misallocation indices on different industries, different regions and different ownership sectors,then we find that:Three industry misallocation index and China's economic structure has the same movement trend, which shows changes in the state of resource allocation and changes of economic structure has very strong correlation.secondly,The calculation results of industry misallocation index shows that the resource allocation state of China's industries has formed two extremes:one is about tobacco industry,water, gas supply industry and ore mining industry,which have natural monopoly characteristic. The other is highly competitive, low value-added,low-tech and labor-intensive industries such as textiles clothing, furniture, stationery and sporting goods industry and the timber industry. Both of which exist serious misallocation.In addition, from the estimates we also find that eastern region has the highest efficiency of resource allocation in China's three main regions
(3) The special economic problems (including excessive investment, insufficient domestic demand, state-owned capital crowding-out of private capital, the shortage of migrant workers and so on) that appear in China's transition period have a very significant statistical correlation with misallocation.If we can eliminate the misallocation factores, China's economic growth will be able to make a qualitative improvement.And through further decomposition of economic growth we find that if we can eliminate all "wedges" in the misallocation years, China's GDP growth rate can raise0.90percentage points averagely in these mismatch years. In chapter6,the paper analyzes the statistical correlation between misallocation, final demand structure and industrial structure,the results show that if the level of misallocation is reduced one unit,then we can make the consumer demand increased by an average of0.62percentage points, alleviate excessive investment demand by6.8%,and further more,can enhance the proportion of tertiary industry output nearly2.16percentage points.
(4) In the short term, the difference technical advantages in different departments will exacerbate inefficient allocation of resources between industries,and the technology spillovers through international trade will not always lead to a result of balanced and efficient development among departments as well.Based on the analysis of35industrial sectors'panel data,we find that technology spillover has diametrically opposite effect on the allocation of resources among industries when we trade with different countries that have heterogeneous technical levels,the reason mainly lies in trading with technology leading countries will weaken the pro-competition effect between industries,and will also expand some industry's technology advantage over other industries at the same time.So the result will exacerbate the degree of misallocation and uneven flow of resources among sectors as we mentioned above.
(5) The economic effects of the misallocation have systematic and persistent features while government intervention is an important reason for misallocation.After classifying and analyzing the factors that cause misallocation by statistical ways,we find that government's institutional intervention can not only help the state-owned enterprises to obtain low-cost input factors, but also encourages the excessive capital formation of monopoly sectors with the combination of monopoly privileges.And thus,it will form a crowding-out effect on private capital during a very long period of time.We then conduct an empirical analysis on the economic effects of misallocation,the results show that capital and labor misallocation have a lasting impact on the structural imbalance,and as a response to1unit shock of misallocation,the economic system will take8-10time period to gradually converge at last.
Based on the above analysis, the paper puts forward several suggestions:for example, increase and broaden the private capital access field, reducing the sector and industrial monopolies; accelerating factor market reforms to reduce barriers to factor mobility; strengthen and encourage innovation and creativity, accelerate the reduction, replacement and elimination of outdated energy-consuming industries; accelerate institutional innovation and economic reform, reducing the inefficient allocation of factors among industries; accelerate the reform of income distribution in order to reducing the widening factor income gap; strengthen regional coordination and interaction, reducing regional and inter-regional blockade and homogeneous competition between regions.
引文
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