摘要
上个世纪四、五十年代,经济学家们发现了一种用传统比较优势理论难以解释的贸易现象,即发达国家之间经常发生进口同时又出口同种类产品的贸易现象,这就是产业内贸易。为此,经济学家们放松传统贸易理论的假设,提出用规模经济、不完全竞争等理论来解释贸易新现象,藉此,诞生了新贸易理论。这种贸易理论虽然没有抛弃传统贸易理论,其新主要在于对传统理论进行了较大的发展。产业内贸易理论最初发现于工业制成品贸易中,因此,其解释的最初范围较少涉及农产品。近年来,一些学者涉足农产品产业内贸易研究,发现产业内贸易在农产品国际(地区)贸易占有一定的地位,农产品突破产业间贸易的界限,表明农产品国际贸易引导下的农业领域的国际分工发生了深刻的变化。闽台实属一个国家,但因历史原因,闽台分属不同的关税区,闽台间的农产品贸易又必须遵循国际贸易规则和惯例进行。这种贸易模式本质上是一种新的贸易模式,当然,其间也容纳着闽台小额贸易的模式等新现象。那么,闽台农产品贸易有没有产业内贸易,规模多大,产生的原因是什么,决定闽台农产品产业内贸易强度的因素有哪些,研究这些问题对发现闽台农产品贸易规律,找准闽台农产品贸易的定位,指出影响因素,有针对性地制定对策具有一定的理论意义。同时,有利于闽台农产品贸易政策完善,有助于福建农业产业结构调整,实现农业现代化,推动闽台两地共同争取世界市场,实现优势互补、减少相互竞争,实现双赢,具有重要的现实意义。因此,本文着重对闽台产业内贸易发展现状及其决定因素进行深入研究。
首先对闽台农产品贸易发展历程、竞争与互补关系进行了全面的阐述。闽台农产品贸易发展的历程经历了试探起步、起伏发展和持续升温三个阶段,1996-2009年正处在闽台农产品贸易起伏发展和持续升温的时期。因此,其流量上呈现出总量规模不断扩大,在各自的农产品国际贸易和两岸贸易中的比重不断扩大,贸易依存度不断扩大,福建对台湾农产品贸易顺差不断扩大。在闽台农产品发展历程和流量分析的基础上,从闽台农产品竞争关系的角度,通过对闽台农产品十四年来出口产品相似度指数、显示比较优势指数的变化趋势进行考察,确定闽台农产品具有一定的竞争关系,并在近年有上升的趋势,同时,保持了各自具有比较优势的一些产品,产品相似度有不同程度的提高。闽台农产品互补关系主要通过闽台农产品十四年来的特化系数和贸易互补指数的变动态势进行分析获得的,可以看出闽台农产品产业内贸易互补要低于产业间贸易互补：闽台农产品贸易存在着较强的贸易互补性,台湾对福建的出口依赖和进口依赖强于福建对台湾的出口依赖和进口依赖。
其次,本文探讨了闽台农产品产业内贸易强度(水平)。通过测算闽台农产品贸易的GL指数、Bruelhart边际产业内贸易指数和Thom&McDowell边际总产业内贸易指数、水平产业内贸易指数和垂直产业内贸易指数,深入分析了闽台农产品按HS分章、类和整体农产品的产业内贸易状况,发现闽台农产品产业内贸易与产业间贸易并存,整体农产品产业内贸易强度比较低,资源禀赋仍是闽台间农产品生产和分工的基础。除水海产品的产业内贸易强度相对稳定外,其他种类的农产品贸易中,比重大的农产品,其产业内贸易水平较低,比重小的反而产业内贸易水平较高,加权后的闽台整体农产品产业内贸易水平较低。从Bruelhart边际产业内贸易指数来看,其在计算期内有一定的波动,但波动幅度除个别年度外不大,十四年来,闽台农产品Bruelhart边际产业内贸易指数一般都小于0.5,表明闽台农产品贸易的增量主要来自产业间贸易。水平和垂直产业内贸易的测度结果表明,闽台农产品产业内贸易的增量主要来自垂直产业内贸易。
第三,本文在归纳和总结前人产业内贸易强度决定因素的基础上,从实证角度分析了闽台农产品产业内贸易强度的决定因素分析。首先用描述性分析的范式,通过闽台农业生产要素、需求、政策和产品差异等状况的实证分析,从产业内贸易决定因素的机理上剖析闽台农产品贸易为何产业内贸易与产业间贸易并存,为何产业内贸易水平较低。研究发现,生产要素供给影响着农业生产结构,生产要素增长率的变动影响这进出口模式,人均收入等需求因素影响消费模式,进而影响产业内贸易水平,两岸相关政策限制了闽台农产品产业内贸易的发展。其次运用ECM协整回归、经典多元回归、Granger因果分析等手段建立产业内贸易理论分析模型,寻找影响产业内贸易因素的相关指标及其代理变量,从闽台双边贸易的角度建立计量模型。在建构模型的过程中,考察了决定闽台产业内贸易水平的因素,由于闽台GDP差异指数、人口规模和市场规模变量或其代理变量没有纳入ECM模型进行分析,故运用Granger因果分析和协整检验去分析它们对闽台农产品GL产业内贸易的影响,同时,还分析了闽台农产品Bruelhart边际产业内贸易水平、水平和垂直产业内贸易水平的影响因素。
最后,本文在上述分析的基础上,依据前文分析,指出闽台农产品贸易合作的领域、合作基础和合作方式,最后探讨调整和促进闽台农产品贸易,提高闽台农产品产业内贸易水平的对策和建议。
In 40's and 50's of Last century, Economist had found a phenomena that is difficult to be explain by traditional theory about comparative advantage, that is, some developed countries frequently import or export products under the same industry one another, the phenomena was treated as an intra-industry trade. Hence, Economists loosened the hypothesis about traditional trade theory, then putted forward a new theory that include scale ecnomic and imperfect competition to explain the new trade phenomena, from the location, borned the new trade theory. The new trade theory did not give up the traditional trade theory, but it enomously expand the traditional one. Initially the economists found the intra-industry trade in manufactured goods trade, hence primacily it paid little attention on explaining agri-products intra-industry trade. Recently some experts began to research on agri-product intra-industry trade, they found that agri-product intra-industry trade predominate some positions in international agri-products trade, have broken out the limitations of inter-industry trade. Above mentioned, all show us that agri-product international trade lead to international division of labour to profoundly change in agricultural scope. Actually, FuJian and TaiWan belong to the same country,but out of historical cause, FuJian and TaiWan classed into the different customs area, so agri-products trade between FuJian and TaiWan must obey the rule and convention of international trade.The trade pattern between FuJian and TaiWan essentially is a new trade pattern, the new trade pattern contain "petty trade" between FuJian and TaiWan and etc. Then is there intra-industry trade in agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan? How scale? Why? What is the determineant factor? The research on those questions can help us to find the regular of agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan, to position the trade between FuJian and TaiWan, to point out influencing factor, to make polices intentionally. All of these take on great theoretical significantance. At the same time, to make the questions clear can benefit to consummate agri-product trade policy, to help FuJian adjust agricultural industrial structure, to realize agricultural modernization, to push FuJian and TaiWan together striving for the world market, to realize complementing adisvantage and a win-win situation, to decrease reciprocal competition.All of these take on important realistic significantance. So this dissertation stress on research on the situation and the determineant factors of intra-industry trade between FuJian and TaiWan deeply.
First of all, the dissertation entirly set forth historical course and the mutual competing and complementary relations of agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan. The agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan have underwent three historical phrase, which respectively are the exploreing beginning trade period、fluctuating developing period and the persistent-overheating developing period, the period from 1996 to 2009 belong to the last two periods.So the scale of the aggregate agri-product trade flow between FuJian and TaiWan constantly enlarge,the share of its aggregate trade flow on TaiWan and FuJian's international agri-product trade and agri-product trade between the two sides of the TaiWan straits has shown a gradual expanding trend.The degree of FuJian's agri-product trade depending on TaiWan's and of TaiWan's agri-product trade depending on FuJian's gradually improved, FuJian's trade surplus toward TaiWan of agri-product trade increasingly expanded.On the basis of analysising the trade flow and historical course of agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan, in terms of the competing relations of agri-product trade between FuJian and TaiWan,the dissertation explored the index of similarity of Taiwan and FuJian exporting agri-products, of revealed comparative advantage(RCA), and examined their variation trend, then Taiwan and FuJian's exporting agri-products is to some extent ascertained to be taken on competing relations, their competition began to ascend in recent year, the degree of similarity of exporting agri-products increased in various degrees,but Taiwan and FuJian both sustained some agri-product in comparative advantage.Trade specialization cofficient(TSC) and complementarity index(CI) of agri-products between Taiwan and FuJian for 14 years is analyzed, and obtaining their value each year and variation trend. By above the cofficient and index, the dissertation find that agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian is possessed of complementarity relationship, the conclusion is that complementarity of intra-industry agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian is lower than complementarity of inter-industry agri-products trade. However, through intense complementarity relationship of agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian, the dissertation find that the dependence on FuJian's agri-product of TaiWan's agri-products trade is stronger than the dependence on TaiWan's agri-products of FuJian's agri-products trade.
Followed by researching the level (intensity) of agri-product intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian. In terms of harmonized commodity description and coding system(HS),dividing the commodity into chapter、class、the whole,the dissertation analysis the situation of agri-product intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian in deepth, by calculating the GL index, Briilhart marginal intra-industry trade index and Thom&McDowell marginal intra-industry trade index including horizontal intra-industry trade(HIIT) and vertical intra-industry trade(VIIT) index. There is intra-industry trade and inter-industry trade of agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian, the level of the whole agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is lower, so endowment of agricultural resources is the base of agricultural production and division of labour between Taiwan and FuJian. Except that aquatic-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian relativly steady, the proportion of the other agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian is bigger, the level of agri-products intra-industry trade is lower, on the contrary, the proportion of the other agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian is smaller, the level of agri-products intra-industry trade is higher, the weighted level of the whole agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is more lower. From agri-products asa whole,the Briilhart marginal intra-industry trade index between Taiwan and FuJian has some fluctuations, but the wave amplitude is not wide except for a few years. In the past 14years, in general, the value of the Brulhart marginal intra-industry trade index has been less than 0.5,indicating that the increments of agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian are mainly from inter-industry trade,instead of intra-industry trade. The results of HIIT and VIIT reveal that the increments of agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian are mainly from the increase in VIIT.
Thirdly, on the basis of the generalization and summarizing up the results of previous research into the determinent factor of intra-industry trade, from empirical analysis, the determinent factor of intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is examined. First, takeing advantage of descriptive analysis, in terms of the determinate mechanism of intra-industry trade, the cause of agri-products intra-industry trade coexsiting with agri-products inter-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian and the low level of agri-products intra-industry trade is explored,by comparing the condition of FuJian's agricultural production factor、demand、policy、difference of agri-products and etc with Taiwan's. It show that the supply of agricultural production factor take effect on agri-products production structure, and then the variation of growth rate of agricultural production factor influence the mode of export and import; such the income per capita as demanding factor,they influence consumption pattern, and then influenc intra-industry trade; the related policy of the two sides of the TaiWan straits limite the development of agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian. So agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian coexsit with agri-products inter-industry trade and the level of agri-products intra-industry trade is low. Second, the economtretic model is established to analyze the determinent factor affecting the intense of intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian, which include ECM cointegration regression model、classical model of multiple regression、Granger causality test and cointegration test. The relatived indicators and their proxy of determinent factor of agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is looked for. The ECM cointegration regression model isestablished to analyze the factors affecting the level of GL agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian. Moreover, because of such proxy variable as the index of the difference of GDP between Taiwan and FuJian、the total population of Taiwan and FuJian indicating population scale、the mean value of GDP between Taiwan and FuJian indicating mean market size is rejected by The ECM cointegration regression model, in order to analyze their influence on the level of GL agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian, Granger causality test and cointegration test is came to use. At the same time, the annul increments of the factors affecting the level of GL agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian is known as the factors affecting the level of Brulhart marginal intra-industry trade、horizontal intra-industry tradeand vertical intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian, and are analyzed through classical model of multiple regression, the later, in fact, is dynamic analysis of the affecting factors.
Finally, on the basis of above analysis, the conclusion of this dissertation is generalized. According to the conclusion and analysis of this dissertation, combining those with the theory of economic integration, the fields、basis and approaches of (to) Agricultural cooperation is pointed out. At last, the mearsure and countermearsure is put forward to adjust and promote agri-products trade between Taiwan and FuJian, to improve the level of agri-products intra-industry trade between Taiwan and FuJian.
引文
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