摘要
皖北地区是安徽省的一个重要组成部分,它是安徽省重要的粮食产区、能源材料基地,人口众多,区域广阔,其经济的发展影响着安徽省经济发展的速度、和谐社会建设的深度。2008年安徽省委、省政府出台了《关于加快皖北和沿淮部分市县的若干政策建议》,2010年安徽省委、省政府正式出台《关于进一步加快皖北地区发展的若干意见》,2012年还出台了《加快皖北地区发展“十二五”规划》,这一系列动作是安徽省贯彻落实科学发展观、推进区域协调发展的重大战略举措。“十二五”是皖北地区黄金发展期,加快发展的机遇前所未有。从宏观政策看,国家深入实施促进中部地区崛起和建设中原经济区战略,安徽省把加快皖北地区发展放在区域发展总体战略的突出位置,给予特殊政策支持；从产业转移看,经济全球化深入发展,沿海发达地区向内地产业转移趋势明显,皖江示范区带动效应持续增强,南北区域合作不断深化,有利于皖北地区发挥比较优势,积极承接产业转移,全面提升开放型经济发展和开发开放水平；从发展阶段看,皖北地区正处于工业化、城镇化和农业现代化加速推进阶段,持续投入效应不断释放,对外形象逐步提升,比较优势和后发优势日益凸显。
对外向型经济的研究,经济学家从不同角度探讨了外向型经济中外贸、外资等因素对一国经济增长的影响,并在此基础上选取相应指标对经济增长的影响进行了经验和实证分析,外向型经济对经济增长的促进作用得到了论证。目前,国内外学者对皖北地区经济的研究多是在定性分析上,特别对皖北地区外向型经济发展的定量研究还没有。虽然皖北地区是一个内陆区域,外向型经济发展规模总体不高,但其对经济增长的作用是毋庸置疑的。
本文以皖北地区外向型经济发展为主题,采用文献研究法和规范分析法与实证分析法相结合的方法进行研究。首先对外向型经济的基本理论进行阐述；从皖北地区实施外向型经济战略的基础理论出发,结合皖北经济资源优势,介绍皖北地区的国民经济发展概况和外向型经济发展概况。其次通过从安徽省统计年鉴和各市的国民经济与社会发展统计公报查询皖北地区的外向型经济数据：出口额、进口额、实际利用外资额,分别从纵向(时间)与横向(皖北地区和安徽省之间)分析比较皖北地区外向型经济状况,发现皖北地区对外贸易额、实际利用外资额占安徽省总额的比重远远没有达到皖北地区的国内生产总值占安徽省国内生产总值的比重,可以知道皖北地区的外向型经济发展还低于安徽省的发展平均水平；还计算了皖北地区的外向型经济测度指标,分别从纵向(时间)与横向(皖北地区和安徽省之间)来分析与安徽省外向型经济测度指标之间差距。第三,选取国内生产总值作为皖北地区国民经济发展的衡量标准,对皖北地区进出口额、实际利用外资额和皖北地区的国内生产总值,运用ADF法对进行时间序列数列的平稳性检验,进而采用Johansen协整检验方法进行时间序列数列的协整检验,最后建立误差修正模型,并进行格兰杰检验,来验证皖北地区外向型经济对当地经济的作用。第四,在前面的量化分析基础上,采用与定性分析相结合的方法,分析了皖北地区外向型经济发展对当地经济的积极影响与消极影响。最后,根据前面模型得出的结论及影响分析,为更好的发展皖北地区外向型经济从而提高安徽省整体经济水平,从扩大对外贸易规模、扩大招商引资规模、开发人文景观吸引国外游客和积极开展国际合作四个方面提出自己的政策建议。
Northern of Anhui province is one of the most important parts in Anhui province. It is an important grain production area, an energy and material base. It has a large population and vast area, whose development affects the speed of Anhui province economic development and the depth of the construction of a harmonious society. In2008Anhui provincial party committee and provincial government issued "Several policy recommendations to speed up the development of the Northern of Anhui province and cities along the Huai ", and in2010Anhui provincial party committee and provincial government formally issued "Several opinions about further accelerating the development of Northern of Anhui province. Also in2012Anhui provincial party committee and provincial government introduced a""twelfth five-year" plan to speed up the development of Northern of Anhui province ". The series of actions are major strategic initiatives to carry out the scientific development concept and to promote the coordinated regional development."Twelfth five-year" is the golden time of development to Northern of Anhui province, for there are unprecedented opportunities to accelerate the development. From the aspect of macro policies, the country further implement the strategy of promoting the rise of the central region and central plains economic zone construction, and Anhui province take the plan of accelerating the development of northern of Anhui province as the outstanding position in regional development strategy, giving special policy support. From the aspect of industrial relocation, as the in-depth development of economic globalization, the trend of the developed coastal areas transferring their industry to the inland area is obvious, and Wanjiang Demonstration Zone's leading position continues to strengthen, and the north-south regional cooperation continued to deepen. All these will exert northern of Anhui province comparative advantage, to actively undertake industrial transfer, and to comprehensively promote the open economy development and the development level. From the stage of development, Northern of Anhui province is in the stage of the accelerating development of the industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. Their continuing investment effects continuously release, its external image gradually ascends, and its comparative advantage and the advantage backwardness are increasingly highlighted.
On the research of the export-oriented economy, from different angles, economists discuss the factors'effect in the economy growth of one country, such as export-oriented foreign trade, foreign investment. On this basis, they take experience and empirical analysis on the impact of several indicators to economic growth. Export-oriented economy's promoting effect on economic growth has been demonstrated. At present, the domestic and foreign scholars'study of Northern of Anhui economy is more on qualitative analysis, especially there is none of the quantitative study of export-oriented economy development in the Northern of Anhui economy yet. Although the Northern of Anhui Province economy is an inland area, and the overall scale of export-oriented economy development is not large, but its effect on economic growth is indisputable.
This assay takes the export-oriented economic development of the Northern of Anhui Province as the theme, and uses the method of literature study and the method of normative analysis and empirical analysis to make research. Firstly, to elaborate the basic theory of export-oriented economy, on the basis of these basic theories of implementing the strategy of export-oriented economy, combined with the characters of economic resources, to introduce general situation of the development of national economy and export-oriented economy development situation in the Northern of Anhui Province. Secondly, from Anhui statistical yearbook and statistical bulletin of the national economy and social development of municipal query the export-oriented economic data of the Northern of Anhui Province:exports, imports, the actual use of foreign investment. From the vertical (time) and horizontal (Northern of Anhui Province and Anhui Province), this assay makes analysis and comparison of export-oriented economy in the Northern of Anhui Province. I find that the rate of total foreign trade volume and the accounts of the usage of foreign investment in the Northern of Anhui Province to that of Anhui province, couldn't achieve the proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) in the Northern of Anhui Province to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Anhui province. As a result, I can say that the development of export-oriented economic in the Northern of Anhui Province is far lower than the average level in Anhui province. Also I calculate several measure indexes of the export-oriented economy in the Northern of Anhui Province, to analyze and measure the gap between in the Northern of Anhui Province and the Anhui Province respectively from the vertical (time) and horizontal (between northern of Anhui Province and Anhui Province). Thirdly, this assay selects gross domestic product (GDP) to measure the development of national economy of the Northern of Anhui Province. Therefore this assay uses the data of import, export, the actual use of foreign investment and gross domestic product (GDP) to analyze, to use the ADF method for time sequence series to take stationary test, and to use Johansen cointegration test method for sequence of time series to take cointegration test, and finally to establish error correction model, and take Granger Test, to verify that the export-oriented economy will accelerate the local economy of the Northern of Anhui Province. Fourth, on the basis of the foreword quantitative analysis, this assay combines with qualitative analysis method, to analyze the characters of positive impact and negative impact of export-oriented economic development on the local economy in the positive impact and negative impact. Finally, according to the conclusions of the model and the impact analysis, for the better development of export-oriented economy in the Northern of Anhui Province, so as to improve the level of Anhui economy as a whole, this assay puts forward some suggestions, from these aspects of enlarging the scale of foreign trade, expanding the scale of investment and capital introduction,making the development of humanities landscape to attract foreign tourists and actively carrying out international cooperation.
引文
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