摘要
再生资源产业是实现有限资源无限循环的新兴产业，为资源再生利用指出了产业化发展道路，对构建资源节约型、环境友好型社会具有重要战略意义。再生资源产业作为一个新兴产业，系统面临影响因子不确定、系统节点不紧密、调控效果不显著等亟待解决的脆性问题。为减弱再生资源产业系统脆性，需要对系统进行脆性因子识别、脆性程度评价与调控效果检验，构建稳定高效的协同管理机制。本文主要研究内容主要包括以下五个方面。
1.分析再生资源产业系统基本特征。通过文献综述与理论基础研究，对再生资源产业概念进行了界定，使用空间基尼系数、Hoover指数、EG系数等研究方法，从空间、时间、产品链三个维度对产业系统的发展模式、规模演变和结构构成进行深入剖析，并对其发展趋势进行了探讨。
2.辨识再生资源产业系统的脆性因子。从再生资源产业系统内部和外部两方面初步确定脆性因子构成，并结合该产业基本特征修正脆性因子模型，运用面板数据计量经济分析方法，进行平稳性检验、独立影响分析与综合影响分析，找出影响系统脆性的关键性因子。
3.评价再生资源产业系统脆性程度。在系统脆性关联结构分析的基础上，将再生资源产业系统分解为供应、回收、资源化和市场化四个子系统，细分各层次脆性评价指标，结合突变级数法和双枝模糊理论，利用模糊接吻函数、促进-抑制隶属度等方法，构建再生资源产业系统脆性评价模型，得到不同评价准则、不同系统层次的脆性评价结果。
4.构建再生资源产业系统脆性多维临界调控模型。按照多维临界调控目标，应用系统动力学方法，进行动态反馈视角下的因果关系分析，阐述各要素之间的性质和整体框架，建立再生资源产业系统脆性调控模型，检验了模型表达的正确性与有效性，并在不同情景条件下进行模型仿真，探寻降低系统脆性的调控策略。
5.应用再生资源产业系统脆性研究结果。以天津市再生资源产业为实例，阐述产业发展规模、物流运输能力、能源终端消费等现状，测度再生资源产业系统协同发展趋势，并对该产业系统各层次的脆性程度分别进行评价和排序，最后提出了天津市再生资源产业可持续发展的调控措施。
Renewable resources industry is an emerging industry, which could realizemulti-cycle of limited resources, pointing out an industrial development road forreusing resources and showing strategic importance for establishment of theresource-saving and environment-friendly society. As an emerging industry system,there are many brittleness problems in renewable resources industry. The mainproblems are uncertain of the influencing factors, the non-compact system nodes andthe not significant regulatory effect. With the purpose of weaken the brittles of system,brittleness factor identification, brittleness degree evaluation and regulation effectinspection should be implemented to build a stable and efficient collaborativemanagement mechanism. The main contents of this dissertation include the followingfive aspects:
1. The basic characteristics of renewable resources industrial system wereanalyzed. The concept of renewable resources industry had defined throughresearching the literature review and theoretical basis. The developing mode, scaleevolution and framework structure of industrial system were measured from the threedimensions including space, time and industrial chain through Gini coefficient,Hoover coefficient and coefficient of EG. And the industrial development trends werediscussed.
2. Brittleness factors of renewable resource industry system were identified.After determining internal and external brittleness factors, the brittleness factor modelwas corrected with the basic features of the industry. To identify the key factorsaffecting the systems brittle, econometric analysis methods of panel data were exertedon stationary test, the independent impact analysis and integrative impact analysis.
3. The brittleness extent of renewable resources industrial system was evaluated.Based on brittleness associated analysis of system structure, renewable resourcesindustry were broken down into four subsystems including supply, recycling, resourceand marketization subsystems. Then brittleness evaluation indices were subdividedinto four levels. Combined with catastrophe progression method and both-branchfuzzy theory, brittleness evaluation model of renewable resource industry wasestablished. Fuzzy kissing function, promote-inhibition of the membership and other methods were used to achieve brittleness evaluation results under different evaluationcriteria and different system levels.
4. Brittleness multidimensional critical regulation model of renewable resourceindustrial system was constructed. In accordance with the multi-dimensional criticalcontrol objectives, the system dynamics were applied to analyze the causalrelationship from the perspective of dynamic feedback. After describing the characterand overall framework among various elements, brittleness regulation model wasestablished and tested for its correctness and validity. Therefore, the model wassimulated under different conditions, exploring the regulation strategy to reducefragility of system.
5. The brittleness research results of renewable resources industrial system wereutilized. Take Tianjin as an example, the status of renewable resource industry wereexpounded, which include industrial development scale, logistics and transportcapacity, end-consumption of energy. The collaborative development trend wasmeasured. And industrial brittleness extent of all levels were evaluated and sequenced.Finally, measures and suggestions were proposed to enhance sustainable developmentof the renewable resources industry and achieve better outcomes in Tianjin.
引文
[1]Boulding K. B. The economics of the coming spaceship earth [M]. London, EarthScan Publications Ltd,1992.
[2]Guangfu Liu, Xiaolei Liu, Xiaowen Yang. Research on the development strategy ofChina's renewable resource industry based on swot analysis[C]. Piscataway, NJ,USA: International Conference on Management and Service Science,2010,1-5.
[3]张帆.再生资源产业链能否更进一步[J].环境经济杂志,2005,(4):16-18.
[4]宋林飞.发展再生资源产业的世界潮流与对策建议[J].现代经济探讨,2008,(2):5-9.
[5]李敬伟,胡艳华,胡日查.我国可再生资源开发利用的现状、存在的问题及对策建议[J].内蒙古环境科学,2008,20(1):53-56.
[6]武春友,邓华,段宁．产业生态系统稳定性研究述评[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005,15(5):20-25.
[7]Baldwin J.S., Ridway K. Modeling industrial ecosystems and the problem ofevolution [J]. Progress in Industrial Ecology,2004,(1):39-60.
[8]蔡小军,张清娥,王启元.论生态工业园悖论成因及其解决之道[J].科技进步与对策,2007,(3):41-45.
[9]Schmidt C. W. E-junk explosion [J]. Environmental Health Perspectives,2002,110(4):188-194.
[10]Messrs, C.E.M., Hageliiken C. Closed loop WEEE recycling? Challenges andopportunities for a global recycling society[C]. USA: Metals&Materials Society(TMS), Warrendale, PA,2009,1049-1054.
[11]王景伟,施德汉,陈须连.美国电子废弃物资源化产业现状分析[J].上海环境科学,2003,22(12):1034-1038.
[12]Huisman J., Magalini F. Where are WEEE now? Lessons from WEEE: will EPRwork for the US[C]. Orlando, FL, USA: Proceedings of the2007IEEEInternational Symposium on Electronics and the Environment,2007,149-154.
[13]Yamasue E., Nakajima K., Daigo I., et al. Evaluation of the potential amount ofdissipated rare metals from WEEE in Japan[C]. Japan: Aboba Aramaki,2008,87-92.
[14]Panfeng Chen. The WEEE challenge to China [J]. Computer Society,4thInternational Symposium on Environmentally Conscious Design and InverseManufacturing,2005,532-534.
[15]德国电子废弃物回收处理的法律要求及实施情况[EB/OL].http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/newzhly/t20060620_73769.htm,2006-6-21.
[16]荷兰电子废弃物回收处理的法律要求及实施情况[EB/OL].http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/newzhly/t20060631_71421.htm,2006-6-21.
[17]日本电子废弃物回收处理的法律要求及实施情况[EB/OL].http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/newzhly/t20060614_72842.htm,2006-6-21.
[18]郝应征,梁文萍,许宝兴.世界电子垃圾回收处理动态[J].电子工艺技术,2006,27(1):4-7.
[19]Jofre S., Morioka T. Waste management of electric and electronic equipment:comparative analysis of end-of-life strategies[J]. Journal of Material Cycles andWaste Management,2005,7(l):24-32.
[20]Kahhat R., Kim J., Xu M., et al. Exploring e-waste management systems in theUnited States[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling,2008,52(7):955-964.
[21]Chenming K., Esher H. Waste home appliances recycling in some European andAsian countries[C]. The society: Minerals, Metals and Materials Society Meeting,2007:111-120.
[22]张科静,魏珊珊.国外电子废弃物再生资源化运作体系及对我国的启示[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(2):109-115.
[23]Foo K. Y., Hameed B.H. Utilization of biodiesel waste as a renewable resourcefor activated carbon: Application to environmental problems [J]. Renewable andSustainable Energy Reviews,2009,13:2495-2504.
[24]Hepbasli A. A key review on exergetic analysis and assessment of renewableenergy resources for a sustainable future [J]. Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews,2008,12:593-661.
[25]Giuseppe D. V. Natural resources dynamics: exhaustible and renewable resources, andthe rate of technical substitution [J]. Resources Policy,2006,(31):172-182.
[26]Hottenstein, Felix A. MSS optical sorting technologies for automated sorting ofelectronic scrap-Practical case studies from the USA [C]. American: Society ofPlastics Engineers,2008,976-1001.
[27]Grosser Z., Thompson L., Davidowski L. Inorganic analysis for environmental RoHScompliance[C]. American: International Scientific Communication Inc,2007,30-33.
[28]Shishoo, R. The use of renewable resource based materials for technical textilesapplications[C]. UK，Woodhead Publishing Ltd, Cambridge: The Way Forwardfor Sustainable Development in Textiles,2006,109-127.
[29]Islam M. Ro., Islam M. Ra., Beg M. R. Renewable energy resources andtechnologies practice in bangladesh [J].Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews,2008,12:299-343.
[30]Wubin Tu, Lingxian Zhang, Zhongren Zhou, et al. The development of renewableenergy in resource-rich region: A case in China [J]. Renewable and SustainableEnergy Reviews,2011,15:856-860.
[31]Ardehali M. M. Rural energy development in Iran: Non-renewable and renewableresources [J]. Renewable Energy,2006,31:655-662.
[32]Taylor, D. C. Policy incentives to minimize generation of municipal solid waste[J]. Waste Management and Research,2000,18(5):406-419.
[33]Johnson C. Y., Bowker J. M., Cordell, H. K. Ethnic variation in environmentbelief and behavior: an examination of the new ecological paradigm in a socialpsychological context[J]. Enviroment and Behavior,2004,36(2),157-186.
[34]Realff M. J., Raymond M., Ammons J. C. E-waste: An opportunity [J]. MaterialsToday,2004,7(l):40-45.
[35]Sinha K. D., Kraeuchi P., Schwaninger M. A comparison of electronic wasterecycling in Switzerland and in India [J]. Environmental Impact AssessmentReview,2005,25(5):492-504.
[36]Alexis M. T., Mihelcic J. R. Sustainable recycling of municipal solid waste indeveloping countries [J]. Waste Management,2009,29(2):915-923.
[37]Jianxin Yang, Bin Lu, Cheng Xu. WEEE flow and mitigating measures in China[J]. Waste Management,2008,28(9):1589-1597.
[38]Widmer R., Oswald-Krapf H., Sinha-Khetriwal D., et al. Global perspectivesone-waste [J]. Environmental impact Assessment Review,2005,25(5):436-458.
[39]Goggin K., Browne J. Electronic Products recovery-paws, a brite-euram project[J]. Computers in Industry,1998,36(1-2):65-74.
[40]Abduli M. A. Industrial Waste Management in Tehran [J]. EnvironmentInternational,1996,22(3):335-341.
[41]王爱兰.我国再生资源产业发展中的问题及对策探讨[J].上海环境科学,2007,26(6):252-255.
[42]王爱兰.再生资源产业发展的国际经验与我国的对策选择[J].城市环境与城市生态,2006,19(3):37-39.
[43]周宏春.我国再生资源产业发展的思路与对策[J].发展研究,2008,(9):10-13.
[44]李文东.再生资源产业发展中市场机制的缺陷和对策[J].再生资源研究,2007,(3):23-25.
[45]欧阳婉娥.再生资源高值化利用及财税扶持思考[J].海峡科学,2008,(9):16-18.
[46]何其勇.充分发挥协会网络作用，做大做强再生资源行业[J].广东合作经济,2006,43(7):23-25.
[47]冯慧娟,鲁明中.再生资源产业发展的思考[J].环境与可持续发展,2008,(1):50-51.
[48]Shih L. H. Reverse logistics system planning for recycling electrical appliances andcomputers in Taiwan [J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling,2001,32(l):55-72.
[49]王蓉,尹海萍.北京市再生资源产业发展实证研究[J].中国农业大学学报,2009,14(1):77-83.
[50]张菲菲,李慧明.天津滨海新区再生资源产业发展对策[J].再生资源与循环经济,2010,3(1):29-31.
[51]任鸿源,韩颖.京津冀区域再生资源产业竞争力研究[J].城市,2010,(4):54-60.
[52]庄辽,陈德彩.江门市再生资源产业化经营的实践与思考[J].再生资源研究,2007,(5):24-26.
[53]白天.汨罗市再生资源产业的SWOT分析及发展战略[J].管理世界,2010,(4):179-180.
[54]王良健,何琼峰,文嫮.湖南省汨罗市再生资源产业集群升级研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2008,18(2):35-39.
[55]武秩.浅析青海省再生资源产业发展[J].资源与产业,2010,6(12S1):109-112.
[56]梅光军,解科峰,张纪文等.湖北省再生资源回收利用现状的调查研究与相关政策建议[J].再生资源研究,2007,(4):64-67.
[57]李俊.加强广西再生资源回收利用对策研究[J].经济技术协作信息,2008,(11):16-18.
[58]许高峰,李光军,范丽.基于循环经济理论的固体废物治理研究-以河北文安县为例[J].环境科学与技术,2010,33(6E):506-508.
[59]Chua T. E., Garces L. R. Waste management in the coastal areas of the ASEANregion [M]. Batu Maung: The WorldFish Center,1992.
[60]Elkington, J. Cannibais with forks: The triple bottom line of21st century business
[M]. Oxford United Kingdom: Capstone Publishing,2002.
[61]Mayers K.,FranceC.Meetingthe producer responsibility, challenge: the managementof waste electrical and electronic equipment in the UK [J]. GMI25,1999,51-66.
[62]Lindhqvist T., Lifset, R. Can we take the concept of individual producerresponsibility from theory to practice [J]? Journal of industrial ecology,2003,7(2):3-6.
[63]Gottberg A., Morris J., Pollard S., et al. Producer responsibility, wasteminimization and the WEEE directive: Case studies in eco-design from theEuropean lighting sector [J]. Science of the Total Environment,2006,359(l-3):38-56.
[64]Jofre S., Morioka T. Waste management of electric and electronic equipment:comparative analysis end-of-life strategies [J]. Journal of Material Cycles andWaste Management,2005,7(l):24-32.
[65]Lee J. C., Song H. T., Yoo J. M. Present status of the recycling of waste electricaland electronic equipment in Korea[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling,2007,50(4):38-397.
[66]刘冰,梅光军.生产者责任延伸制度在电子废弃物管理中的探讨[J].环境技术,2005,(6):1-4.
[67]黄英娜,张锡辉,郭振仁.生产者延伸责任制及其在我国电子电器行业推行的现实意义[J].生态经济,2005,(10):163-165.
[68]MargaretWalls. The role of economics in extended producer responsibility: Makingpolicy choices and setting policy choices and setting policy goals [EB/OL]. Resourcesfor the Future, Discussion Paper, http://www.rff.org/Documents/RFF-DP-03-11.pdf,2006-03-28.
[69]国家发改委环境和资源综合利用司.部分发达国家和地区废旧家电及电子产品回收处理费用机制[EB/OL]. http://hzs.ndrc.gov.cn/newzhly/t20050912.42088.htm,2006-04-18.
[70]Margaret W., Karen P. Upstream pollution, downstream waste disposal, and thedesign of comprehensive environmental policies [J]. Journal of EnvironmentalEconomics and Management,2001,41:94-108.
[71]Karen P., MargaretW. Extended product responsibility: an economic assessment ofalternative policies [EB/OL]. http://www.rff.org/Documents/RFF-DP-99-12.pdf,1999-1-12.
[72]Molly M., Karen P., Jhih-Shyang S. Dealing with electronic waste: modeling thecosts and environmental benefits of computer monitor disposal [J]. Journal ofEnvironmental Management.2003,68:13-22.
[73]郑红,张振业.发达国家及地区废旧家电多元化回收和集中处理模式[J].家电科技,2006,(6):39-43.
[74]周进.关于废旧家电回收利用法之“付费制度体系”的研究[J].再生资源研究,2004,(5):14-16.
[75]周进.再论建立废旧家电回收处理之“付费制度体系”的科学性[J].再生资源研究,2005,(6):18-21.
[76]郭亚军,赵礼强,李绍江.随机需求下闭环供应链协调的收入费用共享契约研究[J].运筹与管理,2007,16(6):15-20.
[77]费金玲,聂永有.静脉产业中再生资源经营者的收益分析[J].现代管理科学,2008,(2):72-73.
[78]刘凌轩,毕军,袁增伟等.我国废纸回收利用系统的成本收益模型与政策分析[J].系统工程理论与实践,2009,29(5):76-82.
[79]蔡维力,唐绍均.废弃产品回收与循环利用责任的经济分析及对策[J].环境保护,2008,(12):31-33.
[80]张大伟,胡山鹰,沈静珠等.再生资源价值回收率分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(4):165-168.
[81]Liu X. B., Tanaka M., Matsui Y. Electrical and electronic waste management inChina: Progress and the barriers to overcome [J]. Waste management&research,2006,24(J):92-101.
[82]Lonn S. A., Stuart J. A., Losada A. How collection method and e-commerceimpact product arrival rate to electronic return, reuse, and recycling ce nter [J].IEEE International Symposiurn on Electronics and the Environment,2002,228-233.
[83]Kang H. Y., Schoenung J. M. Estimation of future outflows and infrastructureneeded to recycle personal computer systems in California [J]. Journal ofHazardous Materials,2006,137(2):1165-l174.
[84]Kang H. Y., Schoenung J. M. Economic analysis of electronic waste recycling:modeling the cost and revenue of a materials recovery facility in California [J].Environmental science&technology,2006,40(5):1672-1680.
[85]Hainault T., Smith D. S., Cauchi D. J., et al. Minnesota’s multi-stakeholderapproach to managing electronic products at end-of-life[J]. Proceedings of the2000IEEE Internationals Symposium on Electronics and the Environment,2000,310-317.
[86]Peralta G. L., Fontanos P. M. E-waste issues and measures in the Philippines [J].Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management,2006,8(1):34-39.
[87]Jain A., Sareen R. E-waste assessment methodology and validation in India [J].Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management,2006,8(l):40-45.
[88]Jianxin Yang， Bin Lu， Cheng Xu. WEEE flow and mitigating measures inChina [J]. Waste Management,2008,28:1589-1597.
[89]Herzlinger R. The Challenges of Going Green [M]. US: Harvard Business Review,1994.
[90]刘小丽,杨建新,王如松.中国主要电子废物产生量估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2005,15(5):113-117.
[91]李劲,王华.电子产品废弃量预测及优化处置量[J].中北大学学报(自然科学版),2011,32(6):780-785.
[92]Krumwiede D. W., Chwen S. A model for reverse logistics entry by third-partyproviders [J]. Omega,2002,30:325-333.
[93]Spicer A. J., Johnson M. R. Third-Party remanufacturing as a solution forextended product responsibility [J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2004,(12):37-45.
[94]Ravi V., Shankar R., Tiwari M. K. Analyzing alternatives in reverse logistics forend-of-life computers: ANP and balanced scorecard approach [J]. Computers&Industrial Engineering,2005,48:327-356.
[95]范江华.逆向物流运作模式研究[J].物流科技,2004,(7):10-13.
[96]魏洁,李军. EPR下的逆向物流回收模式选择研究[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(6):18-22.
[97]裴杰夫.上海久信物流发展旧电子产品逆向物流的分析研究[D].上海:上海海事大学,2007,1.
[98]Nagel C., Meyer P. Caught between ecology and economy: end-of-life aspects ofenvironmentally conscious manufacturing[J]. Computers&industrial engineering,1999,36:781-792.
[99]Der Horng L., Meng D. A heuristic approach to logistics network design forend-of-lease computer products recovery [N]. Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2007-2-12.
[100]Krikke H. R., Harten V. A., Schuur P. C. Business case roteb: recovery strategiesfor monitors [J]. Computers&Industrial Engineering,1999,36(4):739-757.
[101]Krikke H. R., Harten V. A., Schuur P. C. Business case: reverse logistic networkredesign for copiers [J]. OR Spektrum,1999,21(3):381-409.
[102]Mina K., Koa H. J., Kob C. S. A genetic algorithm approach to developing themulti-echelon reverse logistics network for product returns [J]. InternationalJournal of Management Science,2006,34:56-69.
[103]Anna N., Toyasaki F. Reverse supply chain management and electronic wasterecycling: a multi-tiered network equilibrium framework for e-cycling [J].Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review,2005,41:1-28.
[104]Schultmann F., Zumkeller M., Rentz O. Modeling reverse logistic tasks withinclosed-loop supply chains: An example from the automotive industry [J].European Journal of Operational Research,2006,171:1033-1050.
[105]Streicher P. M., Widmer R., Jain A. Key drivers of the e-waste recycling system:assessing and modeling e-waste processing in the informal sector in Delhi [J].Environmental impact assessment review,2005,25:472-491.
[106]王海燕.我国逆向物流发展研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2007,11.
[107]喻朝阳.可再生资源的一个寡头博弈模型及其均衡分析[J].西昌学院学报(自然科学版),2010,24(2):30-34.
[108]Global Development Research Center. Life Cycle Analysis and Development
[EB/OL]. http://www.gdrc.org/uem/lca/life-cycle.html,2009-10-21.
[109]钟麦英,黄小原.可再生资源开发与投资的H∞控制策略研究[J].系统工程学报,2000,15(1):80-85.
[110]金鸿章,李琦,吴红梅.基于脆性因子的复杂系统脆性分析[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2005,26(6):739-743
[111]吴红梅,金鸿章,林德明等.复杂系统脆性理论的风险分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(10):2019-2022.
[112]韦琦,金鸿章,郭健.基于脆性的复杂系统研究[J].系统工程学报,2004,19(3):326-328.
[113]韦琦.复杂系统脆性理论及其在危机分析中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2005,1.
[114]Qi Wei, Hongzhang Jin, Jian Guo. Study on complex system based on thebrittleness[C]. Proceedings of2003IEEE International Conference on Systems,Man and Cybernetics, Washington, USA,2003,3056-3061.
[115]Deming Lin, Hongzhang Jin, Qi Li. The brittleness model of complex systembased on cellular automata [J]. Journal of Marine Science and Application,2004,3(2):69-72.
[116]金鸿章,郭健,韦琦.基于尖点突变模型对复杂系统脆性问题的研究[J].舰船电子工程,2004,24(2):1-3,8.
[117]金鸿章,郭健,韦琦等.基于滑动t检验法的非典型性肺炎疫情的脆性分析[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2003,24(6):640645.
[118]Hongzhang Jin, Limei Yan, Panxiang Rong, et al. Brittleness analysis of electricnetwork[C]. In Proceedings of the4th International Conference on EngineeringApplications and Computational Algorithms, Guelph, Ontario, Canada,2005:32-36.
[119]林德明.适应性Agent图及其在复杂系统脆性分析中的应用[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2007.
[120]林德明,金鸿章,韦琦.基于元胞自动机的复杂系统脆性仿真[J].系统工程学报,2005,20(2):167-176
[121]吴红梅,金鸿章.基于熵理论复杂系统的脆性[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2009,40(s1):347-351.
[122]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.复杂系统的脆性模型及分析方法[J].系统工程,2005,23(1):9-12.
[123]Kellman M., Shachmurove Y., Saadawi T. Import vulnerability of defense-relatedindustries:An empirical model[J]. Journal of Policy Modeling,1996,18(1):87-107.
[124]Soutter, Musy, Andre. Global sensitivity analyses of three pesticide leachingmodels using a Monte-Carlo approach [J]. Journal of Environmental Quality,1999,28(4):1290-1297.
[125]Füssel H. M. Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework forclimate change research [J]. Global Environmental Change.2007,17:155-167.
[126]薛萍,武俊峰,金鸿章等.通信系统脆性的数学模型及分析方法[J].系统工程学报,2008,23(6):759-763.
[127]闫丽梅,徐建军,许爱华等.基于临界自组织理论的电力系统脆性分析[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2006,34(12):231-234.
[128]张江,应俊,王琼等.基于FAHP的电力变压器系统的脆性分析[J].自动化技术与应用,2004,23(7):9-12.
[129]张玮,朱金福,覃义.基于蚁群算法的多式联运系统脆性因子决策分析[J].企业经济,2010,(2):35-37.
[130]钟波,谢挺.供应链系统的脆性模型研究[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(10):443-446.
[131]Larry D., David G. Informal social support networks and household vulnerability:Empirical findings from Georgia [J]. World Development,1998,26(10):1827-1838.
[132]李颖.煤矿事故系统脆性模型的建立与仿真[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2007,2.
[133]张志霞,陆秋琴,邵必林.矿井通风安全系统的脆性关联分析[J].金属矿山,2006,(6):68-71.
[134]Evan D.G. F., Warren M., Olav S. Mutual vulnerability, mutual dependence:The reflexive relation between human society and the environme nt [J]. GlobalEnvironmental Change,2003,13:137-144.
[135]Paul M., Thomas D. Structure, agency and environment: Toward an integratedperspective on vulnerability [J]. Global Environmental Change,2008,18:99-111.
[136]Edwards Jones G., Plassmann K., York E.H., et al. Vulnerability of exportingnations to the development of a carbon label in the United Kingdom [J].Environmental science&policy,2009,12:479-490.
[137]Sergio O., Saldan Z. Stakeholder’s views in reducing rural vulnerability tonatural disasters in Southern Mexico: Hazard exposure and coping and adaptivecapacity[J]. Global Environmental Change,2008,18:583-597.
[138]Eakin H. Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases fromCentral Mexico [J]. World Development,2005,33(11):1923-1938.
[139]Tommy F., Indra M., SurbaktiB., et al. Potentialclimate-change related vulnerabilities inJakarta:Challenges and current status [J]. Habitat International,2011,35:372-378.
[140]Suzanne B., Barry S., Ben B. Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability:Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada [J]. GlobalEnvironmental Change,2006,16:364-378.
[141]YiMing Wei, Ying Fan, Cong Lu, et al. The assessment of vulnerability tonatural disasters in China by using the DEA method [J]. Environmental ImpactAssessment Review,2004,24:427-439.
[142]Michele C. Vulnerability and Chronic Poverty in Rural Sichuan [J]. WorldDevelopment,2003,31(3):611-628.
[143]Varis O., Kummu M., Salmivaara A. Ten major rivers in monsoon Asia-Pacific:Anassessment of vulnerability [J]. Applied Geography,2011,32:441-454.
[144]David M. N., JoséJ. G., Gilberto G. Syndromes of sustainability of developmentfor assessing the vulnerability of coupled human-environmental systems: Thecase of hydrometeorological disasters in Central America and the Caribbean [J].Global Environmental Change,2007,17:207-217.
[145]Amy M., Darrin M., Aaron T. W. Hydropower and sustainability: Resilience andvulnerability in China's powersheds [J]. Journal of Environmental Management,2009,90:286-293.
[146]韩传峰,陈建业,孙庆荣等.黄河中下游灾害系统的脆性源控制[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(6):135-140.
[147]Adrianto L., Matsuda Y. Developing economic vulnerability indices ofenvironmental disasters in small island regions[J]. Environmental ImpactAssessment Review,2002,22:393-414.
[148]Subhes C., Bhattacharyya. Fossil-fuel dependence and vulnerability of electricitygeneration: Case of selected European countries [J]. Energy Policy,2009,37(6):2411-2420.
[149]éloi L. Issues in environmental justice within the European Union [J].Ecological Economics,2011,70:1846-1853.
[150]Thanawat N., Subhes C. Bhattacharyya. High gas dependence for powergeneration in Thailand: The vulnerability analysis [J]. Energy Policy,2007,35:3335-3346.
[151]李东序.城市综合承载力理论与实证研究[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2008,12.
[152]唐敏.基于熵的矿业可持续发展问题分析-以云南铜业为例[D].昆明:昆明理工大学,2007,10.
[153]孙平军.矿业城市经济发展脆弱性及其发展策略研究[D].吉林:东北师范大学,2010,6.
[154]Nicola G., Jean-Michel S., Josef S., et al. Economic valuation of thevulnerability of world agriculture confronted with pollinator decline [J].Ecological Economics,2009,68:810-821.
[155]Christopher B. Confronting the coffee crisis: can fair trade, organic, andspecialty coffees reduce small-scale farmer vulnerability in northernnicaragua[J]? World Development,2005,33(3):497-511.
[156]刘金霞.农业风险管理理论方法及其应用研究[D].天津:天津大学,2004,12.
[157]杨年芳,严奉宪.基于复杂系统的柑橘产业链脆弱性研究[J]．浙江农业学报,2011,23(1):164-169．
[158]Eshita G. Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries[J]. Energy Policy,2008,36:1195-1211.
[159]Wong Y.H., Ricky Y.K., Chan, et al. Is customer loyalty vulnerability-based?An empirical study of a Chinese capital-intensive manufacturing industry[J].Industrial Marketing Management,2009,38:83-93.
[160]J orn-Henrik T., Daniel H. An empirical analysis of supply chain riskmanagement in the German automotive industry[J]. Int. J. ProductionEconomics,2011,131:242-249.
[161]Carlo C., Ian S. Perceptions of personal vulnerability to workplace hazards in theAustralian construction industry[J]. Journal ofSafety Research,2011,42:253-258.
[162]Paul B., Richard O. Assurance of security in maritime supply chains: Conceptua lissues of vulnerability and crisis management[J]. Journal of InternationalManagement,2005,11:519-540.
[163] yvind B., Bj rn E. A., James B. Rice FormalVulnerabilityAssessment ofa maritimetransportation system[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2011,96:696-705.
[164]David A. C., WenliW. Neutralizing the piracy of motion pictures: reengineering theindustry’s supplychain[J].Technology inSociety,2004,26:567-583.
[165]Padma D. Macroeconomic fragility and exchange rate vulnerability: a cautionaryrecord of transition economies[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,1998,26:621-641.
[166]Katia R., Ajax M. The role of domestic fundamentals on the economicvulnerability of emerging markets[J]. Emerging Markets Review,2010,11:173-182.
[167]Ashoka M., Mark P. T. Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia[J]. Journalof International Money and Finance,2007,26:1292-1310.
[168]Pierluigi M. Trade openness and developing countrie’s vulnerability: concepts,misconceptions, and directions for research. World Development,2011,39(9):1489-1502.
[169]武占云.2007-2009国际金融危机传染的时空机制研究[D].上海:华东师范大学,2010,4.
[170]严太华,艾向军.基于复杂系统脆性理论的金融体系脆弱性结构模型的建立[D].重庆广播电视大学学报,2007,19(2):36-37.
[171]伍志文.中国金融脆弱性分析[J].经济科学,2002,(3):5-14.
[172]李正辉.金融系统脆弱性理论研究[J].统计信息与论坛,2006,(3):39-45.
[173]Ou T., Musa N. S. Identifying risk issues and research advancements in supplychain risk management[J]. Int. J. Production Economics,2011,133:25-34.
[174]Stephan M. W., Christoph B. An empirical investigation into supply chainvulnerability[J]. Journal of Purchasing&Supply Management,2006,12:301-312.
[175]Stephan M.W., Nikrouz N.. Assessing the vulnerability of supply chains usinggraph theory[J]. Int. J. Production Economics,2010,126:121-129.
[176]Peter T., Kevin M.. Supply chain risk in turbulent environments-A conceptualmodel for managing supply chain network risk[J]. Int. J. Production Economics,2009,119:247-258.
[177]David B., Marija B.. Measuring the supply chain risk and vulnerability infrequency space[J]. Int. J. Production Economics,2007,108:291-301.
[178]Adegoke O., Mohan G.. Managing disruptions in supply chains: A case study ofa retail supply chain[J]. Int. J. Production Economics,2009,118:168-174.
[179]易海燕.供应链风险的管理与控制研究[D].四川:西南交通大学,2007,9.
[180]杨东升.基于自组织理论的复杂供应链系统脆性研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010,6.
[181]Knemeyer M. A., Zinn W., Eroglu C. Proactive planning for catastrophic eventsin supply chains[J]. Journal of Operations Management,2009,27:141-153.
[182]田耕.基于智慧与创新资本视角的企业危机管理系统脆性研究[J].统计与决策,2011,(2):176-178.
[183]杜军,冯志军.企业自主创新支持系统脆性结构模型的构建研究基于系统失效的危机视角[J].科技进步与对策,2010,27(12):90-93.
[184]张东风.基于复杂性理论的企业集群成长与创新系统研究[D].天津:天津大学,2005,11.
[185]李金兵.资源熵视角企业复杂系统可持续发展研究[D].江苏:南京理工大学,2009,7.
[186]马丽娜.基于复杂系统脆性理论的企业集团性建模及应用研究[D].山东:中国海洋大学,2010,4.
[187]齐晔,蔡琴.可持续发展理论三项进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(4):110-116.
[188]牛文元.可持续发展理论的基本认知[J].地理科学进展,2008,27(3):1-6.
[189]李斌.基于可持续发展的我国环境经济政策研究.山东:中国海洋大学,2007,6.
[190]Gutes, Maite C. The Concept of Weak Sustain-ability [J]. Ecological Economics,1996,17(2):147-56.
[191]刘鸿明,邓久根.可持续发展理论研究的两种范式述评[J].经济纵横,2010,(4):122-125.
[192]马丽娜.基于复杂系统脆性理论的企业集团脆性建模及应用研究[D].山东:中国海洋大学,2010,5.
[193]李学功.中国煤矿重大瓦斯事故致因复杂性机理及其管控研究[D].江苏:中国矿业大学,2010.5
[194]闰丽梅,金鸿章,付光杰等.复杂系统崩溃机理初探[J].大庆石油学院学报,2004,28(5):68-70.
[195]荣盘祥,王继尧,金鸿章.复杂系统的脆性与系统演化分析[J].电机与控制学报,2004,8(2):142-144.
[196]郭健.基于突变理论的复杂系统的脆性研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2002,12.
[197]荣盘祥.复杂系统脆性及其理论框架的研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2006,3.
[198]闫丽梅,金鸿章,荣盘祥等.系统脆性及其脆性源[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2006,27(2):223-226,237.
[199]荣盘祥,金鸿章,韦琦.基于元胞自动机的复杂系统脆性的研究[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2006,27(2):227-231.
[200]李悦.20世纪中国工业经济学的研究概述[J].经济理论与经济管理,2006,(4):73-74.
[201]唐晓华,王广凤,马小平.基于生态效益的生态产业链形成研究[J].中国工业经济,2007,(11):121-127.
[202]唐晓华.产业经济学教程[M].北京:经济管理出版社,2007.
[203]简新华.简评中国经济学领域的几个争论[J].中国经济问题,2008,(1):75-79
[204]李孟刚,蒋志敏.产业经济学理论发展综述[J].中国流通经济,2009,(4):30-32.
[205]干春晖,郑若谷.改革开放以来产业结构演进与生产率增长研究--对中国1978-2007年“结构红利假说”的检验[J].中国工业经济,2009,(2):55-65.
[206]余典范,干春晖.适宜技市、制度与产业绩效--基于中国制造业的实证检验[J].中国工业经济,2009,(10):47-57.
[207]张少军,刘志彪.我国分权治理下产业升级与区域协调发展研究--地方政府的激励不相容与选择偏好的模型分析[J].财经研究,2010,36(12):83-93.
[208]杨公仆,夏大慰.现代产业经济学（第二版）[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2005.
[209]葛红玲,熊晶.产业组织理论与资本结构理论融合研究综述[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2012,27(1):95-101.
[210]孟令彤.西方产业组织理论追踪[J].山东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2011,27(3):10-12.
[211]郝奇,赵军.中国产业结构理论发展综述[J].社科纵横,2012,(2):38-43.
[212]马光等.环境与可持续发展导论[M].北京:科学出版社,2005.
[213]洪谦益.报废汽车拆解与再制造:“城市矿产”的新亮点[J].中国科技投资,2010,(12):41-43.
[214]Thierry M. C., Salomon M., Van N. J., et al. Strategic issues in product recoverymanagement[J]. California Management Review,1995,37(2):114-1351.
[215]肖远才.再生资源回收交易市场亟待规范[J].中国资源综合利用,2004,(3):38-39.
[216]吴解生.对“再生资源”几种定义的简略评析[J].中国资源综合利用，2002,(10):15-18.
[217]吴解生.再生资源产业的涵义、构成、特征及其与环境产业的区别[J].再生资源研究,2005,(5):3-6.
[218]朱海伦.对再生资源概念的理论思考[J].再生资源研究,2005,(3):1-4.
[219]郭庭政,段宁,武春友.我国资源再生产业集群辨识研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(2):139-143.
[220]周宏春.变废为宝:中国资源再生产业与政策研究[M].北京：科学出版社,2008.
[221]李慧明,朱红伟,廖卓玲.论循环经济与产业生态系统之构建[J].现代财经,2005,25(4):8-11.
[222]邓楠.中国的可持续发展与绿色经济--2011中国可持续发展论坛主旨报告[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):1-3.
[223]何跃,王莉.我国低碳经济发展效率分析[J].统计与决策,2012,(4):157-160.
[224]沙景华,马惠新,严丽娟.内蒙古乌拉特后旗新兴矿业城市循环经济发展模式研究[J].2011,21(3):143-146.
[225]植田和弘著.废弃物のサィクル[M].日本:有斐阁出版社,1992.
[226]細田衛士.静脈物流に関する基礎的分析－東アジアへの展開を視野において－[J].三田学会雑誌,2006,99(2):47-65.
[227]Tang Yan, Li Jian. Material flow analysis on venous industrial park-taking TianjinZiya Circular Economy Park for example [J]. The17th International Conferenceon Industrial Engineering and Engineering management,2010,10:1828-1831.
[228]王亚丹.国内废弃物物流的理论研究综述[J].物流科技,2012,(2):67-69.
[229]Naushad K., Huan F., Eric S.. A purview of waste management evolution:Special emphasis on USA [J]. Waste Management,2008,(6):1-12.
[230]杨敬增.日本再生资源综合利用技术简介[J].再生资源与循环经济,2011,40(4):42-44.
[231]沈镭.再生资源的产业化发展[J].中国资源综合利用通讯，2001,9:12.
[232]范连颖.日本循环经济的特点及发展现状[J].现代日本经济，2006,145(1):50-54.
[233]张弢,闫逢柱.中国装备制造业地理集聚：测度与绩效评价[J].中国科技论坛,2009,(12):32-37.
[234]徐剑,张云里.废旧电子产品回收网络研究[J].物流科技,2005,(3):56-59.
[235]Gladstone D. L. Tourism urbanization in the United States [J]. Urban AffairsReview,1998,34(1):3-25.
[236]冯慧娟,张继承.再生资源回收市场组织运作现状的分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,(3):262-264.
[237]杨洪焦,孙林岩,吴安波.中国制造业聚集度的变动趋势及其影响因素研究[J].中国工业经济,2008,(4):64-72.
[238]林朝阳.基于产品生命周期理论的新产品渠道策略选择[J].大众科技,2006,(1):38-42.
[239]金素,申钢强.高科技产品市场生命周期特征与影响因素分析[J].江苏科技信息,2005,(3):42-44.
[240]Henderson J. V. Marshall’s scale economics [J]. Journal of Urban Economics,2003,53:1-28.
[241]Van B. P., Van den B. J. Modeling and analysis of international recyclingbetween developed and developing countries [J]. Resource, Conservation andRecycling,2006,46:1-46.
[242]Canas A., Ferr o P., Coneic o P. A new environmental Kuznets curve?Relationship between direct material input and income per capita: evidencefrom industrial countries [J]. Ecological Economics,2003,46:217-229.
[243]李君华,彭玉兰.中国制造业空间分布影响因素的实证研究[J].南方经济,2010,(7):28-40.
[244]Levin A., Lin C. F., Chu C. Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic andFinite-Sample Lewis, Properties[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2002,108:1-24.
[245]Breitung, Jorg. The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data, in B.Baltagi(ed)[J]. Advances in Econometrics: Nonstationary Panels, PanelCointrgration, and Dynamic Panels,2000,15:161-178.
[246]Hardi, Kaddour. Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data [J].Econometric Journal,2000,(3):148-161.
[247]Im K. S., Pesaran M. H. S. Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels [J].Journal of Econometrics,2003,115:53-74.
[248]Maddala G. S., Shaowen W. A comparative study of unit root tests with paneldata and a new simple test [J]. Oxford Bulletin of Econometrics and Statistics,1999,61:631-652.
[249]Fisher R.A. Statistical Methods for Research Workers [M]. Edinburgh: Oliver&Boyd,1970,6.
[250]李琦,金鸿章,林德明.复杂系统的脆性模型结构[J].系统工程，2005(1):1-4.
[251]解佳龙,胡树华,蒋园园.基于突变级数法的国家高新区竞争力空间分异研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2011,32(12):101-108.
[252]李政;刘韬.基于突变级数法的企业技术创新能力评价模型[J].华东经济管理,2010,24(12):154-156.
[253]Zadeh L. A. Fuzzy sets [J]. Inf Control,1965,(8):338-353.
[254]SHI K. Both-branch fuzzy sets S(I)[J]. Journal of Shan Dong University ofTechnology,1998,28(2):144-149.
[255]SHI K. Both-branch fuzzy sets S(II)[J]. Journal of Shan Dong University ofTechnology,1998,28(3):206-211.
[256]张春英,尹守峰,刘保相.双枝模糊层次分析与分析模型[J].山东大学学报(工学版),2005,35(l):119-124.
[257]刘保相,张春英.基于SPA的双枝模糊决策分析[J].模糊系统与数学,2006,20(4):74-78.
[258]黄光球,任大勇.基于双枝模糊决策与模糊Petri网的攻击模型[J].计算机应用,2007,27(11):2689-2693.
[259]周宏安,李炳杰.基于相对隶属度的模糊信息的多目标决策法[J].陕西工学院学报,2004,20(4):77-80.
[260]金巾,包亦望,万德田等.基于突变理论与模糊集的玻璃幕墙安全可靠性评价[J].建筑科学,2010,26(9):54-61.
[261]Franz W. Thresholds in concave renewable resource models [J]. EcologicalEconomics,2004,48:259-267.
[262]中华人民共和国商务部天津特派员办事处.关于天津市再生资源回收行业发展情况的调研报告[EB/OL]. http://tjtb.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/zhuantdy/as/201202/20120207980098.html,2012-2-23.
[263]Elíasson L., Turnovsky S. J. Renewable Resources in an Endogenously GrowingEconomy: Balanced Growth and Transitional Dynamics [J]. Journal ofEnvironmental Economics and Management,2004,48:1018-1049.
[264]武春友,刘岩,王恩旭.基于哈肯模型的城市再生资源系统演化机制研究[J].中国软科学,2009,(11):154-159,178.
[265]武春友,刘岩.城市再生资源利益相关者满意度评价模型及实证[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(3):116-123.
[266]Giurco D., Bossilkov A., Patterson J., et al. Developing industrial water reusesynergies in Port Melbourne: cost effectiveness, barriers and opportunities [J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2011,19:867-876.
[267]Beers D., Biswas W. K. A regional synergy approach to energy recovery: Thecase of the Kwinana industrial area, Western Australia [J]. Energy Conversionand Management,2008,49:3051-3062.
[268]Varga M., Kuehr R. Integrative approaches towards Zero Emissions regionalplanning: synergies of concepts [J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2007,15:1373-1381.
[269]Chen S. Y., Liu Y. L., Chen C. F. Evaluation of Land-Use Efficiency Based onRegional Scale-A Case Study in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province [J]. Journal ofChina University of Mining&Technology,2007,17(2):215-219.
[270]李德一,张树文.黑龙江省水资源与社会经济发展协调度评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(4):8-12.
[271]Qiufeng. Li, Yaoguo Dang, Wuyong Qian. Study on measurement of level ofeconomic--environmental system’s coordination development in Yixing city [J].Energy Procedia,2011,(5):1937-1943.
[272]刘传明,张义贵,刘杰等.城市综合交通可达性演变及其与经济发展协调度分析[J].经济地理,2011,31(12):2028-2033.
[273]沈玉芳,刘曙华,张婧等.长三角地区产业群、城市群和港口群协同发展研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(5):778-783.
[274]郭庭政,段宁,武春友.我国资源再生产业集群辨识研究[J].中国人口资源与环境,2010,20(2):139-143.
[275]Haken H. Synergetics[J]. Physica B+C,1984,127(1-3):26-36.
[276]宋超山,马俊杰等.城市化与资源环境系统耦合研究-以西安市为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(5):85-90.
[277]刘耀彬,李仁东等.城市化与生态环境协调标准及其评价模型研究[J].中国软科学,2005,(5):140-148.
[278]邱菀华.管理决策与应用熵学[M].北京:装备工业出版社,2001.
[279]章穗,张梅等.基于熵权法的科学技术评价模型及其实证研究[J].管理学报,2010,7(1):34-42.
[280]李国柱,李从欣.基于熵值法的经济增长与环境关系研究[J].统计与决策,2010,24:107-109.
[281]Illingworth V. The penguin directionary of physics [M]. Beijing: ForeignLanguage Press,1996.
[282]宋学锋,刘耀彬.城市化与生态环境的耦合度模型及其应用[J].资源与环境,2005,23(5):31-33.
[283]Sterr T., Ott T. The industrial region as a promising unit for eco-industrialdevelopment-reflections, practical experience and establishment of innovativeinstruments to support industrial ecology [J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2004,(12):947-965.
[284]李健,唐燕.基于物联网的逆向物流企业竞争情报系统研究[J].情报杂志,2011,30(10):151-155.