摘要
并购可以使企业在最短的时间内实现扩大经营规模、扩张市场份额、提高知名度,随着经济和资本市场的发展,越来越多的公司把并购作为实现企业做大做强的战略途径。西方百年并购史告诉我们,并购活动已从企业经营行为上升到影响整个国民经济乃至全球经济格局的活动。
频繁并购,又称为“连续并购”,是指企业在短时间内发起多次并购活动的行为,频繁并购现象普遍存在于全世界的资本市场中。西方学者对频繁并购的研究逐渐增多,近两年来有学者从企业决策层入手研究这个问题,一些学者认为频繁并购企业决策层中明显存在着过度自信倾向,也有些学者研究发现频繁并购企业决策层的行为符合学习效应。西方学者提出的过度自信假说和学习效应是否适用于新兴资本市场上的频繁并购公司的决策层有待研究。
自中国股市开市以来,越来越多的A股上市公司把并购作为扩大规模,占领市场,以致实现行业整合的战略手段。随着我国资本市场的发展与成熟,我国A股市场中的频繁并购公司不断涌现,作为一个新兴市场,频繁并购现象无疑对公司决策、证券监管部门的监管以及投资者的策略提出了新的挑战。因此以我国资本市场上的频繁并购公司作为样本研究这个问题无疑具有重大的理论和现实指导意义。
本研究的目的是从研究频繁并购公司在并购事件前后数年的长期经营绩效入手,研究频繁并购公司决策层的行为。即在理论分析的基础上,利用我国A股市场上的频繁并购公司为样本实证研究公司决策层中是否存在过度自信假说和学习效应。
本文首先对频繁并购上市公司决策层的行为进行了理论分析,设计了两个研究假设,一是频繁并购公司决策层中存在着学习效应,一是频繁并购公司决策层具有过度自信倾向。然后选定了2002至2008年我国A股上市公司中在四年内发起三次并购活动的公司作为研究样本,同时设置一个参照样本,由在同一研究期间只参与过一次并购活动的上市公司组成。在衡量公司长期经营业绩时本研究摒弃了以往的财务指标法,采用更为全面的平衡计分卡。为了使平衡计分卡适用于本研究,笔者参考前人的研究,将平衡计分卡原始的四个维度改成财务指标、经营协同、管理协同、财务协同四个维度,设置十二个代理指标。在实证分析时使用了多远统计分析中的主成分因子分析法,构建了综合得分模型。最后本文对实证的结果进行了详尽的分析,通过对频繁并购前后长期经营绩效综合得分进行横向和纵向的对比,验证前文提出的两个研究假设。
本文研究发现频繁并购公司在频繁并购结束后第一年业绩大幅下滑,在并购结束第二年随有好转但与频繁并购开始前一年相比仍有较大差距；另外,在频繁并购类公司发起首次并购的前一年,频繁并购公司的业绩综合得分明显高于参照样本公司,综合以上两点,本文认为频繁并购公司决策层具有过度自信倾向。同时,本文的研究结果表明,核心样本中频繁并购公司在频繁并购结束当年以及其后一年业绩显著恶化,因此我们可以认为频繁并购公司决策层并没有从历次并购中学习到经验和教训,即学习效应假说不成立。
依据研究结论,本文最后就如何减少上市公司参与次级并购、降低频繁并购公司决策层的过度自信倾向分别给上市公司、投资者、并购监管层提出了相应的政策建议。
Mergers and acquisitions can realize the scale expansion, enlarge the market share and raise public awareness in a shortest time. Along with the development of economy and society, more and more enterprises take mergers as the strategic way to make their company bigger and stronger. The hundred years history of western mergers makes us believe that merger has become an activity which can influence the national and international economy and no longer an enterprising operations.
The frequent merger and acquisition, defined as the operation that a company conducts mergers frequently in a short time, it occurs widely in the capital market around the world. And it also aroused the notice and research by western scholars. In the last two years, the scholars decide to start their research from the company decision makers. Some of them think that the decision makers of the frequent merger and acquisition company have an over-self-confident tendency, and some other scholars found that the operations of the decision makers are in accordance with the learning effect. For the emergence and fast growing of the frequent merge and acquisition in the A-share market along with the development of our capital market, the research of the frequent merger and acquisition in our capital market undoubtedly has the realistic and theoretical significance.
In this essay, my research start from the long-term operating performance of the frequent mergers and acquisitions company and behaviors of companies'decision-making. Taking the frequent mergers and acquisitions companies'of China's A-share market as sample, on the basis of theoretical analysis, if there is overconfidence hypothesis and learning effect in the empirical research companies'decision-making.
This essay make a theoretical analysis towards frequent mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in the decision-making behavior, I designed two hypotheses, Firstly, the existence of learning effects in frequent mergers and acquisitions companies'decision-making,. Secondly, the existence of overconfidence tendency in frequent mergers and acquisitions companies' decision-making. And then I selected the frequent mergers and acquisitions companies'of China's A-share market of2002-2008as a research sample, meanwhile, I set up a reference sample. This essay adopt a more comprehensive Balanced Scorecard to measure the companies' performance
Instead of financial indicators method. In order to make the Balanced Scorecard applies to this study, I improved the original four dimensions of the Balanced Scorecard by referring the previous studies. I used the multivariate statistical analysis of principal component factor in the empirical analysis, and built a composite score model k. Finally, I gave a detailed analysis to the empirical results for testing the above two hypotheses
This study found that in the first year the frequent mergers and acquisitions company drop sharply in performance after the end of frequent mergers and acquisitions. In addition, in the previous year when the frequent mergers and acquisitions companies launched for merging and acquiring for the first time, the company's performance is significantly higher than that in the reference sample company. From the above two points, this paper considers that the decision-makers of the frequent mergers and acquisitions companies'have an overconfidence tendency. At the same time, the study found no clear support for the evidence of learning effects in the decision-making.
Based on the findings, this essay made some policy recommendations respectively to the listed companies, investors and M&A regulators at the end of this article.
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