摘要
中国的人均产出目前进入了中等收入国家水平,在国际上,拉美和南亚部分国家曾一度落入了“中等收入陷阱”,在此背景下,国内也出现了普遍的担心,认为中国有可能落入这样的陷阱之中。另外,随着剩余劳动力转移基本完成,劳动力成本上升,外需下降,中国经济正在进入新的阶段,经济增长需要由要素积累转移到质量改进上来。中国的结构性失衡也使经济的持续稳定增长面临很大困难。本文的目的正是要探讨国外的经验对于中国在中等收入阶段实现持续增长的借鉴意义和启示,分析中国在新的阶段制约可持续增长的因素,以及保持持续增长需要实现的政策转变。
本文总结了发展中国家经济增长的特征化事实。通过对文献的回顾和分析,梳理了对中等收入陷阱的已有解释,总结了以往对中等收入国家经济问题的认识。通过回顾讨论中国可持续增长问题的文献,我们发现,不同于拉美和南亚诸国,制约中国持续增长的特殊因素包括几种结构性失衡,以及几种重要的阶段性变化。
本文分析了中国在今后阶段经济增长所面临的几个方面的挑战,包括：(1)劳动力供给增长放缓,工资成本上升；(2)对国外市场的依赖,对外部技术的依赖；(3)城市化过程中福利成本的增加,以及人口年龄结构变化导致的养老负担加重,两者叠加会导致社会支出压力迅速增大；(4)以高投资、高储蓄和低消费为特征的结构性失衡。
木文从三个方面分析了缓解这些压力,实现可持续增长的途径。一是提高自主技术创新能力,二是通过渐进式的城市化,缓解福利开支上升的压力。三是,逐渐转变原有的赶超战略,推进平衡增长。
我们通过一个简单的数理模型,证实了随着人均产出和技术水平逐渐接近国际前沿,技术模仿的策略将导致产出增长趋缓。缩小和发达国家人均产出的差距,关键取决于技术研发和人力资本积累。利用跨国的面板数据所做的计量检验证实了以上结沦。这进一步支持了,我国今后需要从技术模仿和引进转向依靠自主研发。
作为对拉美陷阱研究的一个补充,本文论证了,拉美地区普遍的农村大土地所有制,造成了超前的城市化,再加上盛行的民粹主义,一方面,政府盲地实行福利赶超,另一方面是大规模的城市失业人口,造成财政负担加重,企业的税负加重。而城市人口有较高的保留工资,这些都不利于工业部门的扩张和就业创造。高失业、缓慢的就业创造以及福利负担加重形成了恶性循环,是导致拉美陷入停滞的重要原因。本文通过一个简单的动态优化模型,揭示了上述内在机制。相比之下,东亚在战后通过普遍的土地改革,广泛实行小农经济,尤其是在中国,小农的福利保障作用降低了进城务工农民的保留工资,为工业化和就业创造提供了条件。我们也用较多的文献证据来证实,小农经济在除美国以外的绝大多数西方发达国家普遍存在。这以意味着中国应渐进式地推进城市化,保持合理速度,以应对工资上涨压力和养老负担加重。中国未来城市化应该以增强城市的拉力为重,即就业创造和扩大福利保障覆盖范围,而不是通过土地私有化增加“推力”。
山于东亚的日韩和我国台湾是少数几个达到中等收入水平之后成功地进入高收入阶段的国家,对它们的经验加以分析对于中国有重要的借鉴意义。我们重点分析了它们的赶超战略,发现政府干顶和赋予企业垄断特权的“租金分配”模式在三个地区都较为普遍,是推动技术进步的重要手段。但是这种政策仅在经济赶超阶段适用。在经济摆脱了低水平发展之后,产业政策实施依赖的前提——政府具有良好的识别能力,掌握了对高成长产业的充分信息——不再具备。产业政策容易被俘获,最终陷入了保护落后企业的境地。我们通过中国汽车行业产业政策的实例证实了这一点。这对于中国当前跨越“中等收入陷阱”有一定的教训和借鉴作用,产业政策需要转向竞争性政策。此外,我们还论证了,韩国实现超常规增长,得益于美国的援助和市场开房这一有利的外部环境,以此解释超常规增长是特定条件的产物。这对中国的借鉴意义是,未来需要走一条渐进的而不是倚重赶超的发展道路。
最后,本文讨论了政府间竞争下的增长赶超。揭示了中国长期以来实行的赶超战略旧的增长方式得以延续的主要原囚,也造成了许多扭曲,赶超是内在于中国分权体制当中的。在以投资为主的地区间竞赛中,资本深化和对重工业的偏好是经济结构恶化的突出表现。其主要的不利影响是造成投资率上升,劳动份额下降。我们通过实证检验,发现同一省份内部的各地级市之间的竞争压力,使欠发达的地级市倾向于通过扩大重工业投资来实现赶超,而这种赶超主要是由地区的财政压力驱动的。在此基础上,本文探讨了如何通过相应的体制改革和政策调整来消除地区间竞争的负面作用。
Most of the Latin American countries and some of the South Asian countries had fallen into the so called "middle income trap" in the twenty years after1980. As China's per capita GDP entered the range of upper middle income in2010, it is widely concerned that whether China can avoid from falling into the "trap", a state of economic stagnation or slow growth. In addition, some phenomenon show that economic growth in China is entering a new stage, such as the fundamentally finished process of transfer "surplus lobar force" out of the rural areas; the falling of outside demand. The rapid growth up to now has accumulated many structure problems, which will impact the sustained growth potentially. The aim of this paper is to illustrate what lessons can we learn form other countries for China to keep sustained growth, what factors will make China's growth to slowdown, and what transition is needed for China in the new stage.
This paper established some "style facts" about the growth of the developing countries. By surveying and analyzing of literature, the explanation of the phenomenon of the "middle income trap" is examined, and the debate about expectation of China's growth in the future is also analyzed. It is found that two most important factors that prevent economy from growing sustainably are the weak ability of technological creation in domestic and structural imbalance.
In this study, some challenges to economic growth in future and their impacts are analyzed. These challenges are decline of the growth of labor force supply and increasing labor cost, dependence on the foreign technology, expanding public passion expenditure led by urbanization and aging of population and the imbalance of high investment rate, high saving rate and low consumption rate.
To solve these challenges, we can make efforts in following three aspects: improving the ability of technological creation, avoiding sharp increase of penssion expenditure by adopting an urbanization process of gradual character, shifting to policy promoting balanced growth from the undergoing strategy of catching up.
Using a simple model, it is illustrated that as the technology of a less developed country approaching to the world frontier of that, one's technological improvement will slowdown for the declining effect of learning will. To narrow the gap between a less developed country and the developed one, the former need to increase input on research and development of technology. This conclusion is supported by regressions based on cross-national data.
As a supplement to the study on Latin American economic growth, it is proved that the centralized land ownership in this area led to enormously rapid urbanization, which caused a large number of unemployment in urban area and expansion of unregulated sector, and also the sharp increase of pension expenditure, leading to heavy burden of tax on firms. As a result, the heavy burden of tax on firms prevents the industrial sector to increase employment. So, in this process, the centralized land usage and rapid urbanization impeded economics growth, especially the process of industrialization, and this mechanism is an important cause of the stagnation of Latin American economies. A simple dynamic model is built in this paper to illustrate the mechanism. On the contrary to Latin America, the East Asian economies had commonly implemented reform on land ownership and the centralized land ownership had been destroyed after the World War Two. Especially in China, thanks to the decentralized land ownership and family fanning which provided the function of pension, labor's wages was kept on a much low level in the last30years, one of the most important factors promoted China's economic growth. It is also found that small family farms are widely exist in the world. Theoretically, small family farming has high efficiency for its advantage in incentive and supervising mechanism. All these means that China should adopt a process of urbanization with gradual character so as to avoid rapid expansion of social pension expenditure. We should promote urbanization by increasing social pension in urban areas rather than by enforce farm land centralizing. In other words, we should increase the "force to pull" rather than the "force to push".
Japan, South Korean and Chinese Taiwan are the three economies reached the high income level in much short time after they entered the middle income stage. To take some lessons from them,I analyzed their experiences of catching up, especially the function industrial policy. It is found that all industrial policies in these economies have a character of "rent creation", providing rent to particular sector or firms by giving them the monopoly opportunities in certain fields. Although this kind of policy promoted industry upgrade, it is effective in the certain stage of catching up or taking off. I argued that such policies are more and more unadoptable for their heavier negative effects. China should adopt policies to promote balanced growth, for instance, the competition-enforce policies.
Finally, this paper analyzed the causes why the catching up strategy have been utilized for so many years, which impeded the adjustment to balanced growth. It is found that one obvious structure imbalance, low labor income share, can be explained by the rapid increase of heavy industry in the manufacture sector and capital deepening, these phenomenons are closely related to the competition among local governments. The most important reason is that capital intensive sector can bring more tax income for local governments. This paper also provides some empirical evidences by econometric regressions. Based on these explanations, the policy implicit is also illustrated.
引文
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