摘要
城市建筑物震害预测日益受到地震工程界的重视,对有关理论方法和技术进行研究具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。针对目前传统震害预测方法所需收集的城市建筑物资料过多、过细、耗费巨大的人力财力物力的现状,本文对建筑物震害预测方法做了进一步研究,主要做了以下方面的工作:
1、建立了建筑物的震害矩阵,考虑了建筑物的建设年代、结构类型和场地条件,给出了城市建筑物震害预测的简化方法,并给出了算例;
2、利用近年来做过城市抗震防灾规划的城市建筑物震害预测结果,研究了城市建筑物震害指数与经济损失、人员伤亡和无家可归人数的对应关系,统计回归出了相应得计算公式,并给出了算例;
3、将前述方法应用于某城市建筑物震害预测中,给出了城市各社区建筑物的震害指数、及各街道办的建筑物直接经济损失、人员伤亡和无家可归人数,并与传统方法预测结果作了比较,结果表明该方法是可行的、合理的。
The studies on disaster prediction and retrofit for urban buildings have been attracted great attentiong and being as the bases of urban planning for earthquake resistance and disaster prevention, obvious development are attained. In order to make the results of disaster prediction more rational, urban planning of earthquake resistance and disaster prevention more effective, the researches on theory and methods for disaster prediction and correlative other topics are very meaningful. Under these backgrounds, the following aspects about seismic disaster prediction of urban buildings are mainly studied:
1, The comprehensive seismic damage index is proposed, in which the influence of several factors, such as design standard, construction time, structure type and site category are considered. Base on the proposed seismic damage matrix, the simplified damage prediction method for urban buildings are given and the examples illustrated.
2, The statistical relationships among seismic damage index and economic losses, seismic casualty, homeless people are studied. The datas in this study are gained from the cities where the prediction of earthquake disasters have been done. These relationships are used to establish formula for estimate seismic casualty and economic losses and practical some application are discussed.
3, The proposed methods are used to the Seismic disaster mitigation planning of a certain city. Seismic damage index of the building structures and community are evaluated, and the economic losses, seismic casualties and homeless people caused by earthquake in future are calculated. The Comparation and analysis between these results and that from traditional methods indicate the feasibility and rationality of the methods put forwarded in this paper.
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