摘要
农村饮水安全问题直接关系到社会的稳定和可持续发展,发展农村供水、实施农村饮水安全项目,是建设社会主义新农村、构建和谐社会的迫切要求。农村供水工程发展迅速,为使工程沿着科学轨道发展,确保工程可持续性运行,发挥工程最大效益,迫切需要引入科技含量较高的决策手段和管理手段,建立适合农村供水工程特点的科学评价指标体系,深入研究工程建设与管理中的相关技术问题,优化决策方案,促进农村供水工程建设管理规范化、科学化。而国内外对农村供水工程的相关问题缺乏深入、全面的研究。因此,本论文针对目前农村供水工程建设与管理中的关键技术问题,坚持可持续发展的思路,以评价为主线,以优化为手段,以价格为杠杆,以提高项目决策水平和管理水平、全面提升农村供水科技水平为目标,在总结、筛选国内外已有相关研究成果的基础上寻求新的突破。论文主要研究内容和研究成果如下：
(1)农村供水工程评价指标体系的研究与构建
分别对农村供水工程立项评价和工程后评价展开研究,采用Delphi-AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process)-FCE (Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation)法优化组合,根据层次分析AHP法构造指标框架,采用Delphi法结合协调性检验等优选指标,从项目准备、总体方案、技术方案、工程管理、投资和经济与效益评价6个方面构建了二层结构的立项评价指标体系,从项目准备、项目实施、运行管理和效益与可持续评价4个方面构建了三层结构的农村供水工程后评价指标体系；以Delphi法各指标重要程度结果为依据构造判断矩阵,采用优化的AHP法合理确定了工程立项评价和后评价指标权重,根据评价指标的性质构建了多层次模糊综合评价FCE模型并结合不同类型工程后评价进行了实例应用分析。整个评价指标体系科学严谨,使用方便。评价结果符合实际情况,具有较大的应用价值,可以为农村供水工程的规范化管理提供科学依据,促进评价工作的顺利开展。
(2)农村供水工程最优规模的研究
从规模效益优化的角度,基于已建工程实际数据,考虑人口密度差异,建立了投资、效益、成本与建设规模的定量关系模型,以农村供水工程净效益年度等值最大为目标建立了最优规模非线性规划模型。结合工程实例应用求解可知,工程最优规模效益还与水价的合理制定密切相关,当水价过低时,工程难以维持正常运行,只有水价处于一个合理的区间,才具有规模效益。最优规模的分析,可以为新建和扩建工程供水规模的合理确定,供水区域的合理划分,新老供水设施的优化衔接,工程效益的充分发挥以及农村供水工程的可持续性发展提供参考依据。
(3)农村供水管网优化设计
管网优化设计对农村供水工程投资影响较大,针对农村供水管网的特点,对管材优选、水泵优选及管径优化设计进行研究,构建管材优选评价指标体系,采用改进标度法进行指标权重确定,建立了管材模糊综合评价模型；针对常用供水水泵,建立了水泵优选评价指标及模糊综合评价模型；采用界限流量法-改进遗传算法组合优化设计树状管网。该优化设计模型以最小动态年费用为目标函数,流速、压力及管径可靠性为约束条件,以界限流量法优化初始种群,以管径优选结果优化适应度函数,减少了迭代次数,提高了计算效率,确保了全局最优解。农村供水管网优化设计的研究为管材和水泵的合理选择,管径的优化设计提供了研究思路与科学依据。
(4)农村供水工程水价研究
论文在比较国内外水价的构成、制定方法与计价方式基础上,重点综合经济承受能力和心理承受能力对农民饮水水价承受能力进行了定量分析,结合需求函数ELES (Extended Linear Expenditure System)模型对不同地区消费结构的分析,提出了不同地区经济承受能力的划分依据；采用条件价值估计CVM (Contingent Valuation Method)法通过支付卡问卷与二分法引导技术优化结合,建立了心理承受能力的Logistic回归模型。由该模型可知,心理承受能力受到经济承受能力、年龄和卫生习惯等因素的影响,不同经济承受能力的农民支付意愿不同,经济承受能力越高,支付意愿越强,同时承受能力具有空间异质性,不同地区差异较大。基于公平性、补偿成本、合理收益及水资源有效利用和可持续发展的农村供水水价制定原则,明确了农村供水合理的水价构成,提出了基于供需双方利益均衡的阶梯式三级水价模型及分级制定策略和制定建议,对农村供水水价的合理制定具有重要的参考价值。
(5)农村供水工程评价相关技术集成系统开发
基于农村供水工程评价及相关技术的研究成果,以VFP关系型数据库管理系统为开发平台,结合VEP、VB等多种可视化编程技术,采用面向对象的开发方式,开发研制农村供水工程评价相关技术集成系统。系统采用模块化结构,功能丰富。主要模块有工程信息模块、工程评价模块和管网优化设计、管材和水泵优选及规模和水价计算分析等工程评价相关技术模块,可实现工程信息管理、工程评价、辅助设计和优化研究等功能。系统的开发为工程建设提供了简单实用的科学工具,可以规范评价过程,提高工作效率,优化设计,提高工程决策管理水平和信息化水平,具有较大的应用价值。
Safety of drinking water in rural areas is directly related to the social stability and the sustainable development of our society. It is an urgent requirement for building a new socialist countryside and a harmonious society to develop rural water supply and carry out rural drinking water safety projects. With the rapid development of rural water supply projects, in order to make the project develop along the science track, ensure the sustainable operation of the project, and maximize project's efficiency, high scientific and technological decision means and management skills are urgently needed to be introduced to establish a scientific evaluation index system which is suitable for rural water supply project, to dig into the related technical matters in the project constructing and management, to optimize decision-making scheme and to promote a standard and scientific management in the construction of rural water supply project. As the lack of the deep and thorough investigation on this related matters of rural water supply, on the key technical problems of the construction of the current rural water supply, based on summing up and filtering related research outputs both at home and aboard, this thesis aims to seek a new breakthrough by maintaining sustainable development train of thought, using evaluation as the main line, optimization as a means, price as a lever and looking improving decision and management level, comprehensively improving science and technique level of rural water supply as the aim. The paper's main content and research results are as follows:
(1) Research and structuring of evaluation index system of the rural water supply projects
This paper carries out the research focus on both the project evaluation and the post-evaluation of rural water supply projects. It adopts the way of Delphi-AHP-FCE to optimize, which uses AHP method to structure evaluation indicator frame, combining with optimizing targets, such as, coordination inspection, uses the method of Delphi to structure a two-layer architecture project evaluation index system in terms of project preparation, overall plan, technique proposal, engineering management, investment and economic and benefit evaluation and structures a three-layer architecture project evaluation index system in terms of project preparation, project implementation, operation management and efficiency and sustainable evaluation. This research structures judgment matrix based on the result of the importance of any indicator. This research structures multilevel blurry comprehensive evaluation model based on the characteristics of evaluation system and it carries out application example analysis combining with post-evaluation of different projects. The whole evaluation index system is scientific, rigorous, and convenient to use. The evaluation result correspond with the actual situation, has great value and can provide scientific basis for the scientific and standardized management for the rural water supply projects to promote the evaluation work smoothly proceeding.
(2) Research on optimized scale of the rural water supply projects
In the perspective of scale benefit, on account of the practical data of constructed projects, the difference of population density, it established a quantitative relation model of investment, benefit, cost and the scale of construction. It established an optimal scale nonlinear programming model on the purpose of seeking the annual maximum equivalent of the net benefit of the rural water supply projects. Combining with solving of the engineering application examples, it finds that engineering optimal scale benefit is also related to reasonable water price. It's difficult to maintain normal operation when the water price is too low and it can have the scale benefit only when the water price is in a reasonable range. The analysis of optimal scale can provide a reference for the reasonable affirmation for the building of new projects or extending the existing projects, the reasonable partition of the water supply regions, the optimizing cohesion between the old and the new water supply facilities, the project playing full role and the sustainable development of rural water supply.
(3) Optimal design of rural water supply network
Optimal design for network has a great impact on the investment of the rural water supply projects. On the characteristics of the rural water supply network, this paper does the research on selecting optimal pipes, selecting optimal pumps and the optimal design of pipe diameter to build an evaluation index system of selecting optimal pipes and pumps. It uses improvement scale method to determine the index proportion to establish a dim and comprehensive evaluation model for pipes. It establishes an optimal evaluation index for pumps and a dim comprehensive evaluation model. It uses boundaries flow method and improves the integrated genetic algorithm to optimally design tree network. This optimal design model uses minimum dynamic annual cost as target function, take flow rate, pressure and the reliability of the pipe diameter as the constraint condition, uses boundaries flow method to optimize the initial population and uses the result of optimal selection of pipe diameter to optimize fitness function to reduce the iteration number, to improve computation efficiency and to ensure a global optimal solution. The research on the optimal design of rural water supply network provides a research guideline and scientific basis for the reasonable choice of pipes and pumps, and the optimal design of pipe diameter.
(4) The study on the water price of the rural water supply projects
Based on comparing the water price composition, formulating methods and valuation methods both at home and abroad, composing with the key comprehensive economic bear ability and the psychology bearing capacity, the paper optimizes the numerical investigation on the peasants'endurance on the water price. Combining with the analysis about the consumption structure in different districts by using demand function model of Extended Linear Expenditure System, the paper raises the basis for partition for different bearing capacity of different districts. According to Contingent Valuation Method and the optimized combination of questionnaire on the payment card and dichotomy guidance technology, this paper establishes the logistic regression model of farmers'psychology bearing capacity. From this model, we know that psychology bearing capacity is affected by many actors, such as, payment capacity, age, health habits, and so on. Different farmers with different payment capacity have different willingness to pay, and they have stronger desire to pay if they have higher payment capacity. At the same time, endurance has the special heterogeneity with great difference in different regions. The rural water supply pricing principle based on the fairness, compensation cost, reasonable benefit and the effective use of water resource and sustainable development makes the price structure of the rural water supply more reasonable, which also proposes a3-level ladder water pricing model, based on the interests of both sides, this paper also proposes a reasonable pricing structure, which has an important reference value on scientifically and reasonably formulating the price of the rural water supply.
(5) Systemic development for the related techniques of the evaluation of rural water supply projects
Based on the research achievement of the evaluation of the rural water supply projects and the related techniques, using VFP relational database management system as a development platform, combining with Visual Basic and other visual programming techniques, and the object-oriented development way, this paper develops related integrated system of the evaluation of the rural water supply projects.The system uses a modular structure, which has many functions. Main modules contain engineering information modules, evaluation modules and optimal design of pipe networks, optimal selection of pipes and pumps and water price calculation and analysis, all of them are related to the technique module of the evaluation of projects, which can realize managing engineering information, engineering evaluation, aided design, optimization study and other functions.The development of the system provides the a simple but practical tool for engineering construction, which can standardize the evaluation process, improve work efficiency, optimize design and enhance the decision-making and management level and the level of informationalization. So it has greater application value.
引文
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