摘要
近20年来,全球信用卡产业一直呈现出高速发展的态势,而随着我国经济的快速发展,信用卡在我国经济发展与社会生活中也必将扮演越来越重要的角色；加之信用卡产品利润高,并具有维护高端客户的战略意义,信用卡已经成为银行越来越重要的利润增长点。另一方面,随着外商独资银行、中外合资银行纷纷进驻包括信用卡市场在内的人民币银行卡市场,我国境内信用卡市场的竞争将更为激烈。但是,目前我国信用卡产业的整体竞争实力还比较弱小,各方面指标与发达国家相比还存在巨大差距,因此,如何从理论上认识信用卡产品,并提出完善我国信用卡产业的政策建议,对于我国信用卡产业的健康发展以及整个金融业的有序运行具有重要意义。
本文从经济学角度对信用卡产业进行了理论分析,对我国信用卡产业发展过程中存在的问题进行了初步探讨,并对发达国家的信用卡产业发展经验及历次重大金融危机进行了系统总结,在此基础上提出了完善我国信用卡产业的政策建议,以期为相关部门提供决策参考。
本文按照“提出问题——分析问题——解决问题”的思路安排为以下三部分：
第一部分提出问题,对应于第一章,主要是对信用卡的整体情况进行介绍,对信用卡产业的形成和发展过程进行回顾,并归纳出我国当前信用卡产业发展中所存在的三大问题,即：信用卡支付定价的合理性受到质疑,各利益主体间难以协调；信用卡信贷消费增长缓慢,“睡眠卡”比例居高不下；信用卡发行恶性竞争的负面作用日益凸显。
第二部分分析问题,包括第二章、第三章和第四章,运用经济学理论来对上述三大问题逐一进行分析。
首先,本文从银行与商户间的利益冲突、消费者和商户间的博弈两方面对上述第一大问题进行了分析。在介绍信用卡产业的参与主体、运作机制以及双边市场特征的基础上,本文构建并求解了一个简单的两方博弈模型,论证了银行向商户征收交换费的必要性。鉴于目前关于最优交换费的研究大多是从商户角度出发,而忽视了消费者行为以及双边市场特征对交换费制定的影响,因而本文尝试建立了一个包含消费者网络效用的分析框架,构建并求解了一个社会福利函数,发现当把消费者的网络效用引入交换费的确定过程中之后,社会福利的最大化不仅取决于交换费水平本身的高低,更取决于交换费在消费者和商户之间的分配比例,从而提出在解决各经济主体问的利益冲突时更应关注交换费的分配比例而非交换费本身的水平。进而,本文将发卡行、收单行、银行卡组织等视为一个整体的银行系统,计算了该系统的利润额并施加利润非负的条件后,发现商户扣率居高不下、银行和商户间利益冲突不断的原因并不在于交换费不合理,而在于银行运作成本过高以及所收取的卡费过低,而这又根源于我国不合理的银行卡结构、欠发达的受理环境以及信用卡市场上的恶性竞争。
为分析消费者和商户之间的利益博弈,本文将现有的静态博弈模型动态化,提出了一个简单的多方动态博弈模型,考察了在持卡消费的便利性持续提高、搜寻成本持续降低的条件下消费者和商户的行为,并结合2009年3月发布的国内第一个信用卡服务指数,指出了提高持卡消费便利性的可能途径,具体包括：重新选取更为有效的信息传播渠道,全面、充分地对信用卡的各项功能、尤其是透支功能进行宣传；大力增加信用卡附加服务的种类和质量,切实满足客户的多样化需求；着力打造高端信用卡服务的特色,提升高端服务的质量；继续开通自动还款、网银转账、电话银行转账等多项便民服务,解决信用卡还款难的问题。
其次,本文从信用卡消费对经济增长的重要性、影响信用卡消费的因素等角度对上述第二大问题进行了分析。在介绍信用卡贷款的理论基础及自身特点的基础上,本文根据宏观经济学的总需求分析模式,研究了信用卡消费与经济增长的辩证关系,论证了信贷消费对于经济增长的重要性。进而,本文基于“预防性储蓄理论”等消费者行为理论加入了一些在现有研究中被遗漏的变量,采用2005年第四季度的银行卡业务基本数据,对影响我国信用卡透支消费额的因素进行了回归分析,发现信用卡消费额与居民收入、自动取款机数量显著正相关,而与预期支出数额(以人民币存款余额来衡量)显著负相关。同时,本文还通过计算VIF值的方式检测出上述回归的自变量之间存在高度相关性,并在剔除了“签约商户的POS机数量”之后重新进行了回归,得出了与原有回归一致的结论,从而保证了回归结果的稳健性。基于此,本文指出,我国缓慢增长的农民收入、持续扩大的收入差距、较高的预期支出数量、较低的ATM机普及率以及银行不当的营销策略等,都直接降低了信用卡的消费额和透支额,导致“睡眠卡”大量增加。
再次,本文从信用卡对货币供求、央行铸币税、货币政策、监管漏洞等角度对上述第三大问题进行了分析。对货币供给的分析结果表明,信用卡的使用将减少流通中的现金、法定存款准备金、超额存款准备金等基础货币的数量,增大货币乘数,从而将导致货币供给的增加。对货币需求的分析结果表明,信用卡的广泛使用将大大降低货币在不同用途之间进行转换的交易成本,使得各类货币需求动机之间的界限变得模糊,并将加快货币的平均流通速度,使得货币需求的变化幅度减小、浮动期限变短。此外,信用卡的使用还将减少中央银行的铸币税收入,削弱再贴现政策、法定准备金政策、公开市场操作等货币政策工具的效力,增大金融系统的流动性风险和信誉风险。进而,本文分析了信用卡套现的机制、后果和根源,结果表明：非法套现问题的根本症结在于法律法规的缺位和我国正规融资渠道的缺乏,因此,必须加快相关法律法规的建设,加大对非法套现人员的惩治力度,规范POS机的发放和管理；同时,大力发展我国的金融业,采取各种措施努力解决个体经营户和中小企业融资难的问题,从源头上杜绝非法套现的产生。
第三部分解决问题,包括第五章、第六章和第七章：
首先,本文对代表性国家的信用卡产业发展历程进行了比较研究,从中总结出对我国信用卡产业发展的有益经验。作为信用卡的发源地,美国信用卡产业的发展主要依靠市场力量来推动,其特点是银行卡组织发挥了极其重要的作用、产业分工的专业化以及政府部门为产业发展和风险防范提供了完善的法律环境。日本作为仅次于美国的世界第二大信用卡国家,政府最初对信用卡市场实行较为严格的管制,直到20世纪90年代为了解决银行业的坏账问题才采取了包括放松信用卡市场管制在内的多种措施,日本信用卡产业开始迅速发展。由于较高的通讯成本,日本信用卡产业的欺诈率比较高,同时由于对零售商并购的严格限制和本土存在较多相对封闭的清算组织,日本信用卡产业的规模经济不明显。在韩国,虽然政府的行政干预和优惠政策促进了本国信用卡产业的发展,但在相应法律环境建设方面有所欠缺,加上韩国信用卡公司在超常规扩张的过程中忽视了风险控制,最终导致其信用卡产业的发展出现了重大挫折。阿根廷、巴西等南美国家的信用卡产业对外资过度开放,导致其本国信用卡市场完全成为国际银行卡组织和外资银行全球市场的附庸和组成部分,而泰国、马来西亚等东南亚国家在平衡对外开放与保护民族信用卡产业发展方面的经验值得借鉴。
其次,本文对金融危机进行了分析和总结。由于金融危机在很大程度上是一种信用危机,因而历次金融危机的经验教训对于发展我国的信用卡产业也有着很大的借鉴意义。本文回顾了拉美债务危机、亚洲金融危机和美国次贷危机的发展过程,分析了各自的爆发原因。鉴于美国次贷危机的特殊性,本文单独分析了次贷危机对美国和我国信用卡产业的影响,发现美国当前因次贷危机所引发的信用卡危机有可能是致命的,而我国信用卡产业所受到的负面影响仍然在可控的范围之内,但仍有必要从中吸取教训。从历次金融危机中总结出的经验包括：从产业指导方针的角度来看,必须从根本上正确认识实体经济和虚拟经济的关系,把握好信用经济发展的“度”；从发卡机构的角度来看,必须建立健全风险管理制度,加强对信用卡客户的审核力度,适度进行业务创新,并建立健全风险预警系统；从政府的角度来看,必须建立起完善的产业监管制度,尽快制定和完善相应的法律法规和监管措施,多方面规范发卡银行的营销活动,通过法律手段杜绝信用卡市场的违规行为,促进信用卡产业的健康发展。
最后,本文提出了完善我国信用卡产业的政策建议,即：从产业宏观整体的角度来看,应加强政府的立法监督和扶植力度,提供完善的法律环境,制定必要的政策优惠；加大对信用卡市场的引导,形成有序竞争、合作发展的经营氛围；引导构建和完善社会征信体系,加强信用卡产业风险防范能力,扩大信用卡产业规模,实现规模效应；加大科技力量推动信用卡产品创新,适当引进外资,促进民族信用卡产业的健康发展。从微观主体的具体发展策略来看,应引导发卡银行理性营销,建立主动服务意识,强化风险控制；加强民族银行卡组织的建设,充分发挥专业化服务机构的作用；改善我国信用卡受理环境,使商户在便利快捷的支付系统中获利；引导个人消费观念的转变,强化个人信用理念。
Over the past 20 years, the global credit card industry has been showing a rapid growth trend. With the development of China's economy, the credit card industry will also play an increasingly important role in the country's economic and social life. Besides, with its high profit industry and strategic role in maintaining high-value customers, the credit card industry has become a more and more important profit-creating business. On the other hand, more and more foreign and joint banks are entering Chinese credit card market and other bank card markets, which has made the domestic credit market more competitive. However, at present the overall competitive strength of Chinese credit card industry is still weak, with all of its indicators far behind those of the developed countries. Therefore, to understand credit card products theoretically and propose proper policy suggestions is of great significance to the healthy development of Chinese credit card industry and the ordered operation of Chinese financial industry.
This paper then gives a theoretical analysis of the credit card industry from the economic perspective, provides a preliminary discussion of the problems in Chinese credit card industry, and systematically summarizes the experiences of the credit card industry in some developed countries and the lessons from the major financial crises in human history, based on which some suggestions are proposed for the reference of concerned agencies.
In accordance with the logic of "propose problems--analyze problems--solve problems", this paper is divided into the the following three parts:
Part I proposes problems, corresponding to the Chapter One. It gives an introduction of the credit card industry, provides an overview of its development and then summarizes the three major problems currently existing in Chinese credit card industry. That is:(1) the rationality of the pricing for credit card service is being challenged, with the concerned interest groups hard to reconcile; (2) the amount of overdraft of credit card has been increasing slowly, with a high proportion of "sleeping card"; (3) the credit cards begin to impose negative monetary effects, with more and more serious cashing out with credit cards.
PartⅡanalyzes problems, corresponding to Chapter Two, Three and Four, which provide analyses of the above three problems respectively.
Firstly, this paper analyzes the above first problem from the perspectives of the interest conflicts between banks and merchants and the game between customers and merchants. Based on the introduction of the inter players, the mechanism and the "two-sided market" characteristic of credit card industry, this paper builds and solves a simple two parts game model, which justifies the necessity of interchange fees. Since most of the existing related researches focus on merchants instead of customers, this paper builds an analyzing framework which includes the network utility of customers. After constructing and solving a social welfare function, this paper finds that, after the introduction of customers'network utility into the determination of interchange fee, the maximum social welfare depends not only on the level of interchange fee, but also on the distribution of such a fee between customers and merchants. Based on this result, this paper proposes that we should pay more attention to the distribution of interchange fee than to the level of such a fee when trying to solve the conflict between inter players in credit card industry. Then, this paper treats the issuing bank, the acquiring bank and the bank card organization as a whole bank system and calculates the profit of this system. After imposing the non-negative condition of this profit, this paper finds that high merchants'discount rate isn't due to the unfair interchange fee, but to the over high costs of banks and over low card fees, which root from the inefficient structure of Chinese bank cards, the less developed card environment and the vicious competition existing in the credit card market.
To analyze the game between customers and merchants, this paper make the existing static game model dynamic and then proposes a multi-party dynamic game model to examine the behaviors of customers and merchants under the conditions of ever increasing facility of consuming with cards and the ever decreasing of the searching cost. Based on the above analysis and the first Chinese credit card service index issued in March 2009, this paper points out the possible methods to raise the facility of consuming with credit cards, which include:re-choose more effective communicating channels to completely and thoroughly introduce all the functions (especially the overdraft function) of credit cards; substantially add the kinds and greatly enhance the quality of supplementary services such that the diversified demands of customers are satisfied; shape the characteristics of high-level credit card service and enhance the quality of high service; continue to open automatic paying back, online transferring, phone banks'transferring and other services to make the paying back of credit card easier.
Secondly, this paper analyzes the above second problem from the perspectives of the significance of credit card consumption on economic growth, the contributing factors of credit card consumption, and so on. After introducing the theoretical bases and the characteristics of credit card consumption, this paper studies the relationship between credit card consumption and economic growth based on the aggregate demand analysis model, which justifies the importance of credit card consumption on economic growth. Next, based on "precautionary saving theory" and some other theories on consumer behaviors, this paper adds some variables which have been ignored in previous researches to the regression model. Using the basic data on the bank card businesses in the four quarter of 2005, this paper regresses the amount of credit card consumption, which is then found to be significantly positively correlated to income and amounts of ATM, while significantly negatively correlated to the expected expenses (measured by the RMB deposit balances). Besides, this paper calculates the VIF values of the above regression, and finds its independent variables to be highly correlated. A second regression without the variable of "the amount of cooperating merchants" is thus conducted and consistent results are obtained, which indicates that the regression results in the first regression are robust. Based on these, this paper further points out that the slowly increasing incomes of farmers, the ever widening income gaps, the high expected expenses, the low ATM coverage and the improper promoting strategies all directly reduce the consumption amount and overdraft amount, which then results in the huge increase of "sleeping cards".
Thirdly, this paper analyzes the above third problem from the perspectives of money supply and demand, the seigniorage revenues of central banks, the monetary policies, the regulation holes, and so on. The analysis of money supply shows that the use of credit cards will reduce the amounts of base money including currency, required deposit reserves and extra deposit reserves, and raise the money supplier, which combine to result in the increase of money supply. The analysis of money demand shows that the wide use of credit cards will greatly reduce the transaction costs of transforming money among its various uses, diffuse the differences between various money demands, and accelerate the circulation of money, which smooths the fluctuations of money demand and shortens the floating durations. Besides, the use of credit cards will also reduce the seigniorage revenues of central banks, weaken the effects of monetary policy tools and raise the liquidity risk and credit risk in financial system. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the mechanisms, effects and causes of cashing with credit cards, and finds that the fundamental causes for the problem of illegal cashing lie in the absence of related laws and regulations, and the scanty formal financial channels. Therefore, it is imperative to accelerate the building of related laws and regulations, make the punishments for illegal cashiers more severe and formalize the issuing and management of POS. In addition, we should spare no efforts to develop our finance industry and take various measures to ease the financing of family, medium and small firms in order to eliminate the illegal cashing.
Part III solves problems, corresponding to Chapter Five, Six and Seven.
Firstly, this paper conducts a comparative research on the experiences of the credit card industries in the representative countries, from which some useful lessons are summarized. In the USA, the origin place of credit card, the development of credit card industry has been mainly pushed forward by market powers, which is characterized by an extremely important role of bank card organization and a perfect judicial environment provided by the specialization of the credit card industry and government agencies for risk avoiding. In Japan, which has the second largest credit card industry, its government had been implementing a strict control over its credit card industry until the 1990s of 20th century, when the Japanese government tried to solve the vicious debts of the bank industry. Since then, the Japanese credit card industry has been developing rapidly. However, it has a high the fraud rate due to the relatively high communication cost in Japan, and also has little scale economy effect due to the strict control on the merging of retailers and the many closed settling organizations in Japan. In South Korea, although the interventions and favourable policies from its government have promoted the development of its domestic credit card industry, its government fails to provide a perfect judicial environment. In addition, its credit card firms hadn't paid enough attention to risk controls during the extraordinary expansion process, which resulted in a major setback in the development of the credit card industry. In some South America countries like Argentina and Brazil, the domestic governments over-opened their doors to foreign capitals, which made their national industries degenerate to the slaves of the global market. In comparison, some southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Malaysia have successfully balanced the opening to foreign capitals and the protection of their national credit card industries, the experiences of which possess a high value of learning.
Secondly, this paper analyzes and summarizes the financial crises. Since financial crises are credit crises to a large extent, the lessons from the major financial crises in human history possess a great value to learn for the development of Chinese credit card industry. This paper briefly overviews and analyzes the Latin America debt crisis, the Asian financial crisis and the USA supreme crisis. To account for the characteristic of the USA subprime crisis, this paper gives a particular analysis of its impacts upon Chinese credit card industry, and finds that the current suprime crisis may pose a deadly impact on American credit card industry, while the impact on Chinese credit card industry is still within control. However, this paper points out that it's also necessary for our Chinese people to draw lessons from the major financial crises. These lessons include:from the perspective of industrial guidelines, it's imperative to correctly understand the relation between real economy and fictitious economy, and keep the credit economy within our control; from the perspective of card issuing organizations, it's imperative to build and improve a risk management system, strengthen the checking of credit card customers, keep the business innovations within a proper limit and build a risk warning system; from the perspective of government, it's imperative to build a well-functioning industry regulation system, propose and enhance corresponding law and regulation measures, correct the wrong promotion activities of credit cards from various aspects, prohibit the illegal activities in credit card markets and promote the healthy development of credit card industry.
Finally, this paper proposes some policy suggestions to promote the development of Chinese credit card industry. Suggestions from the macro perspective of industry include:to strengthen the judicial supervision and various supports from the government, provide a perfect judicial environment and implement some necessary favourable policies; to guide the credit card markets more effectively and to form a properly competitive and cooperative operating atmosphere; to lead build and enhance a social credit system, improve the risk avoiding ability of credit card industry and enlarge its scale such that scale economy effect can be achieved; to promote business innovations by scientific technologies, properly introduce foreign capitals and promote the healthy development of our national credit card industry. Suggestions from the micro perspective of agents include:to lead the rational marketing of issuing banks, cultivate the sense of initiative service and strengthen risk control; to strengthen the building of national bank card organization and bring the professional service organization to its full play; to improve the receiving environment of Chinese credit cards, and make the merchants gain profits in a comfortable and rapid payment system; to guide the transition of concepts on individual consumption, and strengthen the sense of individual credit.
引文
1程贵孙、孙武军,“银行卡产业运作机制及其产业规制问题研究——基于双边市场理论视角”,《国际金融研究》,2006年第1期；
2马腾,“商业银行信用卡业务经营战略研究”,《金融研究》,2004年第12期；
3黄兴海,“发达国家银行卡产业发展的若干趋势”,《中国金融》2005年第7期；
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