摘要
产业集群是一种重要的经济组织方式,而演化动态非均衡的发展观是事物发展的基本特征,而且微观个体的活动更是宏观经济变化的基础。目前已有的建立在静态均衡对个体高度抽象的研究范式虽然在一定程度上对现实世界进行了解释,但随着认识的深入,这种研究范式体系存在的问题也逐步显现。
本文以演化经济学为主要理论基础,从个体行为角度,对区域产业集群的发育成长进行了微观至宏观的解析,构建了以个体学习为主要演化机制的研究框架,并尝试建立了个体学习的数学模型以及产业集群数量规模的演化模型,并进一步通过实证进行了有关的检验。
因此,本文主要得的研究内容及成果有:
(1)以演化经济学为基础,对产业集群这个特定的经济组织建立了基于演化理论的分析框架。明确提出了产业集群的发育过程是一个动态的演化过程,产业集群的出现,是一个在历史与偶然作用的产物,但在这之后,个体学习机制对于产业集群的演化起着更为重要的作用,产业集群发育的整个历史就是个体学习机制下的演化历史。并且,在这个过程中,产业集群所在的区域内社会环境的各种因素,包括历史和偶然因素对个体的学习产生作用,从而影响了产业集群在这个特定空间内的发育过程。
(2)以个体学习作为演化机制,以知识集,包括个人知识集和共同知识集作为产业集群演化发育过程的载体,构建了有别于SCP等已有分析范式的基于知识集的个体学习的产业集群演化范式,以此范式能够对产业集群发育过程中的基本现象:产业集群的空间集聚过程、产业集群内部形成的高度紧密的分工体系,以及在产业集群发育中社会资本及其网络的相互作用等进行较好的说明。
(3)以心理学构建主义认知学习理论为基础,建立了个体学习模型,进一步得到了产业集群发育数量规模演化的数学模型,并且通过实证检验了构建的理论体系以及有关模型与现实产业集群发育过程的相符程度和解释能力。
(4)以社会经济学为基础,对影响产业集群中个体学习发生的社会资本及其网络状况进行了分析,并且通过实证统计分析,对有关因素在特定产业集群发育中的影响程度进行了研究。
(5)分析了产业集群发育中路径依赖的个体根源,指出了产业集群发育过程中表现出来的路径依赖源于个体学习的认知路径依赖,而且个体学习的路径依赖具有双重作用,包括了对产业集群快速发展的促进作用。
(6)因此,以个体学习作为产业集群的演化机制,能够完善了已有产业集群研究理论,实现了沟通个体微观与产业集群宏观演化过程的中间环节。
本研究的主要创新之处有:
(1)构建了基于演化经济学理论的产业集群演化研究框架。
(2)论证了产业集群演化的微观机制是个体学习:并对个体学习进行了深入探讨,提出了提出了基于知识集的以个体学习作为主要演化机制的产业组织演化范式。
(3)对个体学习与产业集群发育之间的关系进行了深入的研究,包括个体学习与产业集群的数量规模边界、产业集群分工进程、以及产业集群内社会资本的构建等方面内容。
(4)论证了个体学习路径依赖是产业集群宏观发育路径依赖的微观机制,分析了个体学习路径依赖的产生原因及其双重作用,探讨了个体学习路径依赖的影响因素和路径创生,强调了从个体学习角度企业家的作用,实证了国内外多种类型的产业集群中个体学习路径依赖。
(5)综合考虑个体预期、个体认知特点和知识积累等因素,按照逐步深入的原则,构建了基于单Agent的Bayesian过程的MAS学习模型、将环境变化和知识积累纳入模型的基于个体历史信息与环境变化的个体学习模型,以及在网络互动状况下,包括了个体所处环境变化和知识积累的基于个体历史信息与环境变化和群体网络互动的学习模型,使得对于个体学习模型逐渐贴近实际社会活动中的个体学习过程,并且通过仿真对模型所表示的体学习的一般规律进行了研究;以个体学习模型为基础,借鉴投资心理等方面的研究结果,构建了产业集群发育的数量规模模型。
(6)通过实证对研究内容进行验证,采用统计分析工具对本研究有关内容进行定量分析。
此外,本研究创新之处还有诸如将生态位理论方法应用于产业集群研究中,构建了Logistic模型用于简要分析产业集群发育演化过程,解释了产业集群演化的可能结果等。
Industry cluster is a very important economic organization, the ideology of evolution and inequilibrium is the basic character of the development, and the micro behavior of individuals is the foundation of the macro economy. At present, the highly abstracted research paradigms based on static equilibrium explains the real world in some degree, but with the development of study, the problems of this kind of research paradigms
On the theory of evolution economics, which is the main theory of this paper, and the individual behavior, this paper studied the development course of industry cluster from micro to macro, built a framework of the individual learning, as the mechanism of evolution of industry cluster, made up the math models of individual learning and the evolution of the scope of industry cluster, and tested related study results with the field study.
This paper gained the following content:
First, based on evolution economics, a framework is built to analysis the organization of industry cluster. The dynamic evolution of the development of industry cluster was clearly explained, the appearance of industry cluster was the result of history and random. But after this, the mechanism of individual learning played an important role to the evolution of industry cluster; therefore, the history of the development of industry clusters was the history of individual learning. Also, in this course, all the factors of social environment locating the industry cluster, including the historic and random, influenced individual learning, so that to influence the evolution of industry cluster in certain area.
Second, on the mechanism of individual learning, and the knowledge set, including private knowledge set and common knowledge set, a research paradigms of the development of industry cluster, was built, different from the SCP, etc. This paradigm could explain the related phenomenon in the developing course of industry clusters, including the collection of location, the highly related division system, and the social capital and its network in industry clusters.
Third, on the cognitive learning theory, individual learning models were built, and also the model of the scope of industry cluster was also built, followed by the test of the ability of explaining the reality by field work.
Forth, on the theory of social economics, social capital and its network influencing the individual learning in industry clusters were analyzed, and with the statistic analysis, related factors in certain industry cluster cases were studied too.
Fifth, the cognitive path dependence of individual learning was pointed to be the region of the path dependence of the development of industry cluster, and the individual learning path dependence had double influence, to promote the development and to obstacle it.
Sixth, individual learning as the evolution mechanism, could be the intermeddle course between the micro individual behavior and the macro development of industry cluster, which promoted the exiting theories of industry cluster.
And the main innovations in this paper include:
First, built a framwork of industry cluster analysis on evolution theory;
Second, proved that individual learning was the micro-mechanism of the evolution of industy clusters, and discussed this mechanism; then provided a paradigm on the knowledge set;
Third, studied the relations between the development of industry cluster and individual learning, including the edage of scope, progress of division, and the construction of social capital in it;
Forth, proved the cognitive path dependence of individual learning was the micro-mechanism of the path dependence of the development of industy cluster, analyzed the double functions of path dependence of individual learning, discussed the influence factors and the path ceation, emphasized the importance of enterprenurs in path creation, and made case studies.
Fifth, on the individual expections, congnitive charactors, and the acomulation of knowledge, math models were built,and also computer simulations were processed to study the; then on the individual learning models, referenced the study of psychology of investment, the model of the scope of industry cluster was built.
Sixth, the content of this paper was tested by field study and quantity analysis, and the results supported the conclustions of the paper.
Besides, the innovations also included the applications of niche theory, the Logistic model, etc.
引文
17 在《珠三角真实的薪资水平》中的几个案例提供的真实薪资平均水平在300-350圆左右,包伙食;因此这个工资水平也是最近几年当地出现劳动力紧张的一个重要原因。2006.02.01,http://info.china alibaba.com/news/detail/v5003013-d5579489-p2.html#newsdetail-content.
18 外部性对成本的和效率的作用是与分工共同作用实现的,而且二者在产业集群中也是共同演进的,关于分工后文有详细的论述。
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