摘要
投资决策是企业最重要的财务决策,也是影响一国经济增长的主要因素。然而,相对于理论分析中的最优投资规模而言,企业总存在着投资不足或过度投资等问题。对此传统经济学理论表现出有限的解释力。随着行为决策研究的推进,行为公司金融领域的研究者们开始尝试放松传统“经济人”理性假设,用企业管理者和资本市场参与者的“有限理性”解释企业中的投资异象。过度自信作为影响行为主体决策过程的一种重要心理偏差,在研究之初就得到了极大关注。然而,现有研究较少关注管理者过度自信—决策过程—企业投资选择过程本身,因而未能清晰地揭示管理者过度自信影响企业投资行为与效率的精确机制。为弥补以往研究的不足,论文拟打开隐藏在组织背后的决策者黑箱,从行为与结果层面入手,揭示企业高管过度自信对企业投资决策的影响。为促进我国企业投资决策合理化、提升企业价值、取得并保持竞争优势提供理论指导。
论文以企业中拥有经营决策权的高管人员为研究对象,综合采用问卷调查、实验室实验和计量研究方法,通过开展高管过度自信偏差对企业自主投资中的实物资产投资决策的影响研究,从过程与结果两条路径揭示高管过度自信对企业投资决策的影响,识别过度自信给企业带来的潜在成本与收益。在此基础上,结合高管过度自信的影响因素,从高管个人认知技能训练与行为公司治理角度,寻求促进企业投资决策合理化,提升企业投资效率的有效途径。通过上述研究,论文在探索我国高管过度自信对企业投资决策的影响上取得了以下成果和创新：
(1)通过问卷调查,采用第一手数据证实了我国企业高管人员大多将企业利益和股东财富最大化作为投资动机,并且在投资决策过程中表现出一定程度的有限理性。我国企业高管人员普遍存在过度自信的倾向,不同企业特征和个人背景特征下的被调查对象在自信程度上存在显著差异：企业规模越大,被调查对象越过度自信；持股的被调查对象比不持股者更加过度自信；随着高管个人经验的增加和职称的提升,其过度自信程度也不断增加。过度自信对高管人员的投资决策和行为存在影响。
(2)借鉴实验心理学、行为经济学和实验经济学的研究成果,分阶段地设计实验研究过度自信对企业投资决策过程的影响,真实地描述过度自信对企业投资影响的黑箱环节,从认知偏差角度解释企业投资异化。研究发现过度自信是一个具有情境性的、多构面的复合概念,与投资情境密切相关的过度自信对参与者的投资项目选择、项目贯彻执行、项目评价和后续投资决策等企业投资决策过程存在显著影响。
(3)突破传统经济学将个体视为同质的局限性,将企业高管人员视为异质群体,采用联立方程模型分别研究了董事会、董事长和经理人过度自信对企业投资效率的影响,从决策结果层面揭示高管过度自信对企业投资决策的影响。比较研究的结果发现,董事会信心与企业投资效率无显著关联；董事长信心对投资效率存在较为稳健的显著负向影响,董事长越过度自信,企业投资效率越低；而总经理信心则对投资效率存在显著但不太稳健的正向影响,总经理越过度自信,企业投资效率反而越高。
(4)立足我国企业实际,采用问卷调查和计量研究方法,从高管个人背景特征和组织特征两个不同层面,探讨影响我国企业高管人员过度自信的主要因素。研究发现,高管过度自信具有系统内生性,董事会、董事长和总经理的信心水平基本上都受到了彼此信心的正向影响。不同类型高管人员的信心受不同个体和组织特征因素的影响,并且各因素的作用方向和程度也有所不同。
(5)基于理论与实证研究结果,在对高管过度自信给企业带来的潜在成本和收益进行分析的基础上,研究主张在发挥过度自信积极影响的同时,应采取恰当措施控制企业高管人员的过度自信：一方面可通过纠偏策略提高企业高管个人的认知技能,有意识地在决策过程中控制过度自信的不良影响；另一方面可通过发挥企业内部行为公司治理的积极作用,促进企业投资决策合理化。
The corporate investment decision is the most important finance decision in corporate, and it is also a primary factor that effects the growth of a country economic. However, Compare with the most superior investment scale in some theoretical analyses, the corporate always invest insufficiency or excessively. And the traditional economic theory could only provide limited explanations. With the gradual development of behavior decision theory, the researchers in the field of behavior corporate finance try to relax the tradition hypothesis of the rational'economic man' and explain many abnormal investment phenomena in corporate decision-making with the consideration of the bounded rationality of both mangers and the participant in capital market. At the beginning of the development of this kind of study, the researchers paid lots of attention to the effect of overconfident on corporate investment decision because overconfidence is the primary psychological bias that impact the agent's decision-making process. However, existing studies paid few attentions to the process of overconfidence bias-decision-making process-corporate investment, thus could not reveal the precise mechanism of the effects of managerial overconfidence on the corporate investment behavior and efficiency clearly. To make up the insufficiency of previous studies, the paper try to study the impact of top managers'overconfidence bias on the corporate investment decision, and open the black box hides behind organization's decision-maker, by the way of both the behaviors and the results of investments. In order to provide theoretical instructions to make the corporate investment decisions in our country more reasonable, and to promote the corporate value as well as to obtain and maintain the competitive advantages.
The paper take the top managers as the object of study, and conducts the questionnaire survey, the laboratory experiment and econometrics study method to explore the effect of top managerial overconfidence bias on the corporate real asset investment decisions to reveal the effect of overconfidence on the corporate investment decision both from the way of decision process and results.Then, the paper analyses the potential income and cost of the top manager' overconfidence that bring to the corporate investment decision according to the empirical study results, then propose two kinds of advices to make the investment decision in corporate more reasonable to advance the efficiency of corporate investment. One is to conduct individual cognition skill training to the top managers; the other is about the use institutions of behavior corporate governance. Through the above studies, this paper gets same results in exploring the effects of top managers'overconfidence on corporate investment decision in our country, the results are as following:
(1) With the questionnaire investigation, the paper uses the first hand data to prove that the top managers in our country mostly conduct the investment to maximized the benefit of the corporate and the wealth of the shareholders, and they display some extent of bounded rationality in the process of investment decision. The top managers in our country have overconfidence tendency, and the degree of subjects'confidence are significant differents in different corporates as well as different individual characteristics.The larger of the corporate, the higher of the overconfidence levels of those subjects; the subjects who own shares in coroorates are more overconfidence than those who do not own the shares; the overconfidence is enhanced by the increasing experience and the promoting of the titles. And the overconfidence really impact the investment actions in corporate.
(2) Profits the research results from the experimental psychology, the behavior economic and the experimental economic, two experiments are designed and conduct step by step to explore potential causal relationships between overconfidence and corporate investment decision process, to describe the black box of how the overconfidence impact the corporate investment, then explains the abnormal phenomena in corporate investment from the cognitive bias angle. The study finds out that overconfidence is a conditional compound concept with more than one dimensions, the overconfidence in investment conditions have significant effects on participant's investment project selection, the commitment of project decision, the evaluation of the project and the decision on the last stage of investment and so on.
(3) The paper breaks through the limitation of traditional economic that regards the individuals as homogeneity one, and treat the top managers as the heterogenic team, then study the effects of overconfidence of boards, chairman and the manager on the efficiency of investment separately by means of the simultaneous equation model to expose the effects of top managerial overconfidence on corporate investment decision from the outcome of the decision. The compared research finds out that the relationship between the board of directors'confidence and the investment efficiency is not significant at all; the chairman's confidence have a stead significant negative effect on the investment efficiency,the more overconfidence of the chairman the lower of the investment efficiency; and the manager's confidence has significant but not so stead positive effects on corporate investment efficiency, the more overconfidence of the manager the higher of the investment efficiency.
(4) The primary factors that impact the overconfidence of corporate top managers are demonstrated by the questionnaire survey both from the top managers'backgrounds and the organizational characteristics bases on the corporates in our country. The study finds out the top managers' overconfidences are endogenetic variables, the confidence of the board, chairman and manager have influences from each other. And the confidence levels in different types of top manager are affected by different kinds of individual and organizational characteristic factors, and the direction and degree of effects of these factors are quite different.
(5) The potential cost and the income that the top managers' overconfidence brings to the corporate are analyze based on the theoretical and empirical study results. The study advocated that we should get benefits from overconfidence as well as adopt appropriate measures to control the corporate top managers' overconfidence. On the one hand, we could enhance the top managers' individual cognitive skill by the remedy strategies used to correct for overconfidence bias, to control the adverse effect of overconfidence in the decision-making process consciously; On the other hand, we could make full use of the positive role of behavior corporate governance in internal control systems to advance the corporate investment decision.
引文
①转引自：[美]J.E.Russo等著.决策行为分析[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,1998,8:1.
②转引自：李纾.发展中的行为决策研究[J].心理科学进展,2006,14(4):490-496.
③转引自：[美]J.E.Russo等著.决策行为分析[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,1998,8:5.
①转引自[美]J.E.Russo等著.决策行为分析[M].北京：北京师范大学出版社,1998,8:17.
①转引自Doukas, J.A. & Petmezas,D.. Acquisitions, Overconfident Managers and Self-attribution Bias[J]. European Financial Management,2007,13(3):531-577.
②转引自van de Venter,G. & Michayluk,D.. An Insight into Overconfidence in the Forecasting Abilities of Financial Advisor[J].Australian Journal of Management,2008,32(3):545-557.
①转引自：黄品豪.网络下单对投资行为与投资绩效之影响：[硕士学位论文].台湾：国立中央大学.2002,6.
①转引自：张征争,黄登仕.CEO过度自信对薪酬合同影响理论综述[J].西南交通大学学报(社会科学),2007,8(3):113-117.
①转引自：Doukas, J.A. & Petmezas,D..Acquisitions, Overconfident Managers and Self-attribution Bias[J]. European Financial Management,2007,13(3):531-577.
①转引自：Menkhoff, L., Schmidt, U. & Brozynski,T..The impact of experience on risk taking,overconfidence, and herding of fund managers:Complementary survey evidence[J]. European Economic Review,2006,50:1753-1766.
①详见于窈,李纾.“过分自信”的研究及其跨文化差异[J].心理科学进展,2006,14(3):468-474.
②转引自Acker, D. & Duck, N.W..Cross-cultural overconfidence and biased self-attribution[J]. Journal of Socio-Economics,2008,37(5):1815-1824.
①详见于窈,李纾(2006)的研究中对这类过度自信测量方法的描述与举例。
②详见van de Venter & Michayluk(2008)的相关研究综述。
①本部分对测量方式的分类及部分描述主要来自于周爱保,赵鑫(2008)的研究,本研究在此基础上进行了补充。
②如Lee,Yates & Shinotsuka(1995)在研究中所采用的问题：“想象一个由100名和你同性别,并且和你同时入学的大学生组成的随机样本。假设你是这100名学生中的一个。假设将该样本中所有的100名学生按照他们找到工作的时间先后排序。你认为在该样本中,有多少人(0-99)会比你先找到工作?”Acker & Duck(2008)在跨文化的研究中用则股票市场博弈来测量参照型过度自信,即让参与者回答：“当我们根据本周的决策对所有参与者个人帐户价值变化排序时,你认为你将排在第几位?”。
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