摘要
【目的】
以Excel软件为平台,编制具备通用性和操作简便性的Delphi法资料统计分析程序,为该类型资料的统计分析提供一个简便易用的计算途径。
【方法】
1.查阅文献:查阅国内外有关Delphi法的专著及文献,了解和熟悉其原理、过程和统计分析方法,以及应用Delphi法确定条目权重的方法。
2.编写程序:根据Delphi法的统计分析计算公式,应用Excel软件的统计、数学、数组、逻辑等函数及VBA,编写及调试程序。
3.评价程序:将Excel程序的分析结果与SAS、SPSS的计算结果进行比较并评价。
【结果】
建立了Delphi法资料的Excel统计分析程序,该程序可提供包括专家基本情况、积极程度、权威程度、专家意见集中程度、协调程度,以及常用的结合Delphi法获得指标权重方法的计算结果。权重计算方法分为按指标重要性评分计算权重和专家直接评定权重两类,前者包括直接估计法、加权均值法、百分权重法、秩和比法、改进的比例分配法、对比排序法和专家排序法,后者包括专家直接打分法、层次分析法和优序图法。通过实例数据的验算,Excel程序与SAS、SPSS的分析结果一致,并在通用性、易用性和可及性上具有一定的优势。
【结论】
应用Excel可编制通用性的Delphi法资料统计分析程序,该程序具有通用性强、界面直观、操作简便的特点。
[Objectivel
A universal procedure for Delphi method was established based on the platform of Excel software.The aim of the study is to provide an easy-to-use calculational way for Delphi method.
[Methods]
1.Reviewed literatures.Domestic and international monographs and literatures about Delphi method were consulted,to understand and be familiar with the principles,process of Delphi method,statistical analysis,and the calculative methods for index weight.
2.Programmed.The procedure was established and tested according to the computational formulas of Delphi method,by applied the statistical,mathematic,array,logical functions and VBA of Excel.
3.Evaluated procedure.The consistency of statistical results among Excel procedure,SAS,and SPSS,were compared and evaluated with actual data.
[Results]
An Excel procedure for Delphi method was established to provide statistical analysis for experts' basic information,level of the authority,concentration and coordination of attitude,as well as index weight.Two kinds of method for calculating index weight were included:one was based on the important grade of index,dealing wtih directed estimation methods,weighted mean method,percentile weight method,RSR,improved proportional distribution method,compared scoring method and expert precedence ordering method;another one was based on the estimate of index weight by experts,dealing with expert direct scoring method,AHP and precedence chart. The computed results were consistent with the outcome of SAS and SPSS.This Excel program possessed universal property and easy to operate.
[Conclusions]
A universal data analysis procedure for Delphi method can be established by employing Excel. The Excel procedure can operate statistical analysis for Delphi method correctly and conveniently.
引文
[1]傅毓维,张凌.预测决策理论与方法[M].第1版.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学出版社,2003:174-193.
[2]曾光,李辉.现代流行病学方法与应用[M].第1版.北京:北京医科大学中国协和医科大学联合出版社,1994:250-270.
[3]Linstone H A,Turoff M.The Delphi Method:Techniques and Applications[M].NewYork:Addison-Wesley,1975:3-4.
[4]陈玉祥,朱桂龙.科学选择的理论、方法及应用[M].第1版.北京:机械工业出版社,1994:219-239.
[5]白书忠.军队医学科研管理学[M].第1版.北京:人民军医出版社,2004:76-81.
[6]李铁映,张昕.预测决策方法[M].第1版.沈阳:辽宁人民出版社,1984:30-63.
[7]谭跃进.定量分析方法[M].第1版.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:69-73.
[8]郭秀花.实用医学调查分析技术[M].第1版.北京:人民军医出版社,2005:35-38.
[9]吴清烈,蒋尚华.预测与决策分析[M].第1版.南京:东南大学出版社,2004:15-23.
[10]袁礼固.调查研究决策[M].第1版.哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学出版社,1989:70-77.
[11]Baker J,Lovell K,Harris N.How expert are the experts? An exploration of the concept of 'expert'within Delphi panel techniques[J].Nurse Res,2006,14(1):59-70.
[12]Brown B B.Delphi Process:a method by used for the elicitation of opinions of expert[M].Santa Monica:The Rand Corporation,1968:3925-3942.
[13]Keeney S,Hasson F,Mckenna H P.A critical review of the Delphi technique as a research methodology for nursing[J].Int Nurs Stud,2001,38(2):195-200.
[14]Powell C.The Delphi technique:myths and realities[J].J Adv Nuts,2003,41(4):376-382.
[15]Murphy M K,Black N A,Lamping D L,et al.Consensus development methods,and their use in clinical guideline development[J].Health Technol Assess,1998,2(3):ⅰ-ⅳ,1-88.
[16]Hasson F,Keeney S,Mckenna H.Research guidelines for the Delphi survey technique[J].J Adv Nuts,2000,32(4):1008-1015.
[17]毛立坡.四川省城市社区卫生服务示范机构评估研究[D].成都:四川大学,2007.
[18]陈建勋,傅升.探悉德尔菲法的知识自增值机制及其改进[J].软科学,2005,19(1):9-14.
[19]孙振球,王乐三.医学综合评价方法及其应用[M].第1版.北京:化学工业出版社,2006:11.
[20]Long T,Johnson M.Research in nurse education today:Do we meet our aims and scope?[J].Nurse Educ Today,2005,25(8):601-608.
[21]任佰玲,胡志,周新发.应用Delphi法建立住院医师规范化培训基地评价指标体系的研究[J].中华医学科研管理杂志,2004,24(9):48-50.
[22]Marsden J,Dolan B,Holt L.Nurse practitioner practice and deployment:electronic mail Delphi study[J].J Adv Nurs,2003,43(6):595-605.
[23]孙明玺.预测学概论[M].第1版.杭州:浙江教育出版社,1989:28-55..
[24]Moreno-Casbas T,Martin-Arribas C,Orts-Cortes I,et al.Identification of priorities for nursing research in Spain:a Delphi study[J].J Adv Nurs,2001,35(6):857-863.
[25]黄芳.应用Delphi法建立医院病房护理质量的评价指标[J].解放军护理杂志,2008,25(5B):18-20.
[26]Rudy S F.A review of Delphi surveys conducted to establish research priorities by specialty nursing organizations from 1985 to 1995[J].ORL Head Neck Nurs,1996,14(2):16-24.
[27]Pelletier D,Duffield C,Adams A,et al.Australian nurse educators identify gaps in expert practice[J].J Contin Educ Nurs,2000,31(5):224-231.
[28]Pulcini J,Wilbur J,Allan J,et al.Determining criteria for excellence in nurse practitioner education:Use of the Delphi Technique[J].Nurs Outlook,2006,54(2):102-110.
[29]Hardy D J,O'brien a P,Gaskin C J,et al.Practical application of the Delphi technique in a bicultural mental health nursing study in New Zealand[J].J Adv Nurs,2004,46(1):95-109.
[30]Graham B,Regehr G,Wright J G.Delphi as a method to establish consensus for diagnostic criteria[J].J Clin Epidemiol,2003,56(12):1150-1156.
[31]Guangyi X,Chongsuvivatwong V,Geater A,et al.Application of Delphi Technique in Identification of Appropriate Screening Questions for Chronic Low Back Pain from Traditional Chinese Medicine Experts'Opinions[J].J Altern Complement Med,2009,15(1):47-52.
[32]陈青山,王声湧,荆春霞,等.应用Delphi法评价亚健康的诊断标准[J].中国公共卫生,2003,19(12):1467-1468.
[33]关若丹.运用德尔菲法对乳腺癌分期辨证规范化的研究[D].广州:广州中医药大学,2007.
[34]Chie W C,Huang C S,Chen J H,et al.Utility assessment for different clinical phases of breast cancer in Taiwan[J].J Formos Med Assoc,2000,99(9):677-683.
[35]Richter A,Ostrowski C,Dombeck M P,et al.Delphi panel study of current hypertension treatment patterns[J].Clin Ther,2001,23(1):160-167.
[36]Flower A,Lewith G T,Little P.Seeking an oracle:using the Delphi process to develop practice guidelines for the treatment of endometriosis with Chinese herbal medicine[J].J Altern Complement Med,2007,13(9):969-976.
[37]Zebrack B J,Eshelman D A,Hudson M M,et al.Health care for childhood cancer survivors:insights and perspectives from a Delphi panel of young adult survivors of childhood cancer[J].Cancer,2004,100(4):843-850.
[38]Meaume S,Gemmen E.Cost-effectiveness of wound management in France:pressure ulcers and venous leg ulcers[J].J Wound Care,2002,11(6):219-224.
[39]Thaulow E,Jorgensen B,Doyle J J,et al.A pharmacoeconomic evaluation of results from the Coronary Angioplasty Amlodipine Restenosis Study(CAPARES) in Norway and Canada[J].Int J Cardiol,2002,84(1):23-30;discussion 30-22.
[40]Bertran M J,Trilla A,Codina C,et al.[Analysis of the cost-effectiveness relationship in the empirical treatment in patients with infections of the lower respiratory tract acquired in the community][J].Enferm Infecc Microbiol Clin,2000,18(9):445-451.
[41]Ferri C P,Prince M,Brayne C,et al.Global prevalence of dementia:a Delphi consensus study[J].Lancet,2005,366(9503):2112-2117.
[42]Byrne S,Wake M,Blumberg D,.et al.Identifying priority areas for longitudinal research in childhood obesity:Delphi technique survey[J].Int J Pediatr Obes,2008,3(2):120-122.
[43]Kellum J A,Mehta R L,Levin A,et al.Development of a clinical research agenda for acute kidney injury using an international,interdisciplinary,three-step modified Delphi process[J].Clin J Am Soc Nephrol,2008,3(3):887-894.
[44]Davis S,Piercy F,Meszaros P S,et al.Female adolescent smoking:a Delphi study on best prevention practices[J].J Drug Educ,2004,34(3):295-311.
[45]方力,戴立强,韩霞,等.全科团队慢性病防治模式研究中Delphi法应用[J].上海预防医学杂志,2008,20(6):282-284.
[46]Suwaratchai P,Sithisarankul P,Sriratanban J,et al.Utilize the modified Delphi technique to develop trauma care indicators[J].J Med Assoc Thai,2008,91(1):99-103.
[47]梁万年,王红,杨兴华.中国城市社区卫生服务评价指标体系的建立[J].中国卫生事业管理,2002,(8):460-462.
[48]侯小妮.综合医院护理质量评价指标体系的初步研究[D].北京:中国协和医科大学,2007.
[49]洪楠,侯军.国外统计软件的特色与风格简介[J].现代医学仪器与应用,2008,20(1):65-67.
[50]李国春.Spss统计软件简介[J].循证医学,2003,3(4):249-251.
[51]简德友.纵览医学统计软件[J].中国热带医学,2002,S2:188-192.
[52]曹秀堂,徐勇勇,赵清波,等.第十二讲 如何使用统计软件进行统计学分析[J].中华预防医学杂志,2002,36(6):65-67.
[53]孙维权.微软Excel软件统计功能简介[J].数理医药学杂志,2002,15(1):63-65.
[54]唐朝霞,赖伏虎,王舒,等.Excel在卫生统计工作中的综合应用[J].中国医院统计,2006,13(3):287-288.
[55]侯旭宏,沈富杰,王建华,等.应用Excel VBA高效完成统计分析[J].中华流行病学杂志,2005,26(12):995-998.
[56]黄海,徐海英,王琼妹.利用Excel宏实现医学统计中方差齐性检验自动化[J].中国热带医学,2004,4(2):276-277.
[57]陈向荣.VB与Excel二次开发[J].福建电脑,2005,(3):72-74.
[58]李志春,王守英.拓展Excel统计分析功能的软件——WinSTAT[J].数理医药学杂志,2002,15(1):61-62.
[59]Tovar-Guzman V,Hernandez-Giron C,Barquera S,et al.Epidemiologic panorama of stomach cancer mortality in Mexico[J].Arch Med Res,2001,32(4):312-317.
[60]Mousavi S M,Mohaghegghi M A,Mousavi-Jerrahi A,et al.Burden of breast cancer in Iran:a study of the Tehran population based cancer registry[J].Asian Pac J Cancer Prev,2006,7(4):571-574.
[61]Ngoan Le T,Lua N T,Hang L T.Cancer mortality pattern in Viet Nam[J].Asian Pac J Cancer Prey, 2007,8(4):535-538.
[62]Liu M,Liang W N,Du H,et al.Epidemiological features of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Beijing urban and suburb areas in 2003[J].Biomed Environ Sci,2005,18(4):227-232.
[63]周健,刘兆爱.2004-2006年山东省人间布鲁氏菌病疫情分析[J].中国媒介生物学及控制杂志,2007,18(5):409-411.
[64]李军宏,李艺星,宁夏,等.中国2006年流行性脑脊髓膜炎早死所致疾病负担分析[J].中国疫苗和免疫,2008,14(2):127-129.
[65]罗卫平,刘来新,索菲娅,等.新疆五县居民死因及潜在寿命损失分析[J].中国热带医学,2008,8(9):1605-1625.
[66]Ngoan Le T,Anh N T,Huong N T,et al.Gastric and colo-rectal cancer mortality in Viet Nam in the years 2005-2006[J].Asian Pac J Cancer Prev,2008,9(2):299-302.
[67]Dordevic O,Popovic M B,Kostic V.Computerized method for arm movement assessment in Parkinson's disease and cerebellar syndrome patients[J].Srp Arh Celok Lek,2005,133(1-2):14-20.
[68]王波,胡泽萍.疑似麻疹血清IgM抗体检测219例[J].预防医学情报杂志,2008,24(5):348-349.
[69]徐洁.2001～2005年17960例恶性肿瘤住院病例统计分析[J].中国医院统计,2007,14(2):130-132.
[70]李志春,王守英.Excel分析工具库的统计分析功能[J].数理医药学杂志,2002,15(2):165-166.
[71]程光文.利用电子表格软件Excel进行医学科研数据的统计分析[J].湖北预防医学杂志,2002,13(1):10-11.
[72]刘尚辉张徐.Excel中的几种常用分析工具在医学统计上的应用[J].中国卫生统计,2003,20(3):190-191.
[73]盛洁,胡建华.Excel软件的统计功能在卡方检验中的应用[J].医学信息学,2008,21(1):28-31.
[74]蒋嫒.用Excel进行医学圆形分布资料分析[J].中国卫生统计,2001,18(1):37.
[75]Khan H A.SCEW:a Microsoft Excel add-in for easy creation of survival curves[J].Comput Methods Programs Biomed,2006,83(1):12-17.
[76]陈青山,王声沔,迟桂波,等.应用Excel完成性病Gm模型的预测和评价[J].疾病控制杂志,2003,7(5):451-453.
[77]Miles J N.Confirmatory factor analysis using Microsoft Excel[J].Behav Res Methods,2005,37(4):672-676.
[78]Sairenchi T,Iso H,Irie F,et al.Development of a tool for assessment of local government health policy[J].Nippon Koshu Eisei Zasshi,2005,52(12):1032-1044.
[79]Bowles N.The Delphi technique[J].Nurs Stand,1999,13(45):32-36.
[80]陈青山,王声渭,董晓梅,等.在Excel中完成Delphi法评价指标的计算[J].数理医药学杂志,2004,17(1):73-76.
[81]世诘资讯,王成春,萧雅云.Excel2002函数应用秘笈[M].第1版.北京:中国铁道出版社,2002:19-59,132,176,183,208-277.
[82]赵志东.Excel VBA基础入门[M].第1版.北京:人民邮电出版社,2006:9-25,143-144.
[83]金新政,厉岩.优序图和层次分析法在确定权重时的比较研究及应用[J].中国卫生统计,2001,18(2):119-120.
[84]赵志东.Excel VBA基础入门[M].第1版.北京:人民邮电出版社,2006:9-25,143-144.
[85]Okoli C,Pawlowski S D.The Delphi method as a research tool:an example,design considerations and applications[J].Information & Management,2004,42(1):15-29.
[86]Jones J,Hunter D.Consensus Methods for Medical and Health-Services Research[J].BMJ,1995,311(7001):376-380.
[87]Mckenna H P.The Delphi Technique-a Worthwhile Research Approach for Nursing[J].J Adv Nurs,1994,19(6):1221-1225.
[88]Williams P L,Webb C.The Delphi Technique-a Methodological Discussion[J].J Adv Nuts,1994,19(1):180-186.
[89]Beech B.Go the extra mile-use the Delphi Technique[J].J Nurs Manag,1999,7(5):281-288.
[90]汤旦林,王松柏.几种国际通用统计软件的比较[J].数理统计与管理,1997,16(1):48-53.
[91]张少华.几个主要统计分析软件简介[J].中国统计,2006,(8):43-44.
[92]Mccullough B D.Is it safe to assume that software is accurate?[J].International Journal of Forecasting,2000,16(3):349-357.
[93]Altman M,Mcdonald M P.Choosing reliable statistical software[J].Ps-Political Science & Politics,2001,34(3):681-687.
[94]Mccullough B D,Wilson B.On the accuracy of statistical procedures in Microsoft Excel 2000 and Excel XP[J].Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,2002,40(4):713-721.
[95]Keeling K B,Pavur R J.A comparative study of the reliability of nine statistical software packages[J].Computational Statistics & Data Analysis,2007,51(8):3811-3831.
[96]Microsoft 帮助与支持.XL2000:Algorithm Used for QUARTILE() Function[EB/OL].(2003-9-27)http://support.microsoft.com/kb/214072/en-us/.