摘要
害虫的发生变化及其异常对经济和社会发展影响己成为当前世界各国政府和科学
界十分关注的重大问题。褐飞虱(Nilaparvata lugens stal)是亚洲地区一种远距离迁飞
性水稻害虫。我国自70年代初以来,暴发频率显著增加,危害面积已扩展到江苏省及
(?)淮河以北地区。褐飞虱在我国常年发生面积约为2-3亿亩,年均损失稻谷10亿多公
斤。1991年,褐飞虱在全国各稻区特大暴发,发生面积3.4亿亩,虽经组织防治,仍
损失稻谷40多亿公斤,从而极大地影响了国民经济和社会的长期发展。虽然投入大量
人力、物力研究褐飞虱的预测预报,但目前褐飞虱长期预报的准确率仍然较低。因此,
如何解决褐飞虱长期预测中的“两难”问题,已成为政府和许多昆虫学家的关注热点。
为此,本文以混沌理论和分形理论为基础,研究了混沌诊断分析方法和褐飞虱发生系统
的特征及规律;并与统计理论、非线性科学中的混沌理论和神经网络理论相结合,进行
了褐飞虱发生预测的多种技术方法的研究。
首先,(1)从生物学、生态学、迁飞规律以及虫源性质等方面,简要介绍了褐飞
虱的研究概况。
(2)简述了混沌理论的一些基本概念和在昆虫系统中出现的混沌行为以及对它
们的研究,并论述了运用混沌理论研究昆虫问题的基本思想和常用的分析方法。
(3)概略的评述了害虫的预测预报方法及其局限性。探讨了害虫长期预报的可能
性和导致害虫长期预报不稳定的因素,它们是:①模式害虫发生系统与客观害虫发
生系统之间的差异,②害虫发生系统中各子系统资料的精度和完备性,③计算方法、
计算条件和计算误差,④非线性害虫发生系统的内在随机性。并着重对近年发展起
来的基于非线性理论的神经网络(ANN)、相空间重构(phase construction)和小波
变换(wavelet transforms)预测法的建模原理及其在害虫预测中的应用进行了详细的
阐述。
其次,利用自相关函数、功率谱图、相轨迹图、Poincare截面、返回映象图等方
法,对褐飞虱发生系统是否具有混沌特性进行了初步诊断,结果表明:即使有随机性的
噪声影响,仍可判明褐飞虱发生系统具有混沌特性。
在此基础上,利用我国长江流域太湖地区1986~1998年6~11月褐飞虱田间发生
时间序列资料,将褐飞虱发生的一维时间序列拓展到多维相空间中去。结果表明:我国
长江流域短期褐飞虱发生演化,在相空间中存在吸引子,并具有分维结构,其分维数是
4.43,为混炖吸引f(或奇异吸引于),对应的饱和嵌入维为10,证明了褐飞虱发生系
统的不规整性,描述该系统至少需要5个独立变量;用延滞T=5延拓的相空间,关联
维数D;h)对相空仰拓展时延滞,的效应是收敛的,各坐标分量是相互独立的,系统动
力学特征量是稳定的。
为了进-涉探讨褐B虱发牛系统的可预报尺度等问题,用相空间延拓的方法,计算
了Kolmogorov $以及褐飞虱发生的可预报尺度,得到K。值为0.0126~0.0236,用定量
方法再次证明我国K江流域褐6虱田间发生演化是一混饨系统;平均可预报尺度约为
114.0~253.2天,考虑相空问 e抬数膨胀因素后的平均可预报时间尺度约为 79.0~
175.5大。
为了刻画系统在相空间给定各方向上膨胀、收缩过程中的几何性质,用WOlf的方
法,求出了介不同参数条件’卜的最人 l。y。pUDOV A;。从中发现,对每一纠参数,均得到
入>0。义一次证叫我国卜江流域褐飞虱发生的短期演化存在着混淹吸引于,该系统的
演化订为只有混地动力学的演化特征。
为了更深入的研究褐6虱发生系统的不规则性,运用分形理论以安徽省庐江县植保
站和门苏省叉县植保站]97pel990年及太湖地区农科所1986-1998年间褐飞虱发生的出
问系统凋杏资料为例,对褐飞虱发生的性质进行了探讨,结果表明:()庐江站、吴县
站和人湖地卜农科所褐E虱发生A一定标度域内具有分形性质,其分维值分别为
0.7158、0.5212和 0.2816:(2)褐飞虱发生的分维值是表征一定标度区问发生程度差异
的一个新参数,分维值大,则发生程度轻,反之则重;(3)分维数D值与褐K虱发生
的聚集程度是密切相关的,D值小聚集程度大,反上聚集程度小,D值可以作为褐飞虱
聚集分布柠度的--个指标;N)褐6虱发生具有多重分形结构,其广义维数谱民曲线
。。丁以川}褐匕虱发牛的预测预报。
第二,在址明褐B虱发生系统具订混浊特扯基础上,利用相空问模的“相似”预测、
相主问“线性回门”预测、相空间“近邻态模的多项式回归”烦测和相空间“多点相似
改进”预测等多种相空间预测模型对褐飞虱发生预测进行了研究,结果表明:四种预测
模则的预报相对误井分别为46.010、12.410、13.08%、19.刀O,转化为发生程度,预
报准确率分别达73.64o、94.27o、97.14o、92.73O。相空间预测法能有效的降低误差
提高精度,为褐匕虱发生时间序列的叮预测性及预测模型的选择提供了一种新的依据。
在褐飞虱中长划预测工作中,由于褐E虱发生系统存在混饨现象,各要素之间关系
非常复杂,采用传统的线性相关处理?
The problem of the influence of insect pest occurrence changes and anomalies on the
development of economics and societies has drawn more and more attentions not only in
the worldwide scientific circle but also in many governments. Brown Planthopper(BPH),
Nilaparvuta Lugens(st鈒), is an important migration insect pest of rice corps both in tropical
and temperate area in the East and South Asia. BPH has become an increasingly serious
problem since the 1970s in China. Outbreaks have increased in frequency and the area
regularly infested has extended into the Jiangsu province (between the Yangtse and l-luaihe
Rivers) and north of the Huaihe River. On average, some tO?0 million hectares of the crop
are likely to be affected, with an annual loss of some haifa million tones of grain. In 1991,
the worst year on record, severe damage extended over the whole rice-growing region and
17.3 million hectares of paddy fields were infested by Brown Planthopper. in spite of great
efforts at prevention and control, more than 2 million tones in 1991, were still lost to these
infestations. These greatly affect the long-term development of economics and societies in
China. Despite the substantial manpower and material resources is invested to study the
BPH occurrence laws and forecast, the long-term forecasting power is still lower in these
days. So what about solving the dilemma problem of insect prediction, it has been turning
into the concerned hotspot for entomologists. In this paper, based on Chaos Theory and
Fractal Theory, we study the analysis method of chaotic diagnosis, and analyses the property
and laws in Brown Planthopper occurrence system. We also study the varied methods of
Brown Planthopper occurrence forecast by combining the statistics theory, the chaos theory
and the neural networks theory of nonlinear science.
Firstly, (1) Many researches on Brown Planthopper, Nilaparvata Lugens(st醠) in
biology, ecology, migration mechanism, migration rule and source of Brown Planthopper
fields, are described briefly.
(2) We present a brief review of some principal cOncepts in the theory of chaos
and mention the chaotic activities of the systems in insects. Also we introduce some
methods in the research on problems in insects by the theory of chaos.
(3) we generalize and evaluate pest forecasting methods and its limitations.
Probability and unsteady factors of long- term pest forecasting is discussed and
iv
suniznarized. Those factors are U) the difference between theoretic and practical pest
occurrence systems; @) the precision and integrality of data in all subsystems; ?the
method, condition and error of calculation; ?the inherent randomicity in nonlinear
System of pest occurrence. We paiticularly expatiate the modeling principle and steps
of forecasting methods of atificial neural networks (ANN), phase space reconstruction
and wavelet transforms based on nonlinear theory developed in recent years and their
application in pest forecasting, and foresee their development trend.
Secondly, Properties of Brown Planthopper occurrence system based on methods of
autoeorrelation function, power spectrwn figure, phase trajectory figure, Poincare section,
and return map, are preliminary analyses. Even though the iifluence of random noises, it is
distinguished that Brown Pl&ithopper occurrence system has chaotic property.
Based on above-mentitmed conclusion, time series data from June to November on
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