摘要
股票回购作为一种金融创新工具在西方已经有半个多世纪的历史,并且已经成为一种常见的利益分配政策和资本运营方式。虽然我国的股票回购起步较晚,但随着证券市场的不断规范和回购制度不断完善而迅速发展。在股权分置改革、“全流通”时代即将到来的大背景下,从定量角度清晰地认识股票回购产生的动机以及对证券市场和公司业绩带来的影响具有十分重要的理论参考价值和现实意义。
本文沿着建立研究假说、选择标准样本、设计研究变量、建立研究模型、分析实证结果和提出政策建议的逻辑主线,综合运用股票回购、公司治理和实证会计等理论与方法,对我国股票回购的动机及效应进行了实证研究。本文通过建立三个多元回归线性模型,检验我国股票回购动机和效应及其影响因素的显著相关性。结果表明,一方面国外成熟的信号传递假说、超额资金假说、财务杠杆假说能够解释我国股票回购动机;另一方面,保证股权分置改革的顺利进行和解决控股股东资金占用成为中国式回购动机。另外我国股票回购公告的市场反应短期内为正,且受到回购、低估程度、股利政策和同行业个股数多种因素的影响;上市公司在股票回购真正实施后,业绩有所提升,并受到资产负债率、市净率、回购金额、公司总资产、同行业个股数的影响。进而针对性提出了规范股票回购信息披露程序和格式、完善股票回购配套制度、关注股票回购动机的多元性和互动关系、注重新时期股票回购新特征和重视行业竞争程度对股票回购影响的政策建议。除此之外,本文还关注了股票回购实施后支付能力和偿债能力的变化。
As a financial innovation tool, share repurchase having been a kind of usual interest distribution policy and capital management mode for more than half a century in western counties. Despite starting late, share repurchase in China grows apace along with the development of standard securities market and system perfection. Therefore, it is significance for both theory and practice to figure out motivation and effect of share repurchase with quantitative method under background of shareholder structure reform and the coming full circulation age.
This thesis uses share repurchases theory, positive accounting theory and corporate governance theory to do a positive research on share repurchases motivation and effect of listed company in China by following logistic steps: establishing research hypothesis, selecting standard sample, designing variables, building models, analyzing empirical results and giving policy suggestions. We test share repurchase motivation and effect as well as influencing factors through three multiple linear regression models. Results show that on the one hand signaling hypothesis, excess capital hypothesis and financial leverage hypothesis could explain Chinese repurchases motivation; while on the other hand guaranteeing stock structure reform and solving fund occupation by controlling shareholders become new motivation with Chinese characteristics. Furthermore, our results provide corroborative and positive evidence for Chinese market response to share repurchase announcement in short time, which affected by repurchase ratio, competitors amount in same industry, payout ratio and price / earning Ratio. Corporate performance will be better after implementing share repurchase and influenced by liability asset ratio, price to book ratio, repurchase money amount, total assets and competitors amount in same industry. Then we put forward proposals including specification disclosure procedures and format, perfecting supporting institutions, pay close attention to interactions among motivations, new features of share repurchases recently and competition in same industry. In addition, we also focus on paying ability changes after share repurchase.
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