摘要
尽管我国水资源短缺的问题日益严重,但是洪涝灾害却也同样有增无减。以实现灾区社会的可持续发展、降低洪涝危害为目的,本文对蓄滞洪区洪水淹没过程模拟、洪水资源化实验研究、洪灾评估思想及指标体系建立、防洪减灾决策系统的构建等4个关键问题进行了较深入的分析。本文得到了国家自然科学基金项目和国家863项目的支持,取得的主要成果如下:
(1)分析了蓄滞洪区的地形特点,提出了简化的洪水淹没动态模拟方法。
经过几十年的快速发展,我国蓄滞洪区的环境受到人类的影响越来越大,土地的平整度、下垫面类型等都发生了很大的变化,而这些变化对洪水的演进也产生了重大的影响。根据地形趋于平缓、硬地面比例快速增加的特点,本文提出简化模拟洪水演进的思想,建立简化模拟的条件,采用数学形态学方法进行了洪水淹没动态模拟,并基于GIS对洪水最终淹没的区域进行计算。
(2)以洪水资源化为目标,研究了下垫面对降雨产流的影响规律。
以降雨模拟实验数据为依据,采用人工神经网络方法及基于遗传算法的改进LM-BP神经网络方法,构建了降雨产流的各种影响因素与径流系数的非线性关系,结果证明两种方法都能较精确的预测出特定条件下的径流系数变化规律,从而为准确预测地表产流总量奠定了基础。
(3)研究了洪灾评估的目的,阐述了完整的评估思想,并构建了洪灾“自愈”思想体系及评估指标。
国内外的洪灾评估各有侧重点,但都不够全面。因此,本文提出了灾区“自愈”思想,详细阐述了洪灾发生、发展和消失的过程,以及为预防和减少洪灾危害,灾区和外界应采取的相应措施。目的是为建立防洪减灾决策支持系统奠定基础。
(4)开发了洪水灾情评估系统。
以提供防洪减灾决策支持为目的,根据水利行业信息更新频繁、信息量庞大、信息种类繁多的特点,在网络B/S模式下,采用AAF为框架的中问件技术,并结合MVC的开发模式,在Web环境下对洪水灾情评估系统进行了总体设计。
In China, despite the problem of shortage of water resources is deteriorating, the flood disasters has also increased. With the purpose of realizing the sustainable development of disaster area and reducing the flood hazards, the paper established an integrated preventing and mitigating disaster system through analyzing problems of simulation of flood routing, flood utilization, establishing evaluation system of flood disaster, and decision support system of preventing and mitigating disaster of flood detention basin.
With support of the national nature sciences fund project and the national 863 project, the paper obtained some achievements, as following:
(1) Proposed simplified dynamic simulation method of flood routing based on the analyzing of topographic feature of flood detention basin.
In China, the environment of flood detention basin has been more and more influenced by human after decades of rapid development; there are great changes for the land level degree and types of underling surface. However such changes will significantly impact flood routing. Because the terrain becomes gentler and the hard ground is rapidly increasing, the paper proposed a simplified simulation method of flood routing, established simplified simulating conditions, performed dynamic simulation of flood routing using mathematical morphology method, and finally calculated the submersed area based on GIS.
(2)Taking flood utilization as purpose, the paper studied the influence of underling surfaces on rainfall-runoff.
Based on the data of rainfall simulation, the paper respectively established the nonlinear relationship between influencing factors and runoff coefficient of rainfall flow using LM-BP neural network and improved LM-BP neural network based on genetic algorithm. The results demonstrated that two methods all can accurately predict change law of runoff coefficient under special conditions, so can provide scientific algorithm for predicting gross surface runoff yield.
(3)The paper studied the objective of flood disaster evaluation, expounded integrated evaluating thinking, and established "self-recovering" thinking system and evaluation index system of flood disaster.
The foreign and domestic researches of flood disaster have focused on various aspects, but not comprehensive enough. So the paper proposed the idea of "self-recovering" of disaster area, and detailed the process of occurring, developing, and disappearing of flood, and corresponded measures adopted by disaster area and outside in order to preventing and mitigating flood disaster.The purpose is to establish foundation for setting up the decision support system of preventing and mitigating flood disaster.
(4)Established evaluating system of flood disaster
In order to provide decision support for preventing and mitigating flood disaster, and considering the characteristics of flood disaster such as frequent updating, huge contents, and various sorts, the paper designed flood disaster evaluation system in Web circumstance, combining MVC exploiting mode, and adopting middleware technology with AAF framework.
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