摘要
后金融危机时期,现有的国际经济政策协调方式和机制受到新的挑战,各国经济周期协动现象及国际经济政策协调问题引起越来越多的关注,加强对发展中国家与其贸易伙伴之间经济周期协动性的研究,及其参与国际经济政策协调的分析,明确宏观经济政策国际协调对发展中国家带来的福利效应,具有深远的意义。中美两国若能从全球高度,充分认识自身在世界经济中的地位和责任,加强国际经济政策协调与磋商,采取具有前瞻性的货币政策,对于改善双边经贸关系、调整两国国内经济结构失衡,对于全球走出危机、稳定世界经济增长具有不可替代的作用。
本文以各国之间经济周期协动为切入点,以中国及其27个主要贸易伙伴为样本,考察国际经济周期协动的界定、测度及发展动态,借助面板数据的普通最小二乘估计,实证分析其主要传递渠道及传递效应,从而获得影响中国与其主要贸易伙伴经济周期协动性的各个传递渠道的相对贡献的直观认识,从实证角度反映了各国进行宏观经济政策国际协调的必要性。同时,以NOEM为理论分析框架,以中美为研究对象,构建了国际货币政策协调的理论模型,并考虑了两国之间各部门受到不对称冲击的可能性,借助博弈论工具,结合两国的政策反应函数和福利函数，从理论角度进一步验证了中美加强国际货币政策协调的必要性及需要满足的条件。开放经济下，货币政策国际传递机制和国际协调机制的剖析，中美货币政策的相互溢出效应分析，以及中美货币政策国际协调对两国经济周期协动性和消费协动性的影响的研究，有助于全面把握两国货币政策国际协调机制的福利收益。结合金融危机以来中美两国货币政策协调的现实表现，提出中美建立长期有效的货币政策协调机制的政策建议。本文兼顾运用科学的经济学分析方法和严谨的博弈论分析方法，结合理论分析与经验分析、静态分析与动态分析，实现了研究对象创新、研究方法创新、研究角度创新以及研究结论创新。
本文框架共包括8个章节。
第一章，绪论，主要介绍论文的选题背景及意义、研究思路和方法、论文结构安排及主要创新之处。
第二章，经济周期协动性与国际经济政策协调文献综述，梳理了国内外关于经济U周期n协动R性的e界定g与测is度方t法e的文r献，介绍了国际经济政策协调的涵义、目标、类型和工具。从理论研究和实证研究角度，对国内外关于国际贸易、国际直接投资和国际产业结构变化等实体经济传递渠道的讨论进行了分析与归纳。同时，总结了国际经济政策协调的典型模型分析，包括从内外均衡政策搭配考察开放经济国际经济政策协调，借博弈论工具来分析国际经济政策协调的动因，从NOEM框架评价国际经济政策协调的福利，从实证角度量化国际经济政策协调的收益，以及从互动模式探究国际经济政策协调的方案等。
第三章，国际经济周期协动性的实证分析，从实证角度分析了欧盟主要国家、美国与欧盟主要国家、中国与其主要贸易伙伴之间经济周期协动性的发展动态与变化趋势。同时，考察了中国与其主要贸易伙伴之间的双边贸易、双边直接投资和产业结构变化等主要传递渠道及对其国际经济周期协动性的传递效应。
第四章，国际经济政策协调的理论模型，借鉴Canzoneri等（2005）对货币政策国际协调的福利的衡量和分析方法，基于NOEM理论框架，结合中美实际与金融危机背景，引入两国冲击不确定性存在不对称的情形，构建了不对称外生冲击下国际货币政策协调的两国三部门理论模型，探讨了两个国家各部门遭受不对称外生冲e击时d
的福利损失情形，由此确定帕累托最优的货币政策选择及需要满足的条件。
第五章，货币政策国际协调的机制分析，详述了开放经济下货币政策的最终目标、中介目标、工具和传递机制等，同时分析了不同汇率制下货币政策国际传递机制，并探讨了货币政策国际协调机制的功能定位及机制设U计，n为设R计新e形势g、新i环s境t下e的货r
币政策国际协调机制提供借鉴。
第六章，中美货币政策协调的福利效应，借助SVAR模型及脉冲响应函数，考察金融危机后，中美货币政策对各自国内经济的影响和对外国经济的溢出效应。并进一步探究了中美两国货币政策协调对两国经济周期协动性和消费协动性的福利效应。
第七章，全球金融危机以来中美货币政策协调的现实表现及评价，介绍了金融危机以来，中美两国国内经济受到的冲击及货币当局一系列政策措施的影响，并对两国货币政策协调效果及存在问题进行评价。
第八章，全文总结及若干政策建议，对论文的重要结论加以总结，在此基础上提出中美加强货币政策国际协调和中国参与货币政策国际协调的若干政策建议。
During post-financial-crisis, existing patterns and mechanisms of internationaleconomic policy coordination are confronted new challenges, and business cycleco-movements and international economic policy coordination among countries areincreasingly concerned. Study on business cycle co-movements and economic policycoordination among developing countries and its trade partners, and confirm welfareeffects of macroUecononmic Rpolicye coogrdinaitiosn fotr edeveloping countries haveprofounding meaning. If China and USA sufficiently recognize their status andresponsibility, reinforce international economic policy coordirnation and consultation,and take forward monetary policy from a global perspective, their will beirreplaceable impacts on China and USA improving bilateral economic and traderelationship, regulating economic structural unbalance, and also on the world out ofthe global crisis and sustaining stable economic growth.
The thesis first investigates definition, measurement and development ofinternational business cycle co-movements, and empirically analyses its maintransmission channels and their effects with panel data of China and its27tradepartners using OLS. Thus have an intuitive knowledge of relative contribution ofevery transmission channel that effects business cycle co-movements among China and its trade partners. It confirms the necessity of macroeconomic policy coordination empirically. The thesis construsts a theoretical model based on NOEM for China and USA monetary policy international coordination, considers the possibility of asymmetric shocks between two countries, uses game theory and policy reaction functions and welfare functions, thus further confirms the necessity and conditions of enhancing international monetary policy coordination theoretically. In open economy, investigate international transmission mechanisms and international coordination mechanisms of monetary policy, analyse spillover effects of monetary policy of China and USA, and decompose international coordination of monetary policies for GDP co-movements and consumption co-movements of China and USA, are conducible to fully learn welfare gains of international coordination mechanism of monetary policy. The thesis relates realistic performance of monetary policy coordination of China and USA since financial crisis, and then suggests an effective and long-term mechanism of monetary policy coordination between China and USA.The thesis both applies scientific economical methods and serious game theory, combining with theoretical and emepirical, static and dynamic analysis,and aehleves innovation in research objects, methods, dimensions and conclusions.
The thesis concludes eight chapters.
Chapter1, Introduction. It mainly introduce background and significance of topic, ideas and methods of research, struetnral arrangement and innovation of the thesis.
Chapter2, literature review (?) business cycle co-movements and international economic policy coordination. It sorts literatures on business cycle co-movements definition and measurement, introduces meaning, objective, type and instrument of international economic policy coordination. It analyses and generalizes discussions on chansmission channel;; of business cycle co-movement, such as international trade, foreign direct investment and international industry structural changes. It summaries models of international economic policy coordination, as studying open-economy international economic policy coordination from internal and external equilibrium policy mix, analyzing reasons of international economic policy coordination by game theory, evaluating welfare of international economic policy coordination from NOEM, quantizing welfare of international economic policy coordination empirically, and exploring scheme of international economic policy coordination.
Chapter3, empirical analysis of international business cycle co-movements. It analyses developments and trends of business cycle co-movements among EU member countries, USA and EU members, China and its trade partners. It also studies chansmission channels and effects of international business cycle co-movements.
Chapter4, theoretical model of international economic policy coordination. Itrefers measurement and methods on welfare of monetary policy internationalcoordination as Canzoneri et al.(2005), indroduces asymmetry of uncertainty ofshocks basing on practice, constructs a two-country-three-sector theoretical model ofinternational monetary policy coordination, and discusses welfare under differenthypothesis and optimal monetary policy.
Chapter5, mechanism analysis of monetary policy international coordination. Itspecifies final objectives, medium objectives, instruments and chansmissionmechanisms of monetary policy in open economy, analyses internationalchansmission mechanisms of monetary policy under different exchange rate regime,further discusses functional orientation and mechanism design of monetary policyinternational coordination, which provides some reference for design monetary policyinternational coordination under new environment.
Chapter6, welfare effects of monetary policy coordinatione betwdeen China and USA. It investgates internal effects and spillover effects of monetary policy of Chinaand USA after financial crisis using SVAR and impulse response function, and furtherexplores welfare effects of monetary policy coordination of China and USA onbusiness cycle co-movements and consumptiom co-movements.
Chapter7, practical performance and assessment of monetary policycoordination of China and USA after financial crisis. It introduces influence offinancial crisis and policy measures of China and USA, and makes assessments onresults and problems of monetary policy coordination between two countries.
Chapter8, conclusions and suggestions. It summaries important conclusions andmakes several suggestions on monetary policy coordination between China and USA,and on China’s participation in monetary policy international coordination.
引文
12本小结参阅了姜波克，杨长江.国际金融学[M].北京：高等教育出版社，2004：311-317
13参阅了姜波克，杨长江.国际金融学[M].北京：高等教育出版社，2004：323-324
14参阅了姜波克，杨长江.国际金融学[M].北京：高等教育出版社，2004：325-326
15参阅了姜波克，杨长江.国际金融学[M].北京：高等教育出版社，2004：327-329
[1] Alfaro, L. Foreign direct investment and growth: does the sector matter?[J/OL].,2003
[2] Alfaro, L.&Charlton A. Growth and the quality of foreign direct investment: is allFDI equal?[R]. CEP Discussion Paper,2007, No.830
[3] Ambler, S., Cardia E.&Zimmermann, C.International transmission of thebusiness cycle in a multi-sector model[J].European Economic Review,2002,46:273-300
[4] Andersen, M.T. Fiscal policy coordination and international trade[J]. Economica,2007,74:235-257
[5] Anderson, H.M., Kwark, S.H.&Vahid, F. Does international trade synchronizebusiness cycles[R]. Monash University，Working Paper,1999, No.8/99
[6] Anderson, J.&Wincoop, van.E. Gravity with gravitas: a seolutiodn to the borderpuzzle[J]. The American Economic Review,2003,93:170-192
[7] Backus, D.K., Kehoe, J.P.&Kydland, E.F. International real business cycles[J].Journal of Political Economy,1992,100:745-775
[8] Backus, D.K., Kehoe, J.P.&Kydland, E.F. International business cycles: theoryand evidence[R]. NBER Working Paper,1993, No.4493
[9] Backus, D.K., Kehoe, J.P.&Kydland, E.F. Dynamics of the trade balance and theterms of trade: the J-curve?[J]. The American Economic Review,1994,84:85-101
[10] Barrell, R., DUury, Knaren&R Hurset, Iang. Inteirnsationtal emonertary policy coordination:an evaluation using a large econometric model[J]. Economic Modelling,2003,20:507-527
[11] Basu, P.&Thoenissen, C. Investment frictions and the relative price ofinvestment goods in an open economy model[J]. Centre for DynamicMacroeconomic Analysis, Working Paper,2008, No.0704
[12] Baxter, M. International trade and business cycles[R]. NBER Working Paper,1995, No.5025
[13] Baxter, M.&Koupiratsas, A. M. Trade structure, industrial structure, andinternational business cycles[J]. The American Economic Review,2003,93(2):51-56
[14] Baxter, M.&Koupiratsas, A. M. Determinants of business cycle comovement: arobust analysis[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2005,52:113-157
[15] Baxter, M.&King, D.R. Measuring business cycles: approximate band-passfilters for economic time series[R]. NBER Working Papers,1995, No.5022
[16] Benigno, Gianluca&Benigno, Pierpaolo. Design targeting rules for internationalmonetary policy cooperation[R]. ECB Working Paper,2005, No.279
[17] Benigno, P. A simple approach to international monetary policy coordination[J].Journal of International Economics,2002,57:177-196
[18] Berger, W.&Wagner, H. International policy coordination and simple monetarypolicy rules[R]. IMF Working Paper,2006, No.164
[19] Bergstrom, T., Blume, L.&Varian, H. On the private provision of publicgoods[J]. Journal of Public Economics,1986,29:25-49
[20] Beveridge, S.&Nelson, R.C. A new approach to decompeositiodn of economictime series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention tomeasurement of ‘business cycle’[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1981,7:151-174
[21] Boileau, M. Trade in capital goods and investment-specific technical change[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2002,26:963-984
[22] Borensztein, E., Gregorio, De J.&Lee, J-W. How does foreign direct investmentaffect economic growth?[J]. Journal of International Economics,1998,45:115-135
[23] Buiter, Willem H.&Marston, C.Richard. International Economic PolicyCoordination[M]. London: Cambridge University Press,1985
[24] Burns, A.F.&Mitchell, C.W. Measuring Business Cycles[M]. New York: NBER,1946
[25] Burstein, A.,U Kurz, nC.&RTesar, eL.Tragde, priodsuctitone sharirng, and the internationaltransmission of business cycles[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2008,55:775-795
[26] Calderon, C., Chong, A.&Stein, E. Trade intensity and business cyclesynchronization: are developing countries any different?[R]. ResearchDevelopment of Inter-American Development Bank, Working Paper,2003,No.478
[27] Calderon, C., Chong, A.&Stein, E. Trade intensity and business cyclesynchronization: are developing countries any different?[J]. Journal ofInternational Economics,2007,71:2-21
[28] Canova, F.&Dellas, H. Trade interdependence and the international businesscycle[J]. Journal of International Economics,1993,34:23-47
[29] Cantor, R.&Mark, C.N. The international transmission of real business cycles[J].International Economic Review,1988,29:493-507
[30] Canzoneri, Matthew&Gray, Joanna. Monetary policy games and theconsequences of non-cooperative behavior[J]. International Economic Review,1985,26(3):547-564
[31] Canzoneri, B.M., Cumby, Robert&Diba, Behzad. The need for internationalpolicy coordination: what’s old, what’s new, what’s yet to come?[J]. Journal ofInternational Economics,2005,66:363-384
[32] Cerqueira, P.A.&Martins, R. Measuring the determinants of business cyclesynchronization using a panel approach[J]. Economics Letters,2009,102:106-108
[33] Choe, J. An impact of economic integration through trade: oen busdiness cycles for10East Asian countries[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,2001,12:569-586
[34] Christiano, L.J., Eichenbaum, M.&Evans, L.C. Modeling Money[R]. NBERWorking Paper,1998, No.6371
[35] Clarida, R., Gali, J.&Gertler, M. A simple framework for international monetarypolicy analysis[R]. NBER Working Paper,2001, No.8870
[36] Clark, E.T.&Wincoop, van.E. Borders and business cycles[J]. Journal ofInternational Economics,2001,55:59-85
[37] Cooper, R． The economics of interdependence[M]. London: ColumbiaUniversity Press,1968
[38] Corsetti, Giancarlo&Pesenti, Paolo. Welfare and macroeconomicinterdependeUnce[J].n QuarRterly Joeurnagl of Eicosnomticse,200r1,116:421-445
[39] Croux, C., Forni, M.&Reichlin, L. A measure of comovement for economicvariables: theory and empirics[J]. The Review of Economics and Statistics,2001,83(2),232-241
[40] Currie, David&Levine, Paul. Macroeconomic policy design in aninterdependent world[M]. In Buiter, Willem H.&Marston, C.Richard.International Economic Policy Coordination. London: Cambridge UniversityPress,1985,228-273
[41] Devereux, Michael B.&Arman, Mansoorian. International fiscal policycoordination and economic growth[J]. International Economic Review,1992,33:249-268
[42] Devereux, B.Michael&Engel, Charles. Monetary policy in the open economyrevisited: price setting and exchange rate flexibility[J]. NBER Working Paper,2000, No.7665
[43] Dorbush, R. Expectations and exchange rate dynamics[J]. Journal of PolicyEconomy,1976,84:1161-1176
[44] Ernawati, M.&Samaun, M.S. Business cycle transmission between the USA andIndonesia: a vector error correction model[R]. MPRA Working Paper,2005,No.15
[45] Fidrmuc, J. The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria, intraindustrytrade，and EMU enlargement[R]. BOFIT Discussion Papers,2001, No.8
[46] Fidrmuc, J.&Korhonen, I. The impact of the global financial crisis on businesscycles in Asian emerging economies[J]. Journal of Asian Economics,2010,21:293-303
[47] Fortanier, F. Foreign direct investment and host country economic growth: doesthe investor’s country of origin play a role?[J]. Transnational Corporations,2007,16(2):42-76ed
[48] Frankel, J.A.&Rose, K.A. Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?[J].European Economic Review,1997,41:753-760
[49] Frankel, A. J.&Rose, K.A. The endogeneity of the optimum currency areacriteria[J]. The Economic Journal,1998,108(July):1009-1025
[50] Fratianni, M.&Pattison, J. The economics of international organizations[J].Kyklos,1982,35(2):244-262
[51] Fratianni, M.&Pattison, J. International organizations in a world of regionaltrade agreements: lessons from club theory[J]. World Economy,2001,2:333-358
[52] Ganelli, GioUvanni. nUsefuRl goveernmegnt spiensdingt, deirect rcrowding-out and fiscalpolicy interdependence[J]. Journal of International Money and Finance,2003,22:87–103
[53] Gaspar, Vitor&Schinasi, Garry. Financial stability and policy cooperation[R].Banco de Pprtugal Eurosystem, Occasional Papers,2010, No.1
[54] Goncalves, C., Rodrigues, M.&Soares, T. Correlation of business cycles in theeuro zone[J]. Economics Letters,2009,102:56-58
[55] Gross, D. Trade flows and the international business cycle[R]. CFS WorkingPaper,2001, No.12
[56] Gruben, W.C., Koo, J.&Eric, M. How much does international trade affectbusiness cycle synchronization[R]. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, ResearchDepartment Working Paper,2002, No.0203
[57] Hamada, K. A strategic analysis of monetary interdependence[J]. The Journal ofPolitical Economy,1976,84(4):677-700
[58] Helliwell, J. Do national borders matter for Quebec’s trade?[J]. Canadian Journalof Economics,1996,29(3):507-522
[59] Hodrick, R.&Prescott, E.C. Post-war US business cycles: an empiricalinvestigation[M]. Mimeo, Pittsbursh: Carnegie-Mellon University,1980
[60] Huang, X.D.K.&Liu, Zheng. Business cyclyes with staggered prices andinternational trade in intermediate inputs[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2007,54:1271-1289
[61] Hummels, D., Ishii, J.&Yi, K.M. The nature and growth of verticalspecialization in world trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,2001,54:75-96
[62] Imbs, J. Trade, finance, specialization and synchronization[R]. IMF WorkingPaper,2003, No.81
[63] Jansen, W.J.&Stockman, C.J. Foreign direct investmeent andd internationalbusiness cycle comovement[R]. European Central Bank, Working Paper,2004,No.401
[64] Jeffrey, A. Frankel&Rockett, A．Katharine. International macroeconomicpolicies coordination when policy—makers disagree on the model[R]. NBERWorking Paper,1986, No.2059
[65] Johnson, Harry Gordon. Optimum tariffs and retaliatiom[J]. Review of EconomicStudies,1953,21:142-53
[66] Kawai, Masahiro&Petri, A. Peter. Asia’s role in the global economicarchitecture[UR]. ADnBI WRorkinge Papegrs,20i10s, Not.23e5
[67] Kenen, P. The theory of optimum currency areas: an eclerctic view[]. In Mundell,R.&Swoboda, A.(eds), Monetary problems in the international economy,Chicago: University of Chicago Press,1969
[68] Khan, S.F. A two-sector international real business cycles model withinvestment-specific technology shocks[J/OL].,2008
[69] Koenig, Gilbert&Zeyneloglu, Irem. Efficiency and coordination of fiscal policyin open economies[R]. BETA Working Papers,2006, No.09
[70] Kose, M.A.&Yi, M.K. International trade and business cycle: is verticalspecialization the missing link?[J]. The American Economic Review,2001,91:371-375
[71] Kose, M.A.&Yi, K.M. Can the standard international business cycle modelexplain the relation between trade and comovement?[J]. Journal of InternationalEconomics,2006,68:267-295
[72] Krugman, P. Lessons of massachusetts for EMU[M]. in Giavazzi, F.&Torres, F.(eds). The transition to Economic and Monetary Union in Europe, London:Cambridge University Press,1993
[73] Kumakura, M. Trade and business cycle co-movements in Asia-Pacific[J].Journal of Asian Economics,2006,17:622-645
[74] Kydland, F.E.&Prescott, C.E. Time to build and aggregate fluctuations[J].Econometrica,1982,50:1345-1370
[75] Lawrence, R.Z. Challenge of aligning mission, means and legitimacy[J]. WorldEconomy,2008,31:1455-1470
[76] Lee, G.H.Y.&Azali, M. The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteriain East Asia[R]. Monash University, Discussion Paper,2009, No.15/09
[77] Loayza, N., Lopez, H.&Ubide A. Comovements and sectoeral indterdependence:evidence for Latin America, East Asia, and Europe[R]. IMF Staff Papers,2001,48(2):367-396
[78] Lombardo, Giovanni&Sutherland, Alan. Monetary and fiscal interactions inopen economies[R]. ECB Working Paper,2003, No.289
[79] Lucas, R.E.Jr. Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1982,10:335-360
[80] Maria, V.C.&Ross, L. Does foreign direct investment accelerate economicgrowth?[R]. U of Minnesota Department of Finance Working Paper,2002,(june)
[81] McCallum, UJ. Natnional Rbordere matgter: Ciasnadat-UeS regrional trade patterns[J].American Economic Review,1995,85:615-623
[82] McIntyre, K.H. Can non-traded goods solve the comovement problem?[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2003,25:169-196
[83] McKinnon, R. Optimum currency areas[J]. The American Economic Review,1963,53:717-724
[84] McKibbin, J.Warwick, Empirical evidence on international economic policycoordination[M]. in Fratianni, M., Salvatore, D.&Hagen, von.J.(ed).Macroeconomic policy in open economies, London: Greenwood Press,1997,148-176
[85] Miller, Marcus&Salmon, Mark. Policy coordination and dynamic games[M]. InBuiter, Willem H.&Marston, C.Richard. International Economic PolicyCoordination. London: Cambridge University Press,1985,184-227
[86] Moneta, F.&Ruffer, R. Business cycle synchronization in East Asia[J]. Journalof Asian Economics,2009,20:1-12
[87] Ng, E.C.Y. Vertical specialization, intra-industry trade and business cyclecomovement[J/OL].,2007
[88] Obstfeld, M.&Rogoff, K. Exchange rate dynamics redux[J]. The Journal ofPolitical Economy,1995,103(3):624-660
[89] Obstfeld, M.&Rogoff, K. Risk and exchange rates[R]. NBER Working Paper,1998, No.6694
[90] Obstfeld, M.&Rogoff, K. New directions for stochastic open economymodels[J]. Journal of International Economics,2000,50:117–153
[91] Obstfeld, M.&Rogoff, K. Global implications of self-oriented nationalmonetary rules[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2002,117(2):503-535
[92] Olson, Mancur&Zeckhauser, Richard. An economic theeory dof alliances[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1966,48:266-279
[93] Otto, G., Voss, G.&Willard, L. Understanding OECD output correlations[R].Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Paper,2001, No.05
[94] Peren, K. Arin&Jolly, P. Sam. Trans-tasman transmission of monetary shocks:evidence from a VAR approach[J]. Atlantic Economic Journal,2005,33:267-283
[95] Prasad, S.E. International trade and business cycle[R]. IMF Working Paper,1999,No.56
[96] Rana, B.P. TUrade inntensiRty and ebusingess ciycsle sytncehronirzation: the case of EastAsian countries[J]. The Singapore Economic Review,2008,53(2):279-292
[97] Renato, E.&Reside, Jr. International transmission of US monetary policy shocks:VAR evidence from the Philippines[R]. UPSE Discussion Paper,2004, No.0405
[98] Sachs, J. International policy coordination in a dynamic macroeconomicmodel[R]. NBER Working Paper,1983, No.1166
[99] Sanchez, M. What drives business cycles and international trade in emergingmarket economies?[R]. European Central Bank, Working Paper,2007, No.730
[100] Scitovsky, Tibor. A reconsideration of the theory of tariffs[J]. Review ofEconomic Studies,1942,9(summer):89-110
[101] Shin, K.&Wang, J.Y. Trade integration and business cycle synchronization inEast Asia[R]. Korea Institute for International Economic Policy Working Paper,2003, No.03/01
[102] Shin, K.&Wang, J.Y. Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: thecase of Korea with other Asian countries[J]. Japan and the World Economy,2004,16:213-230
[103] Stephanie, S.G. The international transmission of economic fluctuations: effectsof U.S. business cycles on the Canadian economy[J]. Journal of InternationalEconomics,1998,44:257-287
[104] Soyoung, Kim. International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks:evidence from VAR’s[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,2001,48:339-372
[105] Stockman, A.C. International transmission and real business cycle models[J].The American Economic Review,1990,80:134-138
[106] Stockman, A.C.&Tesar, L.L. Tastes and technology in a two-country model ofthe business cycle: explaining international comovements[J]. The AmericanEconomic Review,1995,85:168-185
[107] Sutherland, A. International monetary policy coordination eand fdinancial marketintegration[R]. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, InternationalFinance Discussion Papers,2002, No.751
[108] Suzuki, Motoshi. Economic interdependence，relative gains，and internationalcooperation: the case of monetary policy coordination[J]. International StudiesQuarterly,1994,38:475-498
[109] Tille, C. The role of consumption substitutability in the internationaltransmission of shocks”，Federal Reserve Bank of New-York Staff Report,1999,No.67
[110] Tomasz, KoUzluk&n AarRon, Meehrotgra. Thies imptacte of Crhinese monetary policyschocks on East Asia[R]. BOFIT Discussion Papers,2008, No.5
[111] Torres, A.&Vela, O. Trade integration and synchronization between thebusiness cycles of Mexico and the United States[J]. North American Journal ofEconomic and Finance,2003,14:319-342
[112] Turnovsky, J.S., Basar, T.&d’Orey, Vasco. Dynamic strategic monetarypolicies and coordination in interdependent economies[J]. The AmericanEconomic Review,1988,78(3):341-361
[113] Warnock, F. Idiosyncratic tastes in a two-country optimizing model:implications of standard presumption[R]. Board of Governors of Federal ReserveSystem International Finance Discussion Papers,1998, No.631
[114] Williamson, J. Crises and international policy coordination[J]. FFD, DESA,2008, March
[115] Wu, J.Y., Yau, R.&Hsu, C.C. Foreign direct investment and business cycleco-movements: the panel data evidence[J/OL].,2009
[116]白当伟.全球化的新进展与货币政策国际协调[J].国际金融研究，2010（5）：4-10
[117]保罗·R·克鲁格曼（Paul·R·Krugman），茅瑞斯·奥伯斯法尔德（MauriceObstfeld）著，海闻、潘圆圆、张卫华、于扬杰等译.国际经济学：理论与政策（第六版）[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2006
[118]卜永祥，靳炎.中国实际经济周期：一个基本解释和理论扩展[J].世界经济，2002（7）：3-11，80
[119]岑丽君，程惠芳.中美货币政策国际协调的福利收益—e—基d于NOEM框架的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究，2012（6）
[120]车维汉，贾利军.国际贸易冲击效应与中国宏观经济波动：1978-2005[J].世界经济，2008（4）：25-36
[121]陈继勇，吴宏，刘威.美国货币政策的国际传递效应及其对世界经济失衡的影响[J].第四届中国经济学博士后论坛，2009：332-348
[122]陈昆亭，龚六堂.实际经济周期理论的最新发展[J].经济学动态，2007（4）：
[123]陈昆亭，龚六堂，邹恒甫.什么造成了经济增长的波动，供给还是需求：中国经济的RBC分析[J].世界经济，2004（4）：3-11，80
[124]陈磊.中国转轨时期经济增长周期的基本特征及其解释模型[J].管理世界，2002（12）：6-14
[125]陈涛.金融危机时期中美货币政策的比较[J].亚太经济，2010（4）：77-82
[126]陈云.国际U宏观经n济学R的新方e法：gNOiEMs-DStGeE模r型[J].经济学家，2010（2）：38-45
[127]程惠芳.对外直接投资与宏观经济的内外均衡发展[J].经济研究，1998（9）：57-61，69
[128]程惠芳.国际直接投资与开放型内生经济增长[J].经济研究，2002（10）：71-78，96
[129]程惠芳，岑丽君. FDI、产业结构与国际经济周期协动性[J].经济研究，2010（9）：17-28
[130]崔建军.货币政策有效性研究述评[J].经济学家，2004（2）：101-107
[131]崔晓燕.东亚最适度通货区内生标准的检验——贸易与经济周期相关性的视角[J].金融理论与实践，2008（11）：41-47
[132]杜婷.国际贸易冲击与中国经济的周期波动[J].国际贸易问题，2006（12）：12-17
[133]范从来，刘晓辉.开放经济条件下货币政策分析框架的选择[J].经济理论与经济管理，2008（3）：5-11
[134]耿强，蒋曦.实际商业周期理论的最新发展[J].经济理论与经济管理，2004（12）：67-72
[135]龚刚.实际商业周期：理论、检验与争议[J].经济学季刊，2004（4）：785-802
[136]胡庆康.现代货币银行学教程[M]．上海：复旦大学出版社，2009
[137]黄金竹.论国际经济政策协调[J].财经科学，2004（4）：81-84
[138]黄梅波.宏观经济政策协调的进展和成效：回顾和展望[J].世界经济，2004（3）：76-79
[139]黄梅波，陈燕鸿.当前金融危机下的国际宏观经济政策协调[J].世界经济与政治论坛，2009（2）：15-21
[140]黄梅波，胡建梅.国际宏观经济政策协调与G20机制化e[J].国d际论坛，2011（1）：52-56
[141]黄梅波，胡建梅.中国参与国际宏观经济政策协调的收益分析[J].经济经纬，2010（6）：41-45
[142]姜波克，杨长江.国际金融学[M]．北京：高等教育出版社，2004
[143]经济增长前沿课题组.国际资本流动、经济扭曲与宏观稳定——当前经济增长态势分析[J].经济研究，2005（4）：4-16
[144]栗书茵.国际金融学[M]．北京：机械工业出版社，2006
[145]李浩，胡永刚，马知遥.国际贸易与中国的实际经济周期——基于封闭与开放经济的RBC模型比较分析[J].经济研究，2007（5）：17-26，41
[146]李浩，钟昌标.贸易顺差与中国的实际经济周期分析：基于开放的RBC模型的研究[J]U.世界n经济，R2008e（9）g：60-i65
[147]李小娟.货币政策国际协调[M]．北京：s经济t科e学出r版社，2006
[148]李小娟.开放经济下货币政策国际传导机制分析[J].经济问题，2009（8）：15-18
[149]李永刚.美国量化宽松货币政策影响及中国对策[J].财经科学，2011（4）：1-8
[150]李增来.总需求冲击下的国际货币政策协调研究[J].财经问题研究，2010（3）:126-129
[151]李增来，梁东黎.美国货币政策对中国经济动态冲击效应研究——SVAR模型的一个应用[J].经济与管理研究，2011（3）：77-83
[152]林峰.新开放经济宏观经济学货币政策理论研究的新发展[J].经济学动态，2010（7）：141-145
[153]刘崇仪.经济周期论[M]．北京：人民出版社，2006
[154]刘春晖，蹇明.国际货币政策协调的随机模型分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究，2004（11）：5-13
[155]刘恒，陈述云.中国经济周期波动的新态势[J].管理世界，2003（3）：5-16
[156]刘金全.宏观经济冲击的作用机制与传导机制研究[J].经济学动态，2002（4）：15-19
[157]刘金全，张鹤.经济增长风险的冲击传导和经济周期波动的“溢出效应”[J].经济研究，2003（10）：32-39，91
[158]刘金全，郑挺国.我国货币政策冲击对实际产出周期波动的非对称影响分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究，2006（10）：3-14
[159]刘其文.经济政策的运用·经济政策卷[M]．河南：河南人民出版社，2007
[160]刘胜会.金融危机中美联储的货币政策工具创新及启e示[Jd].国际金融研究，2009（8）：10-16
[161]陆荣，王曦.应对国际金融危机的货币政策效果[J].国际金融研究，2010（7）：19-29
[162]罗伯特·J·凯伯（Robert J.Carbaugh）著，原毅军等译.国际经济学[M]．北京：机械工业出版社，2005
[163]罗斐，庄起善.贸易强度对东亚国家和地区经济波动同步性的影响[J].世界经济研究，2005（2）：20-25
[164]罗华荣，罗大庆.实际经济周期理论面临的新挑战[J].经济学动态，2004（9）：85-88
[165]马红霞，孙雪芬.金融危机时期美联储货币政策效果研究[J].世界经济研究，2011（2）8-12，19，87
[166]马君实，沈U尤佳.n各国R经济周e期的g非同i时s性及t其e国际r传递机制研究——美国次级债危机的全球联动对我国的启示[J].经济问题探索，2008（10）：161-166
[167]聂雪峰，刘传哲.我国货币政策通过国际贸易传递的实证分析[J].财贸研究，2004（5）：31-48
[168]宁昌会，毛传阳.国际宏观经济理论的微观基础[J].经济学动态，2002（8）：69-74
[169]彭芸.金融危机背景下非常规性货币政策的实施与退出[J].经济问题，2010（12）：98-102
[170]秦朵.外贸与金融传染效应在多大程度上导致了韩国1997年的货币危机？[J].世界经济，2000（8）：8-18
[171]冉生欣，王品玲.论不对称总需求冲击下的货币政策博弈与汇率稳定[J].经济研究，2007（10）：68-81
[172]任志祥，宋玉华.论经济全球化下的中国经济波动与世界经济周期[J].技术经济，2004（3）：15-17
[173]任志祥，宋玉华.我国与东亚区域内贸易及经济周期的协动性研究[J].国际贸易问题，2004（5）：34-37
[174]任志祥，宋玉华.中外产业内贸易与经济周期协动性的关系研究[J].统计研究，2004（5）：17-20
[175]施发启.中国经济周期实证分析[J].统计研究，2000（7）：59-62
[176]宋玉华.世界经济周期理论与实证研究[M]．北京：商务印书馆，2007
[177]宋玉华.外生冲击对中国经济增长周期的影响[J].经济学家，2004（1）：31-36
[178]宋玉华，方建春.中国与世界经济波动的相关性研究[J].财贸经济，2007（1）：104-110
[179]宋玉华，高莉.世界经济周期的贸易传导机制[J].世界经济研究，2007（3）：19-25ed
[180]宋玉华，吴聃.从国际经济周期理论到世界经济周期理论[J].经济理论与经济管理，2006（3）：23-30
[181]宋玉华，徐前春.世界经济周期理论的文献述评[J].世界经济，2004（6）：66-76
[182]苏奎，董恩刚.经济学原理[M]．四川：电子科技大学出版社，2008
[183]孙磊，王志伟.基德兰德-普雷斯科特与实际经济周期理论[J].经济学动态，2004（11）：71-75
[184]孙立坚，孙立行.对外开放和经济波动的关联性检验——中国和东亚新兴市场国家的案U例[J]n.经济R研究e，20g05（6i）s：69t-8e1
[185]孙明华.我国货币政策传导机制的实证分析[J].财经r研究，2004（3）：19-30
[186]孙阳.贸易模式、贸易密度与经济周期协动性——对中国及其主要贸易国的实证研究[J].世界经济情况，2009（1）：27-30
[187]汤铎铎.从西斯蒙第到普雷斯科特——经济周期理论200年[J].经济理论与经济管理，2008（8）：24-28
[188]汤铎铎.新方法经济宏观经济学：理论和问题[J].世界经济，2009（9）：37-55
[189]唐文琳，范祚军，马进.中国——东盟自由贸易区成员国经济政策协调研究[M]．广西：广西人民出版社，2006
[190]唐宜红.亚洲经济波动的传递与我国的对策分析[J].财贸经济，1998（11）：48-52
[191]王叙果，陆凯旋.国际货币政策协调收益的研究现状及述评[J].世界经济与政治论坛，2009（4）：26-31
[192]王胜，彭鑫瑶.不对称价格粘性下的货币政策和福利效应[J].世界经济，2010（5）：101-117
[193]王悦.对外贸易变动对东亚经济周期同步性影响的计量分析[J].亚太经济，2007（1）：6-11
[194]伍戈.经济周期波动的国际传导与宏观经济政策[J].经济与管理研究，2006（8）：55-59
[195]吴军，张弼.金融危机中国际货币政策协调的有效性分析[J].金融发展研究，2010（5）：3-8
[196]吴照银.中美经济政策的传导[J].国际金融研究，2003（3）：18-21
[197]项松林.国际货币政策对中国贸易顺差影响研究[J].财e贸研d究，2010（5）：32-39
[198]辛清.国际金融学[M]．天津：天津人民出版社，2008
[199]熊豪，李天德，王岳龙.世界大国经济波动对中国经济影响的贸易传导机制研究——以东盟为例基于面板数据的贸易传导机制分析[J].世界经济与政治论坛，2009（3）：58-64
[200]徐茂魁，陈丰，吴应宁.后金融危机时代中国货币政策的两难选择——抑制通货膨胀还是保持经济增长[J].财贸经济，2010（4）：20-25
[201]严志辉，宋玉华.北美自由贸易区经济周期协动性的实证研究[J].技术经济，2008（3）：7-14
[202]杨立岩，王新丽.实际经济周期理论研究新进展[J].经济学动态，2004（2）：32-35，43
[203]姚长辉.货U币银行n学[MR]．北e京：g北京i大s学出t版e社，r2002
[204]尹继志.开放经济条件下的货币政策国际协调[J].上海金融，2008（12）：36-41，7
[205]尹继志.美联储应对金融危机的货币政策操作与效果[J].财经科学，2009（9）：1-10
[206]喻旭兰.经济周期同步性与东亚金融合作的可行性研究[J].经济研究，2007（10）：82-94
[207]喻旭兰.中国与东盟国家经济周期同步性的实证分析[J].广州大学学报（自然科学版），2008（2）：65-70
[208]袁鹰.国际货币政策协调能带来社会福利的增加吗？[J].上海金融，2007（3）：60-64
[209]袁志刚.国际经济学[M]．北京：高等教育出版社，2000
[210]翟志成.经济周期理论与中国当前宏观经济走势[J].经济学家，2001（2）：14-18
[211]张兵.论东亚地区经济周期的同期性[J].亚太经济，2002（5）：1-2
[212]张兵.区域内贸易在中国与东盟经济周期同步波动中的作用分析[J].亚太经济，2006（6）：40-43
[213]张兵.中美经济周期的同步性及其传导机制分析[J].世界经济研究，2006（10）：31-38
[214]张成思.货币政策传导机制研究新前沿——全球新型金融危机视角下的理论述评[J].国际经济评论，2010（5）：110-120
[215]章和杰，陈威吏.扩张财政政策对内外均衡的影响分析——基于篮子货币汇率制度下的蒙代尔-弗莱明模型[J].统计研究，2008（10）：26-33
[216]章和杰，阮明烽.现代货币银行学[M]．北京：中国社会e科学d出版社，2004
[217]张军，桂林.中国的经济发展如何影响了全球经济：基于经济学文献的答案[J].世界经济，2008（8）：3-19
[218]张亦春，胡晓.非常规货币政策探讨及金融危机下的实践[J].国际金融研究，2010（3）：27-33
[219]张幼文.世界经济学[M]．上海：上海财经大学出版社，2006
[220]赵海英，刘金全.外国直接投资与我国经济增长之间的关联性分析[J].中国经济与管理科学，2008（7）：1-2，9