摘要
结合混凝土坝施工过程仿真研究现状，从系统分析、建模、模型评价、模型优化、参数确定、敏感性分析和仿真结果评价等多角度进行混凝土坝施工系统仿真研究，论文主要研究工作和研究成果如下：
（1）从系统分析、建模及模型评价角度全面地对混凝土坝施工过程仿真理论与方法进行研究。重点提出了大坝的动态分层思想及方法、模型参数的系统划分原则与确定方法、模型参数的敏感性分析方法、以及采用可视化技术辅助模型的V&V评价，解决了传统建模理论不完善，模型精度不高等问题，确保了仿真模型对原型系统描述的可靠性，及仿真结果的有效性，提高了系统研究水平，最终保障了仿真结果用于辅助决策的科学性与有效性。
（2）运用随机过程理论深层探讨了系统运行过程中筑块浇筑过程的空间状态转移及其转移概率问题。通过仿真稳态次数的计算及对运行过程筑块浇筑活动的空间转移特征的描述，获得并构造了筑块转移的空间网络及其转移概率，解决了系统仿真过程潜在的深层问题，使其浇筑过程可以实现网络化、数值化描述，为施工过程的决策提供了有效的辅助决策手段。
（3）提出了大坝施工仿真计算多目标决策理论与方法。通过对系统研究方案及其评判体系的构造，以及提出相应的权值与指标的量化方法，解决了混凝土坝施工仿真中多方案综合评判问题。在此基础上，深入剖析基于随机因素影响条件下的系统仿真结果对原型系统描述问题，运用多目标综合评判方法及模糊数学理论，使任一次仿真结果对系统描述的效果都能用数值手段来评价。运用模型与供料机械配置方案的联合优化方法，解决了系统简化建模带来的模型精度不高问题，同时使供料机械设置方案得到优化配置，更科学、高效地辅助施工组织设计。
（4）在大坝施工仿真系统中引入专家系统模式，解决了在仿真系统中需要由领域专家参与才能高效解决的模糊性问题，提高了大坝施工仿真系统的智能水平。
（5）提出了大坝施工仿真系统与GIS系统集成框架及实现方法，研制并开发了大坝施工可视化仿真系统DamVSIS。利用该系统实现了对拉西瓦拱坝及糯扎渡重力坝浇筑过程仿真的成功应用。
After fully considerate the actuality of the methodology and its application on concrete dam construction process with simulation technology, the author take this paper from the system analysis, modeling, model evaluation and optimization, parameters determination and its sensitivity analysis, and multi-cases evaluation to deeply research the construction system simulation, which is the first time study on the concrete dam construction process simulation roundly and systemically. The main contents and achievements of the thesis are summarized as follows:
Fully study the theories and methods of the concrete dam construction process with simulation technology from its system analysis, modeling and its validity evaluation. The primary work of this paper we discuss is the ideology and methods of dam block layer-split dynamically in the process of model operation, the methods to determine parameters to evaluate its sensitivity, and how the visual technology can greatly help the verification and validation of system model validity. With all the work done the problems that lead to the modeling theories faultiness and its model precision deficiency can be solved effectively, thus the reliability of built-model describing the original system can be enhanced, which can further make the simulation results more credible, and finally help the decision makers make their decision more efficiently and scientifically.
Deeply discuss the spatial states transfer of dam blocks pouring activities and its probabilities with the stochastic theory. After calculating the stable times of the simulation operations and depicting the characteristic of the spatial states transfer of dam blocks pouring activities, we can obtaining and building the network of dam blocks pouring activities with its spatial state transfer and its probabilities, which can not only help the detection of the model logic errors, but also make the dam blocks pouring process being depicted with the network and numeral methods, which provide the impactful means for the decision makers of their decision making in the dam construction process. .
Advance the multi-objectives decision theories and methods for the concrete dam construction process simulation. The assessment of multi-objectives results is more effective by constructing system simulation schemes and its evaluation system, together with providing quantificational methods of their weight and indicators. Based on the system research, the author further discusses the simulation results of its
representative to the original system with every time operation under the effect of stochastic factors; using the methods of multi-objectives assessment and the theory of fuzzy sets, finally makes each time system operation be given a concrete weight value of its results to depict the real system’s behaviors. In the following section of this thesis, the author associates the system model with the schemes design of concrete supplying machines for their mutual optimization activities, not only resolves the problem of model deficiency but also helps the optimization of concrete supplying machines configuration, ultimately makes the construction organization design more efficiently and scientifically.
Dam simulation system is an discrete-event system, there are many uncertain factors hard to be quantified during the modeling process, which can affect the model’s validity, however, the expert system can be helpful solving this issue. In this section, we discuss how the simulation system and expert system are combined to make the simulation system more efficiently.
Introduce the DamVSIS system, the integration of calculating system and the 3D visualization system developed by VC++ and GIS separately. The integration methods and system functions are also introduced followed by the details of two successfully applied actual hydropower projects, i.e., the Laxiwa arch dam and Nuozadu gravity dam.
引文
孙锡衡, 齐东海. 水利水电工程施工计算机模拟与程序设计[M].北京：中国水利电力出版社,1997
钟登华, 郑家祥，刘东海，张伟波. 可视化仿真技术及其应用[M]. 北京:中国水利水电出版社. 2002
朱光熙. 二滩水电站双曲拱坝混凝土浇注的计算机模拟[J].系统工程理论与实践.1985(3):25-32
孙锡衡,王仁超.土石坝施工过程的计算机模拟[J].水利水电技术.1990,(6):38-42
孙锡衡,钟登华.水工隧洞施工过程的计算机模拟和施工方案优选[J].水利水电技术.1990,(11):43-49
钟登华, 练继亮, 张宗亮等. 混凝土坝浇筑过程的仿真计算可视化研究[J]. 系统工程理论与实践. 2003,23(6):133-138
王正中.系统仿真浅说[J].自动化博览.2001:51-53.
何江华著. 计算机仿真导论[M]. 北京: 科学出版社，2001
李伯虎, 文传源. 系统仿真技术新动向[J]. 计算机仿真. 1996,13(3):3-5
W.Jurecha, R.Widmann. Optimization of Dam Concreting by Cable-Cranes. 11th International Congress on Large Dams, Vol. III, Q.43,R.12,1973
Osman Balci, Validation, Verification, and Testing techniques throughout the life cycle of a simulation study, Proceedings of the 1994 Winter Simulation Conference,215-220
Robert G. Sargent, Validation, Verification, and Accreditation of simulation models, Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference,50-59
Don Caughlin, an Integrated Approach to Validation, Verification, and Accreditation of models and simulations, Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference,872-881
Jack P.C. Kleijnen. Theory and Methodology Verification and Validation of simulation models. European Journal of Operational Research 82(1995) 145-162.
James M. Velayas, Reuven R. Levary. Validation of simulation models using decision theory. Simulation 1987,48(3):87-92
Jennifer Chew, Cindy Sullivan. Verification, validation, and Accreditation in the life cycle of models and simulations. Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference,813-818
Photios G. Ioannou and Julio Martinez. Animation of Complex Construction Simulation Models. Proceedings of the Third Congress on Computing in Civil Engineering, ASCE,1996，1-7
黄柯棣，查亚兵. 系统仿真可信性研究综述[J]. 系统仿真学报. 1997.9(1):4-9.
张伟，王行仁. 仿真可信度[J]. 系统仿真学报. 2001.13(3):312-314.
张冰，杨明等. 综合仿真系统可信度评估方案研究[J]. 系统仿真学报. 2000. 12(5):446-449.
王维平，朱一凡等. 仿真模型有效性确认与验证[M]. 国防科技大学出版社. 1998
徐迪. 基于相似理论的系统仿真可信性分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践. 2001(4):49-52.
Bo HuLi, Modeling & Simulation in China present and future. Asian Simulation Conf/the 5th int Conf. on system simulation and scientific computing(shanghai), Nov,3-6, 2002
Anbin Hu, Ye San, Zicai Wang. Verifying and validating a simulation model. Proceedings of the 2001 Winter simulation Conference. 595-599
王子才. 关于仿真理论的探讨[J]. 系统仿真学报. 2000. 12(6):604-608.
钟登华，练继亮. 水利水电工程仿真系统可信性评估研究[J]. 水力发电学报.2003,81(2):17-23
孟晓风, 王行仁. 建模与仿真的智能化、集成化发展综述[J]. 系统仿真学报. 96,8(增刊):1-5,16
李勇刚, 胡志根, 燕乔. 混凝土拱坝浇筑仿真的可视化技术研究[J]. 武汉水利电力大学学报.2000,33(1):33-36
夏大勇, 巫世晶, 彭卫平. GPSS仿真语言在缆机浇筑混凝土仿真系统中的应用[J]. 西北水电. 1998,(63):16-19
Halpin, D. W. (1976). CYCLONE—Methods for modeling job site processes. J. Constr. Div., ASCE, 103(3), 489–499.
Julio C. Martinez, Photios G. Ioannou. General purpose simulation with stroboscope. Proceedings of the 1998 Winter Simulation Conference,1159 – 1166
王正中. 复杂系统仿真方法及应用[J].计算机仿真.2001,18(1):3-6
文传源. 相似理论的探索[J].系统仿真学报. 1989(1):2-14
徐迪. 基于相似理论的系统仿真基本概念框架[J]. 系统工程理论与实践. 2000(8):58-61.
李元. 利用相似理论来指导建模[J]. 计算机仿真. 1999.16(1):49-51
柳世考,刘兴堂等. 利用相似理论进行仿真系统模型验证[J].计算机仿真.2001.18(6):1-3
郭巍,李云芝等. 用相似理论讨论仿真的可信度[J]. 系统仿真学报. 1999.10(2):113-115
肖位枢. 模糊数学基础及应用[M]. 北京: 航空工业出版社,1992.
熊光楞，肖田元，张燕云. 连续系统仿真与离散事件系统仿真[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社,1991
朱光熙，苑克伦.，葛晓东.系统模拟在水利水电工程施工中的应用. 天津大学水利系系统分析与管理教研室. 1990
冯惠军, 冯允成. 面向对象的仿真综述[J]. 系统仿真学报. 1995(9):58-64.
王云. 面向对象程序设计及其在系统仿真中的应用[J]. 计算机与现代化.2000(1):46-50
王继龙. 计算机科学领域的可视化技术[J]. 计算机与现代化. 2000（6）19-25.
李晓梅, 黄朝辉著.科学计算可视化导论[M].长沙:国防科技大学出版社,1996
熊光楞，刘义. 图形技术在系统仿真中的应用[J]. 计算机仿真. 1994,40(3):1-8
苑克伦. 混凝土坝浇筑施工系统的实时控制[硕士论文]. 天津大学,1989
张伟波. 大型地下洞室群施工系统仿真理论与应用研究[D]. 天津大学博士学位论文.2002
Davis, C.S.: Construction Project Simulation Effects of Weather, thesis presented to the university of Missouri, at Columbia, Mo., in 1972, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science
Neal B.H. Bonjamin and Theodore W. Greenwald: Simulating Effects of Weather on Construction. Journal of Construction Division, ASCE. Vol. 99, No. Col, July,1973
Robert I. Carr: Simulation of Construction Project Duration, ASCE., Vol. 105, No. C02, June, 1979
高土石坝施工组织优化的系统分析，天津大学水资源与港湾工程系，1988
刘嘉焜编著.应用随机过程[M].科学出版社.2000.3
俞国燕, 郑时雄, 黄平. 复杂工程设计综合评价系统研究[J].机械科学与技术.2001,20(1):4-6,9
史海珊,何似龙, 陈金水等. 水电工程建设系统综合评判方法[M]. 北京：水
利电力出版社. 1994
贾鸿勋, 王责令, 龚木森. 层次分析法在机械总体性能评价中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践. 1989,9(1):18-25
李景茹. 大型工程施工进度分析理论方法与应用[博士论文]. 天津大学，2003
缆机布置及选型设计专题报告. 国家电力公司西北勘测设计研究院. 西安, 2001
Oren T I, Zeigler B p. Artificial Intelligence in Modeling and Simulation. Directions to Explore. SIMULATION. 1987, 48(4),141-134
Rao M, Jiang T S Tsai J P. Integrated Intelligent Simulation Environment. SIMULATION, 1990,54(6),291-295
Merkuryeva G V, Merkuryev Y A. Knowledge Based Simulation Systems—A Review. SIMULATION , 1994,62(2),74-89
梁波, 刘可新等.专家仿真系统框架[J].西安公路交通大学学报.1996.16(2):130-133
李耀华.仿真中嵌入式专家系统[J].计算机仿真.1990,(3):1-5
龚宇, 熊光楞. 仿真系统与专家系统结合方式分类方法的研究[J]. 系统仿真学报. 1996(8):51-58
江华, 陶菲. 基于知识的仿真系统的研究与实现[J]. 计算机仿真. 1992,(3):44-49
朱光熙, 钟登华等.专家系统在工程建设中的应用与展望[J].人民长江.1993.24(6):44-47
钟登华，周钧平等. 碾压混凝土施工运输方案选择专家系统[J].水利水电技术. 1997.28(2):42-45
糜莺英. 展望专家系统在水利工程施工中的应用[J]. 武汉水利电力学院学报. 1990(4):73-76
武波,马玉祥编著.专家系统[M].北京理工大学出版社.2001
李鹏波, 张金槐. 仿真可信性的研究综合[J]. 计算机仿真. 2000,17(4):12-14
刘舒燕, 杨克俭, 王少梅. 系统仿真可信性评估理念与方法[J]. 武汉理工大学学报. 2002,24(5):98-101
Robert G. Sargent, Validation of simulation models, Proceedings of the 1979 Winter Simulation Conference, 497-503
朱光熙，徐世志. 缆机浇筑混凝土坝的计算机模拟技术研究[J].水利学报.198,5(9):62-71.
刘东海. 工程可视化辅助设计理论方法及其应用[D]. 天津大学博士学位论文.2002
唐泽圣. 三维数据场可视化[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社,1999
混凝土拱坝施工全过程动态可视化仿真与优化研究. 天大与西北院. 2003,3
混凝土坝施工全过程三维动态可视化仿真研究. 天大与昆明院. 2001,12
糯扎渡水电站可行性研究阶段. 勘测设计大纲. 国电公司昆明院. 2000,8
冯允成，吕春莲编. 随机网络及其应用[M]. 北京航空学院出版社，1987
Zhong Denghua，Zhang Weibo，Li Jingru，et al. Study on Dynamic Visual Simulation System for Complex Construction processes，The Sixth International Conference for Young Computer Scientists[A], 2001:429-433
张伟, 王行仁. 仿真可信度模糊评判[J]. 系统仿真学报. 2001,13(4):473-475
徐迪. 基于相似理论的系统仿真可信性分析[J]. 系统工程理论与实践.2001(4):49-52.
翁永红,谢红忠. 水工混凝土工程施工实时动态仿真[J].人民长江.2001.32(10):20-22.
John W.Leonard: Plant and Procedure Concepts for Rapid Construction of Concrete Dams. 11th International Congress on large Dams. June,1973.
D.H.Bassgen: New Ideas for More Rapid and Economical Construction of Concrete Dams. 11th International congress on large Dams. June ,1973.
Jack, W.Hilf and Merlin D. Copen: Economic Factors in the Design and Construction of Concrete Dams. 11th International Congress On Large Dams. June,1973.
荩垆编著. 实用模糊数学. 北京：科学技术文献出版社，1989：45—227.
李德仁著. 地理信息系统导论[M]. 北京: 测会出版社, 1993.
L.J.Rosenblum. Research issues in scientific visualization IEEE Computer Graphic and Application,1994,14(2):61-63.
Jack P.C. Kleijnen. Five-Stage Procedure for the Evaluation of Simulation Models Through Statistical Techniques. Proceedings of the 1996 Winter Simulation Conference. 248-254
Ali Touran. Facilitating Simulation Model Development for Construction Engineers. Proceedings of the 1992 Winter Simulation Conference. 1278-1284
John Seydel. Simulation Model for Competitive Bidding In Construction. Proceedings of the 1994 Winter Simulation Conference. 1439-1442
Averill M. Law, Michael G. McComas. How to Build Valid and Credible Simulation Models. Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference. 22-29
Vineet R. Kamat., Julio C. Martinez. 3D Visualization of Simulation of Construction Operations. Proceedings of the 2000 Winter Simulation Conference . 1933-1937
王可定. 计算机模拟及其应用[M]. 东南大学出版社, 1997
熊光楞. 系统仿真的应用领域及应用要求[J]. 系统仿真学报.1990,(3).2-6
张郭军. 面向对象的程序设计方法在C++中的实现[J]. 渭南师范学院学院. 2001(3):45-47.
魏华梁,单家元,李针武. 建模与仿真过程及模型VV＆A[J].计算机仿真.2001.18(1):7-10.
文传源. 系统仿真学科与仿真系统技术[J].系统仿真学报.1992,4(3):1-8
钟登华,皮钧.施工导流方案决策专家系统[J].天津大学学报.1995,28(5):687-690
柴立和等. 相似理论的新视角探索[J]. 自然杂志.2000,22(3).-168-170
周美丽著. 相似学[M]. 北京:中国科学技术出版社 .1993.
周美立,王浣尘. 相似系统的分析与度量[J].系统工程.1996.14(4):1-6.
李鹏波, 张士冰等. 关于仿真可信性的度量[J].计算机仿真.2001.17(1):19-21.
肖斌. 计算机仿真系统的可信度评估[J]. 计算机仿真.2000.17(4):18:20.
柳世考,刘兴堂.一种有效评估大型复杂仿真系统可信度的新方法[J]. 系统仿真学报.2001.13.(5):666-669.
杨湘龙，王飞，冯允成. 仿真优化理论与方法综述[J].计算机仿真.2000,17(5):1-5
柳世考等.大型复杂仿真系统相似性模糊综合评判[J].计算机仿真. 2001.18(4):1-5.
林青. 关于仿真系统建模的探讨[J].计算机仿真.2000,17(6):11-12,30
长江三峡混凝土坝浇筑方案优化研究. 天津大学水利系. 1988
朱光熙,苑克论. 门,塔机-栈桥浇筑混凝土坝施工过程的计算机模拟[J].水利水电技术.1990,(6):43-47
周钧平,朱光熙. 碾压混凝土坝施工方案设计优选[J]. 红水
河.1999,18(1):16-20
王仁超,钟登华.高碾压混凝土坝施工过程仿真研究[J].水力发电学报.1995,(1):25-27
王仁超,邱世明.基于OOM的混凝土坝浇筑施工模拟系统[J].水利水电技术.1999,30(12):49-53
钟登华,胡程顺.复杂工程系统可视化仿真建模方法与应用[J].系统仿真学报.2002,14(7):839-843
钟登华,郑家祥等.大型地下洞群施工系统仿真[J].水利学报.2001,(9):86-91
钟登华,刘东海.基于GIS的施工导流管理决策支持系统[J].水力发电.2001,(1):56-59
龙滩水电站混凝土重力坝和混凝土面板坝施工系统仿真研究专题报告. 中南院与天津大学. 1988.8