摘要
当前以贸易自由化为主要内容的经济全球化,对各国的经济增长和社会发展产生了重要影响。经济全球化的发展、区域经济合作的加深以及知识经济的推进对新世纪世界经济的影响具大,国际贸易、投资与生产的变化成为世界经济发展的晴雨表。纵观世界经济,任何一个谋求自身发展和增进本国国民财富的政府,都试图利用对外贸易趋利避害来发展本国经济。贸易战略及政策成为一国国内战略及政策的重要补充对促进经济增长及竞争力提升起到了至关重要的作用。自凯恩斯打破传统宏观经济学中充分就业假设后,贸易理论界在20世纪80年代,对于发达国家“需求逆转”现象、产业空洞化现象以及20世纪90年代拉美国家贸易——收入悖论的研究,使贸易对劳动力市场影响效应的分析成为国际经济学学科中的新兴问题之一。自此,国际贸易对就业及收入分配效应问题的研究成为当前贸易理论界的前沿和热点问题,与此同时它又对一国贸易政策实践具有重要的现实意义。
中国作为一个发展中人口大国,伴随着经济的高速发展,一方面城镇居民失业率从1980年的541.5万人上升到2007年的800万人,2007年约有2亿农村低技能劳动力待业;同时中国的基尼系数也由1980年的0.23上升到2007年的0.48;另一方面中国的进出口贸易总额从1980年的381.4亿美元上升到2007年的17606.9亿美元,年均增长约27%,并成为世界第三大贸易国。贸易的发展是否是中国就业和收入分配变化的主要原因?贸易对中国劳动力市场的影响究竟有哪些?本文从国际贸易影响就业、工资以及劳动力需求弹性三个方面对上述问题做出回答。
本文包括八个部分。导言部分介绍了文章的研究背景、研究目的、研究方法及创新;第一章为文献综述,分别从理论和实证两个方面梳理贸易影响劳动力市场的相关文献,在理论文献部分按照国际贸易理论的发展轨迹整理,在实证部分按照国际贸易影响劳动力市场的三种不同途径进行整理;第二章到第六章是文章的实证研究部分,第二章作为实证研究的铺陈从国内生产总值核算角度运用中国工业部门面板数据测算了国内需求和贸易对就业的影响,以便对内需和外需的就业创造效应有一个直观了解;然后在第三、四、五章分别利用中国工业部门面板数据按照国际贸易对劳动力市场工资收入分配、就业和劳动力需求弹性三个层面的影响测算了国际贸易的工资、就业差异化和就业风险效应;第六章作为实证研究的扩展,从中间品贸易角度测算了贸易对工业部门全要素生产率及工资的影响;最后一部分是全文研究的归纳总结以及未来研究方向的展望。
基于以上研究本文得到了以下几点主要结论:第一,贸易特别是出口的就业扩张效应仍是现阶段促进就业的主要动力,但国内需求特别是对非贸易品的需求是未来扩大就业的潜力来源;第二,贸易提高了初等教育水平劳动力工资收入,降低了中等教育水平劳动力工资收入,同时提高高等教育水平劳动力在高技术、中高技术和中低技术产业中的工资,降低其在低技术产业工资;第三,就业除与劳动力成本密切相关外,还受到众多宏观经济因素的影响,贸易及贸易保护政策对不同技术水平工业部门就业分配有明显差异,其中对高技术产业就业影响最显著;第四,贸易和汇率指标对劳动力需求弹性具有非常显著的影响,同时它们主要是通过改变劳动力与其他生产要素之间的替代效应来对劳动力需求弹性产生作用,而通过改变产品需求价格弹性的规模效应则起到次要作用。进口贸易自由化会提高劳动力需求弹性,但是当综合考虑出口贸易与实际有效汇率因素时,前者对劳动力市场的负面影响会得到抵消,最终贸易开放的净影响表现为降低劳动力就业风险。第五,外包和外商直接投资显著促进了工业部门全要素生产率及工资水平提高,同时扩大了国内熟练与非熟练劳动力工资差距。
本文的研究创新主要包括:第一,按照贸易理论发展阶段对国际贸易与劳动力市场关系问题的研究框架进行梳理,并对贸易影响劳动力市场的三种途径进行了总结,明确了该课题在国际贸易体系中的地位、已取得的成果、研究热点及争议点;第二,按照产业技术水平和劳动力受教育年限分别对工业部门和劳动力进行了细分,在构建数据库的基础上对国际贸易影响劳动力就业、收入分配及劳动力弹性的效果进行经验检验;第三,不仅关注传统意义上贸易对就业量与工资水平方面的影响,而且强调了贸易对就业与收入风险等隐蔽性问题的影响,通过深入测算贸易对劳动力需求弹性在工业部门、地区及劳动力受教育水平三个方面的影响对上述问题进行实证检验;第四,从中间品贸易角度出发,利用行业面板数据测算外包影响工业部门全要素生产率及工资的效果。
The economic globalization including trade liberalization as main part makes important influence on countries' economic growth and social development. The economic globalization developing, area economic cooperation deepening and knowledge economy advancing have enormous influence on world economy. The variation of international trade, investment and production reflect world economy development. Taking a panoramic view of the world economy, any government to achieve self-development and increase national wealth is trying to use trade to develop their economies. Trade strategy and policy become important supplement to domestic strategy and policy, which can promote economy growth and country competitiveness. After Keynes broke the hypothesis of full employment in macroeconomics, trade theoretical field's analysis on developed countries' "Demand-Reverse" and Industrial Inanition in the 1980s and on the Latin American countries' trade-income paradox in the 1990s, makes the study about trade's influence on labor market becoming one of rising topics in international economics subject. Since then the research of international trade's effect to employment and income distribution becomes advancing and hot issue in current trade theoretical field. Also it has realistic meaning to trade policy exercise.
China as a developing great population nation, under economics rapid development, has showed two points: the first one, urban unemployment rate rose from 5.415 million in 1980 to 8 million in 2007, about 0.2 billion of rural unskilled labor in job-waiting. Chinese Gini coefficient rose from 0.23 in 1980 to 0.48 in 2007. The Other point, the total amount of Chinese import and export trade rose from USD dollar 38.14 billion in 1980 to 176.069 billion in 2007, with average increase of 27% per year. China had become the third big trading nation in the world. Is it the main reason of Chinese employment and income distribution variation that trade development? What influence of trade on Chinese labor market? This article gives the answers from the view of international trade effecting employment, salary and labor demand elasticity.
The paper is organized as follows. Section 1 is preamble, introducing research background, purpose, approach and innovation; Chapter 1 presents literature overview, in this section I unscramble the relevant papers about trade effecting labor market from both theoretical and empirical aspects. I collate the literature according to international trade development track in the theory part and according to the three different ways of international trade effecting labor market in the empirical part. Chapter 2 to 6 of the article are empirical analysis. The starting point is to estimate the influence of domestic demand and trade on employment from GDP accounting view, which presents in Chapter 2 as an expatiation in order to get intuitive understanding about domestic demand and overseas market demand influence on employment creation effect. In chapter 3,4 and 5, employing the Chinese industry panel data during 1997-2006 and fixed-effect model, the paper aims to study the impact of international trade on the wage distribution, employment and labor demand elasticity, based on which I measure the effect of international trade on employment and wage differential. Chapter 6 as extended empirical model, I study the influence of trade on industry total factors productivity and wage from intermediate goods trade view. Conclusions and directions for further research are given in chapter 7.
Based on the above study, the paper gets several conclusions:
First, trade especially the employment multiplier effect of export is the major impetus to improve employment at the present stage. Additionally, domestic demand especially demand for non-trade commodities is a potential source of job enlargement.
Second, trade raises the wage of labor with elementary education level, decreases the salary of labor with secondary education level and raises the salary of labor with higher education level in high technology, medium-high technology and medium technology industries.
Third, besides closely related to labor cost, employment is also affected by many macroeconomic factors. Trade and trade-protection policy have significant difference in employment distribution on industrial sector with different technical levels, especially on the employment in higher technology industry.
Forth, trade and exchange rate indicators shed a profound impact on the labour demand elasticity, and the causality is primarily taken through the substitution effect between labour and alternative production factors, while the scale effect of changing product demand elasticity is only secondary. Import liberalization will make labor demand curve more elastic, nevertheless when considering additional openness variables such as exports and real effective exchange rate, the negative impact of imports on the labor market will be offset, and ultimately the net effect of openness destines to reduce employment risk in the Chinese industry.
Fifth, outsourcing and foreign direct investment have significantly promoted industry total factors productivity and raise the average wage. Nevertheless, outsourcing and foreign direct investment expanded the wage gap between skilled labor and unskilled labor.
The contributions of this article include:
First, in accordance with the trade theory development stage, I unscramble the theory framework about connection research of international trade with labor market, and summarize the trade effects labor market in three ways. Then it is clear that the topic's position in international trade, acquired results, research hot and controversial issues; Second, according to level of industrial technology and labor length of education enjoyed, I subdivide industry segments and labor. Based on the database, we make empirical tests about international trade effecting employment, income distribution and labor elasticity; Third, the article not only concerns the influence of trade on employment and salary in traditional sense, but also emphasizes the impact of trade on concealed question about employment and income risk. The paper deeply measures trade's influence on labor demand elasticity from industry, educational and regional perspectives to study above questions; Forth, by using industry panel date, from the view of intermediate input trade the article study the impact of outsourcing and related FDI on the change of total factors productivity, average wage and factor income distribution.
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