摘要
中国是世界茶叶的原产地,是产茶大国。全国有近亿人从事茶叶生产,年茶叶产业产值可达百亿元。但不是茶叶强国。归因是茶叶质量较差,企业竞争力弱,阻碍茶叶企业发展的因素很多,缺少资金是阻碍茶叶企业发展的关键,但是不能忽视的是,总体上茶叶企业的信用不高,通过调查发现近五年来高达43.18%的企业有违约记录,高违约率阻碍了茶叶企业的融资,制约了企业的发展,同时也扰乱了金融市场秩序。因此从银行视角研究茶叶企业整体信用情况、影响茶叶企业信用的因素显得尤为迫切,这不仅仅关系降低银行信贷风险,促进信贷良性发展,也关系着信贷资金能否顺利投入茶叶产业及整个茶叶产业的前景。本研究首先在界定茶叶企业、信用风险、理性人等概念的基础上,选取茶叶企业主特征、茶叶企业自身特性、金融机构因素、非正规融资因素及宏观环境等方面因素对影响福建茶叶企业信用风险的因素进行理论分析和统计描述。从茶叶企业层面通过参与式调查收集数据,建立实证分析模型,应用Probit模型分析影响福建茶叶企业信用风险的的显著因素;实证结果表明:茶叶企业主特征、茶叶企业自身特性、金融机构因素、非正规融资因素及宏观环境中的企业主行业管理年限、企业经营时间、企业性质、企业类型、企业财务状况、企业信用等级、担保形式、非正规融资风险利率、国家金融环境等因素对福建省茶叶企业的信用风险的影响较大。通过计量定性实证出影响福建茶叶企业信用风险的显著因素。依据影响福建茶叶企业信用风险的显著因素,借助层次分析法,依据建立指标全面性、重点性、科学性、针对性、相关性、可操作性、公正性、合法性等原则构建茶叶企业信用风险评价体系。通过构建茶叶企业信用风险评价体系及评分数据,可以看出433家茶叶企业中,有195家茶叶企业的得分在60分以下,这些企业信用程度一般,偿债的能力也一般。经营状况波动非常大,对企业履行相关合同的能力有非常大影响,违约风险很高。因此,可以看出茶叶企业存在较大的信用风险的问题,应该引起高度注意。基于企业的历史数据进行测试和评价,建立茶叶企业信用风险预警模型。采用“绿、黄、橙、红、黑”五种颜色反映风险程度、区分风险因素,五种颜色分别代表“低风险、较低风险、中等风险、较高风险、高风险”,并建立分层次渠道的风险处理机制。其中,绿灯区表示信贷情况安全,低风险。黄灯区表示信贷情况比较安全,但存在发生概率较小的风险。橙灯区表示信贷情况有一定风险,应引起重视。红灯区表示信贷情况存在较大风险,须采取相应措施。黑灯区表示信贷情况存在严重风险,亟须采取紧急措施。最后,提出政府要加大宏观调节力度、茶叶协会应发挥其协调作用、茶叶企业要加强自身信用建设等措施提高企业信用。
China is the world's tea country of origin which is the largest tea-producing country, but not strong country of tea. The main reason the competition of tea enterprises is weak. There many factors to hinder the development of tea enterprises and lack of funding is the key to impede the development of enterprises of tea but the credit of whole tea business is not high which is can not be overlooked. The resent five years of survey data reflect that up to 43.18% of the enterprises have the related contract records, so it is urgent to research the credit of tea enterprises from the respect of bank, it is not only has the relationship between bank credit industry, but also about the entire tea industry's prospects. This study is first based on defining the concept of tea enterprises, credit risk, the concept of rationality, etc, and then does theoretical analysis on the factors affect the Fujian tea company credit risk by selecting the characteristics of tea enterprises owners, tea enterprises, financial institutions, non-formal institutions and macro-environmental factors.The paper collected data and making descriptive statistics analysis and set empirical analysis model through participatory surveys. It does analysis on the corporate credit risk in Fujian tea significant factor though the Probit statistical analysis.And then, we can get the empirical results that characteristics of tea enterprises owners, tea company's own characteristics, financial institutions factors, non-formal financial factors and macroeconomic environment of the years of business owner’management, the time of enterprise operate, business properties, business type, financial status, corporate credit rating, secured forms, informal financing the lending rate, the country's financial and environmental factors take great effect on the Fujian tea business credit risk. Through the measurement of qualitative research analyze Fujian tea significant corporate credit risk factors.Based on the significant factor whict affect the credit risk of Fujian tea enterprises, the paper use the method of AHP to build the principles of corporate credit risk evaluation system according to the principles of comprehensive, focusing on nature, science, relevance, relevance, feasibility, fairness, legitimacy and so on.By rating data, we can see that there are 195 tea companies get the score less 60 in 433 tea companies and credit rating and debt service ability of these companies is in general. And there’s fluctuations in operating conditions is very large which has a enormous influence on the ability of enterprises to fulfill the contract, and the risk of default is very high.Therefore, we can see that there is a big credit risk of tea companies, it should have aroused great attention.The paper do testing and evaluation based on historical data to establish credit risk early warning model of tea enterprises. And takes up the five colors of yellow, orange, red, black, to reflect the degree of risk and distinguish risk factors. The five colors represents the" low-risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk, high-risk ". Then the paper establish the sub-levels channels management mechanisms.Among them, the green light district said that credit conditions are safe, low-risk. Yellow light district shows credit conditions relatively safe, but there is a smaller probability of risk. Orange light district saids that credit conditions have a certain risk, attention should be paid.Red-light district credit conditions shows that there is a big risk to take corresponding measures. Black light District shows that there are serious risks of credit conditions and urgent measures should be urgent taken. Finally, the paper put some advices from the respect of government to strengthen macro-regulation efforts, tea associations should play its coordinating role, tea enterprises should strengthen their own credit-building measures to improve enterprise credit.
引文
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