摘要
增长、就业和物价是宏观经济的目标变量,也是宏观经济运行的结果变量,它们之间的传导机制构成了宏观经济关系。典型的宏观经济关系是经济周期理论所揭示的“特征事实”,代表一般性的经济周期波动规律;相反,非典型的宏观经济关系与“特征事实”不一致,具有超越一般规律的特性。中国的宏观经济关系具有明显的非典型性。改革开放以来,经济高速增长,但是就业增长缓慢,出现了“高增长低就业”状况;并且自20世纪90年代后期以来,物价持续低迷,与经济增长速度不协调,形成物价超周期现象。非独中国如此,高增长低就业和物价超周期性是当前世界经济的一个普遍现象。因此,如何解释这些非典型的宏观经济现象,就成为一个值得深思的问题。
增长理论和周期理论探索了典型宏观经济关系的规律性,但对非典型宏观经济关系的解释无能为力,更不用说存在一种同时解释两种宏观经济关系的理论。于是本文构造了技术进步的就业效应理论,从解释非典型宏观经济现象入手,进而解释典型宏观经济现象,以弥补现有理论与重大经济现象之间的裂痕。
根据技术进步的广义定义和“索洛余值”法,我们测算出中国1978——2005年间的TFP,并运用协整和格兰杰因果检验法,实证检验了技术进步与GDP增长率、就业弹性之间的关系,发现技术进步是造成中国“高增长低就业”的主要原因。这为后文提出了一个问题:技术进步如何造成“高增长低就业”。对这个问题的回答,引发了技术进步的就业效应理论的构建。
立足于劳动力市场,从劳动供给和劳动需求两个方面分别考察技术进步对就业水平的影响。由于技术进步对劳动供给具有确定性的增加效应,所以,技术进步对就业水平的作用决定于其对劳动需求的不确定性影响。从劳动需求方面考察技术进步对就业水平的影响,我们定义了技术进步的就业总效应,它包括就业损失效应和就业创造效应。
就业损失效应是指,技术水平提高和技术进步增速减少劳动需求,它表现为两个方面:一是技术进步提高劳动生产率,在一定的生产规模下减少了就业岗位、降低了劳动需求;二是技术进步同时提高资本生产率和劳动生产率,形成不同偏向的技术进步,导致生产要素的替代,要素替代的结果是劳动需求下降。就业创造效应是指,技术进步通过有关途径创造就业机会,增加就业岗位,从而增加劳动需求的一种机制和效果。技术进步的就业创造效应是通过技术进步扩大生产规模和扩大经济范围的渠道而实现。
技术进步的就业创造效应和就业损失效应经常不相等,并且是动态变化的,因而技术进步的就业总效应存在三种状态:正效应、负效应和零和效应。
从劳动力市场延伸到产品市场,进一步剥离出影响劳动需求的其他宏观经济变量。我们发现,生产规模是决定劳动需求的最基本的宏观变量,并且劳动需求随着生产规模扩大而增加(缩小而减少),生产规模对劳动需求具有确定性影响。
综合考察两个市场,从劳动需求的角度构造出技术进步的就业效应理论。生产规模是决定劳动需求的基本力量,技术进步的就业总效应叠加在生产规模的就业效应之上对社会就业量产生作用,由于生产规模的就业效应是确定性的,所以最终社会就业量随着技术进步的就业总效应变化而变化。我们将这种叠加在生产规模的就业效应之上的技术进步的就业效应的分析框架,称之为技术进步的就业效应理论。
技术进步的就业效应理论可以有效地解释宏观经济关系的变动。根据技术进步的就业效应理论,生产规模、技术进步和产品市场的供求格局是决定宏观经济关系变动的基本变量,它们的不同组合形成不同的宏观经济关系。
生产规模扩大会加速经济增长,并且还会增加就业量;技术水平提高会促进经济增长,但对就业产生不确定性影响。因而生产规模扩大和技术水平提高必定提高经济增长速度,但与之相随的可能是高就业,也可能是低就业,即出现高增长高就业或高增长低就业。由就业水平决定的工资是构成物价的主要成本因素,叠加在工资之上的决定物价的力量是市场供求因素。因此,如果劳动市场低就业和产品市场受供给约束,那么低就业、低工资与高物价并存;如果劳动市场高就业和产品市场受需求约束,那么低就业、低工资与低物价并存。相反,如果劳动市场高就业和产品市场受需求约束,那么高就业、高工资与高物价并存;如果劳动市场高就业和产品市场受供给约束,那么高就业、高工资与低物价并存。
本文还基于中国的数据,测算了技术进步的就业总效应,测算结果显示,技术进步造成就业净损失,平均每年减少就业量3000——3500万,抵消了生产规模扩大而增加的就业,所以“高增长”与“低就业”并存;在就业增加缓慢,工资水平较低的情况下,产品市场出现严重供过于求的格局,因而物价一直低迷。由此形成了“高增长、低就业与低物价”的非典型宏观经济现象。
Growth, employment and the price level are macro economy target variables, and also result variables about macro economy movement. Their conduction mechanism constitutes the macro economy relation. The typical macro economy relation is“the characteristic fact”, which is described by the economy cycle theories, representing the general economy cycle motion regulation; Contrary, non-typical macro economy relation is disaccord with“the characteristic fact”, bearing the characteristic of surmount the general law. The macro economy relation in China is obvious of non-typical model. After opening and reforming, GDP grows rapidly, but the employment grows slowly. Since 90's of 20 centuries, the price level is low, and it is not consistent with the economy cycle. In fact, the high growth and low employment and low price level, is a worldwide phenomenon. Therefore, how to explain these non-typical macro economy phenomenon, become a question deserving to study further.
The growth theory and the cycle theory explore the regulation of the typical macro economy relation, but they do not explain the non- typical macro economy relation, say nothing of to explain two kinds of macro economy relation. Hence this paper constructed a theory about the technology progress employment effect. It can explain two kinds of macro economy phenomenon, so makes up the fracture between the existing theories and the important economy phenomenon.
According to the generalized definition and“Solow Surplur”method, we have calculated the TFP of China from 1978 to 2005, and have examinated the relations between the technology progress and GDP growth rate, the employment flexibility making use of the cointegrating test and Granger test of causality. We discovered that the technology progress is the main result of“high increase and low employment”in China.This put forward a question for the next text: how does the technology progress result in“high increase and low employment”. To answer this question, we build a theory about the technology progress employment effect.
Based on labor market, we reviewed the influence of technology progress on the level of employment from the labor supply and labor demand. Because the influence of technology progress on the labor supply is ascertain, the employment level is decided by labor demand. So we defined the aggregate employment effect, it includes employment creation effect and employment loss effect.
The technology progress employment loss effect indicates the technology progress lowers the labor demand. The employment loss effect performances two aspects: the technology progress increases the rate of Labor production, and reduces employment post and lowers the labor demand under the certain production scale. The technology progress raises the rate of capital production and labor production at the same time, and form different technology bias, and capital substitute labor. So labor demand is descend. The technology progress employment creation effect means, technology progress creates employment opportunities through a relevant path, and increase employment post and labor demand. It is realization by extension production scale and extension economy scope.
The employment creation effect and employment loss effect are usually not equal, and they are dynamic, as a result the technology progress employment aggregate effect exist three kinds of states: Positive effect, negative effect and zero effect. Extending to the product market from the labor market, we further remove another macro economy variable which influences labor demand. We discovered that production scale is the basic macro economy variable deciding labor demand. The influence of production scale on labor demand is ascertained, and labor demand changes with production scale expanding and shrinking.
Comprehensive the influence factors of two markets, we build the technology employment effect theory from labor demand. The production scale is the basic factor decided labor demand, but the influence is ascertained. So the equilibrium employment level is decided by the technology progress employment aggregate effect. We call this kind of analytical frame technology progress employment effect theory.
The technology progress employment effect theory can effectively explain the changes of the macro economy relations. According to the theory about the technology progress employment effect, production scale, the technology progress and the situation of product market are the basic power determined the changes of the macro economy relations. Their different combinations result in different macro economy relations.
The production scale extension will accelerate the economy growth, and will still increase the employment; the technology level exaltation will promote economy increase, but produces the indetermination to the employment. As a result the production scale extension and the technology level exaltations raise the economy growth speed necessarily, but with it mutually may be a high employment, or likely to be low employment, Namely high growth high employment or high growth low employment. The wage decided by the employment level is a main cost factor that constitutes the price level. The product market equilibrium state decides the price level by imposing the wages on. Therefore, if the labor market low employment and the product market be subjected to supply stipulation, there are low employment, low wages and high price level; If the labor market high employment and the product market is controlled by product demand, there are low employment, low wages and low price level. Contrary, if the labor market high employment and the product market is controlled by product demand, there are high employment, high wages and high price level; If the labor market high employment and the product market be subjected to supply stipulation, there are high employment, high wages and low price level. So the technology progress employment effect theory has explained the typical and non- typical macro economy phenomenon.
We calculate the aggregate effect of technology progress employment according to the data of China, the result showing, technology progress result in employment net loss, reducing employment 30,000,000 to 35,000,000 averages every year, offsetting the raised employments by production scale extension. So the employment increases slowly when the GDP grows fast. Under the circumstance of the employment increases slowly and the wage level is low, the product market appears the situation of supply exceeds demand, as a result the price level is always overcast. So the non-typical macro economy phenomenon“high growth, low employment with low price level”has been shaped.
引文
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