摘要
中国金融业全面对外开放后,行业面临着愈为激烈的竞争。银行业处于经济活动的中枢环节,是一个重要的产业部门,它的稳定与繁荣直接关系到国家经济整体运行的稳定与绩效。而中国银行业由于形成和发展过程的特殊性,一直存在着高垄断低效率的问题,这极大的影响了银行业的整体竞争实力,因此改革势在必行。
国际研究经验表明,银行业市场结构与银行体系的稳定性有着密不可分的关系。然而至于他们之间到底是正相关还是负相关,学术界却至今没有达成一致结论。分析中国银行业市场结构以及银行业稳定性的变迁,探寻二者之间关系,对于监管部门采取措施,从宏观层面维护银行系统的稳定有着一定的现实意义。
该文以产业组织理论和银行危机理论为指导,采用定量研究和定性研究相结合的方法,通过比较与归纳,研究我国银行业的市场结构与稳定性,以及两者之间的关系。首先,从市场结构入手,通过市场结构诸多指标的实证分析,判断出我国银行业的市场类型正处于低寡头垄断型阶段,并正向垄断竞争型阶段过渡；其次,采用了综合指标分析法研究了我国银行体系的稳定性状况,并对稳定性状况的成因进行了分析；再次,运用计量模型分析了我国银行业市场结构与稳定性的关系,得出我国银行业集中的市场结构有利于银行体系稳定的结论。最后,在前文分析的基础上提出了银行稳定下改善我国银行业市场结构的政策建议。
该文最终的结论是,从长期来看,银行稳定与银行绩效存在互补关系,银行绩效的提高将从根本上增加银行体系的稳定性。因此我国市场结构改革的方向应该是从行政性垄断走向经济性集中,强调引入竞争机制的重要性,具体举措包括深化国有商业银行产权制度和组织结构变革,鼓励中小银行发展,推动金融产品创新,放松管制等,以此来建立一个有效集中的银行市场结构。
The financial industry will face more drastic competition after it opens to the outside all around. The finance is the centre link of economic activity, as such important industrial sector, the stability and prosperity of banking industry has a direct impact on the development of the whole national economy. Due to the particularity on the process of form and development of China's banking industry, there are still has the problem of higher concentration and lower efficiency which has weaken the bank competition tremendously, so it is very necessary to reform.
International research experience shows that the banking market structure and the stability of the banking system have a close relationship. But as the correlation is positive or negative, the academic community has so far no consensus conclusions. Analysis of the changes in Chinese banking market structure and the stability of the banking sector, and to explore the relationship between the two, has some practical significance for the regulatory authorities to take measures to maintain the stability of the banking system at the macro level
This paper are guided by the industry organization theory and bank crisis theory, used mixed methods, with comparison and induction, to research on the market structure, the stability, and the relationship between them of China's commercial banking industry. Firstly, it starts from the market structure through empirical analysis by using several indices, drawing the conclusion that the market structure is at a low type of oligopoly stage and in the process of going to monopolistic competition stage. Secondly, we use the comprehensive index study to analyze the condition of the stability of the banking system, and analysis of the causes of the situation; thirdly, use a econometric model to analysis the relationship between the banking market structure and stability, obtained the conclusion that China's concentrated market structure is conducive to stability of the banking system. Finally, proposed the recommendations to improve the China's banking structure under the premise of bank stability.
This final conclusion is that in the long run, their has a complementary relationship.Between the bank stability and bank performance, the increase of bank performance will fundamentally improve the stability of the banking system. So we suggest that the destination of reform is to transform administrational monopoly to economic concentration. We emphasize on establishing the efficient market structure by introducing the competitive mechanism. At last, we put forward some proposals including deepening the reform of property right system and organization structure of state-owned commercial banks, developing the small banks, driving the innovation of financial products and loosening strict controls and so on.
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