摘要
2004-2007年,连续四个中央“一号文件”的出台标志着新一届政府对“三农”问题的高度重视。工业化对于“三农”问题的解决乃至一个国家经济腾飞的重要性,已经被大多数西方发达国家的历史经验和发展道路所证实。在实现工业化和现代化过程中,劳动力从传统部门(如传统农业)向现代部门(如现代工业和服务业)转移,既是世界各国都曾经或必将面对的一种普遍现象,也是其实现“现代经济增长”的必由之路。农村劳动力转移既是我国实现工业化必须面对的重大课题,也是解决我国“三农”问题的重要途径之一。
本文是关于农村剩余劳动力转移的理论研究和实证分析,具体地说,是为描述和解释劳动力转移的内在机理、根本动因及其影响因素提供一个理论框架和分析方法,并运用中国的宏观数据和微观数据对理论模型给予一定的检验和论证。从论文的基本框架结构和研究方法来说,本文从新古典主义方法、结构主义方法和行为主义方法三个角度出发,运用局部均衡、一般均衡、静态均衡、动态均衡等现代经济学分析模式,建立了关于劳动力转移的理论模型并做出了实证分析,从而较全面地研究了影响劳动力转移的微观因素和宏观因素。特别是运用动态递归、博弈论、计量分析等前沿理论和方法,把传统农村经济问题和现代经济学前沿思想结合起来,使内生增长思想、农村劳动力转移、农村经济发展有机地联系在一起,对传统的劳动力转移理论进行了有益的补充。具体来说,论文可以分为五个部分:
第一部分是论文的第1-3章,是全文的理论基础和现实基础。在阐述了所研究问题的背景和缘由、理论意义和现实意义的基础上,本部分首先回顾了国内外关于劳动力转移的基本理论及研究现状,特别是重点回顾了关于劳动力转移机理、动因和障碍的研究。然后分析了我国劳动力转移的历史、现状与发展趋势,并归纳了我国农村剩余劳动力转移的特点和存在的主要问题。
第二部分是论文的第4-5章,是基于新古典主义方法的理论模型和实证分析。本部分首先运用新古典主义研究方法,在理性的农民个体收益或效用最大化的假设条件下,从现代经济学局部均衡和博弈论的视角构建了劳动力转移机理、动因与障碍的微观模型。然后运用计量经济学方法,利用全国农村固定观察点办公室的调查数据和笔者的田野调查数据,建立了多个非线形PROBIT模型,验证了理论模型及其结论的基本正确性,特别是实证分析了绝对收入、收入差距、相对贫困、就业半径、就业风险、城镇适应性、技能性收益、农业税费、务工费用、户籍制度、就业机会、社会信息网络等一系列变量与农村剩余劳动力转移之间的关系。
第三部分是论文的第6-7章,是基于结构主义研究方法的理论模型和实证分析。本部分首先在二元经济的假设条件下,建立了劳动力转移机理、动因与障碍的静态和动态局部均衡模型以及一般均衡模型。然后运用计量经济学方法,利用《中国统计年鉴》相关数据,建立了多个多元线形回归模型,验证了理论模型及其结论的基本正确性,特别是实证分析了经济增长、产业结构、农业要素投入与技术进步、工业要素投入与技术进步等一系列变量与农村剩余劳动力转移之间的关系。
第四部分是论文的第8章,是基于行为主义研究方法的理论研究与实证分析。本部分首先是运用计量经济学方法,利用全国农村固定观察点办公室的调查数据,建立了一个总括性的PROBIT模型,分析了农户家庭特征(家庭类型、是否干部家庭户等)与个人特征(性别、年龄等)对劳动力转移的影响。然后是运用微观描述性统计方法,利用笔者的田野调查数据,进一步分析了年龄、性别、文化程度、区位差异等个人特征对劳动力转移的动因、障碍、途径、收入、费用和风险等的影响。
第五部分是论文的第9章,是全文的结束和总结部分。本部分得出了全文的主要结论,并提出一系列促进我国农村剩余劳动力转移的策略及政策性建议,主要包括:完善劳动力市场,改革户籍制度、健全社会保障,加强农村教育和卫生投入,改革土地制度,加大农业资金投入、完善农村金融市场等。论文最后指出了研究的不足之处以及需要进一步研究的问题和方向。
本文的研究发现:(1)我国农村剩余劳动力转移的历史轨迹波动较大,特别是改革开放前后在特点、影响因素、表现形式等方面存在较大的差异。(2)农村剩余劳动力转移的基本机理是市场经济的资源(要素)配置原理,根本动因是城乡(或农业与非农业)收入差距,根本障碍则是人力资本积累的缺乏和制度制约。(3)农民工是理性的经济人,他们按照收益最大化或效用最大化原则来决定自己的转移行为。但影响其转移的因素很多,既有经济因素,也有非经济因素;既有物质因素,也有精神因素。其中包括务工费用和收入、城镇生活收益、技能性收益、户籍制度、社会歧视、就业环境、城镇生活适应性、就业风险等。(4)经济总体增长以及各产业经济增长都对我国劳动力转移也有显著的拉动作用。特别是产业资本投入和工业技术进步都对农业就业比重的下降作用显著。而较多的农村人口数量和较少的耕地资源禀赋是促进我国农村劳动力转移的原始动力和内在根本原因。(5)在进城动因和障碍、进城途径、进城费用与收入以及就业风险等方面,不同个人特征和家庭特征的农民工既表现出一些共同的趋势或规律,也表现出一定的差异。(6)农民外出务工和农村非农就业作为不同的劳动力转移形式,二者的影响因素既有相同之处,也存在一些显著的差异。
基于上述研究,本文的创新点有:(1)从研究体系来看,论文创新性地把新古典主义、结构主义和行为主义三种研究方法结合起来,较全面地构建了劳动力转移机理、动因与障碍的一个理论体系。该理论体系为从社会结构、转移者的个体选择、转移者的个体特征等多个方面较系统地研究劳动力转移问题建立了一个理论框架。(2)在新古典主义研究方法中,一方面,原有的研究成果大都仅仅以个人为研究对象,而本文采用新家庭经济学的思路,同时把个人和家庭作为研究对象,特别是研究了家庭特征对劳动力转移的影响。这也和新迁移学说认为迁移是家庭决策的结果而非个人决策的结果的理论相一致,是对STARK新迁移学说的一种验证和分析,而STARK的新迁移学说是当今最重要的劳动力转移研究的新进展之一。另一方面,原有的研究成果大都仅仅考虑物质因素对转移者转移决策的影响,而本文运用一手调查资料,创新性地采用替代变量的方法,研究了就业风险、城镇适应性、技能性收益、户籍制度、就业机会、社会信息网络、政治地位等无形的精神因素对转移者转移决策的影响。由于这些因素的难以衡量性,数据的取得十分困难,所以该研究在国内外并不多见。另外,利用连续时间的搜寻模型和不完全信息动态博弈的方法来研究劳动力转移问题,也是一种新的尝试和创新。(3)在结构主义研究方法中,经典的二元经济理论模型是静态的,本文采用动态递归方法,从动态均衡的角度重新分析了二元经济模型。分析创新性地发现,农村劳动力转移是存在一个均衡的最优转移途径的,随着经济增长、特别是工业技术进步,农业部门的劳动力将持续沿着最优路径从传统农业部门转移到现代工业部门。但当农村劳动力转移到了一定阶段时,农业就业比重将相对稳定在一个固定的水平。此时,无论经济如何增长,农业就业比重也不会再大幅减少,本文创新性地把这种现象定义为“农村劳动力转移陷阱”。另外,利用岭回归来研究经济增长和劳动力转移问题,也是一种新的尝试和创新。(4)在理论模型和实证分析的基础上,得出了一系列创新性的结论和政策建议。例如:①我国农村劳动力转移的动因发生了质的嬗变,从原来被动的依靠农村推力嬗变到主动的依靠城镇拉力;进城的主要障碍因素,也从农村拉力嬗变到城镇推力。②是否农业户口对农村非农就业的作用并不显著,而对农民外出务工的作用显著为负。因此,如果户籍制度改革确有难处,那么我国的政策取向就应该是大力推进农村的非农产业。③2004年以来,中央政府先后出台的减免农业税、粮食直接补贴等一系列惠农政策,对农民外出务工的作用并不明显。但这一系列惠农政策却对于农村非农就业有显著影响。这一结果也从一个侧面反映了中央近年来的农业新政策的确对发展农业生产有一定的积极作用。
With publication of four continuous“No.1 Documents”over the period of 2004 and 2007, we find that our new government is paying more and more emphasis on issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers. From the way of development and the experiences in industrialized countries, it has been proved that industrialization is an important factor that affects issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers and even a nation’s economic development. For each country, it is commonly and unavoidable that workforce will transfer from traditional sectors (such as agricultural industry) to modern sectors (such as modern industry and services). This is also an only way to realize“modern economy growth”. Rural labor migration is not only a crucial issue we must face on the way to industrialization but also a basic solution to solve issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers in China.
This thesis is theoretical and empirical analysis. It explores the theory of surplus rural labor migration. To be specific, it tries to provide a frame and methods to describe and explain the internal mechanism, basic motivation and obstacles to labor migration in China. Both macro-data and micro-data in China are used to support and prove theories and the frame in the paper. This thesis adopts some modern economic pattern such as Partial Equilibrium, General Equilibrium, static equilibrium and dynamic equilibrium to establish theoretical frame of labor migration from the approaches of neoclassicism, structuralism and behaviorism respectively. And a further empirical analysis has been undertaken to completely study both micro-factors and macro-factors affected labor migration. Especially, by using Dynamic Recursion, Game theory and Econometric analysis, it combines traditional rural economic questions with the concepts of modern economics perfectly so that it further combines internal economic growth with rural labor migration and rural economic development systematically, which improve the labor migration theory as a significant complement. This thesis includes four parts:
The first part of this thesis includes three chapters which provide the theoretical and practical basis for the whole thesis. It mainly discusses the relevant background situation, the reason why we need study this issue and its theoretical and practical significance. This part firstly reviews all the fundamental theories and current studies abroad and at home. It especially reviewed the mechanism, motivations and obstacles to labor migration. Then it analyzed the history, current situation and trend of labor migration in China, and summarized its features and the main problems existed.
The second part is from Chapter 4 to Chapter 5, which illustrates some theoretical models and empirical study based on neoclassicism methods. Maximize reasonable farmers’income is the hypothesis in this part. Based on this hypothesis, the writer builds micro-model of labor migration mechanism, motivations and obstacles from the views of Partial Equilibrium of modern economics and Game Theories. And then more than one Probit models have been constructed by using the methods of Econometrics. The data used in this part comes from the stable survey offices in countryside and the results of surveys undertaken in rural area by the writer. These Probit models set up by the writer support the theoretical model and the thesis’s findings, especially empirically analyzed the relationship between a series of variables (absolute income, income gap, relative poverty, employment distance, employ risks, adapt in the town, technical skills obtained, agricultural tax, labor cost, census register system, employment opportunities, and social information network, etc.) and surplus rural labors migration in rural area.
The third part is the Chapter 6 and Chapter 7, which has established some theoretical models. It also an empirical analysis from the view of structuralism approaches. Under the hypothesis of Dual-economy, this part builds static and dynamic Partial Equilibrium model and General Equilibrium model about labor migration mechanism, motivations and obstacles. And then it uses methods of Econometrics and the relevant data from China Statistics Yearbook to set up multi-line regressive models, which proves theoretical model and the conclusion. In particular, it empirically proved the relationship between a series of variables (economic growth, industry structures, agricultural factors input and technology improvement, industry factors input and technology development, etc.) and surplus rural labor migration.
The following part is Chapter 8, which is the theoretical study and empirical analysis based on behaviorism methods. This part firstly establishes a general PROBIT model by using Econometrics methods. Data used in this part comes from the stable survey offices in rural area. It mainly analyzes how farmer household features (household type and whether the family member is an official or not) and individual features (gender, age and so on) effect labor migration. Using micro-description methods, it further analyzes how the variables like age, gender, education background, regional differences and other individual features take impact on labor migration (including motivations, obstacles, ways, income, cost and risky, etc.)
This last part is Chapter 9, which is conclusion and summary. It draws the conclusions of the whole thesis, and proposes a series of suggestions on how to promote surplus rural labor migration in our country. They mainly include that enhance small-size town establishment, improve job market, reform census registration, ensure social security, develop education in rural area, invest more healthcare support, reform farming land system, enlarge agricultural investment, and improve rural financial market, etc. Finally, it tells the weak sides of the study and questions a further study was needed.
Findings of thesis: (1) Surplus rural labor migration in China has experienced a tortuous development. Especially before and after reform and opening-up, its differences in different periods mainly reflected from its features, effect factors, current forms, etc. (2) The basic mechanism of surplus rural labor migration is the mechanism of marketing economic resources (elements) allocation. And the basic cause is the income gap between non-agricultural citizen and agricultural person; the basic hurdle is lack of human resources and the restraint of system. (3) Migrant worker is likened to be reasonable economic individual, which always decide their migration according to the principle of income and utility maxims. However there are many factors that will affect their migration which is including both economic and non-economic elements, both substantial and spiritual factors. For example, cost used for finding the job, income, other benefits from life itself in the town, technical skills experienced, census registrations system, employment environment, adaptation of city life, and employment risks, etc. (4) Total economy growth and economic growth in different sectors, especially the fund invested and technology progress in every industry, have obviously promoted labor migration in China. however, the basic and internal causes stimulate labor migration is a great amount of population in rural area compared with the comparative less cultivating land. (5) In terms of factors affect labor migration in rural area like motivations, obstacles, way, cost, income and employment risks, different individuals with different background features have some common characteristics as well some different points. (6) Migrant labors and those who deal with non-agricultural business in rural area are regarded as two different kinds of migration forms, whose effective factors also have some common and different features.
Based on the study above, the innovations include: (1) In terms of studying system of this thesis, it combines neoclassicism, structuralism and behaviorism methods together to comprehensively build up a theoretical system about rural labor migration’s mechanism, motivation and obstacles in China. It systematically sets up a theoretical frame which is from the following aspects: social structure, individual’s options, individual’s features, etc. (2) Regarding the method of neoclassicism, on the one hand, the former studies mainly adopted individual as their subject, while in this thesis, from the view of new household economics, it uses both individual and family as subjects. It especially studies how family features affect labor migration, which are in accord with new migration theory which holds the view that labor migration is a decision of the whole family but not individual alone. On the other hand, the former studies only take substantial factors into consideration. Instead, by using first-hand survey, this thesis creatively applies alternative variables method to study some spiritual factors that affect labor migration. For example, employment risks, adaptation in the city, adapt in the town, technical skills obtained, census register system, employment opportunities, social information network, and social status. Because these factors are difficult to measure, it is hard to collect these data, which may explain why such kinds of studies are seldom found at home and abroad. Moreover, it is a new and creative attempt to study labor migration by using continuous job searching models and partial information dynamic game theory. (3) Among methods of structuralism, this thesis uses dynamic recursive methods and analyzes Dual-economics from dynamic equilibrium instead of typical static Dual-economics model. The new findings are: there must be an equilibrium optimum rout during labor migration. Along with the economic growth, especially industrial technology progress, labor force in agricultural sector will transferred from traditional industrial department to modern industrial sectors along this optimum rout. However, agricultural employment distribution will remain relative stable when rural labor migration develops in a certain period. At this time, no mater how economic develops, agricultural employment will not decrease dramatically, which is defined firstly as“Rural Labor Migration Trap”by the writer in this thesis. Moreover, it is a new and creative attempt to study the ralitionship between economic growth in different sectors and labor migration by using ridge regression. (4) Based on theoretical and empirical analysis, the writer draws a series creative conclusion and meanwhile, proposes some suggestions. For instance, (1) the motivation leading to rural labor migration experiences an essential change, which is from passive push from country to active pull from the town; at the same time, the main obstacles switch from pull from rural area to push from the town. (2) Whether they are countryside dweller or not does not take an obvious impact on rural labor force employed in non-agricultural sectors, instead, it negatively affects rural labor migration from countryside to urban area. Therefore, if there are some difficulties to reform census registration system, our policy should firstly pay more attention to promote non-agricultural industry in rural area. (3)Since 2004, a series of policies like agricultural tax-free, crops directly subsidy which will benefit farmers appeared publicly one after another. These impacts on rural labor migration from countryside to urban area are not evitable. However, these series of policies take obvious effects on promoting farmers employed in non-agricultural industry in rural area. This finding indirectly indicates those new policies designed by our government take a positive effect on developing agricultural production.
引文
① 本章部分内容发表于《经济社会体制比较》2006 年第 4 期和《广西经济干部管理学院》学报 2007 年第 1期。
① 本章部分内容发表于《经济研究》2006 年第 4 期以及“Frontiers of Economics in China”2007 年第 2 期。
①该方程的具体推导见 Gary D. Hansen;Edward C.Prescott,Malthus to Solow.The American Economic Review,2002,(4):1205-1217.
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