淮南暖冬事件及汛期降水响应分析
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摘要
为研究淮南1956—2017年暖冬事件变化特征及与当年汛期降水的关系,更好地服务当地冬季农业生产、防灾减灾及汛期降水预测等工作,笔者利用淮南观测站1956—2017年冬季气温资料,采用线性趋势分析等统计方法进行气候诊断研究,并依据《GB/T 21983—2008暖冬等级》,分析暖冬气候特征、成因以及与汛期降水量的关系。结果表明:1956—2017年淮南冬季平均气温呈明显上升趋势,尤其是1996年以后更为显著,1991年发生突变;平均最高气温和平均最低气温都呈现为波动性上升趋势,平均最低气温对冬季变暖贡献最大;暖冬指数呈上升趋势,20世纪90年代之前仅出现过1次弱暖冬,20世纪90年代以后出现13次暖冬,7次为强暖冬;西太平洋副高偏强偏西、亚洲冬季盛行纬向风和冷空气次数少、势力弱以及El Nino的发生,可能是造成淮南暖冬的主要因素。研究发现,强暖冬或强冷冬的年份里,当年汛期降水量容易偏多,对于汛期降水预测有一定的参考价值。
The study aims at the change characteristics of warm winter events and their relationship with precipitation in flood season in Huainan from 1956 to 2017, for better serving local agricultural production in winter, disaster prevention and mitigation, and prediction of precipitation in flood season. Based on the winter temperature data from Huainan observation station during 1956-2017, we analyzed the climate characteristics,causes and their relationship with precipitation in flood season of warm winter by using the statistical methods,such as linear trend analysis, for climate diagnositic study according to GB/T 21983-2008 Warm Winter Grade.The results showed that: the trend of average temperature in winter increased significantly in Huainan from1956 to 2017, especially obvious since 1996, and the mutation happened in 1991; the mean maximum and minimum temperature showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the mean minimum temperature contributed most to winter warming; the warm winter index showed upward trend, there were 13 warm winters and 7 strong warm winters after 1990 s, but only one weak warm winter before 1990 s; the main factors which caused warm winter in Huainan might be the strengthened subtropical high in the western Pacific ocean, and the outbreak of El Nino event, and the prevalence of zonal winds and the weaken air at the Asia in winter. It is found that: the precipitation in flood season is easy to be more in the year of strong warm winter or cold winter, which has certain reference to the precipitation forecast in flood season.
The study aims at the change characteristics of warm winter events and their relationship with precipitation in flood season in Huainan from 1956 to 2017, for better serving local agricultural production in winter, disaster prevention and mitigation, and prediction of precipitation in flood season. Based on the winter temperature data from Huainan observation station during 1956-2017, we analyzed the climate characteristics,causes and their relationship with precipitation in flood season of warm winter by using the statistical methods,such as linear trend analysis, for climate diagnositic study according to GB/T 21983-2008 Warm Winter Grade.The results showed that: the trend of average temperature in winter increased significantly in Huainan from1956 to 2017, especially obvious since 1996, and the mutation happened in 1991; the mean maximum and minimum temperature showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the mean minimum temperature contributed most to winter warming; the warm winter index showed upward trend, there were 13 warm winters and 7 strong warm winters after 1990 s, but only one weak warm winter before 1990 s; the main factors which caused warm winter in Huainan might be the strengthened subtropical high in the western Pacific ocean, and the outbreak of El Nino event, and the prevalence of zonal winds and the weaken air at the Asia in winter. It is found that: the precipitation in flood season is easy to be more in the year of strong warm winter or cold winter, which has certain reference to the precipitation forecast in flood season.
引文
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[18]王绍武.中国冷冬的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(2):68-72.
[19]张自银,龚道溢,郭栋,等.我国南方冬季异常低温和异常降水事件分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(9):899-912.
[20]高涛,关彦如,乌兰,等.夏季北大西洋海温变化对内蒙古东北部冷暖冬的预测意义[J].内蒙古气象,2017(4):3-7.
[21]孙林海,赵振国.我国暖冬气候及其成因分析[J].气象,2004,30(12):57-60.
[2]王凌,张强,陈峪,等.1956—2005年中国暖冬和冬季温度变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(1):26-30.
[3]陈峪,任国玉,王凌,等.近56年我国暖冬气候事件变化[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):539-545.
[4] You Qinglong, Kang Shichang, Wu Yanhong, et al. Climate change over the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin During 1961-2005[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2007,17(4):409-420.
[5]杜军,杨志刚,石磊,等.近50年西藏冷暖冬的气候变化特征[J].地理学报,2011,66(7):885-894.
[6]杨志刚,杜军,袁雷,等.1971—2010年西藏怒江流域冷暖冬的时空变化分析[J].冰川冻土,2012,34(4):775-782.
[7]陈倩雯,假拉,肖天贵.近50年青藏高原冷暖冬气候特征研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,2016,31(6):607-613.
[8]李会霞,史兴民.近50a来黄土高原地区暖冬现象的气候特征[J].干旱区研究,2017,34(1):136-143.
[9]贺皓,罗慧,高红燕,等.陕西冷暖冬年的标准及平均环流特征分析[J].高原气象,2007,26(4):759-764.
[10]程建刚,解明恩.近50年云南区域气候变化特征分析[J]..地理科学进展,2008,27(5):19-26.
[11]姚俊英,王晓明,于宏敏.黑龙江省“冷”“暖”冬时空分布特征[J].黑龙江气象,2009,26(1):10-12.
[12]林昕,邱洪华.福建省暖冬气候特征分析[J].亚热带资源与环境学报,2014,9(2):32-38.
[13]张磊,潘婕.近51年山东临沂市冷暖冬气候特征及其成因分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(29):239-245.
[14]杜吴鹏,缪启龙.暖冬的气象成因及对农林业的影响[J].安徽农业科学,2005,33(3):471-472.
[15]龚道溢,王绍武.近百年我国的异常暖冬与冷冬[J].灾害学,1996,14(2):63-68.
[16]陈海山,孙照渤,闵锦忠.欧亚大陆冬季积雪异常与东亚冬季风及中国冬季气温的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,1999,22(4):609-615.
[17]赵振国,蒋伯仁,陈国珍,等.ENSO事件对中国气候的可能影响[J].山东气象,2000,20(1):4-12.
[18]王绍武.中国冷冬的气候特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(2):68-72.
[19]张自银,龚道溢,郭栋,等.我国南方冬季异常低温和异常降水事件分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(9):899-912.
[20]高涛,关彦如,乌兰,等.夏季北大西洋海温变化对内蒙古东北部冷暖冬的预测意义[J].内蒙古气象,2017(4):3-7.
[21]孙林海,赵振国.我国暖冬气候及其成因分析[J].气象,2004,30(12):57-60.